Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold then rebound, DOW +171

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets lost 0.4%, and the European markets lost 1.3%. US markets were closed Monday, had a gap down opening on Tuesday hitting SPX 2617 before rebounding in the last hour. Then had the above mentioned gap up opening today, which was sold until the SPX made lower low at 2613. Then the market rebounded in the afternoon.

Early Tuesday the end of month US-China trade meeting was reported cancelled. Kudlow came on CNBC in the last hour to say that report was false. Market is obviously still hostage to that important trade deal. Technically. The decline sets up a potential further drop to SPX 2604. This would give the SPX a potential 4th wave as long as it rallies to 2675 afterwards. It could also begin another avalanche if the SPX drops below 2520. This is were the first wave up of this rally ended. Inflection point remains with specific parameters for SPX price now: 2520, 2603, and 2675.

Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and the 2731 pivots. Short term momentum displays a positive divergence at today’s lows. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend 60% probable

LONG TERM: uptrend 60% probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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385 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. aahmichael says:

    Today was another low volume rally that presented another great short setup at the DR3 at 2671, and that was immediately followed by a H3BR at 2662.40. The last 2 weekly candles have now formed the same setup as the daily candles did on 11/7 and 11/8.

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    • stockwaves says:

      Dollar down. Gold and silver up. Both probably related to QT comments.
      The move in silver today was quite impressive – last time US silver market gaped up like this was Dec 24. China continues to dump its Treasury holdings, making big shift to gold last month. Russia also increasing gold holdings. Palladium keeps making new highs. Possible precious metals outperform this year?

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    • xEVAx says:

      LOL lost a few, but I think it’s funny the minute Trump caved and reopened the gov the market tanked…. Can’t make a call either way, something there for everyone on the charts but I like the quiet march higher in the PM’s anyway…. I also like my ST gov bonds….

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  2. Placed half my PUTS at close. Double bet (IF) Monday turns out to be a bust. And away we go……

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  3. There’s no National Emergency at our Southern Border.

    That’s nothing but Fake News from Trump.

    Illegal immigration is at a 13 year low and nearly 22% off the peak.

    Just the Facts. 🙂

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    • I had my Lastec service technician at my house a few months ago. He told me he has contracted TB. His MDs told him that particular strain is prevalent in South America. The service tech got it on his normal service calls (golf courses which employ illegal aliens).
      I just hope I didn’t catch it, (do you care about things like that?)

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      • BTW, people who enter the country illegally get no health checks.
        How can that be a great idea?

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      • Tom, you’ve re-posted this (word for word) 3X. Do you have this “post” saved on your computer so that you can “cut and paste” it for convenience on a number of blogs?

        Viruses and infectious diseases enter this country in multiple ways. You would have to be terribly naïve to think otherwise.

        Tell me, are you going to have doctor’s at our Airports giving health “checks” to anyone who comes into the United States on a plane trip from another country?

        Or just those passengers who have brown skin?

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        • Just check the people who come here to stay.
          That is the only problem of infectious diseases that I am aware of.

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          • Tom, try SARS for starters… which resulted in 774 deaths reported in 37 countries in 2003.

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          • Can you find something relevant for somebody living in the U.S.?

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          • I believe I did in my post above.

            I believe it’s common sense that transmission of any kind of virus or infectious disease doesn’t just (potentially) occur from illegals coming over a border.

            Such infections can be transmitted from travelers who have been abroad and FLYING BACK INTO our Country. That means American citizens Tom, not just “foreigners” or illegals.

            In the case of SARS, there were 72 patients in the United States who had traveled to areas with documented or suspected community transmission of SARS during the 10 days before illness onset.

            36 had traveled to mainland China.

            19 to Hong Kong.

            5 to Singapore.

            3 to Hanoi.

            7 to Toronto.

            1 was a healthcare worker who had provided care to a SARS patient and 1 was a household contact of a SARS patient.

