Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: rally continues, DOW +92

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets have gained 2.9%, and the European markets have gained 1.2%. The SPX started the week at 2532 and hit 2595 today for a 2.5% gain so far this week. When reviewing the charts of the SPX, DOW, NAZ and NDX we do not see them as choppy as we would have expected for a B wave rally. The SPX, DOW, and NDX look like three waves up, and the NAZ is one wave up thus far. Could be corrective, could be impulsive, too early to tell. With that in mind we did a bit of research.

Whenever the Presidents Working Group (PWG) gets involved in the markets through their Primary Dealers. The market generally rallies 10% to 13% before turning over and heading back down again. One time, 1990, it never did fully return to the recent lows. Was that the outlier? Or is that a possibility this time around too? The three levels to watch going forward actually fit with three OEW pivots. These are highlighted in green on the daily chart. SPX 2575, 2632 and 2656. The first is a 10% rally, which has already been achieved. The second a 12% rally, and the third a 13% rally. We would not expect a PWG B wave to exceed that third level. We are also watching market breadth, and have some parameters there too. Interesting juncture.

Short term support is at the 2575 and 2525 pivots, with resistance at the 2594 and 2632 pivots. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!

After observing TESLA  for a few years we have determined it trades more like a commodity stock (abc’s) than a growth stock, and have dropped it from our charts. In its place we have added a few things. Fed-Ex (pg. 13), Intelsat (pg. 14), and GBTC (pg. 13) the pink sheet Bitcoin ETF. Under commodities on page 8 we have added to Gold and Crude, the CME Bitcoin index and Soybeans. Biotech remains on that page. The Housing index has been moved to page 15 with the housing stats. New Year improvement? Possible.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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551 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. LABD getting pummeled this week.
    From $42 last Friday to $27 today. Glad I havent shorted the Lab stocks!

  2. close over 2600 today gap and go tomorrow.

    Good luck

  3. trejder74 says:

    Is it tomorrow big down is coming?
    3% ?

  4. 61.8% retrace at 2637 needs to become support by EOW, else, it might not go there at all. Seems most of the institutional money from New Year has been placed. Earnings should meet, maybe a few will beat, but will be less than last year. Just speculation, like everyone else.

    This guy interviewing Powell needs to hook to take him offstage. Geez…

  5. fionamargaret says:

    UGAZ had a TT breakout today…..up to 52..(maybe too much Xmas Pudding)

    • Simon Rootbeer says:

      Fiona are you still seeing 1800s for the s&p ?

      • fionamargaret says:

        The permutation number is 2750, where it was 1850 previously, but SPY is down to 193
        Conflicting signals (probably volatility messing with the permutation number).
        Scroll down to my thoughts of last night….
        If we get 1815 we have a nice triple bottom…..(and the Battle of Waterloo, where the Duke of Wellington defeated Napoleon)….x

        • Fiona with all due respect for your music selection, what value do you see in the permutation numbers? Thanks

          • fionamargaret says:

            PI, I do not know if you are asking the correlation between the permutations and the music selection or separating the two….so please bear with me.
            Anyways, music and math are intricately intertwined…rhythm, intervals, time signatures, patterns.
            Einstein claimed he saw most of his scientific and mathematical ideas as a musician (piano and violin) before becoming the recognized physicist he became.
            Looking abstractly at the twelfth root of two, equaling about 1.059, the common number in music theory you find it represents the frequency ratio of an octave.
            The number was a great mathematical discovery and without it some of the most important musical advancements would not have been made possible…the harmonic series.

            The permutation numbers are the patterns formed over the previous years by the market up until the day I post them, using EOD pricing.

            Recently I have found it seems almost like an invisible hand is entering the market, as there is a discordant non-related influence in the pattern, and if you do waves, I am sure you have noticed the difficulty in finding cohesion and numbering.

            Under normal circumstances the permutation number tells you preemptively where the market is going for the next six months/year.

            • xEVAx says:

              Beautiful =) I’ve always felt that music and numbers went together but I could never explain it as eloquently as this =) If you look at my charts I try to use Fibs in price and time and waves to me resemble sound waves, Kinda and they both are influenced by social moods and cycles…. Frequency after all is measured in cycles .)

            • Thanks, you sure have a penchant for poetic writing…ok so permutation gives you a direction and potential targets. How do you know when the direction of the move has changed e.g. 1815 to 2750? Huge difference if you bet one way or another.

