Opened

I’ve opened the comments back up for those of you who’ve been asking.

I’ve been compiling a list of those of you who are interested in my father’s private teachings. If you are interested and have yet to contact me you can JohnsonOEW@gmail.com. Lessons will resume in the next month or two in a slightly different format but, still his original updated teachings.

 

Love only yourself, or Love yourself and all others.

It’s a choice. Make the choice!

 

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341 Responses to Opened

  1. jobjas says:

    SPX squiggle count – plain traditional EW analysis
    https://jobjas.wordpress.com/

  2. phil1247 says:

    JUNE FUTURES / kiss principle

    bearish below 2755 . ( extension short .618 resistance )

    below there ……………………………………… 2716 target
    above there …………………………………….. 2788 is risk to shorts

  3. aahmichael says:

    As a follow-up to my post from Thursday morning, since SPX closed below 2769 yesterday, then that put in a weekly 3BR. It’s identical to the weekly 3BR that occurred at the October top, except that last week’s bar not only bearishly engulfed the prior week’s bar, it also bearishly engulfed the weekly bar before that one too. Since the 2347-2817 rally was a zig-zag, then there is nothing about the current count that prevents the market from taking out 2347 before it takes out 2817.

    aahmichael says:
    March 7, 2019 at 5:40 am
    …As I previously mentioned, the rally from 2347 is corrective. It’s impossible to count it as an impulse wave, therefore, even if it were to get back to news highs, I wouldn’t call it a new bull market. Short term, though, everything is falling into place for the top to have already occurred last Sunday night in the futures, and Monday morning in the cash. Whenever futures gap up on a Sunday open on fake trade news put out by the government, it’s an automatic short. That strategy has never failed, as the gap has filled quickly 100% of the time. Last Sunday’s gap was perfect, though, because 2819 was this week’s R1, and it also was the 20% level for the entire rally wave. Those 2 measurements nailed the top tick. (As I pointed out before, bear market rallies frequently hit the 20% level, and this one was no different.) Then, 2 hours into Monday’s action, a 60min 3BR occurred, followed by a Daily 3BR at Tuesday’s close. If Friday closes below 2769, then that will put in a Weekly 3BR as well. These are like dominoes falling one after another, and, at this point, the 3/4 high looks identical to the 12/3 high…

    • aahmichael says:

      Of all of the great advancements that Glen Neely has made in counting waves, his best contribution is his simplest: That is the rule that no part of any wave 3, no matter the degree, can violate the 0-2 trendline of same degree. The logic behind this rule is that wave 3s always thrust in the direction of the impulse, rather than drift sideways. That rule invalidates your count as your green 3 violates the 0-2 trendline. In addition to that, the internal subdivisions of your wave 3 (in other words, iii of 3) also violate that rule. I have never seen an actual impulse wave that violated the rule.

    • how do you post a chart here? i want to post mine but have no idea how. and looking to the charts posted here, well my help here is needed 🙂

  4. lml25 says:

    Here’s a brief Ira and Al Brooks recap:
    Ira sees the weekly charts for SPX as a higher high and higher low.Above the 18 week ma with an outside week down,meaning,if the high of the previous week is taken out (2814ish),a bear trap is set.Further rally if that happens.”Doesn’t mean it will happen,but that’s the setup,”says Ira.
    If the market continues to pullback,support is at 2672.He doesn’t want to see the pattern of Hh/Hl broken.
    Brooks has been looking for a pullback for three weeks.His theory is the first pullback will be bought(because the rally was so strong) and pushed to 2800 again(or a little above).Then a further drop.
    Looks to me–at least on Friday’s action,DJT bounced at extremely important support.Now it’s easy.We stay above 9996 and its bullish.Below that–and more emphatically 9950–we can count on more selling.GL all.

    • lml25 says:

      One more thing,the transports are one day from bearishly embedding.Either PPT will prevent that from happening Monday or it DOES happen–leading to the possibility of more more downside action.Watching that as well.The way they bounced today,makes me think PPT will push the Trannies higher Monday to escape a bearish stochastic situation,but we’ll see.

  5. Lee x says:

    Good morning and Good weekend to all
    Keep up the good work and good vibes all !

  6. torehund says:

    From Sids blog, predicting the rise of commodities into 2021. Agreeable to me, notice the hurst cycle too, could be on time.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Tore the 3.5—-42 month cycle is a standard business and pig iron cycle. It was identified years ago by the Foundation of The Study of Cycles.

      • scottycj1 says:

        Also dovetails with the weather forecast from my book. Could be crop failures in 20 and 21….at the very least super expensive grain prices. If the govt removes grain prices from the inflation numbers….Social Security wont keep pace with rising food prices

        • torehund says:

          Agree Scotty, inflation due to demand destruction 🙂 Seems one can not buy a commodity etf anylonger, what goes up is then removed from the index then, so the banksters can keep shorting the etfs. But consumers will be squeezed as we see happening in France. Scam will hit the fan with full throttle as we proceede forwards.

