Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2707. After a dip to SPX 2699 on Monday the market rallied to an uptrend high of SPX 2725. On Tuesday a quiet open led to another uptrend high at SPX 2739. After that the market started to pullback. After dipping to SPX 2724 on Wednesday, it declined to 2687 on Thursday, and 2682 on Friday. Then the market rallied to SPX 2708 in the afternoon. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. On the economic front the sparse reports were mostly negative. On the downtick: factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the uptick: both the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next weeks reports will be highlighted by the CPI/PPI, industrial production and retail sales. The ECRI continues to rebound after hit a low of -6.5% about a month ago.

LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probability

We have been tracking and commenting about the foreign markets for the past several months. This week most made new uptrend highs before getting caught up in the US pullback. The Nifty (India) joined BVSP (Brazil) in its third wave up from their 2018 low. They are obviously slightly ahead of the rest of the financial world having bottomed early.

In the US the long term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 should be underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have also been tracking five criteria to determine if this uptrend is a B wave rally, with a retest of the December low to follow. Or, the December low ended the bear market and this uptrend is the first of a new bull market. The five criteria we have been tracking: length of rally, wave structure SPX/DOW, wave structure NDX/NAZ, the percentage gain of the advance, and the NYSE percentage level of stocks above their 200 dma. Over the past few weeks 4 of the 5 have turned positive. The reason we have a long-term 80% uptrend (bull market) probability.

We are still waiting on the SPX/DOW to quantify five waves up from the December low. We now have four waves and a possible fifth wave rally underway from Friday’s low. Should the market continue to rally, and make new uptrend highs, that would seal the deal. If the SPX instead drops below 2520 before making new uptrend highs, the uptrend would be considered a three wave zigzag, and a retest of the lows would eventually follow.

SHORT TERM

For the past few weeks we have been posting what we have called a squiggle chart. It displays all the quantified smaller waves of this uptrend. It ran into a little turbulence on Friday, and in its place we post a simplified hourly chart of the SPX. This represents our quantified short term count. A rally above SPX 2708 would be a positive.

With the three day decline into the end of the week SPX 2739 now looks like it ended Minute iii right in the OEW 2731 pivot range. We had reported on that pivot being a potential short term top on Wednesday. The Thursday/Friday decline has quantified as a Minute wave iv. Now all the market has to do is get back to SPX 2739 and we have a quantified impulse wave. We noted the importance of SPX 2520 in the previous section.

Short term support is at SPX 2682 and the 2656 pivot, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum formed a positive divergence at today’s low then ended the day nearly overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week and gained 0.2%.

European markets were mixed as well but lost 0.8%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend as well but lost 4.6%.

Gold is also in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD may be back in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: the CPI and budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and business inventories. Friday: industrial production, export/import prices, the NY FED, and business inventories.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Added the DJ Utilities to the Charts, and moved the VIX to the last page.

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

639 Responses to Weekend update

  1. my 2 cents is we close around 2703 open up flat tomorrow. trade up and down a few point in the first 20 minutes then off to the races with a plus 35 point day on the sp. Thats my play by play. will see. good luck all

  2. fotis2 says:

    Oil is a buy stop 50.00 targets IHS for 64.00 scaredy-cats can wait for the hammer on daily to confirm tmrw

  3. Mary773 says:

    Speculative excess has been wrung out of oil:

  4. Observation: Oil is lock step with stocks. Struggling to re-establish 52. Now right at that target. IF it can manage to rise above stocks should stay in the black. if it fails again today we should see an acceleration on the downside tomorrow.

    This relationship is a marriage that seems destined to last.

  5. Observation/set-up into a long position…
    On /ES, there is a profit target at 2702, 4 ticks above the 50% long (2701.13). /VX has a corresponding profit target of the long at $16.67. Remember a rally in /VX is bearish for equities.
    The /ES entry would be….as /VX trades it’s profit target ($16.67), /ES should test it’s profit target at 2701.13 or the measured move long at 2701.13. This analysis is invalidated if /ES trades below 2696.32 or above 2715.63 (61.8% short)
    Since the open, /ES has been trading in 3 waves up/down…corrective. BTW the full 50% short for /ES which leads into the 2701 target is 2713.63…I believe /ES is currently trading in a counter trend rally up to 2713.63. As always, we’ll see.

