Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +435

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets lost 0.7%, and the European markets gained 0.7%. The SPX started the week at 2665. After a gap down opening on Monday the SPX hit 2624 and then started to rally. Tuesday had a flat opening and the market finished at SPX 2640. Wednesday had a gap up opening, and the SPX hit 2690, a new high for the uptrend, before closing at 2681.

The short term chart we offered over the weekend continues to squiggle along. We’re accepting the SPX 2672 level as a small fifth wave failure, as the DOW made a new high that day, and the market sold off afterwards on Monday. At SPX 2624 it completed a small 4th wave ‘iv’ and now has rallied to a new high at SPX 2690 for a small ‘v’. It currently looks like the market needs a pullback, and then another new high to complete the third wave up from the SPX 2347 low. Then a sizable pullback for wave 4, should lead to one more new high to end the uptrend.

Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend 99% probable

LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

NOTE: starting tomorrow, any blog post with the name Trump, Pelosi or Schumer in it will get deleted. If I forget remind me. thank you

About tony caldaro

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461 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. quickrick38 says:

    Updated Silver count; I should have gone back and changed the subwaves to roman numerals but I was too lazy. And, Yes, Phil I shorted silver. Retraces in silver have been very deep but with this impulsive move up, it remains to be seen whether or not that continues into this new year. There are 5 micro waves down following the ‘B’ wave which could be either a wave 1 of ‘C’ or an ‘A’ wave. Taking no chances I got out of shorts late Friday until I see how it behaves from here.

    • quickrick38 says:

      PS I hate the ‘abc’ 5th waves we’ve been seeing a lot of. In this case it’s the wave 5 of 3. But, after awhile you have to look at the count and say, “Yep, that’s what it is.”.

    • Billy says:

      Rick see my silver chart on “Weekend update”.

  2. lunker1 says:

    I’ve got 11 up from 2624 so maybe one more HH to make 13. Wave 2 was 20 (2651/31) and wave 12 just dropped 20 from 2727 so those match up. Anything >= 22 (orange 2) could be orange 4. Greater than 62 (red 4) could be green 4 but greater than 70 (2468/2398) would be better confirmation.

  3. phil1247 says:

    inital bond short target hit
    look to reshort a bounce next week

  4. rksleung says:

    Qqq going back to retest the breakout around 166 before another leg up?

  5. To Tony and the OEW graduates…

    Has there been any discussion:
    1. about deleting the nano degree gray .
    2. moving the orange micro degree waves to the gray 1 and 2.
    3. The recent decline (last Friday and Monday/Tuesday this week) was orange micro wave 4
    3. therefore, SPX is trading in orange micro wave 5 of minute wave iii.
    4. if you want you can relabel the red pico degree waves to gray nano

    Seems to fit better, as in not forced. Looks cleaner, especially the orange micro 1 and 2 waves with wave 2 having a cleaner zig-zag. Micro wave 4 could be a triangle…alternation? Wave count doesn’t seem to violate any rules that I know of but I am not the expert, you guys are.

  6. Mary773 says:

    Five waves up to the .618 retracement with negative divergence on good news. Well, here it is bears. Theoretically, this should be a lay up. Let’s see what you got.

  7. I am anxiously awaiting the next big bet. the next steep drop will catch everyone off guard. we have extended to the upper limits in my mind. Earnings is about over, good external news also about over. I will (once again) try to front run the drop. I anticipate a steep drop so even if I get it wrong I can take the losses in anticipation of the final result. It worked these last 3 months very well. If however we stay in this malaise all traders gets screwed. February should be the most explosive moth yet. If that turns out to be wrong than I will most likely conclude the bear is dead.

    Best scenario is a drop accelerating after February 5th.

    • torehund says:

      Next top will catch some attention, look no further than China. Not saying I am right, but I could be 🙂 Happy weekend Gary.

      • The silence today is deafening. I take it the talks didn’t exactly get resolved. Fool me once… but fool me 125 times? Weekend wonder. Either all the indices that are way extended spike Monday or they start deflating. Right at close I caught the HUGE rise for my placement of Puts. Will this work? No clue other than everything seems extended and the inability to break over 2720 on the great news of trade and employment suggests exhaustion. How do we reconcile no rate hikes if the bulls think the economy is doing fine? Add to that the HUGE employment numbers these last few months. Housing dropped like a stone with these types of job creation? Are they all hired to watch the borders with a whistle?

    • scottycj1 says:

      Heres a very explosive Moth

    • vivelaamo says:

      Aren’t you bankrupt yet?

  8. lunker1 says:

    Tony does NASDAQ have 7 waves up now and does that remove a checkmark for the bull case?

  9. Alexey Belevitch says:

    mcgcapital….with most assets price dictates supply value and demand value…. what i was getting at is that regardless of the cost of mining, the supply is limited to predetermined value which goes down exponensially, at this point is negligible, and eventually finite….17.2 mil already mined in 10 years ..3.8 mil left to mine over the course of 120 years….

  10. torehund says:

    Shanghai had a good session, hope the bottom doesnt fall out of it…
    Good weekend Tony and all !