  7. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ’

  8. elmer510 says:

    SPX down about 90 points from recent top or 3,3%. Most possible it’s Minor 2 – alternative Minute IV.

  9. The SPY has rallied (as slow as molasses) back up to the S1 at 273.72 with 75 minutes left. Will it punch through and make a run into the gap…. or simply once again run into resistance?

    Oil stocks taking a beating today.

  10. lml25 says:

    That’s why I stressed that DJT couldn’t just do a quick drop under 10k to guarantee more selling.Certain entities like to prop up equities at very important levels–after a nascent move under that level.Something to watch in the days ahead.They may try to rally them now(or not).Later all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Carson Worth (CNBC) suggested 2598 or so, but thinks a retest of the lows more likely…cites too fast a rise from the bottom. (also credit, Libor bears watching again)
      I suggested to Freddie a week or so ago, if we did go back down to 2340, we have quite a trading range……
      The number sequences are not clean, suggesting a washout….we shall see….
      Good stuff LML.

  11. sixpack says:

    Let’s not lose sight of OEW, After all, that’s what this sight is all about and that’s what Tony would want. I can’t share the details, but there was a reversal up in January, and so now we’ll be watching to see if we get a reversal down with the current weakness. If so, then we will start to be able to label the waves. I do recommend that you take the class so that you know what to look for.

    Best regards,

    • gary leibowitz says:

      80% of the time we retrace all the back to the lows. Recession is now on the table as trade wars take its toll. China deal is so illusive that the street is finally realizing it might not happen. We are itching to go after EU, India, Turkey and lots of other nations on trade. This on the heels of the worse trade imbalance ever. The FED gave us a strong clue when the stopped their rate hike program. But like all street assumptions they interpret anything they can as positive The dramatic fall in China’s trade has a HUGE ripple affect.

      • sixpack says:

        For all practical purposes I hope you are not correct. Every time I read your posts I wanna go jump off a bridge. But nobody knows for sure right? This here and now is the test. Will it roll over and fall out of bed as more bad news comes to light, or will this selloff holdup by retracing some part of the previous up wave and then again start to head higher? Don’t know yet. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens for now. Glad to hear you are making money on your trades.

      • torehund says:

        Yes but then there will be pent up demand building for China goods, then they pop the champagne 🙂 Sunny side up…

    • soulsurfer says:

      thank you, just trying to do my best in taming this beast and by sharing some insights help others to stay as much on the right side of the trade as possible.

  12. I bought a nice chunk of EXAS shares this morning at the S1 at $82.52

    Now Green!
    🙂

  13. Economy appears to be seriously decelerating in Q1.

    Cant wait to see the “update” on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is, given that it was at 0.5% GDP for Q1 BEFORE today’s big miss in Non-Farm Payroll jobs.

  14. lml25 says:

    DJT needs to hold (and so far,has)10,000.A substantial break(say 9900)would be a neon light indicator flashing,”possible retest”.PPT may have other plans,of course.Trump was already out today trying to cushion the drop.Later all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …we are setting ourselves up for a washout…timing difficult….TVIX ..
      UGAZ up to 36.73, 37.10, 37.47 then 55…..DYODD….

  15. SP500, appears to have madea significant price top.. 3/8..

  16. stockop says:

    imo while the headline job number is bad, the wage gains were impressive and the housing starts in January were too. Unemployment rate fell.

    today is futures rollover day. from the march contract to the june. i dont know if my assumption is right, so if someone can explain it better to someone who doesnt trade futures it would be much appreciated. theoretically if we were to rally here, that would mean a huge amount of institutions/traders either went short at the dead lows of the move or went long? it seems like the kind of situation where we could get a vertical move upwards.

    the overnight piece by the WSJ on China and the US not being close to a deal being done had zero effect on price. while it can be assumed the information was already released and somewhat priced in, i still find it extremely odd that there was not even a small dump on its release. see a lot of the giddy bulls from only two days ago who never saw this coming talking about the end of minor 1 and minor 2 beginning. i will be covering some more this morning at open and think this is the perfect setup to leave no bear standing if we eek out another high on this move from the december lows.

    • gary leibowitz says:

      The FED reversing it’s decision on gradual rat hikes was the TELL for me. The trade war is definitely showing results on both sides and it is not good. The whole drop from October was over the anticipated result of a protracted trade war and it is here. China talks will never get resolved based on the parameters we set. Now going after India and soon the EU. Trump waited for the China deal to implement tariffs on the EU over autos. IF that day comes (attacking the EU) you can expect to see the largest drop ever in a one day plunge.

      With world economies sliding, political turmoil coming to a head I can bet with confidence that all of March will be decidedly down. Possible test of recent lows.

