SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +435
For the first three days of the week the Asian markets lost 0.7%, and the European markets gained 0.7%. The SPX started the week at 2665. After a gap down opening on Monday the SPX hit 2624 and then started to rally. Tuesday had a flat opening and the market finished at SPX 2640. Wednesday had a gap up opening, and the SPX hit 2690, a new high for the uptrend, before closing at 2681.
The short term chart we offered over the weekend continues to squiggle along. We’re accepting the SPX 2672 level as a small fifth wave failure, as the DOW made a new high that day, and the market sold off afterwards on Monday. At SPX 2624 it completed a small 4th wave ‘iv’ and now has rallied to a new high at SPX 2690 for a small ‘v’. It currently looks like the market needs a pullback, and then another new high to complete the third wave up from the SPX 2347 low. Then a sizable pullback for wave 4, should lead to one more new high to end the uptrend.
Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought at today’s high. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend 99% probable
LONG TERM: uptrend 80% probable
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
NOTE: starting tomorrow, any blog post with the name Trump, Pelosi or Schumer in it will get deleted. If I forget remind me. thank you
Updated Silver count; I should have gone back and changed the subwaves to roman numerals but I was too lazy. And, Yes, Phil I shorted silver. Retraces in silver have been very deep but with this impulsive move up, it remains to be seen whether or not that continues into this new year. There are 5 micro waves down following the ‘B’ wave which could be either a wave 1 of ‘C’ or an ‘A’ wave. Taking no chances I got out of shorts late Friday until I see how it behaves from here.
PS I hate the ‘abc’ 5th waves we’ve been seeing a lot of. In this case it’s the wave 5 of 3. But, after awhile you have to look at the count and say, “Yep, that’s what it is.”.
Rick see my silver chart on “Weekend update”.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/as_goes_january…_really/
Thanks Tom McClellan.
The master bubble chart, (best viewed with campaign and caviar dreams =)
I’ve got 11 up from 2624 so maybe one more HH to make 13. Wave 2 was 20 (2651/31) and wave 12 just dropped 20 from 2727 so those match up. Anything >= 22 (orange 2) could be orange 4. Greater than 62 (red 4) could be green 4 but greater than 70 (2468/2398) would be better confirmation.
2717 not 2727
inital bond short target hit
look to reshort a bounce next week
Qqq going back to retest the breakout around 166 before another leg up?
To Tony and the OEW graduates…
Has there been any discussion:
1. about deleting the nano degree gray .
2. moving the orange micro degree waves to the gray 1 and 2.
3. The recent decline (last Friday and Monday/Tuesday this week) was orange micro wave 4
3. therefore, SPX is trading in orange micro wave 5 of minute wave iii.
4. if you want you can relabel the red pico degree waves to gray nano
Seems to fit better, as in not forced. Looks cleaner, especially the orange micro 1 and 2 waves with wave 2 having a cleaner zig-zag. Micro wave 4 could be a triangle…alternation? Wave count doesn’t seem to violate any rules that I know of but I am not the expert, you guys are.
deleting the nano degree gray waves….
only discussion has been about counting the series of 1-2’s around mid-December as an expanding diagonal
other than that it’s not pretty, but it’s quantified
Five waves up to the .618 retracement with negative divergence on good news. Well, here it is bears. Theoretically, this should be a lay up. Let’s see what you got.
You must not watch a lot of college basketball. You would be amazed how many lay ups the miss or even slam dunks. have a nice weekend Mary. We head higher monday.
Stick with the Hall of Famers:
I am anxiously awaiting the next big bet. the next steep drop will catch everyone off guard. we have extended to the upper limits in my mind. Earnings is about over, good external news also about over. I will (once again) try to front run the drop. I anticipate a steep drop so even if I get it wrong I can take the losses in anticipation of the final result. It worked these last 3 months very well. If however we stay in this malaise all traders gets screwed. February should be the most explosive moth yet. If that turns out to be wrong than I will most likely conclude the bear is dead.
Best scenario is a drop accelerating after February 5th.
Next top will catch some attention, look no further than China. Not saying I am right, but I could be 🙂 Happy weekend Gary.
The silence today is deafening. I take it the talks didn’t exactly get resolved. Fool me once… but fool me 125 times? Weekend wonder. Either all the indices that are way extended spike Monday or they start deflating. Right at close I caught the HUGE rise for my placement of Puts. Will this work? No clue other than everything seems extended and the inability to break over 2720 on the great news of trade and employment suggests exhaustion. How do we reconcile no rate hikes if the bulls think the economy is doing fine? Add to that the HUGE employment numbers these last few months. Housing dropped like a stone with these types of job creation? Are they all hired to watch the borders with a whistle?
