REVIEW
The week started at SPX 2665. After a gap down opening on Monday the market hit SPX 2624. After that it rebounded, and continued to work its way higher for the rest of the week. Tuesday hit a high of SPX 2651, Wednesday SPX 2690, Thursday SPX 2709 and Friday SPX 2717. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.5%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.5%. On the economic front reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, ADP, pending home sales, Chicago PMI, plus the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: new home sales, monthly payrolls, ISM, consumer sentiment, wholesale inventories and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s highlights: SOTU address and ISM services. Plus the ECRI continued to rebound for the third week in a row, after a low of -6.5%. Best to your week!
LONG TERM: 80% uptrend probability
As noted in previous weekend reports going back to September, we have been tracking several selected foreign markets. We had noted they had turned bearish well ahead of the US market. Then when the US market turned bearish in October they were all aligned. As the US market was selling off in December, for the worse December since 1931, these markets were displaying signs of being in their last bear market downtrend. In January some were confirming uptrends off that low. Now we have Australia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and S. Korea all in confirmed uptrends. We concentrated on Asia for obvious reasons.
We have a data base of DOW weekly charts, labeled in OEW terms, going back to the year 1900. It has been a great reference over the years. I actually first did this work back in the early 1980’s. Recently we uncovered an interesting long term wave relationship. In recent times, between the end of one Primary III and the beginning of the next Primary III has been exactly 16 years. In example; 1933-1949, 1966-1982 and 2000-2016. The previous set, and we question the DOW data prior to 1921, was 1916-1933 – 17 years. There should no longer be any doubt we are in Primary III.
The weekly chart remains unchanged except for the update of a tentative green Major 2 to a standard black Major 2 labeling. That positive RSI divergence looks fairly compelling right now. A Super cycle wave 2 ended in 2009. Then a Primary I bull market lasted from 2009-2015. The Primary II bear market that followed was relatively short and bottomed in 2016. After that we had a five wave Major 1 bull market to 2018. And recently a Major 2 bear market from October – December 2018. An Intermediate wave i of Major wave III bull market should now be underway.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
We have been tracking five criteria to help us determine if the Xmas low was the bottom, or a retest of that low will be required. The five criteria were detailed in last weekends update. Currently four of the five criteria are positive: largest rally since bear market began, NDX/NAZ impulse wave, 14+% advance of the lows, and this week NYAD above 37%. The only factor left is an impulsive SPX/DOW. It looks impulsive, but it has not been quantified as five waves just yet – still three. This is the reason for the 80% probable long term uptrend.
The medium term uptrend was confirmed this week. As a result we have labeled the Xmas low at SPX 2347 as Major wave 2. This uptrend should be Minor wave 1 of an Intermediate wave i bull market. We have only labeled two waves thus far, with a third underway: 2520-2444-2717. This chart is where we are looking to quantify five waves in this uptrend.
One last note. We have been tracking the SOX index nearly from inception – 1994. We first wrote about this index on the blog in 2010: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/sox-index-update/. It appears, yet again, a 2-year cycle low bottomed for the SOX in December 2018. Often this leads to an explosive move in this index to the upside, i.e. 2016-2018. Sometimes it doesn’t make much of a move at all, i.e. as noted on the chart in that writeup. In either case a 2-year cycle low for the Semi’s is often a good sign for growth stocks.
SHORT TERM
The short term count doesn’t look much different on the hourly chart from last week to this – except for higher prices. The reason, as we noted above, is that we have not been able to quantify more than three waves. We have been able to quantify the very short term movements on what we call the squiggle chart – first presented last weekend.
Just two new waves this week. The selloff to SPX 2624 on Monday, then the uptrend high at SPX 2717 on Friday. Thus far it looks like we have completed Minute waves i and ii, Micro waves 1 and 2, and Nano waves i, ii, iii and iv, with v underway. When Nano wave v (gray) concludes, it will also end Micro wave 3 (orange). Then we should see a sizeable pullback for Micro 4 before the SPX rallies to a higher high to complete Micro 5 and Minute iii (green). After that we should see even a larger pullback for Minute iv before the uptrend ends at higher highs to complete Minor wave 1.
Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral after putting in a negative divergence at the SPX 2717 high. Best to your trading the Rock Star FED speak week!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian market for the week were mostly higher and gained 0.6%.
European markets were mixed and gained 0.3%.
The DJ World index gained 1.3%, and the NYSE gained 1.7%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.4%.
Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 2.9%.
Gold also remains in an uptrend and gained 1.9%.
Bitcoin is in a choppy uptrend but lost 3.3%.
The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.
NEXT WEEK
Monday: factory orders. Tuesday: ISM services. Wednesday: trade deficit. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and consumer credit. Friday: wholesale inventories. Plus there are five FED governor speeches and the State of the Union address.
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
Added four more charts to stock charts: CRON, DELL, EXAS and HYRE.
Number of Trading Days it took from the start of each Bear Market for the Nasdaq to erase a 20% decline…
Investor’s Intelligence Sentiment as of 2/5:
Bulls: 48.6% vs 45.8%
Bears: 20.6% vs 20.6%
Correction Camp: 30.8% vs 33.6%
Tony you told us to remind you when we see political posts so you can take care of it. Don’t the last 2 posts by Gary Leibowitz qualify as such for deletion?
agree
might be easier to delete Gary
Disagree
Get him !!!!!
Yeah, because we certainly wouldn’t want political posts concerning trade and tariffs to distract from important market moving topics such as french toast, maple syrup, and Cracker Barrel.
Friends like to have a joke once in a while Michael. Maybe someday you’ll have one and can try it out.
lol
😀
deleted thank you
+1
S&P 500 Index – the long and the short of it…
https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/02/s-500-index.html
ES 60 minute chart showing the largest 50 limit orders at price, as of this pic in time. and what is the markets function… to facilitate orders. real heavy in blue above price. https://gyazo.com/fd81843b3d6738a1d06b2d06cac9f238
does that mean they are stop loss buy orders above the market ?
Phil, Limit orders, It does not matter if they are buy or sell. the market does both..lol
how does knowing this help you
if you dont know if they are to buy or sell?
You know when there is a buyer of a contract at the same there is a seller its equal. its when the large volume of buyer or sellers at a price level that moves the market. If you will a pressure or attraction. when you zoom into the single price level that has a large order standing it will act as resistance or support first.
That is what moves a market, buyer and sellers. that is why I have volume on my chart that is showing me the volume that was purchased at that price level, that interest or lack of interest determines support and resistance.
ok thanks
gary
the only thing that matters to me is 2742.5 es
because until that is hit
i am in limbo and cant move the chains forward
for another set of downs and push stops up
1597 tic chart of ES, case in point price is hanging out at the POC. Point of control it is the largest volume of price of this cluster of volume at a given time. until there is an attraction or pressure to move it away it hovers there. https://gyazo.com/d29b884da58711c5eb049c1d1409d95d
What was the other big event? Thanks
Does anyone know why the semis are up so strongly today?
Company-specific?
Industry data/news?
SWKS missed on earnings but jumped 11%
MX jumped 10%
Earnings are great, perhaps just better than expected is all that matters right now with semis…..
* “earnings are NOT great”
UGAZ
FAS
TVIX
ERX
You long the first two at least Fiona? If we’re due to go higher cycle wise tomorrow then I expect FAS will likely continue higher. I saw a target somewhere before of 90 or so!
Alex I have FAS up to 103
ERX up to 25
Think UGAZ has made a bottom….
TVIX….in and out…
Do well…x…
Muy bien!
https://imgur.com/nALmNik
Seems almost everyone is looking higher……a LOT of
complacency here as the Old Newbie would say
Scotty you’re trying to force your bias on the market. Complacency is strength and it is is what builds bull markets and it’s why Newbie is wrong most of the time. SPX is down 5 but the VIX is down almost 2%. Only getting 15-29 points out of -D and only getting to neutral, not even oversold. That’s strength.
15-20…not 29
Nope…just the 200 dma
ATM, we’re down 4 points on the /ES.
0.14%
Dips are being bought.