    • You are mistaken StockOp.
      Rollover day occurred yesterday.
      It’s always on a Thursday. And always 8 days before the contract expires.

      I

      • stockop says:

        and i was looking at March 2018. thanks for pointing that out. no idea what i was thinking

        • No problem.

          Typically, institutions that are involved in stock-index arbitrage and who are carrying ES futures along with the actual underlying stocks in the SPX, typically figure out when to roll from month to month by how the “spread” between March/June is trading.

          Given that the ES settles for cash, they can either allow the futures to settle for cash vs their S&P500 stocks, or roll from March to June. But they usually do this when the “spread” tells them to. ie.) is advantageous to do so.

          • stockop says:

            you’re like a different person when you decide to drop these knowledge bombs on me. thank you.

            what would be an advantageous spread? or is this all settled by the various firms “black boxes” (i.e. constant running formulas that calculate arbitrage between futures and the underlying basket of S&P securities)? wondering myself it is has anything to do with the premium of the next contract up? sounds like a lot of misdirection potentially this close to expiration. someone could buy/short either the underlying securities or futures themselves in huge quantities based on what you’re saying as a result of just rolling out. not trying to imply manipulation of any sort, just that there is potential for large volume activity to be solely the result of hedging/arbitrage. been a couple of 5 minute time periods this week that seem to come out of nowhere that is not normal in my experience. it could very well be the nature of this week. any idea if there is a way to track them? I assume it would require trying to replicate the formulas they have running.

            sounds like this also travels into quad witching next week as i am sure there are some of those players using options to hedge their delta exposure.

            • Yes, it all comes down to basic quantitative models (like Black Scholes for options) that determines whether an institution settles their stock-index arb strategy for cash, or they roll it out to the next month.

              One can keep an eye on the open interest heading into the expiration of the March contract for any clues as to how big of an impact there could potentially be.

              But again, you have to be experienced watching the spread between the two contract months…. and whether or not it is “widening” or “narrowing”.

              • athousandtrees97 says:

                Spread -Mar to June was less than 2.3 when it was in 3rd/4th week of Dec 2018. The narrowest spread coincides with the bottom then. Likewise, when the spread registered figure abv 5.35, ES march was abv 2810 on Monday. One also can pay attention to March Sept spread-via the auto quote on the platform of CME , extreme low vol but interesting to watch who is more desperate. Thusday was abv 10.00, ytd i can get a few pairs done at 9.10 . Both pairs- Mar vs June, Mar vs Sept, spread narrowed, but no serious dump like what we see in Dec 2018. Conclusion: in line with Tony’s OEW analysis-longer term big picture is bullish. Short term/ midterm-up trend will be disturbed by next week settlement

  17. gary leibowitz says:

    No recession here? We have dismal job growth at the peak of earnings growth. World economy slowing and trade wars that finally are seeing the results. the FED gave us a clue, an indication, that this was happening. Changing their position on raising rates was a “TELL”.

    One good thing, this is day 5 of drop. A rebound, no matter how we fall today is likely on Monday.

    We are also approaching the terminal point of a long political battle and the outcome most likely will cause even more CHAOS in the markets. I see no good scenario for March as a whole and a lot of reasons to think it will drop precipitously.

    • elmer510 says:

      You tell everything’s gonna crash all of the time. Remember when you wrote – just wait untill monday…- but monday markets were just fine… Boring to read the same every day!!

  18. mcgcapital says:

    Fxa:

    As you know I’m not a big waver, I see markets as discounted cashflow mechanisms where the cashflows are random walks dependent on future events… so where wave theory becomes inconsistent with that I tend to ignore (I.e. I don’t think markets can be projected ahead of time, as we don’t know future events ahead of time). If what I’m saying doesn’t hold true, and EW was in any way predictive, then all wavers wouldn’t make such a hash of their projections, which they all do from time to time (for the good ones – even TC), and all the time (for the bad ones).

    That said, I can see the psychological rationale behind the 5 wave structure when applied in hindsight, and you can also speculate in real time on what is happening and likely to happen within that framework… for me, 2011-2015 was a wave 3, supported by the fundamentals, wave 4 was 2015-2016 and wave 5 was Feb 2016 – Jan 2018, with delusion that growth was going to pick up and we would be able to grow our way out of the debt problems, finishing with a blow off top. The fact that the US markets went on to make marginal new highs in September is irrelevant, the psychology of the market changed last January as that’s when price stopped acting like a bull market (plus multiple other markets globally topped on that move).

    I also consider all things global given how interconnected things now are. It’s pretty clear to me that Asia and Europe are in recession/heading for one, the US is the strongest region but it flatters to deceive in my view. They just had a massive fiscal stimulus last year, and that has masked the slowdown because running a huge budget deficit was supposed to boost growth above trend and it didn’t, so if you normalise for the boost effect the US is likely slowing just like the rest. Given we’re now 12 months on from the tax cut it will drop out of the YonY% comparisons, so I think the US data is going to slow significantly in H2. Respect your view but for me I see recession across the board, and if it happens, it’s going to trigger all of these background structural issues, and that should be pretty bad for the stock market.