Heres a very explosive Moth
Aren’t you bankrupt yet?
Tony does NASDAQ have 7 waves up now and does that remove a checkmark for the bull case?
NDX/NAZ has 5 waves up
last week you said we had 5 waves up and now there is a higher high doesn’t make 7? Or did the quantification of the waves change?
mcgcapital….with most assets price dictates supply value and demand value…. what i was getting at is that regardless of the cost of mining, the supply is limited to predetermined value which goes down exponensially, at this point is negligible, and eventually finite….17.2 mil already mined in 10 years ..3.8 mil left to mine over the course of 120 years….
Just because they’re “only” making 21 million of something doesn’t mean it should have value. It’s fairly useless as a currency because of it’s wildly fluctuating price. Don’t kid yourself. You’re trading tulip bulbs.
its headed for zero as far as i can tell lunker
GBTC looks like a zero as well
im not trading anything….
Trading, buying, investing whatever you wanna collect you are pushing bitcoin big time
im pushing because there is a good reason for it….ur just too square not to see it
ahh so you are pushing it…
The cost of mining is totally irrelevant with something that has no intrinsic value. So finite or not it is just the next greater fool price.
its intristic value is its utility….
It’s utility to do what? It has no stability.
i will not warrant idiotic questions with a response going forward
Utility as a currency? As a device to store wealth? A currency the drops from 20,000 to 3500 is useless. There is no utility in that.
My GBTC is doing well today….
wonder if controllability tests for linear complimentary systems had anything to do with that..
Should be a great game this Weekend!
Let’s see if Brady can continue to be the luckiest QB in history…. or if Cal alum Jared Goff and the All-Pac 12 Team led by Sean McVay can give Belichik and the Pats a run for their money.
🙂
Im out here at 2699/24999…. Don’t care about that game at all, not even a little bit…..
For he Bulls I could see a green close .)
Hope you have a nice weekend, and thanks for the chart help.
Kisses to your crew.
Hi thanks, this is the bull case….. GL and have a nice weekend =)
Lucky for 5 super bowl wins? Blue you’re nuts.,He’s the greatest quarterback of all time.
Shanghai had a good session, hope the bottom doesnt fall out of it…
Good weekend Tony and all !
So the January candlestick was an extraordinary save but still couldn’t retrace fully the December candle. It all seems aligned for a bumpy ride this year again within a wide range.
Investors nightmare, nimble traders paradise.
Really I feel like I can’t contribute much more as things are now. I have said maybe half a dozen times what I think about no recession this year, we probably still within Primary wave 4, and that once it’s done then Primary 5 up until year 2022.
The short term is anybody’s guess as long as we’re still within wave 4 and the volatility remains elevated.
So, as I don’t want to trade the remaining squiggles I’ll probably wait for Primary wave 5.
This is my way of saying I might not write much during the next weeks and months.
Will keep reading you guys though. Well the ones that are worth reading that is…
fix, would you send me an email address. I would like to communicate with you about your market thoughts without tying up the whole blog. tia. billinmemphis@gmail.com
fx
you know i am a long term investor
so i am watching the monthly candles…………………..
from the top ….
bearish engulfing then inside month
next was bearish engulfing candle
then another inside month
wish i had a magic 8 ball
so i could know whats next
You sound bearish , that’s all … lol
Phil, 8 Ball? you know my name is Gary and I get tomorrows paper today….meow
you owe me breakfast wise guy … 🙂
Here’s the diff between GDX and SPX.Both could bullishly embed again with a good day today.Central banks back equities and not gold/GDX.We see the results,though it is the first of the month also,there is a push to get equities higher.For some reason if equities reverse– like GDX has—I’ll chime in again.(yes I know GDX hit the bb,but if it was backed by the right algos,wouldn’t matter) Otherwise the script is being written by Fed hands.GL all.
Bought Amzn truck load on this beautiful gift today
Now own 3000 shares
Cheers
😂 ok Warren
Yesterday he was having a party because he made 30k being long SPX. Today he’s buying $5m of Amazon stock. Clearly a parody account as it’s not consistent
Remember that guy JK or something that was day trading $5m in vix? To each his own
thats almost as funny
as someone who said she has been long since 666 spx
i myself could not pull the trigger until spx 672
…let’s see how your TLT short does……oh, and lawyers don’t debate….
Take Tony’s course, blend in DH…be original..
Hey Travis are you better now?
Yeah bud thanks. Doc couldn’t find anything and got one more gastro check to do. I think I have a hernia that moved up. Thanks for asking
hiatal hernia ?
you got gastric reflux?