  6. phil1247 says:

    SPX

    nothing has changed since friday

    see you tomorrow

    • phil1247 says:

      phil1247 says:
      February 8, 2019 at 1:19 pm

      target remains 2673
      but risk to shorts is up to 2718 till target is hit

      have a great weekend all !
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      this post was for es so the numbers are a little different
      buy this is a perfect example
      of what you always have to be prepared for

    • hi phil….I am leaving as well. When I didn’t see you posting, I decided to post an update, before I left…great timing….LOL. I think 2701 is the level….looks like a clear 50% long to me.

  7. lml25 says:

    The way I see it this a.m.
    Embedded stochastic looks broken–now at 75.Unless a monster PPT-fueled rally occurs,we go to 2676 by Tuesday EOD.Middle of the bbs at 2669–break that,lower bb at 2589ish.Later all.

    • Add to the mix the average tax payer is getting a rude awakening as they start filing. the early filers are the ones expecting a big tax return. It will be down over 8 percent from before the great tax cut. Today looks kinda weak to me but my BIAS must be interpreting this wrong.

      • https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/eu-official-hopeful-us-will-not-pursue-auto-tariffs

        And the headlines soon will be on EU tariffs, but EU seems “hopeful” the US would not recommend imposing tariffs. Place your bets. I must be an extreme pessimist to assume otherwise. Would this administration actually have a two front attack on tariffs at the same time? Not logical is it. lets see if this administration sticks to being illogical. My assumption: If OIL fails to regain 52 at the minimum stocks will follow.

        Am i going against the grain here? I do believe the first decent drop will be gobbled up. I am NOW positioning for the fast drop and then will be assuming a snap back rally. This market seems to be telegraphing just that. Could it be that easy?

      • riderbobo says:

        I live in British Colulmbia and am wondering why the average tax payer is expecting a big tax return. If they are on salary or are paid by the hour they would simply have less income tax deducted at source, would they not?

        They can’t have it both ways.

        • riderbobo says:

          typo “Columbia”

        • Yes that is true but most Americans didn’t see much of a change in their weekly paycheck and always assumes they will get their bonus at tax times. the new law kills the most progressive profitable states because of the loss of major deductions. I can guarantee this ONE ISSUE will push many of the republicans to vote democrat next election. they have been duped. Why would this government want to penalize the bulk of the revenue stream? That is exactly what they did. The candidate that embraces much higher “wealth” taxes will do very well in the polls.

          I can also guarantee this loss of tax return money will directly impact spending. It will hit the states with the biggest spending and tax revenue. The recession stats will be sealed and conclusive in one more month.

          • stockwaves says:

            People generally have no idea what kind of return they will get this year until they do their taxes. Some will benefit, some will be pissed. One thing is true, very few people changed their withholdings. Me personally – my tax bill is bigger this year than expected.

  8. A Young says:

    Daily VIX MACD is turning bullish, volatility is coming back.

  9. gary leibowitz says:

    The overwhelming consensus is that we are in a bull trend for some time to come. This just confirms that we are at a time where there was sufficient upside movement to allow the long standing bias reinforcement. this happened in 2016 as the strong bias dismissed the obvious.

    I love it. So the next decent drop will be gobbled up. I anticipate that also. Besides being a decade into this run, a world wide trade war that has no indication of letting up, the inability for inflation to put a dent in a quarterly GDP over 4 percent. Extreme concern that Fed funds at 2.5% is at dangerous levels. Yup, we are about there. The FED didn’t do any favors by halting their program of hikes. It was’n’t a gift to the markets. How people can distort the obvious reasons to fit their narrative is exactly why most miss the major reversals.

    OIL below 52, my line in sand. I now doubt we can even sustain this weeks rally without OIL pushing back above 52. I suspect if it can’t today or tomorrow it will drop like a stone and cause the stock markets a surprise strength on the downside.

    I am once again going it alone! I love it when I see one thing and everyone else sees another. The odds of a deep drop in the next 2 weeks is at my historic limit. I hope we get that rally till Friday, BUT given the weak action in OIL I have my doubts.

    • travis01 says:

      You are right, absolutely no other trader in the world is trading a down setup…no one. Most likely every trader will go broke with longs while you collect all of the world’s money through shorts before you buy New Zealand. Vip buys all the dips, you sell all the rips.