  19. torehund says:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    Looking at $Brent, RSI reading, looks like it could be done churning and ready to retest the 70 level. Such a hike could bring about a tetest of price high at 87 Usd. Lets see…….however we need Shanghai to snout upwards 🙂

  20. gary leibowitz says:

    This was day 4 of the drop. Never saw a reversal on a 4 day slide. Usually 3 or 5 (the fib numbers). Tomorrow should be lower but how low is up for grabs. Caught the drop, sold before the slow grind up today, caught the top today to re-place my Puts. the move was so steady and slow it was a day traders dream. All my gains we used to re-enter Puts.

    • fionamargaret says:

      The Atlas of Finite Groups, group theory, Rubik cubes and repositioning but retaining symmetry….x

  21. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Christine
    Minor 2 may be underway. The Yearly swing completed near the 2825 target. I’m expecting M2 support near the YPP @ 2598. GL
    SPX ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/40BRgUrJ/

  22. tomplata says:

    Aaamichael,
    Very cogent posts, thanks for the insights. I agree completely regarding shorting a Sunday open on fake trade news that is a gap up. Like you I have been tracking this for years and it is always a solid short.

    I am unfamiliar with the term 3BR, could you enlighten me?

    • aahmichael says:

      3BR = 3 bar reversal.
      It’s a 3 bar candle formation that I discovered about 30 years ago. You won’t find it in any candlestick literature.

      At a trading top, it will look like this:
      Bar #1 is an up bar.(green)
      Bar #2 and Bar #3 are down bars. (red)
      The high of either Bar #2 or Bar #3 must be higher than the close of Bar #1.(special exceptions apply in the instance of a gap open)
      The close of Bar #3 must be lower than the open of Bar #1.

      Trading strategy: Sell at close of Bar #3, and place stop 1 tick above the high of either Bar # 2 or Bar #3 (whichever is higher.)
      The inverse occurs at trading bottoms.

      I only use this strategy on 60min bars and Daily bars. It is not meant as a day trading strategy, because you’ll limit your profits in a huge way if you exit at the close.

      • stockop says:

        aahmichael,

        is there any way that wave 1 completed at the lows today? I don’t see why not, however this would imply the Dow truncated its fifth (which i would not expect a slight sign of market strength at the start of a steep downtrend) and the fact that the Nasdaq 100 would have to be a contracting LD and its W3 is the longest so it does not seem viable.

        I reread your post about the possibility of a flat being eliminated if the S&P traded at 2739, which it did. I assume this would eliminate the option because of overlap? It did not overlap by 0.11 points so is that option still on the table? sorry for berating you with questions, i hold a lot of value in your insight. looking like a bunch of nested 1-2s so far based on after hours, just wondering if the above is a viable alternative.

        • aahmichael says:

          There is no chance for a wave 1 to have completed at the lows, because there aren’t 5 waves down from the top. 2796 to 2742 only has 3 waves, so it can’t be an impulse wave by itself. (see my earlier reply to Johnny today) While SPX didn’t overlap 2738.98, all the other indexes did, so the alternate count is eliminated.

          Also, be careful about trying to count squiggles after hours. It’s a waste of time. EW is based on mass psychology, and there aren’t enough participants in the after hours to qualify as mass anything.

          • stockop says:

            thank you for the response! i’ve followed futures long enough to realize it is a folly to derive anything worthwhile from them after hours (usually). this week alone would be enough to prove that to anyone. looked like they were getting sold after AH trading close today, so it was an essence me admitting i am more than likely wrong.

            i feel like an amateur for not cross checking the other indices. that should have been easy for me to eliminate the flat count without asking. however, i fail to see how there are not 5 waves down from the top. I am going to assume this is related to the lack of alternation between wave 2 and 4. from my perspective i see a double zig zag wave 2 and a zigzag wave 4. do you have a different reason for not being able to see 5 down?

            I definitely see the nested 1-2s, just have learned from experience when i get like i did last night, if the move i am anticipating doesn’t happen, its time to run. anecdotal, but throwing it out there. also had a friend who just opened up a brokerage account who was excited enough about his short gains to contact me at 2:53 this afternoon. not sure if this information is of any use to you, just throwing it out there. thanks again for taking the time to share your knowledge with me.

            • aahmichael says:

              Please explain how you count 5 waves down from 2817 to 2742. Just post the end points of each wave, and then I’ll tell you what’s incorrect.