You may need to copy/paste this irrationality into a notepad document and repost when we hit 2800, Gary.
(when clicking POST COMMENT, 2 points down. 0.07%)
Hope it does hit 2800. Timeline is short however. Jolly good. A new bull wave is here for decades to come according to EW.
This is rather fitting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCdWVa2p2_Q
whole lotta nuthin between 22 and 43 es gary
had my french toast this am
watched it like a hawk this time
see ya tomorrow
2722/2738 High base or consolidation your choice until a break out. Whats for breakfast tomorrow? I hope its not french toast or it be sounding like a story about green eggs and ham.
Fake or real maple syrup?
the bottle reads…
100% pure grade A dark maple syrup
Tell me you heat it up like they do at Cracker Barrel 🙂
All still Cool for the Bulls, Shorting or closing of longs not required. Aimho Glta.

Es futz 5 x min cont
only way i know how to count this is that was an A down in B up to fail around 2741 then down big. Agree with Phill if over 2741 on our way to 2780. so we shall see shortly i suppose
Still a BTFD market……buyers see a small drop as a great opportunity….more and more tech stocks hitting all time highs. Doesn’t seem like it wants to go down…..see it moving to 2800 range now…..we could be seeing another V
ES headed to possible pivot above the 2724 level and make it all good again. or this consolidation just sucks to trade at the moment.
2724 bounced twice to the tick
still need push thru 2743 to launch rocket
Phil, can you explain why it breaks the 61.8% line at 2724 then if it jumps to new high. how does the DH system work properly ?
i always draw most agg ext
here is the most conservative
it held
purp, email me.
tc2000.stockman@gmail.com
Observation only…IMHO, on the 1 minute chart, EW completed a 5 wave pattern at 10:07 AM,EST. Coming into a 50% Long will it hold?
11:07 AM….and it’s holding so far
EW count broke…there are 3 short term targets below…
1. SPX should retest today’s low,
2. phils 61.8% Ext. long
3. my target at 2707.75
Going to work out…a couple of scalp trades, $$ for the day.
Phil – Agree Strongly, and I have 80% conviction that it will happen, am expecting fast and sharp up to es 2810/12. GL.
no on ES it broke 24 and hit 22
see my post below
extension still good
2743 target still good
look for panic buying above 2753
“Calling all Bears” at that point to trigger their Millennial FOMO Syndrome. he he
yes but still not time for bearburgers on the grill
until 2743 is pushed thru first TA
until then ….. rocket remains on the launch pad
DT and going South sorry DH
actual money behind that or just talk?
Targeting 2530s lets see
?…Currently, no such analysis according to DH or me ( I think for phil as well but I’ll let him speak for himself). /ES would have to break a number of measured moves long first, before these levels appear on the radar screen.
If /ES trades to 2530, I’ll eat page 1 of DH’s book on the corner of Wall Street and Broadway the day after it hits that level…LOL
Tony -D on the 60?
don’t see one
You got it
FTSE I’m heavy short again now.. basically 7200 is the limit for the bear, below there and this is likely just a retrace. Needs to break 7070-7110 area to confirm. Above 7200 I would have to be bullish until proven otherwise
If Mohammed took the effort to push the mountain this far I don’t see why he would not use the apparently trivial effort it would take him to push it with one finger to 2775-2780+ because the real drama will be at 2800-2820.
The only issue is time.
Okay. I’m using the Mohamed and the mountain metaphor, and not pushing religion (just so the church-goers understand 🙂 ).
Somehow I don’t think the market has a “let’s oblige shorts” rule in effect all the time. That would defeat its purpose — which is to annoy everybody. Call it Leibowitzopathy. 🙂
FTSE has already done the equivalent retrace which is why it’s a low risk swing short entry.. tomorrow will tell, Bank of England meeting and needs to break 7200 to turn things positive
https://screenshots.firefox.com/HgsfpResqE0Znlo6/bullmarkets.co
T R O U B L E

Screen capture problem
if we dont hit 2739 es target pronto
there is going to be TROUBLE … scotty
Yes I agree the 200 DMA if it holds and we start to sell off …..could open the flood gates
not only that …
severe loss of mojo today
unless its giddyups pronto
not interested in longs ….
below 2724
support drops to 2700.5 es
and below there 3 of 3 would be kaput in my book
Shorted 2733.
hey rick
what are you doing with silver now?