Good to hear 👍🏼
$SPX to 3209
$WTIC to 79
Numbers changed from 1850, to 2750 right after the V turn, and yes I was mocked for saying the sequence had changed. (seems to me others can change their ideas every few minutes). Hope AAPL recovers from being sick…it never was.
Now the sequence is up to 3209 and oil to 79., but the 5 minute guy will take credit..,
Now don’t ask me how to make money off the information (which seems to be a problem for some). It is what it is. Expand your thinking.
this seems to be similar to Tony’s — “MEDIUM TERM: uptrend 99% probable”, yet some caution for a maybe small pullback
It must be hard Fi….knowing your so far superior than everyone else.
100% now
wow, maybe 2740 next week
We could discuss “spin axis drift” – real problems – for which there is no finite answer. The redistribution of mass affects the planet’s rotation.
As temperatures increased in the 20th century, Greenland’s mass decreased… ice melting into the ocean…sea levels rising…causing a drift in Earth’s spin axis.
Calculations on this…. 4/inches/year ….11 yards per 100 years.
What does this mean…higher and lower temperatures….spin axis drift.
Maybe you want an update every five minutes.
Someone who has to post every few minutes has very recognizable problems,…..and you should take back your blog where everyone can discuss, and let intelligence prevail.
Global warming? I think not. The latest data is showing twice the amount of ice lost in the caps. Using my abacus and severe global weather changes I conclude its all a hoax by the Chinese. Personally I love the taste and feel of coal. I majored in Geology. It became my favorite rock even though at the time I thought it was my favorite mineral.
But wait there is more good news. the magnetic flip is due any century now, as is the eruption of the mega-volcano called Yellowstone. I am buying beach front property on cliffs. That way when the deluge comes it will be a small gently sloped walk to the ocean.
BA to 597
Why the incessant desire to jab him?
Leave it alone.
Just focus on yourself.
Every Wocky needs to be Jabbed. Even just a little.
What good would Jabberwocky be without this?
What good is a world without uffish thought from slithy toves ? 🙂
good job bulls, Enjoy your friday and drift to 2724-2731 im off to the greatest show on earth. The pxh open. 200k-250K people compared to the Masters were there are only 25K people a day. Crazy place to watch golf on the 16th hole. Enjoy your weekend
A good friend of mine grew up with Bryson DeChambeau’s coach Mike Schy down in Fresno and has spent a lot of time with Bryson. Bryson won the Dubai Classic last weekend and is in Saudi Arabia this weekend for the Saudi International.
So I guess I will have to root for Rickie Fowler in Phoenix.
I believe he is tied for 6th at – 7.
My best buddy Scott Slover coached Fowler’s fiancee Allison in the pole vault at my alma-mater (Cal) where I was a volunteer. We did a road trip up to Eugene in 2012 for the U.S. Olympic Trials together. Great gal, has her masters, done some fit-modeling, I think they will be very happy together!
🙂
CL
shorts broken
straight up now
someone said there is some kind of correlation to something here ?
i dont know 😉
I did say that yesterday….develop your own system and come up with original ideas.
Oil is up to 79.
CL aint got nothing below $55 and the target is $42…..
eva
cl long still good but if 54.22 gives way
i would take the money and RUN !
you came within pennies of upper daily boll band
as ira sez.
..the smart money is taking money off the table there
Phil, I posted about the “lock-step” asset correlation yesterday (as well as about a week ago but my comment went over several people’s heads who just assume that equity prices, bond yields, and crude oil prices all go up and down together). I believe I had posted that the correlation was the highest its been in quite some time, at 0.8
Bottom line:
“Elevated correlations imply that trades in different asset classes may be essentially equivalent and therefore investors end up in crowded positioning without even realizing it. The subsequent unwinding of these positions may then drive a significant increase in volatility.” – – – Jason Williams, Citigroup
https://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/428507307
see the bottom panel
CORR TNX SPX
https://www.investopedia.com/parallel-moves-in-stocks-bonds-signal-violent-market-swings-ahead-4584700
Highlighting the WSJ article from Jan. 23rd about the highest asset correlations in almost a year.
SPX has entered the 2710-2812 area that I highlighted as resistance in my latest chart. There’s further resistance up to 2873.
It should be no surprise to anyone, bulls and bears alike if SPX bumps up and down within this wide zone for a few weeks.
Whether this upswing from 2347 is a wave X within Primary 4 or a wave 1 up of some degree is yet to be seen. In either case a pullback of some sort would be logical after spending some time in the resistance area.
I feel like all this is or should be obvious to everyone in here so I’ll try to keep quiet now.
Trade safe guys.
P.S. the SPX can bump within the resistance zone OR in and out of it first, depending how strong the initial resistance is.