              • stockop says:

                Wave 1: 2767
                Wave 2: 2796
                Wave 3: 2746 (truncated 5 of 3)
                Wave 4: 2761
                Wave 5: 2739

                The internal structure of wave 3 is a mess to count, but we gapped down right where 3 of 3 should have started. the truncated fifth allows the last three hours of Wednesday’s trading session (the 6th) to be a flat instead of a 1-2, 1-2. Clear 5 down for the entire 3 of 3 wave and a zig zag to alternate with the flat to give alternation. thanks again aah. i don’t know where i would be without people like you taking the time out of their day to show me the light.

                • aahmichael says:

                  2796-2746 only has 3 internal waves in it. The same problem exists if you measure it as 2796-2742. Every impulse wave must subdivide by 5, and that wave doesn’t, therefore, it can’t be a wave 3. Also, there will never be a truncated 5 of 3. Ever.

                  • stockop says:

                    Is there data to back up there never being a truncated 5 of 3, or is it just in your experience? Irrelevant and I am going to take your word for it I just want clarification.

                    upon further analyzing it looks like 2796-2742 that you have labeled as 3 waves is 1-2-3, with 4 completing at 2761 and 5 completing at 2739. that would have the whole move down so far as 3 waves, with wave 3 completing today. W3 is longer in time and price than wave 1 so it could theoretically be a large leading expanding diagonal. I now see what you’re saying that since the overlap the odds of it being a wave C are as good as non-existent. I also see that there is not 5 down. What i cannot see is any nested 1-2s anymore. I see below you have a leading diagonal as a valid count, and i think that is the conclusion i have come to myself. seriously thank you for taking the time to work through this with me. i hope i haven’t been too much of a nuisance to you.

                  • stockop says:

                    rereading my post:
                    1) this does not need to be a diagonal

                    2) as you said above, a 5 of 3 never truncates. As of now the Dow is truncated. With the assumption that new lows are not hit in the morning, does that pave the way for this theoretically being a C wave even with the overlap in other indices? I can’t help but think how clean the markets would look if we made another high for this move and were able to count 9 waves up (tho i do not know for sure if the overlap negates it counting as 9 up). the fundamental backdrop reads straight out of a textbook for how wave 5s are supposed to occur as fxa has mentioned below. my sudden desire to be short-term bullish could be the biggest sign its all coming down. however some of the charts today (specifically Boeing which looks to have completed a perfect ABC at the lows today), say we could grind up just like we have for the past two months. to top it off i’ve been disappointed with the lack of real selling volume that i thought would start this thing off.

  23. Alexey Belevitch says:

    the bitcoin crystal ball…

    • Alexey Belevitch says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        Thanks Alexey…nice charts.
        I think we have a washout on the S&P, before it is time to buy…if one is of the mind.
        No, I was not just rambling with my “group theory” mentioning….one of the lads who was at Cambridge (and wrote the “Atlas of Finite Groups”) died a couple of weeks ago, and somehow the symmetry the numbers made today made me reflect on him.
        I remember someone asking me if he was brilliant or homeless…..there are similarities…x

  24. 123 abc says:

    20-MAR-2019: Full Moon & Vernal Equinox

  25. mcgcapital says:

    Does seem like this rally has made everyone convinced we’re going higher medium term. It was massive and difficult to trade if you’re bearish in the market right now.. but everything looks aligned towards resumption of the downside now. Have to say, the Fed are only dovish because they realise things are slowing down. Didn’t hear much talk of crisis response QE/negative rates when we were in a solid uptrend in 2016/17.. and that’s because there was global synchronised growth, and now there isn’t .

    Can’t see any catalysts for new highs tbh.. there’s nothing on the horizon that supports it which is different to 2009-2017. RIP bull market

    • stockop says:

      catalyst to new highs are a certain group of traders who went from bullish to bearish in less than 24 hours. i cant decide if a fifth wave would make more sense, or if we finished a diagonal wave 1 today and we get a second up. futures roll over and big time OPEX next week. would not be surprised to see them grind this up slowly one last time into expiration. don’t see many shorts hanging on if they do. economic data and CB jawboning seems to imply a worsening economy everyday. any type of rally off of the jobs number tomorrow regardless of what it is and i figure the bears will be up in arms. still bearish and short long-term, reigning in my immediate bearishness after todays action. might miss the smash, but don’t like the short side going into tomorrows OPEX and quadruple witching next week. i’ve lost a lot of money trying to play the crapshoot of quad witching week when a trend is not definitively in place.

    • phil1247 says:

      mark

      we are in a series down now
      everything has changed

  26. sixpack says:

    Looks to me like a very nice head and shoulders bottom forming in the stock market. Making the right shoulder now. Maybe the right shoulder has a ways to go yet, but can see it nicely in the Russell and the Transports and many others. Even the S&P and the Dow. If so, and it breaks through the neckline, then basic H&S target would put it up to around 30,500 in the Dow and 3270 in the SPX. Have to wait and see what happens, but this would jive nicely with Tony’s Intermediate 3 of Major 3 of Primary 3. I think that’s where we might be at here in OEW terms. Who’s the OEW guru? Lee maybe. Does that count sound right to you in OEW terms were this to happen?