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    • travis01 says:

      You don’t make every law because of what already happened but for what could happen. We spend between 54-200b annually on illegal immigrants. Why not put a thumb in the dam? Just do things the right way. This isn’t 1911. There literally is no valid argument for open borders in 2019. This is 100% an anti Trump issue. Wasn’t a problem when Obama said the same thing, but like everything else he didn’t get it done. Just the facts…

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      • Travis,

        There’s already a 650 mile fence along the Southern Border that spans across much of California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

        It started in the 1990’s and most of it has been there since 2006 and costs $250 million a year to maintain.

        There are 25 Ports of Entry along that border.

        We need “high-tech” solutions. I think that everyone is clearly aware of this…. even Democrats who offered an additional $1.0 Billion in Border Security.

        A wall does nothing about tunnels or the Major Ports of Entry where massive amounts of high-dollar drugs come in.

        That should be obvious.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-trump-mexico-wall/how-much-would-the-wall-cost/

        If this was such a “crisis” and is an Anti-Trump issue as you suggest, then why didn’t the GOP support funding for Trump’s Wall during the first 2 years of his Administration when they had a MAJORITY in BOTH the House and Senate?

        Are you suggesting that Republicans are anti-Trump?

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        • riderbobo says:

          Blame it on Paul Ryan. He should have brought it forward in the first 100 days, but was absolutely useless.

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    • lunker1 says:

      Blue, the facts are this is not a political blog.

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    • torehund says:

      Trend has already turned, next is you need a wall to keep folks from fleeing the west. Its all in the cycles. Well I am always early….

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  4. Dex T says:

    Govt. finally reopens for three weeks

    Trump did an amazing job of keeping closed but the pressure finally grew.

    Will he use the State of the Union to declare a National Emergency?

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    • If Pelosi remains mired in her position of no $$ for a southern wall, he will build it anyway, aka, National Emergency.
      Among the many duties of POTUS is National Security, Chief of Law Enforcement, and protect against foreign invasion. He’s just doing his job.

      I don’t understand all the buzz.

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    • For someone that prides himself in the “Art of The Deal” he failed in epic fashion.

      He essentially agreed to the same spending bill that was agreed upon by both sides of the aisle from Dec. 22nd.

      A 35 day shut-down was a waste of time and screwed up people’s lives for no reason.

      Conservatives like Hannity and Coulter wont be happy.

      Great leaders don’t make these kinds of mistakes.

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      • Dex T says:

        That remains to be seen. If nothing comes of this in the next week then I would agree that it’s a loss for Trump.

        If he declares a National Emergency then he would come out the clear victor and thinks would look like a part of the strategy

        and the shutdown was fine. A small segment of the population was affected but there was a lot of sensationalism from the media.

        the market certainly liked it.

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    • rabbittrader1 says:

      Next stop,for SPX is 2723 then correction to 2647 then up to 3130 as we continue with this powerful 3rd ,of a 3rd, of a third wave in Major 3 of primary III. Spring is on the way . Rabbit.. (Dont try to second geuss T.C. BELIEVE !

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    • lunker1 says:

      Dex this is not a political blog. I’ve never seen you post anything about the stock market short, medium or long term

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  5. Govt. to re-open for 3 weeks.

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    • Looks like Trump caved. There is no money for his Wall. Just further “talks”.

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    • Blue…..Doesn’t look good for Trump. He should have negotiated for at least a down payment towards the wall. However, if you listen carefully to Democrat Senators Warner, Manchin and Coon over the last few days…they are all for additional wall funding but want to see the Gov. open first, as a sign of good faith. hhmmm???? They were hinting of the gang of (20?) Senators that will come together and produce a immigration bill along the lines that Trump announced today over the next three weeks.

      I don’t think Trump will close the Gov. in three weeks and Trump declaring a National emergency and provide funding for the wall by transferring lines item funds to the wall is at least a non starter, until the SCOTUS hears the case, as the Democrats will take Trump to the 9 circuit.

      So, if the Senate can pass a bill that Trump likes, it makes Pelosi irrelevant as there are more than 20 Democrat house members that will join with The Senate to vote for the immigration bill. As always, we’ll see.

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      • Asaraniti…

        A.) Trump walked into a Box and got schooled by Pelosi.

