The Weekend Update
posted on March 09, 2019 by the OEW group in honor of Anthony Caldaro
The SPX gapped up on Monday to start the week at 2815 and immediately hit the high for the week at 2817. The market then began to sell off and hit 2768 by lunch before climbing higher into 2793. Tuesday was a more stable day, trading down to 2783 in the morning session then a gradual climb up to 2796 by close. Then on Wednesday the selloff continued as price moved down to 2770 and on Thursday selling saw Mondays low taken out, 2742 was hit early on, bounced back up to 2761 by lunch, back down to 2739 in the afternoon and a bounce into 2750 at close. Friday gapped down and hit 2722 early in the session, bounced up to 2736, returned to test 2723 before finishing the week at 2743
For the week, the SPX/Dow lost 2.2% while the NAS/NDX lost 2.0%.
On the economic front, we saw uptick for ISM Services, New Home Sales, and Jobless Claims. On the downtick the Nonfarm had a big miss, 20k against the forecast of 181k
Next week’s report will be highlighted by durable goods, CPI/PPI and retail sales
The ECRI WLI was up this week from -4.2 to -3.7
LONG TERM: uptrend strong probability
We continue to track the foreign markets as we have for the past several months. The Nifty (India) advanced this week while most other markets were in sell mode. The Dax (German) and other European indices were lower along with the BVSP (Brazil), Nikkei (Japan) and Kospi (Korea)
In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 is now underway.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
Since what we believe is the Major 2 low, we count a possible 5 waves up complete. Minute i at 2520, Minute ii at 2444, Minute iii at 2739, Minute iv at 2682 and Minute v at 2817. We have been producing a Weekend Report for the OEW group and mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Minute v looked to be subdividing and that did indeed happen. We label this subdivision as Micro 1 at 2762, Micro 2 at 2731, Micro 3 at 2813, Micro 4 at 2775 and Micro 5 at 2817. The action possibly wrapped up Minor 1 on Monday and we believe Minor 2 has been underway since. Several of criteria we were looking at to help confirm have now been met, like a break of Micro 4 at 2775 and largest pullback of the UT from 2347. This data suggests that Minor 2 is underway and likely to confirm a DT in the coming weeks.
The action this week saw Minor 1 tentatively complete at the previously mentioned 2815 area of resistance which had capped both Int B and Minor B of Int A.
On the squiggle chart this week we have three waves down, 2817>2768>2796>2722 so far. When this completes it will likely be Minute A, we expect to see a Minute B rally before another decline for Minute C to complete Minor 2.
Short term support is at SPX 2731 and the 2656 pivots with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. There is currently positive divergence on the 60 minute chart with the daily chart now oversold.
Asian markets were down on the week and some lost as much as 2.5%.
European markets were down as well and lost 1.5%.
The DJ World index lost 2%, and the NYSE lost 2.2%.
Bonds are in a downtrend but gained 1.4%.
Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 0.5%.
Gold is in a downtrend but ended flat%.
Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 1.9%.
The USD is in an uptrend and gained 0.8%.
Best wishes to all
Thanks goes to the OEW Group for pulling this together.
We love you Dad.