Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2707. After a dip to SPX 2699 on Monday the market rallied to an uptrend high of SPX 2725. On Tuesday a quiet open led to another uptrend high at SPX 2739. After that the market started to pullback. After dipping to SPX 2724 on Wednesday, it declined to 2687 on Thursday, and 2682 on Friday. Then the market rallied to SPX 2708 in the afternoon. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. On the economic front the sparse reports were mostly negative. On the downtick: factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the uptick: both the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next weeks reports will be highlighted by the CPI/PPI, industrial production and retail sales. The ECRI continues to rebound after hit a low of -6.5% about a month ago.

LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probability

We have been tracking and commenting about the foreign markets for the past several months. This week most made new uptrend highs before getting caught up in the US pullback. The Nifty (India) joined BVSP (Brazil) in its third wave up from their 2018 low. They are obviously slightly ahead of the rest of the financial world having bottomed early.

In the US the long term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 should be underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have also been tracking five criteria to determine if this uptrend is a B wave rally, with a retest of the December low to follow. Or, the December low ended the bear market and this uptrend is the first of a new bull market. The five criteria we have been tracking: length of rally, wave structure SPX/DOW, wave structure NDX/NAZ, the percentage gain of the advance, and the NYSE percentage level of stocks above their 200 dma. Over the past few weeks 4 of the 5 have turned positive. The reason we have a long-term 80% uptrend (bull market) probability.

We are still waiting on the SPX/DOW to quantify five waves up from the December low. We now have four waves and a possible fifth wave rally underway from Friday’s low. Should the market continue to rally, and make new uptrend highs, that would seal the deal. If the SPX instead drops below 2520 before making new uptrend highs, the uptrend would be considered a three wave zigzag, and a retest of the lows would eventually follow.

SHORT TERM

For the past few weeks we have been posting what we have called a squiggle chart. It displays all the quantified smaller waves of this uptrend. It ran into a little turbulence on Friday, and in its place we post a simplified hourly chart of the SPX. This represents our quantified short term count. A rally above SPX 2708 would be a positive.

With the three day decline into the end of the week SPX 2739 now looks like it ended Minute iii right in the OEW 2731 pivot range. We had reported on that pivot being a potential short term top on Wednesday. The Thursday/Friday decline has quantified as a Minute wave iv. Now all the market has to do is get back to SPX 2739 and we have a quantified impulse wave. We noted the importance of SPX 2520 in the previous section.

Short term support is at SPX 2682 and the 2656 pivot, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum formed a positive divergence at today’s low then ended the day nearly overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week and gained 0.2%.

European markets were mixed as well but lost 0.8%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend as well but lost 4.6%.

Gold is also in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD may be back in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: the CPI and budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and business inventories. Friday: industrial production, export/import prices, the NY FED, and business inventories.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Added the DJ Utilities to the Charts, and moved the VIX to the last page.

About tony caldaro

Investor
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671 Responses to Weekend update

  1. lunker1 says:

    If the comments section of Tony’s blog is not available in the AM please feel free to use my blog until his reopens.

    https://lunker1.wordpress.com/

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  2. tradingbot99 says:

    I keep reading last weekend’s update and still can’t believe it was his last post. RIP Tony

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  3. BTW it is 72 F at Key West tonight….

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  4. chrisk44342 says:

    Not sure if anyone has posted something similar, but from what I see on SPX hourly, – div, in striking distance of 2780, and what appears to be a final impulse in place. Not where I would be going long. https://invst.ly/a1vl9 I don’t predict anything- just a roadmap

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  5. It is very difficult to post with heart under the circumstances. I think every one of you knows what I mean. I’ll be brief, with same old chart. At the last post I said we would trade in no-man’s land (between the solid blue and white dash-dotted lines). My main worry was the red line. We are now there and barely, barely closed above it. It we take that red line we will also take the dash-dotted white line, and the battle will be between 2800-2820. If we pass that we may have some kind of acceleration and then new highs. Time will tell. I do not know how long to new highs and the path.

    My ideal is that we will trade around the up-sloping green line, in general. That would be a full recovery.

    I will look for Tony’s post tomorrow. And probably every weekend from now. And I will miss him and his classy manner and his patience and his guidance.

    https://ibb.co/gJvycwW

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  6. It’s incredible what a loss one can feel from a person that you read daily and swap a few emails with. I’ve thought a lot about Tony since Christine posted the other day. It feels like a family member has passed even though I never met him. And the fact that most of us probably thought he was doing ok as of late makes it even more of a surprise. Seemed like he was posting in the comment section a little more the last few weeks. It’s coming to all of us at some point. The best we can do is to be as ready as we can be to meet our maker. God bless Tony, his family, and his many friends.

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  7. torehund says:

    https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-biotechnology

    From bottom a and b wave finished c wave awaits. Looks like money on the street…..

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  8. phil1247 says:

    i just cant believe there will be no update tomorrow

    God bless Tony

    and God bless us all

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    • Mary773 says:

      People who are ill can appear to be getting better and suddenly they are gone. This is the internet and not face-to-face contact, but Tony’s posts were becoming more frequent and they were cheerful. Obviously, he was not one to burden others with his pain, His unexpected departure is just so jarring. I wish he could have seen the enormous outpouring of respect and affection for him. Sometimes, we wait too long to tell people how important they are to us.

      Best to your mom.

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    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yeah, pretty sad still Phil. Not for Tony, but my own selfish sense of loss. I know he is onto a better place.

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  9. garstall says:

    I feel lost without Tony’s guidance. Who will pick up the reigns?

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