        B.) I fail to see the “Emergency” given that he had 2 years with a GOP Majority in Congress to find funding for his Wall. Didn’t happen.

        C.) Most real Conservatives don’t like seeing Presidents use Executive Power such as announcing a “National Emergency”. It’s a sign of abuse of the office. Just ask how many Conservatives were happy to see all of Obama’s Executive Orders get signed.

        D.) Conservatives like Sean Hannity and Ann Coulter wont be happy with this.

        E.) Dems are for increasing money towards “Border Security”. Not a Wall.

        F.) I don’t see Trump having any leverage whatsoever.

        G.) A total disruption of people’s lives and our economy for no reason.

        H.) Trump is basically agreeing with the spending bill put forth by Dems and Republicans from Dec. 22nd. This is a tragic fact.

        I.) He’s such a narcissist, I wouldn’t put it past him that he “caved” in so that he could go ahead with his SOTUS. His poll numbers haven’t been good and he knows it. 🙂

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        • Sean Hannity just said that Democrat Senators and Congressmen went around Schumer and Pelosi and approached Trump this week. Open the Gov. and they will put a immigration bill together. Remember gang of 20. We’ll see.

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          • Sounds like pure “spin” to me and Hannity trying to save face for his boy Trump.

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          • That was my initial thought. But I did see the 3 Democrat Senators state they don’t mind voting for additional wall funding as part of a immigration bill….gave it this long, what’s another 3 weeks. BTW, if this works out, I love the idea of going around Schumer and Pelosi. Trust but verify?

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          • There are a number of Republicans (8) that arent even in support of funding for a Wall.

            Amash (MI), Buck (CO), Curbelo FL),, Hurd (TX), Paulsen (MN), Ros-Lehtinen (FL), Upton (MI), and Valadao (CA),

            PS. Going around the back of party leadership (when you are the Majority Party) is probably not a good idea. It’s a career ender. 🙂

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  6. Temporary end to shutdown announcement later today. Trump blinked. What? the market coincidentally moved up on news? Nah. But the TELL will be Monday. We have not yet even broke the recent high around 2672. I will most likely make my decisions on PUTS Monday.

    If we have a flat day Monday I am all in. Oh yeah, about the economy housing was down over 10% in 2018. That is as dramatic a move as you are likely to see. This type of drop had in the past over an 80% accuracy in determining a Recession next year.

    Tariffs will accelerate with EU, Korea, and any major auto importer. Decision has to be in FEBRUARY. Chaos? Nothing compared to what will transpire very soon. the shutdown is temporary and will be put right back on again in weeks.

    High on 18th has to be exceeded either today or Monday at the latest. How we close today and Monday will determine just how bad the next slide will be.

    I get deleted by TONY because of my repetitive stand on news driving markets but interestingly not from the other people that cnstantly get it wrong and have extreme bias. Bias in direction is just foolish. me, I get excited both ways when i see a strong move coming and baby this one is going to spook even to da moon Phil. How many times did i warn of a breakout in 2016? How many in September of this year? I would say this one is beating all the others by a wide margin. Full Proof in my mind. Not just a drop but a steep one. the market is ignoring the obvious as the masses go into the optimistic hope and dream stage.

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  7. phil1247 says:

    2675 es next target
    i will be looking for the exit on a spike to 2681

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  8. observation…not sure if many of you picked up one of “Tony’s words of wisdom post”…I did. While I am not putting words in Tony’s mouth, I think he was suggesting this possible EW count and need to see today’s action to confirm. Notes on chart….

    If the shoe fits, wear, if not, throw it away….I am going with this count until proven otherwise.

    https://gyazo.com/362e9fd3013cd3f22f8874f2ba1398ff

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  9. xEVAx says:

    DOW bull count, if correct we are going up here…. PPT wants to break it off in the comucrats …. Personally I love a good gov shutdown =)

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  10. Hi
    if count for BVSP is in line with BR20,is possible that the first wave may have been a LD
    this also can be seen in EWZ
    chart is in arithmetic scale

    https://invst.ly/9vuhf

    DJi 240′
    https://invst.ly/9vumz

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