    Thanks All

  27. johnnymagicmoney says:

    The Ode To Saint Louie Chart Dewey

    Saint Louie Chart Dewey would post
    Hoping his followers reaped most
    He helped with their money
    Even with those who weren’t quite sunny
    And not once did you see Dewey boast

  28. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Ode To The Mad Surfer

    There once was a man with a big heart
    He shared and he helped with his charts
    Adored the big waves
    Elliot ocean his cave
    His pivots precise like a dart

  29. johnnymagicmoney says:

    positive divergence on the hourly’s – could be good for a short bounce

  30. stockop says:

    looks like massive short covering happening in some stocks i follow. looks like they might bounce it into OPEX tomorrow

    • stockop says:

      i will take today. what even a little bout of volatility can do for a trader! i think we bounce and thus exited most of my short-term plays. pretty much expecting the smash i’ve been seeing to happen tonight as a result. at the end of the day, who cares. very happy with today.

  31. johnnymagicmoney says:

    EEM about to break its little support shelf here…………….dollar can’t be helping and considering the Euro and Dragula’s fourteenth all in I can’t imagine it’s going to help China if the dollar breaks out. If EEM really starts to plummet could it be signaling a failed trade deal????

    • aahmichael says:

      I have never believed that a trade deal would ever occur. China has no reason to make a deal with the current president. They can just wait until we have a new president, which puts the current president in a real bind, because he can’t raise tariffs.

      • stockop says:

        politics aside, i am glad to see you’re posting again. while I do not know if the market has officially rolled over, as you can see by my posts last night, today very well could have been a C wave (of the flat scenario you described earlier).

        i hope you will share your count going forward like you did a few months ago. you were on top of the decline from the tippy top in december and its lonely in bear country over here. not a fan of only having traderjoe to compare to. its not that i am anything but extremely thankful for him sharing his knowledge, just feels like confirmation bias at times, or i think his count is wrong and there is no one to discuss/share the alternate with over here. talking mainly about the squiggles here which you are much more apt than i at counting. i find myself violating rules time and time again on smaller timeframes.

        • fxaprendiz says:

          Stockop if I may chime in, while I respect TraderJoe’s knowledge imho he’s totally wrong with his current count, probably due to extreme bearish bias.
          Two things, first he has the 2942-2334 down move as of Minor degree only when it should be labeled at least Intermediate if part of another wave, probably Primary if it’s a standalone wave. Second, he has said Minor wave 1 as part of a diagonal Intermediate wave 1 down, and has mentioned 5 Int waves. That implies at least a wave A of Primary degree, part of a Cycle degree correction.
          I think you may be seeing the impossibility of his count now, with a 20% downswing as only Minor degree for him, a wave A of Primary degree would be +50% and the Cycle wave would be +75%.
          Primary waves are 19-35% and Cycle waves are 35-60%.
          It’s ironic how TraderJoe with all his talk about wave degree violations, can have it so wrong with his own wave degree labeling.
          And imho now is not yet the time for a +50% correction anyway, let alone a 75% move.

          • stockop says:

            fxaprendiz, i do not agree with his current count as I think an LD of this magnitude is a little extreme. I’ve got other reasons for disagreeing, but i think you’re too focused on his labeling of the degrees, which i have not noticed myself. the man is meticulous when it comes to rules, and there is nothing in his current count that violates anything from Frost/Prechter or neely. But yes, i agree using him as the end all bearish wave counter has its limitations as both of us on our own have found our own reasons to question it. as far as the extreme bearish bias, anyone who holds fundamentals close to their heart can’t help but be anything except a doom and gloomer. ECB and PCOB liquidity injections worked when people were panicking and the world was on the verge of collapse. liquidity injections just to prop stock markets up? it may push prices up temporarily and lull people into thinking that the economy isnt as bad as reported, but imo their policy tools are going to stop working sooner or later, and as a bear i think soon is much more likely.

            • mcgcapital says:

              It’s amazing to think that central bankers can’t seem to see that they’re the problem. I think they broke the system in 2016 to be honest, or at least that’s when the consequences started to appear from their constant intervention.

              Nothing about how these markets act is at all normal. Healthy markets generally move in both directions when trending – look at 2009-2015 period, there were lots of pullbacks/corrections in a long term uptrend. Since 2016 we’ve basically alternated between absurdly low realised volatility (2017 was a complete anomaly, unprecedented in the whole history of the data) and panic selling. There’s no middle ground anymore. The last two months have made people forget about how it was in Q4 as the low vol has lulled everyone into a sense of security, and that’s why people are all saying things like ‘it’s just a pullback’. If I was to guess what happens now that this up move has broken, I’d suggest that it will fall much further than most think.