      • Bill Manscoe says:

        Is that called the gary-vip strangle. One of the aspects of a strangle is the probability of low profits.

        • gary leibowitz says:

          I am always happy to show you mine if you show me yours. I can give you any time period to compare. I would welcome the comparison. please, please take me up on this.

  10. vipulm555 (buy the fear) - Risk On says:

    Trade worries

  11. gary61b says:

    ES, Its looking like delay tactics with a wave C to finish this wave 2 of 3 from 2721.5. If correct in count, then a burst higher then 2721.5 once 2 is complete. https://gyazo.com/d87f2f71e195d92bb4e6ee4746595e77

  12. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE I have no change to my view that 7200 won’t be exceeded and that remains the ceiling for the duration of the bear market. Looking quite similar to November price action wise. Maybe we roll over back towards 6900 again and then rally back to the highs on the trade deal in March. 7070-7110 providing short term support and needs to break for there to be downside.. but expecting that to go before 7200. So upside looking extremely limited

  13. mcgcapital says:

    More recessionary data out this morning, this time in the U.K. Interesting because it means the slowdown is not just limited to production based economies like China, Germany and Japan, those countries with high exports. It’s spreading to those that are service based. U.K. is structurally quite similar to the US and also has low unemployment. The US economy won’t be immune to all of this… ex US economies slowdown – markets fall – US consumer confidence falls – markets fall more – recession.

    Can see markets going sideways until the trade deal is out of the way, maybe another big short squeeze like we saw in December before it rolls over. Once it’s done then focus will be on the fundamentals

  14. Good morning all. As a follow up to last nights post, /ES broke the weekly measured move short at 2716, during the overnight European open. That represents a trend change from bearish to bullish ES on all time frames, this is important. The first test that confirms the trend change is /ES 2701. FYI…the way this algorithm works is…..after a trend change, there is normally an immediate test of that break to confirm support (support being the 50% – 61.8% long).

    1. If /ES trades to and defends the 50% long at 2701 I expect equities to rally in minute wave V. IMHO, this has a high probability of occurring.
    2. If /ES trades below the 61.8% long at 2696.32 then there is a high probability that rally in the overnight session was a false breakout. IMHO, this has a low probability of occurring.

    Bottom line /ES 2696.32 bearish below and bullish above….minute wave V.

    • schizo1688 says:

      Thanks asa

    • Thanks, ASA.
      If a retest happens, /ES 2701 is a good area of support also on the 1HR.
      40pma
      50 pma
      200pma
      BB bottom

      If we exceed /ES 2713-2714 first, we may retest 2721 before 2701 (if at all).

      • NOTE: There’s that pesky 200pma on the 5min that we just hit off of twice.
        /es 2709.
        If prices surge below /es 2709, 2701 has high probability.
        Until then, there’s support at that level.

        These mini-UP moves to 2712 have been on light volume, FYI.

      • BEWARE: /ES 2703-2704 is the 200pma on the 1HR.
        That may be as far as it goes if it goes lower.
        /es 2709 has to fail first. Seems to be strong support/magnet at this price.

        /es 2710 is the 40pma and 50pma convergence ATM on the 1-MIN.

        • Lost $300 trying to go short then long around 2709/2710 (whipped in and out).

          Went long at /es 2704.
          To my indicators, sustained price above es/ 2701 is bullish short term (e.g., for the day, days, week), so I’m starting here looking for retest of 2737.
          Not going to try for /es 2701.
          No need to let the Big Boys play me like that.

          • stock.. don’t feel bad. I violated my trading rules and lost a few bucks today. The 3 rules I violated today were:

            1. Don’t trade until at lest 9:45 …I did.
            2. Don’t go long when equity markets are declining unless it tests a profit target or a 50% or a 61.8% level. …I went long for a counter trend trade.
            3. Don’t trade a small counter trend trade in a slow, sloppy market especially when the asset you are trading is in no mans land. I did.
            These three trading rules (and I have more) decrease the probability of a profitable trade.

            • 1p is coming up.
              I expect a HUGE move once Big Money comes back from lunch.

              They took it below 2709, but it’s been recaptured, and keeps swinging up from there.
              This hints at more upside (to me).