  11. fxaprendiz says:

    So the January candlestick was an extraordinary save but still couldn’t retrace fully the December candle. It all seems aligned for a bumpy ride this year again within a wide range.
    Investors nightmare, nimble traders paradise.

    Really I feel like I can’t contribute much more as things are now. I have said maybe half a dozen times what I think about no recession this year, we probably still within Primary wave 4, and that once it’s done then Primary 5 up until year 2022.

    The short term is anybody’s guess as long as we’re still within wave 4 and the volatility remains elevated.

    So, as I don’t want to trade the remaining squiggles I’ll probably wait for Primary wave 5.

    This is my way of saying I might not write much during the next weeks and months.
    Will keep reading you guys though. Well the ones that are worth reading that is…

  12. lml25 says:

    Here’s the diff between GDX and SPX.Both could bullishly embed again with a good day today.Central banks back equities and not gold/GDX.We see the results,though it is the first of the month also,there is a push to get equities higher.For some reason if equities reverse– like GDX has—I’ll chime in again.(yes I know GDX hit the bb,but if it was backed by the right algos,wouldn’t matter) Otherwise the script is being written by Fed hands.GL all.

  13. vipulm555 says:

    Bought Amzn truck load on this beautiful gift today
    Now own 3000 shares

    Cheers

  14. fionamargaret says:

    $SPX to 3209
    $WTIC to 79

    Numbers changed from 1850, to 2750 right after the V turn, and yes I was mocked for saying the sequence had changed. (seems to me others can change their ideas every few minutes). Hope AAPL recovers from being sick…it never was.
    Now the sequence is up to 3209 and oil to 79., but the 5 minute guy will take credit..,

    • fionamargaret says:

      Now don’t ask me how to make money off the information (which seems to be a problem for some). It is what it is. Expand your thinking.

      • this seems to be similar to Tony’s — “MEDIUM TERM: uptrend 99% probable”, yet some caution for a maybe small pullback

      • fionamargaret says:

        We could discuss “spin axis drift” – real problems – for which there is no finite answer. The redistribution of mass affects the planet’s rotation.
        As temperatures increased in the 20th century, Greenland’s mass decreased… ice melting into the ocean…sea levels rising…causing a drift in Earth’s spin axis.
        Calculations on this…. 4/inches/year ….11 yards per 100 years.
        What does this mean…higher and lower temperatures….spin axis drift.
        Maybe you want an update every five minutes.

        Someone who has to post every few minutes has very recognizable problems,…..and you should take back your blog where everyone can discuss, and let intelligence prevail.

        • Global warming? I think not. The latest data is showing twice the amount of ice lost in the caps. Using my abacus and severe global weather changes I conclude its all a hoax by the Chinese. Personally I love the taste and feel of coal. I majored in Geology. It became my favorite rock even though at the time I thought it was my favorite mineral.

          But wait there is more good news. the magnetic flip is due any century now, as is the eruption of the mega-volcano called Yellowstone. I am buying beach front property on cliffs. That way when the deluge comes it will be a small gently sloped walk to the ocean.

    • fionamargaret says:

      BA to 597

    • lunker1 says:

      Why the incessant desire to jab him?
      Leave it alone.
      Just focus on yourself.

      • Every Wocky needs to be Jabbed. Even just a little.

        What good would Jabberwocky be without this?

        What good is a world without uffish thought from slithy toves ? 🙂

  15. good job bulls, Enjoy your friday and drift to 2724-2731 im off to the greatest show on earth. The pxh open. 200k-250K people compared to the Masters were there are only 25K people a day. Crazy place to watch golf on the 16th hole. Enjoy your weekend

    • A good friend of mine grew up with Bryson DeChambeau’s coach Mike Schy down in Fresno and has spent a lot of time with Bryson. Bryson won the Dubai Classic last weekend and is in Saudi Arabia this weekend for the Saudi International.

      So I guess I will have to root for Rickie Fowler in Phoenix.
      I believe he is tied for 6th at – 7.

      My best buddy Scott Slover coached Fowler’s fiancee Allison in the pole vault at my alma-mater (Cal) where I was a volunteer. We did a road trip up to Eugene in 2012 for the U.S. Olympic Trials together. Great gal, has her masters, done some fit-modeling, I think they will be very happy together!

      🙂

  16. phil1247 says:

    CL

    shorts broken

    straight up now
    someone said there is some kind of correlation to something here ?

    i dont know 😉

  17. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX has entered the 2710-2812 area that I highlighted as resistance in my latest chart. There’s further resistance up to 2873.

    It should be no surprise to anyone, bulls and bears alike if SPX bumps up and down within this wide zone for a few weeks.

    Whether this upswing from 2347 is a wave X within Primary 4 or a wave 1 up of some degree is yet to be seen. In either case a pullback of some sort would be logical after spending some time in the resistance area.

    I feel like all this is or should be obvious to everyone in here so I’ll try to keep quiet now.

    Trade safe guys.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      P.S. the SPX can bump within the resistance zone OR in and out of it first, depending how strong the initial resistance is.

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