              Eventually what will happen is that the central banks will lose the ability to affect the business cycle through diminishing returns on stimulus. I don’t know if that’s where we’re at already. But it’s clear to me when I look at the ECB that we’ve reached the limits of where they can take things. If rates are already ZIRP or NIRP, you’re basically lending money for free, so if people don’t want to borrow to invest at those rates what more can they do? The problem is too much indebtedness all round, means that everyone is maxed out already and it causes low productivity growth as zombie companies are kept alive by cheap money. Ironically, what they actually need to do to boost growth in the long run is raise rates… this would blow out the weakest links and that’s how a normal credit cycle is supposed to work.

              I expect that eventually, markets are going to lose faith in central bankers and bond yields will spike across the board. At that point, the system will crash and reset.

              • stockop says:

                Yes to everything. I still don’t know where i’d be without your simple comment “its 2018 not 2016”. I wonder just how many people out there are going to wish they had thought for a second that this is not the same environment, central bank jawboning aside. We’ve been on the same page for a while now, so i’m not gonna continue to beat a dead horse, but i believe the realization that we’re in a bear market is going to hit everyone at once one of these days, and it will be a day for the market record books.

              • fxaprendiz says:

                Stockop and MCG, I agree that the fundamentals are not healthy now, but MCG, here’s the thing, waves 5 happen when fundamentals no longer are supportive of higher prices (the wave 4 is the warning), a wave 5 goes up solely on market participants positive sentiment. In that sense that’s why a wave 5 is doomed to eventually fail and give way to a big correction. The 2011-2018 third wave was supported by fundmentals, the coming wave 5 won’t but will happen nonetheless on sentiment alone.

                • stockop says:

                  it sounds like you are describing the current move off the December lows perfectly. one of the reason’s i am hesitant to go the way of a large leading diagonal or a convoluted w-x-y to start the inevitable. one more wave up in the SPX and i count 9. if the tops in already, there are only 7 waves and do not see how your wave 4 ends up playing out. it will take too much time and we are more than likely going to be in a recession by Q3/Q4. I cant find a time in history where the markets did a fifth wave up while in a recession.

                  • fxaprendiz says:

                    An up wave based mostly on positive sentiment without fundamentals backing can be a 5th wave or a B wave within a 4th wave so both options are still on the table.
                    The top of wave B of 4 may not be in yet, hence why I’m watching 2870-90.
                    I’m actually counting on wave 4 lasting very long, compared to wave 2 in the year 2011. W2 was 22 weeks and I expect w4 to be 1.68 to 2 times W2.
                    None of the economic indicators I’m following are signaling a recession this year.
                    As mentioned in my earlier post to the whole blog, nothing has changed in my view exposed some weeks ago. These things of Primary degree and higher take time to play out and that’s why I stopped posting as often as before, as I lost interest in following the smaller waves within W4.
                    I came back to post today only to reaffirm my view, in this time that seems like an inflection point to many buy it seems like more of the same to me.

                    • stockop says:

                      for what its worth i take a lot more interest in your posts now that they’re less frequent. been interested in what you’ve had to say recently and you’ve been nowhere to be found! might i ask what economic indicators you’re following if they aren’t proprietary? its more than the 2 and 10 spread inverting i am sure, but that seems to be the only economic indicator i can find not saying a recession anytime soon.another symptom of CB manipulation and I have about a 95% confidence that it is not going to go off this cycle. it was in my textbooks in college a few years ago. I don’t know how many people can say they learned about the predictive value of the 2-10 spread at 19 from a textbook, but I am going to go on a limb and say not many. artificially low interest rates aside, the signal is so widely known this cycle that I do not believe there is anyway its going to give people the warning signal it has in the past. in my eyes its no different than a crowded trade. someone with more years than i may be able to give some substance to this if I am wrong, but i don’t think teenagers were walking around in 2000/2006 talking about how the yield curve inverting meant a recession was incoming.

  32. fxaprendiz says:

    Nothing has changed much in my SPX view posted some weeks ago. SPX still trading within the 2709-2812 box.

    The way we close today and tomorrow will give clues for the short term direction. Closing above 2750 will keep more immediate upside as possible.

    If SPX still has unfinished business on the upside I’m watching the 2870-90 area as the final stand.

    Overall though, nothing tells me yet that this isn’t still part of a big wave 4 since September.

    • phil1247 says:

      fx

      was just thinking of you yesterday and was going to post about
      big wave 4 but got distracted
      you still look for 2900 area ….correct?

      • fxaprendiz says:

        Little lower, Phil. 2870-90 as mentioned.
        But that’s only one of several possible scenarios, things are still very fluid right now.
        If I had to assign numbers I would say there’s like 60% chance there’s more upside coming, and 40% probability we are done and already in wave C of 4.

        There’s also a third option, that SPX goes under 2650 first then back up to the 2870-90 area, then final leg down.
        This third possibility would wreak the most havoc among both bulls and bears alike.