    • So far just dancing around the GAP. Still expect /ES to test the 50% long at 2701. We’ll see.

  15. Jack Lad says:

    Someone made a prediction for gold. Can you please advise if this is on the right track…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/02/gold-usoz.html

  16. btcusd didnt rise enough yet according to past cases….needs to rise to 3900 during this thrust

    • fionamargaret says:

      Nice charts Alexey.
      Are you only interested in bitcoin, or do other parts of the market interest you also?
      Do you do waves or similar…..I know this is like an inquisition, but I am just trying to get to know you better.
      I shall be back later…leave me notes if you want/need anything…and stick around..x

      • Alexey Belevitch says:

        I dont do waves …..I look for patterns that look similar with respect to price-time….I do not trade short term…..overall I believe that price action and t/a are inherently random having backtested it over the years using API and various t/a methods, and examining the results ….I still believe however that each asset has its own propensity to grow, and using its historical price angle can predict future reward…. thats why currently my sole interest is in bitcoin, since its reward potential is huge….
        the only thing that makes you money in this game in the long run are the fundamental constants…

        • Alexey Belevitch says:

          to clarify, during mean aversion its not random….but with respect to the choices that we make using our predictive tools it will s random….
          to understand what I mean throw away that notion that you can monitor the price action and make choices along the way because its all a fractal….set a systematic stop and limit to your position entry signal and position exit signal, and backtest it….

  17. vipulm555 (buy the fear) - Risk On says:

    Buy the dip

    Cheers!

  18. scottycj1 says:

    alexhartley1
    Alex,
    I believe Friday the 7th was a high—-a weak one at that. We had a higher high from the week before and closed up about a point and a half from the week before. The weekly Cit indicates a couple of weeks correction.
    .382
    .50
    .618.
    .786

  19. jobjas says:

    SSEC in new bull market

  20. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is NASDAQ

  21. Good afternoon all. The large traders parked the /ES futures right smack on the 50% short. While I can’t tell you with any high degree of probability how the futures/indices will trade from this level, what I can offer to you is, watch /ES 2716.

    If /ES trades above the 61.8% short at 2716, the probability is very high, that /ES will test it’s recent high at 2737, in the short term. This activity would confirm Tony’s minute wave V analysis and thus, expect the markets to trade higher over time.

    Short term, /ES is currently trading a 50% short. If /ES stays below 2716 the trend remains bearish. Again, following Tony’s analysis, SPX could still be trading in minute wave iv, with perhaps a retest of the low, double bottom or perhaps a lower low, to one of his pivots.

    Here is where knowing how to trade one particular algothrim can help you in your trading…..in a snapshot in time, I would not recommend taking a new swing long position until /ES trades above 2716 because the short could prevail and the markets could trade lower. Conversely, I would reccomend waiting to see how /ES trades from this 50% short level, to see if it defends and continues lower. Under no circumstances would I reccomend staying in a (swing) short position if /ES trades above 2716. If you are a scalp trader be my guest…..but caution, there could be some whip saws around this level until the market decides it’s true intentions.

    Bottom line…/ES 2716 bullish above and bearish below.

  22. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks Tony. Would like to see the 2650-ish pivot provide support before we take another run.
    https://www.invest-safely.com/stock-market-outlook-2019-02-10.html

  23. Jordi G says:

    Tony, about gold, which is the highest price allowed for this B wave?

  24. lml25 says:

    Here’s what I consider important analysis from two pretty smart guys. (To McG–for information purposes only,lol.Fiona may have to use this disclaimer also–she shouldn’t have to though).
    From Al Brooks on Wednesday (last summary he posted).
    “The weekly chart now has 7 consecutive bull bars. That is rare. Consequently, unless today is a big bull day, Friday will probably close below Monday’s open. That would create a bear bar for this week.

    After a strong 7 week rally, the bulls will soon take some profits. They want to buy again, but don’t yet know how strong the bears are. The bulls typically give the bears about 10 bars to try to create a bear trend. If the bears are unsuccessful, the bulls will buy again.

