Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2707. After a dip to SPX 2699 on Monday the market rallied to an uptrend high of SPX 2725. On Tuesday a quiet open led to another uptrend high at SPX 2739. After that the market started to pullback. After dipping to SPX 2724 on Wednesday, it declined to 2687 on Thursday, and 2682 on Friday. Then the market rallied to SPX 2708 in the afternoon. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.55%. On the economic front the sparse reports were mostly negative. On the downtick: factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the uptick: both the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. Next weeks reports will be highlighted by the CPI/PPI, industrial production and retail sales. The ECRI continues to rebound after hit a low of -6.5% about a month ago.

LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probability

We have been tracking and commenting about the foreign markets for the past several months. This week most made new uptrend highs before getting caught up in the US pullback. The Nifty (India) joined BVSP (Brazil) in its third wave up from their 2018 low. They are obviously slightly ahead of the rest of the financial world having bottomed early.

In the US the long term count remains unchanged. Super cycle SC2 low March 2009. Primary I high May 2015, and Primary II low February 2016. Major wave 1 high October 2018, Major wave 2 low December 2018. Intermediate wave i of Major 3 should be underway now.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

We have also been tracking five criteria to determine if this uptrend is a B wave rally, with a retest of the December low to follow. Or, the December low ended the bear market and this uptrend is the first of a new bull market. The five criteria we have been tracking: length of rally, wave structure SPX/DOW, wave structure NDX/NAZ, the percentage gain of the advance, and the NYSE percentage level of stocks above their 200 dma. Over the past few weeks 4 of the 5 have turned positive. The reason we have a long-term 80% uptrend (bull market) probability.

We are still waiting on the SPX/DOW to quantify five waves up from the December low. We now have four waves and a possible fifth wave rally underway from Friday’s low. Should the market continue to rally, and make new uptrend highs, that would seal the deal. If the SPX instead drops below 2520 before making new uptrend highs, the uptrend would be considered a three wave zigzag, and a retest of the lows would eventually follow.

SHORT TERM

For the past few weeks we have been posting what we have called a squiggle chart. It displays all the quantified smaller waves of this uptrend. It ran into a little turbulence on Friday, and in its place we post a simplified hourly chart of the SPX. This represents our quantified short term count. A rally above SPX 2708 would be a positive.

With the three day decline into the end of the week SPX 2739 now looks like it ended Minute iii right in the OEW 2731 pivot range. We had reported on that pivot being a potential short term top on Wednesday. The Thursday/Friday decline has quantified as a Minute wave iv. Now all the market has to do is get back to SPX 2739 and we have a quantified impulse wave. We noted the importance of SPX 2520 in the previous section.

Short term support is at SPX 2682 and the 2656 pivot, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum formed a positive divergence at today’s low then ended the day nearly overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mixed on the week and gained 0.2%.

European markets were mixed as well but lost 0.8%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.4%.

Crude remains in an uptrend as well but lost 4.6%.

Gold is also in an uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD may be back in an uptrend and gained 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: the CPI and budget deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, retail sales, the PPI, and business inventories. Friday: industrial production, export/import prices, the NY FED, and business inventories.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Added the DJ Utilities to the Charts, and moved the VIX to the last page.

About tony caldaro

Investor
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665 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Jack Lad says:

    Ciao Mr Tony. Following you all the way. I was wondering what can keep markets bullish for the long term when the wall of the dam above us is spitting chunks of concrete? But then this concept for a screenplay arrived along with an tinnitus attack…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/02/s-500-draft-concept-for-screenplay.html

  2. lunker1 says:

    If the comments section of Tony’s blog is not available in the AM please feel free to use my blog until his reopens.

    https://lunker1.wordpress.com/

  3. tradingbot99 says:

    I keep reading last weekend’s update and still can’t believe it was his last post. RIP Tony

  4. BTW it is 72 F at Key West tonight….

  5. chrisk44342 says:

    Not sure if anyone has posted something similar, but from what I see on SPX hourly, – div, in striking distance of 2780, and what appears to be a final impulse in place. Not where I would be going long. https://invst.ly/a1vl9 I don’t predict anything- just a roadmap

  6. It is very difficult to post with heart under the circumstances. I think every one of you knows what I mean. I’ll be brief, with same old chart. At the last post I said we would trade in no-man’s land (between the solid blue and white dash-dotted lines). My main worry was the red line. We are now there and barely, barely closed above it. It we take that red line we will also take the dash-dotted white line, and the battle will be between 2800-2820. If we pass that we may have some kind of acceleration and then new highs. Time will tell. I do not know how long to new highs and the path.

    My ideal is that we will trade around the up-sloping green line, in general. That would be a full recovery.

    I will look for Tony’s post tomorrow. And probably every weekend from now. And I will miss him and his classy manner and his patience and his guidance.

    https://ibb.co/gJvycwW

  7. It’s incredible what a loss one can feel from a person that you read daily and swap a few emails with. I’ve thought a lot about Tony since Christine posted the other day. It feels like a family member has passed even though I never met him. And the fact that most of us probably thought he was doing ok as of late makes it even more of a surprise. Seemed like he was posting in the comment section a little more the last few weeks. It’s coming to all of us at some point. The best we can do is to be as ready as we can be to meet our maker. God bless Tony, his family, and his many friends.

  8. torehund says:

    https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-biotechnology

    From bottom a and b wave finished c wave awaits. Looks like money on the street…..

  9. phil1247 says:

    i just cant believe there will be no update tomorrow

    God bless Tony

    and God bless us all

    • Mary773 says:

      People who are ill can appear to be getting better and suddenly they are gone. This is the internet and not face-to-face contact, but Tony’s posts were becoming more frequent and they were cheerful. Obviously, he was not one to burden others with his pain, His unexpected departure is just so jarring. I wish he could have seen the enormous outpouring of respect and affection for him. Sometimes, we wait too long to tell people how important they are to us.

      Best to your mom.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      Yeah, pretty sad still Phil. Not for Tony, but my own selfish sense of loss. I know he is onto a better place.

  10. garstall says:

    I feel lost without Tony’s guidance. Who will pick up the reigns?

  11. jobjas says:

    short at market close

  12. gary leibowitz says:

    Thank you market! I hoped we spike today and glad we did. My target is still DOW 25,998 and we closed at 25,883. Doing the math I have another 115 points. I expect this to hit before open on Tuesday. If not then we hit that easily on Tuesday. the ability to go past that number is the TELL.

    if we can break that number i exit my PUTS and wait for another rainy day. I find it exceedingly funny that the fundamentals and earnings are really bad and getting worse daily. the front and center news as to why we are rallying is because there is a hope and dream that there would not be an increase on tariffs for China. think about it for a nano-second. The street views the same subject i did from September! WOW! I guess most of them are not fans of EW. if they were they could have just stated that the charts were not subject to a drop.

    Good luck all. I made my bet right at close today.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Can’t write what I’m really thinking because then it goes into moderation. But you’re smart so figure it out.

      Last time I’ll address you then I’ll be out of your way Gary. (If you do the same that is).

      You basically are the reverse of Tony. Egocentric, god-complex, not one care for the feelings of others. Disrespectful to no avail of Tony’s wishes and then unabashedly breaking his rules, and ultimately not caring about the current mood of the blog.

      You Gary are really sick, and I don’t mean it in a pejorative way. You have mentioned you are taking meds but that’s not enough. Seek help.

      If your posts are going to dominate this blog from now on then I pity the rest of the blog.

      Mcg has said he finds merit on your posts. I personally don’t.
      Another poster was on point mentioning it’s not what you say but the way you say it.

      If you are the best trader in the world? Who cares! If you don’t make any bad trades and are on your way to be a millionaire? Who cares! Good for you.
      If you are a genius and can see in the markets what no one else apparently does? Again, who cares!!!

      Whether your posts are political or not is beyond the point now. The point is that you are basically carrying on with your bad taste posts in a moment of sorrow and you’re being incredibly disrespectful.