Right now just waiting and watching…I’m thinking it should run up one more time before a bigger drop, but that remains to be seen.
Thanks Tony for cleaning up that mess.
es
2743 then 2751 targets
bull above 2728
2724 extension long support .. red flag if broken
Good morning all. Interesting trading in the overnight session. There was an old anchor at /ES 2716 that this algorithm attached itself to….after the fact? You can think of this as a new extension long setup…but might be playing semantics here. It’s not really part of this set up and that’s why I often state, knowing what anchors to use is an art and a science. If it trades and it defends, you have to use it until the setup breaks.
Anyway, as you can see in the chart, if we use the low anchor at 2716 and yesterday’s high as the high anchor, a 61.8% long at 2724.31 was tested and defended to the tick. As long as /ES stays above 2724.31, the target for this set up is the profit target at /ES 2742.88. Conversely, if /ES trades below 2724.31, I expect additional decline to the next 50% long setup.
Bottom line /ES 2724.31…bullish above and bearish below.
Thanks, ASA.
Interestingly, there’s nothing on my charts at the /ES 2724 level.
It is either in no-man’s land (away from moving averages; BB) on some timeframes or spiking through the 40pma and BB on other timeframes.
Therefore, “to the tick” hit indicates that someone’s watching the ext fib DH levels. 😀
Stock..2716 was an old anchor that was breached early yesterday afternoon.. Late yesterday, /ES printed a new higher high. Therefore that old anchor comes back into play, it re-establishes itself. Hence the setup in the chart.
asa
most conservative draw has ext long still good at 27 22
target at 2743 is still good
no excuses … the am low MUST hold
Are you suggesting that I am now the rogue trader?…LOL
I appreciate Tony’s views, always good guidance..btw, did anyone see these STATS from OddSTATS on Twitter…wow.
OH, HELLO BULLS
17 of the first 23 $SPX trading days of 2019 have been positive.
That (or better) hasn’t happened since 1976.
Want to know how every year did (since 1923) with at least 17 positive days out of the first 23?
Sorry, bears.
Link did not carry, let’s try that again
😀
Bought dips with 20 points today
Nobody cares.
https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=24a7c5d0-5bf0-4729-832f-2d859308eeb8&mime=pdf&co=raymondjames&id=ECM-ResearchDistribution@RJLAN.RJF.com&source=mail
Thanks Chris Kimble and Raymond James
Thanks Tony.
This work by Mahler has been recorded by Bernstein, von Karajan and others, but no recording beats this one by Klemperer in my opinion.
Christa Ludwig and Fritz Wunderlich are outstanding, made all the more poignant with the death of Wunderlich a few months later.
The fact that Klemperer bears a passing resemblance to my father is purely coincidental..x
Tony, If todays high on es holds then we could be headed to 2370s. This is a significant level.
Here is the chart
Ended the day on a 38% line. Does anyone ever trade off of SOTU addresses? I’m feeling a pullback is due but would assume positive spins tonight and buyers tomorrow. Just wondering
History is actually negative after the SOTU….look at last year 8 days…… down real hard
http://quantifiableedges.com/historical-performance-following-state-of-the-union-addresses/?aaReferenceFrom=mcverryreport.com
Thanks bud…good info
Good evening all. Just saw Phil’s chart and I am in agreement with him. DH is using a slightly different low anchor so I have the 50% long at /ES 2707.75. It’s just a bit more conservative… I will keep both setups in mind tomorrow.
Currently/ES is again trading in no mans land (getting to sound like a broken record please no off color remarks…LOL), in between a long profit target at 2751 and a 50% long at 2707.75.
This time I slightly favor a pullback for a number of reasons:
1. Trading around Tony’s pivot.
2. Looks like a double top or dial “M” for murder.
3. Looks like a 5 wave pattern may have completed. So a 50% pullback of this 5 wave pattern could materialize.
4. /ES hasn’t tested of a larger 50% measured move long recently.