        I’m keeping my powder dry for the end of wave 4 so I don’t have a horse in this race at the moment.

        • phil1247 says:

          ok
          i thought previously you were looking at low 2900s
          my mistake

          • fxaprendiz says:

            No problem buddy

          • fxaprendiz says:

            Phil I kept thinking why would you think I was expecting now low 2900s.
            I had that area as target but that was months ago, when SPX was bouncing between 2600 and 2800, and never made it to 2900.
            After 2600 broke down and the 2334 was printed I had new Fibonacci levels to work with and new upside targets, hence 2812 now at first, 2870-90 later.
            Hope this helps to clarify things.

  33. Thanks Phil…Looking forward to that

  34. Hi
    DJUSS
    expecting a pullback to 1k area
    2 possible counts,50/50
    https://invst.ly/a6z8s
    https://invst.ly/a6zbn
    https://invst.ly/a7z10
    Ciao

  35. courtesyoftc says:

    The first target wasn’t 2754 it was 2746 (Feb. 14th gap closed ) the second target will be 2710 ( feb.11th gap) and ….2640 and…

  36. elmer510 says:

    SPX down more than 70 points from recent top. Just like we expected, there’s a big chance of Minor II entering the chart. If it’s a ‘normal’ minor wave, we can see a total decline of 4-6%

  37. Lee x says:

    Hey guys can we move on ?
    There was only one awesome dude and that was Tony
    Posting is a choice, choose wisely

    • stockop says:

      apologies Lee to you and everyone else on this blog for my behavior last night. they got me to bite, but i have no one to blame except myself. markets only. you will not have this problem from me going forward.

  38. phil1247 says:

    march fut 2776 good place to rebuy short now
    risk to shorts is still up to 2800 till 2754 target is hit

  39. aahmichael says:

    “Barry Gerdsen says:
    March 6, 2019 at 4:09 pm
    Hi aah – for the short term, what price level above 2800 would (if reached) lead you to conclude that this was a new bull market?”

    Hi Barry. As I previously mentioned, the rally from 2347 is corrective. It’s impossible to count it as an impulse wave, therefore, even if it were to get back to news highs, I wouldn’t call it a new bull market. Short term, though, everything is falling into place for the top to have already occurred last Sunday night in the futures, and Monday morning in the cash. Whenever futures gap up on a Sunday open on fake trade news put out by the government, it’s an automatic short. That strategy has never failed, as the gap has filled quickly 100% of the time. Last Sunday’s gap was perfect, though, because 2819 was this week’s R1, and it also was the 20% level for the entire rally wave. Those 2 measurements nailed the top tick. (As I pointed out before, bear market rallies frequently hit the 20% level, and this one was no different.) Then, 2 hours into Monday’s action, a 60min 3BR occurred, followed by a Daily 3BR at Tuesday’s close. If Friday closes below 2769, then that will put in a Weekly 3BR as well. These are like dominoes falling one after another, and, at this point, the 3/4 high looks identical to the 12/3 high. The only fly in the ointment for the top to already be in is the fact that the DOW, RUT, and NYA did not make new rally highs on Monday, which still leaves the door open that the larger pattern is an expanded flat that began on 2/25. That potential will be eliminated if 2739 is hit before 2817 is hit.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      If you were to put a wave count Mikey on where we are right now what would it be in your mind?

      • fionamargaret says:

        …not Michael, but if we get $SPX down through 2700 it opens the door to 2598…

      • aahmichael says:

        Johnny, it’s 3 waves down from 2941 to 2347, and 3 waves back up to 2817. (There are several ways to count the rally from 2347, but the simplest is as a zig-zag: 2675-2631-2817.)

        So that is either A down and B up, or wxy down and x up, or 1 down and 2 up of a leading diagonal.

        If the top is in at 2817, then it’s 5 down to 2768: 3 up to 2796: then another 5:3:5:3 down to 2742 and up to 2761. It’s too early to tell how all of these waves will group together, but as of now, they can be counted as a series of subdividing 1-2s.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          thanks Mikey………………one more question……………….what are your thoughts on Gold? The dollar moving up here (with the euro mess) can’t help I’m guessing. Stay out of gold (upmove over) or still in an uptrend?

          • aahmichael says:

            Gold has been dead money for gold investors ever since the rally in the first half of 2016. Just looking at the chart pattern, it looks like it may have finished a contracting triangle that began at the Dec 2015 lows. That means a hard break to the downside is next. OTOH, if stocks tank like I expect them to, then one would think that gold would catch a bid.

            Bottom line: I’m of no help at this moment.

        • b7anjo says:

          Nice work aah.

    • Thanks Michael, interestingly enough we hit 2739 on the nose today.

      • aahmichael says:

        The actual overlap number was 2738.98, so SPX didn’t quite get there, however, all of the other indexes did get there, so the door is closed on the alternate count.

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