    Therefore, if this week is the top of the buy climax, the Emini will probably pull back for 2 – 3 weeks. A reasonable target for the bears is the trading range from 3 weeks ago, between 2,600 and 2,650.”
    Ira was watching SPX to unembed.If it does Monday,we should go down to the 18 d (2672)for starters.Below that and you get in sync with Brooks–toward the lower bb.If PPT juices up the market Monday,cancel the bear party until slow stochastics get below 80.
    Ira also saying DXY has a chance to make new highs–over 97.2 more days to embed.Both GDX and DXY up Friday–a rarity.GDX HAD been bullishly embedded,so Monday may be the start of a decline there unless DXY fails to embed.
    Later all.

    • mcgcapital says:

      I like the Al Brooks posts you share, they’re usually clear. And for the avoidance of doubt I like Fiona and her posts. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t robustly question something though. I think what I’ve writtem is fair comment. Trading is a tough gig, if you’re going to be profitable you need to be consistent and disciplined, and know your process inside out. If you do have process nailed down, you should be able to answer simple questions on it. I try and ask the right questions to keep people on track rather than because I’m trying to show them up. I’m not always right with my market views either obviously, but I try and articulate clearly what I’m seeing and looking at to be proved wrong

  25. Thank you Tony for sharing. My thoughts:

  26. Mary773 says:

    Thank you, Tony.
    And your contributions are also greatly appreciated, fiona.

  27. mcgcapital says:

    Fiona:

    I’m sorry but that’s a bit of a cop out. Nobody is asking you to provide trading advice, but if you’re going to post these number sequences you need to post how you’re using them or they have no relevance, and so far you’re yet to do that.

    If I take your posts at face value and just assume that I want to be long when your number sequence is higher and short when its lower, I have the following over the last 12 months:

    The call from last February through most of last year was for lower to 2500s and 2350. This was despite it rallying 400 points between February and September, which for most people would be an unacceptable drawdown to start with.

    Then we finally get the sell off, which does go right down to 2350 which was one of your targets in December. But instead of you saying right that’s it, target achieved so taking profits, you then claim the number sequence is extending down to 1800s, 1900s. So I have to assume that means that you stay short at 2350.

    You’ve then said that the number sequence turned positive at shortly after the lows. But I had a look at the comments from the first week in January, and on 7th January you post about SPY 190s, and then on 8th January you post about SPX 2750. So it didn’t turn positive at the lows as you claimed, it turned positive at some point between 2550-2580 which is where SPX was trading at the time on those days.

    You’re now calling SPX 3200s, which is to be decided, but I feel confident in thinking that will turn out to be wrong too. So for me, it’s pretty clear that this doesn’t work if you’re just looking to hold one way or the other.

    Of course, it would be possible to make money from it with the missing piece inserted, i.e. risk management. I’ve said countless times on here that trading results depend more on money and risk management than market view, so despite your market views being mostly wrong over the last 12 months, you could still be making money if you were smart about entries and kept the losses on a tight leash. But you need to explain how to do that in your posts or else they’re useless at best, and confusing/distracting for newbies who are coming on here and looking up to you at worst. There must be a lot of readers who have tried following your sequences and lost money doing so, so it needs to be mentioned.

    So, to finish, in the current market you’re calling for 2750 and then 3200. Can you translate that into a trade, with a stop loss? How are you positioned, and where would you exit if wrong, and where would you take profits if right? It’s a simple question.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Mcg – a little harsh, but a well reasoned and fair post.

    • scottycj1 says:

      In all fairness to Fee…….her targets are pretty good……BUT……timing off by 9 or 10 months is a big negative.

    • I would agree, that I have no idea how anyone would put these “targets” into actionable trades. ie.) SPX to 1851, DJI to 22,501, TVIX to 100, etc., given no timing, lack of entry point offered, not too mention a stop-loss.

      Back on January 1st, I recall that her WTI crude oil target was for $34 with the Feb. contract having closed out 2018 at $45.41

      Shortly thereafter (and without any kind of “methodology” being presented) that $34 target winds up becoming $79 which is clearly a massive move in the opposite direction. Not $55 or $60, or $65, but $79.

      Meanwhile, there is absolutely no time frame offered for when this is suppose to happen, and I must admit, is a price target which reflects a fundamental thesis of the overall GLOBAL ECONOMY accelerating sharply, thereby increasing the demand for crude oil in dramatic fashion.