      So carry on, genius trader.
      Just take into account that if your stay in here were decided by vote I’m sure 80% of the blog would vote to give you the boot asap. And 80% may be too optimistic.

      You abused Tony’s tolerance and generosity.
      And you know it. You did circumvent his no politics rule, and you know it. And now you are showing you really have not a care about anyone’s current feelings of sorrow and lost.

      All you apparently care about is to be seeing as this unfailing trading guru. Guess what, there are fairly bigger things that make a man a great one. And on those, you don’t measure up, not by one big shot.

      I for one, I’m tired of you and your (insert here bad word) so in order to keep my cool I’ll force myself to skip not only your posts, which had done for months now, but also the posts of others that I regularly read, as soon as I see they are talking about you/your posts.

      Have a good and successful life.

      • Ho Ho says:

        Seriously buddy get a life, you are a really whining poster. Making assumptions about who Tony let post or not. Just scroll on past the drivel, geez how hard is it to use your index finger.

      • mcgcapital says:

        I hate her politics and ego driven stuff, just think that if that was tempered then it would be ok and she brings up some topics/newsflow on tariffs that I’ve not seen before which makes it a useful read… but she does show time and again that she can’t leave that out when posting so unless she agrees to change I’d vote for her to leave too. But I’d vote for someone to filter the political posts and just leave the market related ones. You can’t disassociate politics from the market right now. When someone posts politics it’s obvious to me which is market relevant/interesting discourse and which is partisan.. so I’d assume it’s obvious to everyone else too. I think Tony tried to blanket ban it because he didn’t want to waste his precious time filtering between the two which is fair enough.. but if someone could just delete every partisan post as soon as it’s posted then people would get the message

  13. 123 abc says:

    I miss Tony. I am heartbroken.

  14. lunker1 says:

    SPX new high
    VIX new low
    NAZ bull flag breakout and backtest

    up we go

  15. Lee x says:

    Talk about a guy who left it all on the field.

  16. It has not yet, Hit Me…that Tony. Is no longer here….

  17. gary leibowitz says:

    While it looks, smells, acts like a top is here I still have an indicator that suggests a top should form at the peak of momentum range. DOW hit 25,800 today. I need to see 25,998. That suggests either a strong close and after hours hit or we have some more room to rise.

    I hope we get close by this close so i can place my bet with more confidence. I have waited 2 weeks for this moment. BTW all this on very weak economic data and in just the last week we had earnings drop from minus 1,9 to minus 2.4% next quarter.

    Hope spring eternal and irrational optimism is peaking. This always suggests a violent drop after. A 560 point DOW rise today would do it! but alas, that seems out of reach. if only everything was in sync. I suppose a move like this during such bad news after an impressive rebound suggests what? A breakout? A breakdown? or flat? Place your bets.

    I personally think not only the commerce report will be seen this Sunday but Mueller should either set up the next round of indictments or finish the whole thing next week. That too was my assumption. Peak stock market at report revelations? We know for a fact that Sessions, Kushner and Jr. lied to congress under oath. How much more there is remains to be seen. The 3 people i mentioned is not speculation but fact. they did lie to congress and already got caught.

    Going to be a fun last 2 weeks of February as i anticipated many weeks ago.

    • Mary773 says:

      I liked you more before you went crazy and cut off your ear.

      • gary leibowitz says:

        Tell me that in just 2 short weeks. I was adamant in 2016 when everyone on this blog saw the deep dark black hole gobble the world. Can you remember that? I find it strange and miraculous how we humans absorb mistakes, reinvent the reasons behind it and manage to repeat it over and over again. this happens also in September of last year. If you can accept that a person throwing darts at a board to determine the markets future has as much chance of being correct as this EW chart then why bother? i mean i was against these chart patterns on two of the biggest moves in recent past and was rewarded.

