Turn what appears to be random growth into a quantified OEW repetitive pattern

Many are familiar with the original three Dow Jones Averages: Industrials, Transports and Utilities. The mainstream media reports daily on the first two, but hardly pays any attention these days to the latter. In the following paragraphs we will display how what appears to be random growth patterns are actually repetitive growth patterns using OEW.

The Transports. Most are quite familiar with this average as it is quoted every day by the MSM, and we even have its charts included in our stock charts. This is what it looks like over the past 100 years.

To the untrained eye, after the 1932 crash low, it looks like a major low in 1938, 1970 and 2009. Its three biggest bear markets over the past century. When we apply OEW quantified analysis we see something a bit different, and a series of repetitive patterns. No randomness at all!

After Cycle waves [1] and [2], 1932-1938, we see a simple P1-P2 (blue), a simple M1-M2 (black), then a five wave (purple) M3, followed by a five wave (purple) M5 to complete P3 (blue). Then Cycles waves [3] and [4] complete in 1973-1974, and the same exact pattern starts all over again. A simple P1-P2, a simple M1-M2, a five wave M3, followed by a five wave M5 to complete P3. SC1 and SC2 then conclude in 2008-2009. Then the same repetitive pattern starts all over again. This suggests Intermediate iii of Major 3 should be underway next.

The Utilities. While neglected these days by the MSM it is still unfolding in its own repetitive pattern. This is what is looks like over the past nearly 100 years.

 

Notice it did not end its depression crash until 1942. Then it looks like a major low in 1970, and another major low in 2002. When we apply OEW quantified analysis we see a totally different series of repetitive patterns, unique to this index.

Cycle [1] starts off with a lengthy P1 and P3 (blue), and ends with a five Major wave (black)P5. The after the Cycle [2] low in 1974 the pattern repeats with a slight alternation. Cycle [3] starts with a lengthy P1 (blue), a five Major wave (black) P3, then a simple P5 (blue). Then after the Cycle [4] low, SC 1 high, and SC2 low, the initial pattern (1942-1965) begins to repeat again. This suggests P5 should subdivide into five Major waves next.

If one had this much historical data, and the proper training, one could uncover similar repetitive patterns in any stock index, commodity, currency or stock. Best to your investing.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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28 Responses to Turn what appears to be random growth into a quantified OEW repetitive pattern

  1. 123 abc says:

    Excellent analysis Tony, very appreciated.
    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

    A couple of questions…

    1. How does OEW know or quantify the difference between a wave-2 and a wave-4 at various degrees? For example, on the Transportation index, OEW has a wave-2 low (i.e. Major-2 wave) in 2016. But how does OEW know this isn’t actually a wave-4 low (i.e. Primary-iv wave) instead? In a quite a few other related indices, OEW has the 2016 low as a wave-4 pullback.

    2. From the 1932 low, the Transporation index started a SuperCycle wave, and completed the first Cycle-1 wave shortly afterwards. From the 2009 low, another new SuperCycle wave has started. If Cycle-1 from 1932 low is considered as a Leading Diagonal, and If Major-1 (2015) and Major-2 (2016) were to be considered as Primary-iii and Primary-iv waves, then Cycle-1 would have completed at the 2018 high. Is this plausible comparison to make, i.e. as follows…?

    • 123 abc says:

      Tony, I’m confused, you just said what I was proposing (I think!); in regards to the Transportation index…

      —1932 started a SuperCycle. The first Cycle-1 wave, consisted of five Primary waves during 1932-1937.

      —2009 started a SuperCycle. The first Cycle-1 wave, consisted of five Primary waves during 2009-2018.

      If the aforementioned two comparisons are true, then the Transportation index would currently be in Cycle-2 pullback, equivalent to 1938. Could this be a possibility under OEW theory?

    • ttsden says:

      SALUTI PADRONE, ANLISI MAGISTRALE .
      CIAO

    • tony caldaro says:

      that is not my chart!
      why are you using my logo and modifying my work?
      do not ask me any more questions
      I maintain three websites, plus teach
      I don’t have time for trickery.

      • 123 abc says:

        Tony! I did NOT intend any trickery!

        I simply modified your chart to express my inquiry. In my post I stated two modifications, and provided a modified OEW Transportation chart to visualize the modifications —not under trickery, but explicitly and intentionally to assist the question.

        —Modification 1: Cycle-1 from 1932 low considered as a Leading Diagonal, consisting of five Primary waves from 1932-1937.

        —Modification 2: Major-1 (2015) and Major-2 (2016) considered as Primary-iii and Primary-iv waves, then Cycle-1 would have completed from 2009-2018.