      Unfortunately, there is no evidence of the economies of Germany, Italy, France, the UK, China, Japan, India, Canada, or the United States entering into a period of accelerated economic activity. In fact, there is evidence quite the contrary.

      I would hope that Fiona could present her methodology at some point to add some “value” to her targets. Otherwise, it’s terribly difficult to even begin to put such price targets into actionable trades.

  28. fionamargaret says:

    http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/

    Thanks Chris Kimble and Colin Twiggs.

    Thanks Tony.

  29. soulsurfer says:

    Thanks Tony! NAS/NDX support this count as well. NAS has 200% Fib-extensions for two wave degrees at around $7450; right at the 200d SMA 🙂 One more push up would set up nice – div on daily technicals to usher in next larger “back-up-the-truck” pullback. Trade safe folks.

  30. geno0010 says:

    I clearly see 5 waves up from the low. A wave is complete now we head down in B

  31. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony !
    The macd hock on weekly is needle sharp…..no more info needed 🙂

  32. Very clear and concise Tony.
    Much appreciated. And thanks for including EXAS in your charting section! 🙂

  33. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: What, No More Happy Talk?
    http://sentimentsignals.blogspot.com

  34. Thanks, Tony….wonderful analysis and a little different view than what I had, I see that overhead resistance at the 200 day and above that the “wall” at 2800….I would really like to see 2875 which you mentioned in one of your comments…andiamo!

  35. 123 abc says:

    An excellent OEW weekend update, thank you Tony.
    Some observations from a traditional EW approach…

    In regards to the SPX index, Minute-iii is 1.618 times the length of Minute-i wave. A typical 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for Minute-iv would be around the 2656 or 2632 OEW pivot ranges. From then on, should Minute-v equal Minute-i wave, then the overall Minor-1 wave may end at the 2835 pivot range.

    However, the NAS index may suggest five Minute waves have already completed, and hence, Minor-1 is complete. This may suggest the final fifth Minute-v wave in the SPX may be short-lived. If not, then the NAS may eke out a potentially irregular b-wave high whilst the SPX completes its final Minute-v wave…

    SPX

    NAS

  36. phil1247 says:

    asa

    update…. rasi at 899 now

    per tom…………………. its a GO!

  37. Tony, Is it possible that the correction from Jan. 18 -23 was the minute iv? And the high 2738 was minute v?

  38. garstall says:

    Thanks Tony. Great update!

  39. Hi,thanks Tony

    EEM
    wave from 2016 didn’t seem impulsive
    https://invst.ly/9-q-s

    LYXCRB
    https://invst.ly/9-r0a

    CL
    “could” retest 58/60 ST
    https://invst.ly/9-r2s

  40. Jordi G says:

    Hi Tony, I’ve realized that if V=i, then the target zone is a very special zone….casuality?

  41. Cut, dry, and to the point. With specific numbers to look for. Thanks Tony for your excellent detailed analysis. Have a great weekend!

  42. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  43. jobjas says:

    Thanks Tony.
    why wave 4 may not be over

  44. I like the adjustment you made in this update. It certainly does look like minute wave iv may have completed intraday yesterday and SPX is currently trading in minute wave v. I should underscore may because:

    1. minute wave iv is a bit shallow. A 23.6% or 38.1% pullback of minute wave 3 would call for additional decline to complete minute wave iv. I know it doesn’t have to be as you made specific mention of the minute waves ii and iv’s decline (red) and you have a question mark by iv.

    2. I have a concern about the one week sideways activity the third week in Jamuary…could that count as a mintute wave iv and SPX may have completed or is close to completing minute wave v? The approx. 18 point rally with a green close may have invalidated this analysis.

    I guess we’ll see this week but as usual, your analysis will prove to the prescient one.

    • We are not in wave v. It is still iv and will be for a while. The reason for it is that wave ii was fast so wave iv will probably be slow (few weeks long?). So I expect spx to move in a range (2740-2680?) for a while. Then wave v will start – IMHO

      • I think a thrust above 2740-2741/200dma will prove that Wave 4 is over.
        However, I remember clearly last year when there was a surge past 2743 to 2755 and then a drop to 2720, so nothing is written in stone as “must happen” or else. Just have to watch price and play with trailing stops in case it turns down.

  45. quickrick38 says:

    Some of the most balanced and objective analysis I’ve ever seen. Great job Tony!

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