        hey, i can be wrong here but the evidence is mounting that we are in the final throws of a major deep reversal. use fundamentals, use earnings, use trade wars, use political turmoil, use technical, use anything your heart desires and i can assure you that bias is stronger than any rational assumptions out there. Ten years into an historic bull run and my notion of a top is dismissed as if there can be no logical reason for it? We rationalize our original position and filter out anything that deviates from it. me, i change on a dime for raging bull to bear. I was a raging bull in early 2016. I am a raging bear now. i see all the events converge at the same time. The dismantling of our democracy is as plain as the nose on your face yet most don’t look in the mirror. I always attribute major economic changes to social ones. this is the granddad of them all. the democrats only see a political win for their party. I see a devastating future. I called this administration out on day one of their term. I was absolutely vindicated even if you can’t see it yet.

        we are in for a deep dark period that will last decades. If we don’t destroy ourselves first.

        • fxaprendiz says:

          You are not a raging bear, you are a rabid political fanatic.

          If you had an ounce of human decency you would laid down this political garbage at least for some days, out of respect for Tony, who made very clear he didn’t want more of it just a few days ago.

          I don’t know what will be of Tony’s (God bless him) blog from now on, but if people like you aren’t reigned in I anticipate a darker future for it.

          So I may be speaking only for myself here, but Gary kindly go screw yourself.

        • fxaprendiz says:

          A previous reply of mine got into moderation, surely because certain word was used.

          Gary, you are not a raging bear you are a rabid political fanatic.

          If you had an ounce of human decency you would laid off this political non-sense out of respect for Tony who made clear a few days ago no more of it.

          • phil1247 says:

            Both a manic and a hypomanic episode include three or more of these symptoms:

            Abnormally upbeat, jumpy or wired
            Increased activity, energy or agitation
            Exaggerated sense of well-being and self-confidence (euphoria)
            Decreased need for sleep
            Unusual talkativeness
            Racing thoughts
            Distractibility
            Poor decision-making — for example, going on buying sprees, taking sexual risks or making foolish investments

            mayo clinic

            • gary leibowitz says:

              All i can say is when this is done with and you look back you would have total amnesia on how you thought and felt. Embarrassment would be prominent on your mind.

              Anytime you want to review actual gains and losses i am more than willing. in fact i beg you to take me up on it. I keep getting blamed for bad trades and losses yet when i suggest PROOF i hear the sound of silence. Unbelievable. PUT UP OR SHUT UP!

              me i already have my best posted and timestamped. I can’t alter them.

              Good luck to ya…… if trying to demean me makes you feel better when the hammer comes down i am glad to help. I have a habit of seeing things way before others. Don’t know why.

        • fxaprendiz says:

          I don’t know what will be of Tony’s (God bless him) blog from now on, but if people like you aren’t reigned in I anticipate a dark future for it.

          So I may be speaking only for myself here, but Gary kindly find a hole and stay there until you attain some common sense and a minimum of human decency.

          • phil1247 says:

            he may be may be unable to stop this behavior

          • mcgcapital says:

            Think if it is continued, someone will have to moderate it. And that will mean Gary’s posts being edited to keep out the politics. Maybe Lunker can do it given he wants to police things

            • fxaprendiz says:

              Editing out non-market related politics off Gary’s posts will only leave 5% content.

              He’s a lost cause.

              • mcgcapital says:

                There’s an intellect in there and there’s sometimes some good stuff posted that nobody else mentions. But it’s surrounded by the biased stuff. I’m sure if someone could be bothered they could edit her posts.. maybe that would make her just post stuff that’s on point. But probably as Phil said she has an issue and wouldn’t be able to not do it

              • elmer510 says:

                Problem you can’t tell him what to do cause he never listens to anyone. That’s a part of the diagnosis. Self proclaimed genious with a track record beyond control.