        All I wanted to convey was that if these modifications were permissible under OEW theory, as per the modified chart, then the start of both SuperCycle waves, i.e. from 1932 and 2009 would be very similar, and that now Cycle-2 pullback would now by underway from the 2018 high.

        Anyway, no need to respond, but just wanted to clarify, apologies for the confusion! 😉

  2. tony caldaro says:

    Was that you Lee?
    CNBC just reported the most expensive home in Miami just sold for $50mil.
    Did you cash in your CL longs? =)

  3. Investor’s Intelligence Sentiment as of 2/5:

    Bulls: 48.6% vs 45.8%

    Bears: 20.6% vs 20.6%

    Correction Camp: 30.8% vs 33.6%

  4. vipulm555 (buy the fear) - Risk On says:

    UP 34 points 🙂

    Simple no charts nothing just dip

  5. filipozze says:

    by the way thanks for your work. never seen an accuracy like your method before

  6. filipozze says:

    Hi tony, just a question: what’s the real difference between classic Elliott wave and objective Elliott wave?. in my experience i found difficult to know degree of trends. i mean, this pullback is clearly corrective…but i could label as wave 4 from 2008 and then the final wave started this year or like you said months ago 1-2 and now we are in wave 3..

  7. From Bud…..My view, SPX is in a Bear market, while the last peak high,
    remains the ultimate resistance, Not much support below, Best Wishes

    • ttsden says:

      HEY BUD HOPE YOU ARE WELL, GOOD.
      PLEASE READ TONY’S LIPS VIA THESE CHARTS OF TODAY. THEY TELL A TRUE STORY OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKET IN THE HISTORY OF US STOCK MARKET
      YET TO COME. SIR, PLEASE BE FOREWARNED. – THE UPCOMING PERFORMANCE WILL BE AKIN TO NASDAQ’S ASCENDANCE FROM 1000 TO 5000, IN 1995 – 2000.
      KEEP SIDELINED IF YOU PLAN TO SHORT ALONG THE WAY. AM NOT BS.
      BUD, MY ANALYTICAL SYSTEM BEGAN WITH KONDRATIEFF CO-JOINED WTH ORIENTAL ASTROLOGY & INDIAN VEDIC ASTROLOGY IN LONDON UNI. IN THE LATE 60’S . I TRACK CYCLES & TRENDS INDICES GOLD CRUDE OIL FOREX
      – NEVER STOCKS PER SEE. WHEN I WAS AN ANALYST IN A LONDON BANK –
      1 OF THE VERY FEW GLOBAL BANKS OF THE DAY. IN THE VERY EARLY 70’S.
      IN 72 I FILED A REPORT TO TOP BRASS; I SAID SIRS “I AM SCARED, THERE’S AN ECONOMIC CRASH COMING” ( London was the epicenter of their glorious commonwealth ) THEY LAUGHED AND ASKED WHAT? WHY? USUAL POMMEY RESPONSE IN A PUB AFTER WORK. I UTTERED, ” SIR CRUDE OIL IS GOING TO EXPLODE” !! THE REST IS HISTORY.
      THEREAFTER I COMBINED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS INTO MY PLATFORM. I WAS THE FIRST SUB FROM ASIA TO BOB PRECHTER”S EWTI SERVICE, BOB ENDORSED MY SEMINAR POSTERS WITH HIS GRINNING MUGSHOT AND COMMENT: “TONY KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK. THAT POSTER TRAVELLED WITH ME AROUND SOUTH EAST ASIA FOR OVER 20 YEARS. ONE DAY I GOT A POSTCARD FROM BOB,
      “HAVE EWT WILL TRAVEL”
      BUD MAIL ME IF YOU WISH: tonyteo8@gmail.com, my work is for sharing with you – for free, forever, .THANKS FOR LISTENING.
      .. TONY e GRAZIE MOLTO.
      e&oe

  8. vipulm555 (buy the fear) - Risk On says:

    Buy the dip

  9. lml25 says:

    My amatuer analysis is:On the monthly DJT chart,after the first two waves complete,there appears to be consistent consolidation(marked by the first “x” after the 2nd wave low)that lasts for months or years.When the previous high is exceeded,that seems to give the all clear for further upside in wave 3.We have to get above 11,623 to do that now.Agree?

  10. H D says:

    Nice work Tony. And the battle against media (MSM) even finds its way to the stock markets. Just curious how you came to that conclusion. I see an opportunity to view the utilities right next to the DJIA and TRAN on Barrons, WSJ, CNBC, and Market watch.

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