5. This afternoons pullback broke a small extension long.
6. Tony’s 10 minute chart looks like micro 3 it’s close to completing if it hasn’t done so already.
Bottom line /ES 2700.67 bullish above and bearish below. Trade the tape you get, not what you hope for.
Forgot #7 /VX May have found temp, minor support at $15.95 and has started a counter trend rally which is bearish for stocks, at least on a short term basis. If /VX rallies to it’s 50% short at $16.93, I expect /ES to test it’s 50% long or perhaps a Phil 38 special. DH chart my analysis?
SPX
….. WAVE 3 = WAVE 1 at 2942
123 is abc…..
until it isnt
pushing the boll band up
embedded stochastics
its 3 of 3 … till it isnt
2 hour chart
straight up above 2699 SPX
Phil, No guessing. Our Main Man Tony, has 1 and 2 already showing and waiting on wave 3 to end. Don’t put your hand over the nail when Tony’s swinging the hammer, your going to get hammered. lol. Just kidding.
i understand tonys count gary
even tho i am an oew novice
but i see 2677 spx as a complete wave
so to me this is either wave 1 or wave a
so either way i am looking for all time highs with a=c or 1=3
i actually think we will burst thru the high and reach 1.618 level
but the extension will have to hold at 2699 spx
until Ms market tells me this is wrong
its my story and im stickin to it
phil your minor 2 looks too shallow. But what the heck do i know…
as i said it could be wave b and not 2 …
still looking for all time high either way purp
see above
Tony, ANyway Micro 3 could be at 2672 micro 4 2624 and now in micro 5 up to 2788?
Micro 3 is still within the reach of the 2731 pivot.
But if it breaks thru that too, the 2780 pivot is next
I’m thinking we need to put in a higher high right up to the 200 day and create some neg divergence before the pullback
there we go…neg divergence right at the 200 day
Cr to CBZ
I realize you have to monitor and adjust, but this guy adjusts 180 degrees three times a week on long term outlooks.
FWIW, since Jan 18th, he is no longer looking for a deep correction, hence bullish. He has been bullish since Mar 2009 Lows in a secular bull market.
Your right, Travis ….but EW is like many other ways to trade….subject to change and whipsaw.
There are always 4 or 5 different “Counts” floating around. All with a reason while they should have the right one. It is not an exact science ……There are too many computers pushing things around with billions at their disposal……thats what your fighting against.
The markets are going where the computers push them. Thats what your up against.
Al Brooks Thinks a 50% Retrace is Coming
“After an early trading range, yesterday entered a Small Pullback Bull Trend. Furthermore, Friday was a pause after a 2-day breakout. The odds favor at least a 1 – 2 day rally from there.
But, the daily chart is in a buy climax. In addition, the Emini is above the December 12 crash high. This is therefore the sell zone. Consequently, the Emini’s month-long rally will probably end this week.
Since the rally was strong, the bulls will probably buy a 2 – 3 week, 50% selloff. There is support around the February 2018 low and 2,500. The odds favor the pullback starting either this week or next. The first target is the 2,600 – 2,650 trading range from 2 weeks ago.
Less likely, this rally will continue up to the October – December triple top without much of a pullback.
Overnight Emini Globex Trading
The Emini is up 6 points in the Globex session. If there is a small gap up, it will probably close in the 1st hour. The huge bull bar at the end of the day was climactic. That increases the odds of a trading range forming early today.
After any relentless trend, like yesterday, there is a 75% chance of a 2-hour trading range that starts by the end of the 2nd hour. But, there is a 50% chance of follow-through buying in the 1st 2 hours. Even if the bulls buy early, there is only a 25% chance of a 2nd big bull day.
Last week was the 6th consecutive bull bar on the weekly chart. That is unusual. Therefore, it would be even more unusual for this week to be a 7th bull bar. Consequently, despite yesterday’s rally, there is at least a 50% chance that Friday will close below yesterday’s open. That would create a bear body on the weekly chart.”