        • torehund says:

          There are different views as to who will succumb during financial turmoil. You choose the best one of two ugly sisters when placing your funds, particularly during times of utter uncertainty. There are several options; solid stuff like real estate, gov bonds, corporate bonds, stocks and currencies. Gov bonds and currencies belong to the coming loosers (Gov) and real estate world wide is as bloated in price as it will ever get. Buying farm land when farmers are going BK might be good long term, but has the bottom been reached ? Then it burns down to corporate bonds which is unattainable for most small investors, leaves stock as the sole option at this point in time, or did I miss something. I go for Tonys P-3 option, and I am pretty confident about doing so 🙂

  18. lml25 says:

    Watching NASDAQ.It looks like it wants to lead down.IWM leading up,but NAS is the canary in the…

  19. I count all waves done… 5 main waves and 5 waves of the 5th. Let’s see.

  20. Im guessing the 1-1:30 moving area is going to either push it up or push it down. Another 1-1:30 of Chop. Still leaning toward the high will be in today if not in already. See ya next week.
    Have a nice weekend everyone

  21. phil1247 says:

    Quick Quiz

    why was the top tick so far on es at 2773 ?

  22. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  23. purplember says:

    the ECRI report Tony posted in weekend update was -4.0 but ticking up. However, this week’s ECRI ticked back down to -4.3

  24. quickrick38 says:

    Now it’s a waiting game to see just how high this goes. Time to be patient.

  25. Mary773 says:

    Major Fibonacci and chart resistance at 2800-2815, above which there is a vacuum to 2862, and then the ATH at 2940 and major extensions at 3041. The next hard pullback, preferably taking the form of an ABC correction, should present a good buying opportunity. The trend is up until proven otherwise, and shorting V-bottoms is for kamikazes

    • gary61b says:

      yes Mary, I like the 2860 if minute 5 reaches it. 👍

    • gary leibowitz says:

      Nasdaq not exactly leafing this parade since it’s lat today. Recession is a given based on the hug drop in spending and production drop off. A decade ago was last recession? Tax cut causing a boom/bust scenario. Right on time! The hope and prayer is that we don’t add 25% tariffs on china March 1st, not anything near an agreement. this is the latter stage of a huge bubble. We also have no mention of EU trade war about to get ugly. I can guarantee it will be front and center on Monday morning.

      This is a gift from the gods. Oh yeah, earnings? well they are continuing to be lowered and next quarter expected negative results.

      I absolutely love how traders follow the market instead of anticipate. I n ot only expect a decent drop soon but by end of march we will hit lower lows. But don’t worry, the market in such a bubble always takes it’s time to display the worse. we should have a rebound after March. How high and long is this EW chart decision. I play the moment.

      BTW, the whole market analysis of WHY we are moving higher is exclusively Trade Talks. So I guess the whole world has been wrong on trade being a market mover. Gotta love the logic here. Stubborn and illogical. Wait till the EU trade war starts. If you think this one is bad you have not seen anything yet.

      As far as my momentum indicator and targets we need another big boost and perhaps we get in in the futures market before the Commerce report on autos. Anything is possible.

      I had for 2 weeks now this date as the logical top. Will i get lucky?

      • Lucky?
        Not until the 200pma on the 1HR is broken; until then, you’ll just be the broken record/skipping CD.

        Also, a major major selloff before the Daily is in 80% RSI range? Maybe.
        This prior selloff to 2330, it only reached 70ish.
        However, before that, at 2900, RSI reached 88%.
        In 10/2006, it reached 78%.
        In 04/2007 (high), it reached 75%.

        Negative divergence.
        Same thing we have now.

        We will see.
        I don’t trade the news, just the price.

  26. phil1247 says:

    last one

    have a great holiday weekend all

    hasta la vista …. bay bee

  27. lunker1 says:

    Minor 1 targets

    if 2731 is micro 4
    5=1 2767
    5=1.618×1 2789

    if 2682 is minute 4
    5=.618×1 2789
    5=1 2855

    2789 might be it

  28. sell the news. going to tank

  29. gary leibowitz says:

    I am calling today the top. Retail Sales, industrial prosecution din’t just slow they fell badly. The FED telegraphed this. The market ignores it and that is a great thing. They await the Commerce Report due out this Sunday which is guaranteed to declare a national threat from EU on autos.

    I actually think we have a sharp move up today followed by a late day drop. The notion that China will agree to stopping their program to be a player in the high tech arena is ludicrous. The EU tweets will start immediately once the report comes out. The imbalance has widened as has the China imbalance. Seems this administration wants to rectify it any way they can.

    The market is obviously ready for a fall. Recession is already here based on multiple data points. Add a war with the EU and that prescription is a pill too big to swallow.

    I will be placing my bet sometime today.

    • gary leibowitz says:

      I wish my momentum indicators were also at extremes. the DOW needs to get to 25,998 to reach that goal. it needs a 560 point move from close of yesterday. it ONLY has 345 points so far today.

      • aahmichael says:

        Best not to be greedy. SPX 2772 was today’s D2 pivot resistance, as well as the touch back to the underside of the long term channel that began 2 years ago. The DOW touched it’s upper BB at today’s high as well.

  30. WOW! A 40 point blastoff from the overnight lows.

    If this is the blowoff final wave before a major move down, then the 1HR needs to be overbought (85-86% range) on the RSI, IMO.
    It is currently hitting overbought territory, but low end, so I would expect a YUGE move to 2780’s to get to RSI 85% before this relents down 50+ points.

    I will NOT be SHORT until the RSI hits this level. Lest endure major pain.
    At the moment, the sky is the limit; no guarantees this falls majorly even if RSI is overbought.

    • So how will I know that the this is the final up move before a major fall?
      The /es 1HR 200pma will be breached.
      Of course, before the 1HR 200pma gets breached, other earlier timeframes’ 200pma will be breached. 30min, 15min, 5min, etc.
      The 1HR 200pma is currently at /es 2727 (~1.5% down from 2770).

      Until the 1HR 200pma is breached, it’s bullish for the 1HR.
      And the /es has been bullish since 2470 (with a two visible sideways penetrations at 2640 and 2700).

      Also, in order for the 1HR RSI to stay overbought today, any pullback will have to be light (or largeish pullback early in the hour – turn candle red – and surge in the last 15 min of the hour to recapture a green candle).
      If this is NOT the final up move, then prices could come back to the /es 2750’s and a second major thrust occur on Tuesday to 2780+.
      We have moved so fast in such a short time, and that is evident with the 1HR RSI move from overnight to now. 35% to 75%. RSI may have a hard time reaching 85% as the overnight 1HR RSI (at the low) was 35%. A move from 30% to 85% on the RSI is much more difficult than a move from 55% to 80% on the RSI.

      I suspect a sideways market after this morning’s move and a surge up (or up and back) at the 2p-4p hours. I’m leaning more towards a pullback at the end of the day as we are going into a holiday weekend. Who wants to hold longs overnight into Tuesday – a lot of days for things to fall apart. Also I don’t expect this hourly candle at 10a ET to go RED; therefore, pullback prices cannot be below 2767 before 11a ET.

      /ES at 10:45a is currently only 0.96% up for the day.
      We’ve seen 2% daily moves during this whole uptrend (and downtrend), so while the squeeze higher today seems big, % wise, it is moderate at the moment.

      • Just saw what you are talking about the 200 day moving average on the 1 hour chart.

        When do you go long for a swing trade? When prices close above the 200 day moving average for second consecutive day?

        Because I noticed it there were a couple failed closes above it before it finally held.

  31. phil1247 says:

    bada boom !

    i love this game !

  32. jeffbalin says:

    Christine,
    I think at some point soon we will not be able to post on this site until there is a new blog entry here, am I correct? You can just post a sentence or couple words and that will work. Thank you

  33. gary61b says:

    ES, yesterday I was suggesting micro 1 of minute 5 ended at 2763, micro 2 complete when 2763 is surpassed. wave 3 to new highs, looking for around 40 points off the low for nano 1 of micro 3… its a suggestion but lets see what the sentiment brings us..

  34. phil1247 says:

    es
    tight series up above 2751

    bulls in charge

Comments are closed.