Boeing looks like an exhaustion gap if I’ve ever seen one…………..40% move from low……………awesome company but come on
Probably going to gap up over the crucial MA and head up to 2775 and give all the equally crucial people some heartburn. 🙂 That might be a point of max pain. But we’ll know soon either way.
Sentiment seems to be bearish wherever I look.
UWT (long oil) up to 20….check your charts…stop
UGAZ…trying it here…bid filled…if it works, quite a bit higher…stop…x
“Contrariwise” continued Tweedledee, if it was so, it might be, and if it were so , it would be, but as it isn’t, it ain’t” That’s logic.
FAS (long financials)
ERX (long oil and gas)
well is it a gap fill and 1 more attempt at a rally? Will soon see
well we either fail at around the 200 day 2741 or blast thru towards 2780. place your bets
Stocks have been up sharply past several weeks, based on the hugely accepted inference that the FED (Jerome Powell) “pivoted” in his plan to unwind the last 10 years of Quantitative Easing
Watch here, at 6:15, Former Fed Gov Richard Fisher clearly states that Chairman Powell never said that.
How these two former Fed officials think Jay Powell is doing as Fed
Hmm…
We won’t have to wait long to find out what the deal is. The tell will be in how much QT the Fed does this month, beginning next Friday. They have enough maturing assets to do the full $50bn this month. If they do the whole thing, then it will be safe to conclude that nothing has changed.
FED should just keep “rolling off” the portfolio.
I am convinced that the single biggest beneficiaries of QE has been officers of public companies. They can borrow money cheaply, buy back their own stock, bragg to the BOD what a great job they are doing. Then they get awarded 144 stock in lieu of the stock just bought back.
And who gets hurt? Small investors.CD buyers, etc.
This is a scam and Jim Cramer is the main clown.
The FED’s job is
1) stable dollar
2) help to maximize employment stats
Not a FED job:
1) prevent recessions.
Let’s just get the recession started, and get it over with.
Then we will still have a functioning bond market, which Japan has no longer, from doing this nonsense for decades.
You are not wrong. I left an $8b company last year and they were able to use their cash for buybacks, raised the stock 50%, and sold off huge chunks of stock as execs. My ceo was paid $8m annually in stock options. Another guy retired with 2m shares. I had a little myself but nothing like theirs obviously. All the while cutting costs by eliminating associates and lowering services. I work with F100s and this is pretty common.
I still think lock limit down is coming to an overpriced stock that may be near and dear to you as in we are done with 5 waves up from 1932…. If not we are in the last wave up from 2009…. It can top straight up in the next month or two in a blow off or a grinder ED ending in 2021…. When it ends I think that will be Tonys wave 1 with 2 to come, probably more realistic…. Of course that assumes the last low was P4, maybe….. Maybe just A and we are in B and C will complete a wave 2 complex flat….

Simple chart, bulls are toast below 2780….
And bears have zip above 2575….
from 2697
w2 2708/2699 9pts
now w4?
2738/2728 10pts
5=1 is 2739
watching for -D on 60
NYAD cumulative went from—- 1151 positive net advances to 125 pos
Markets closing flat / negative. Best day to exit all stocks for me 🙂 huge downside awaiting
Russell just went red……bonds and gold up…..hmmmm
https://imgur.com/Qt3FdWH
https://imgur.com/zgffrKP
SPX – looks toppy at 2737
Ya know, IF, a Bear market was to begin, or soon begin. I expect Mr C. will define it.
Both in time and price. Mr C. is the best there is – when it comes to investing in the SP500 market, as well as other market…..I am Bud Fox
It’s not a bear market nor is this a bullmarket….it has turned into a BTFD market again. Machines are in and are buying every 1 point handle drop …..crazy
Interesting description of SP………
some day SP support is 2632….I can live with that number….
O
M
G
S&P just dropped 6 handles….buy of the century the algo says!!!!
Thks….Like to get the Terminator series. suppose WMT has ’em
FTSE breaking out… turns me longer term bullish if we see 7200. Needs to hold above 7070-7110 area on pullbacks. Odd with this fundamental backdrop but guess they don’t matter as long as the fed stay easy