    • fionamargaret says:

      VXX is at the base of its sequence, with 60 at the top (though if we go to 1815 today, it will be much higher…..marvels of momentum…

  6. Dex T says:

    Jeff Bezos and his wife Mackenzie didn’t sign a prenuptial agreement

    The Amazon founder did not sign a prenuptial agreement with his wife, Mackenzie Bezos, before their 1993 marriage, TMZ reported, citing sources.

    “Unless the Bezos had a prenuptual or postnuptial agreement, which controlled their property division, Washington’s community property law will be in effect,” family law lawyer Boaz Weintraub, who works in Seattle, told the Daily News this week. “And I understand that Amazon was started after the couple got married, so it will be presumed to be community property, entitling his wife to at least a 50 percent interest under Washington community property law.”

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-news-jeff-bezos-prenuptial-agreement-20190110-story.html

    • Dex T says:

      Bezos is going to lose 50% of his wealth and control of AMZN over this divorce.

      • Not true at all.
        He isnt gonna lose 50% of his control of AMZN.
        Where do you get this stuff from?

        A.) He’s already on another “horse” (Lauren Sanchez)
        B.) He can buy his ex-wife MacKenzie out.
        C.) Or, she keeps stock and he keeps voting rights.
        D.) He’ll still be worth over $65 Billion after the divorce.

        • Dex T says:

          That’s up to the lawyers to determine NOT YOU! I simply am taking it from the article and some others I have read. What experience or knowledge do you have in divorce law???

          All of your points are PURE speculation. You don’t know him OR his wife and what they plan on doing so your opinions are irrelevant!

          • You mean like how …. “this could lead to the CEO being removed and even tanking the Company” ???

            Youre funny.
            Look in the mirror bro.

            • Dex T says:

              Absolutely. AMZN has been in a bear market since Sept. and this could be one of the reasons why. It’s all coming out to the general public so we have to follow the course of events.

              He will definitely be losing a substantial amount of his wealth and influence and that isn’t in dispute.

              I was speculating on the future which you criticized and then came back with your own.

              • riderbobo says:

                Who was the genius analyst/fund manager hat predicted a few days ago that AMZN would double in the next 3 years.

                I commented from what level?

              • Dex T says:

                I don’t know. If it was Blueh who made that prediction then I definitely didn’t read the post

        • lunker1 says:

          Blue, that’s 9 posts in about two hours. 2 of them were about stocks.

          • riderbobo says:

            You will have to excuse Blue. I have dealt with him for about 10 years now over at Danerics.

            He drove most of the posters away over the years.

            The reason he gravitated to here when I asked him for years why he didn’t come here is because most of the rest of him blocked him on Discus and all his comments appear as “This user is blocked.”

            He is an expert on everything, just ask him.

          • Lurker, I respectfully disagree.

            I believe that I have posted 9 posts about the FED, CPI, Monetary Policy, Economics, Demographics that power stocks like EXAS and healthcare economics… with about 5 or 6 posts on Jeff Bezos and his control of Amazon.

            Unlike some of the 2,000 word “essays” that I saw earlier this morning and yesterday about whether we will fall into a Recession, I believe that my posts have been brief and to the point, and operating from a fairly good knowledge base.

            I’m not sure why I’m being singled out for talking about the Corporate Control of AMZN, when there is another poster here that has been posting for most of the day about it.

        • B.) He can buy his ex-wife MacKenzie out.
          C.) Or, she keeps stock and he keeps voting rights.

          B) Does Jeff Bezos have $65Bill in his checking account?
          C.) if the ex-wife gets 50% of the “Bezos” stock, it will be registered to her, and she has the voting rights.

          • Dex T says:

            B) No he definitely doesn’t. Nearly his entire wealth is tied up in AMZN stock.

            C) Exactly- and his wife is not a businesswoman and is likely to cash out a portion of her stock to pursue her own interests

            There are a number of possibilities what may happen but nobody knows for certain so blueh.. can stop with the condescending know-it-all attitude because he is just guessing along with everyone else.

          • I guess you’ve never heard of a Bank giving a top Executive a loan based on his equity in his Company, complete with collars?

            Nor have you ever heard of share classes getting restructured?

            Do you really think that Bezos and his wife MacKenzie haven’t sat down with a team of lawyers and already figured this stuff out?

            C’mon.

            • Blue, you’re really funny.
              AMZN has a PE of 92. What bank is going to loan him $50Billion with that as collateral?

              Do you really think that Bezos and his wife MacKenzie haven’t sat down …already figured this stuff out?
              Obviously Not. That’s why they are getting divorced.

              • Its amazing that there are people here that think that one of the smartest guys on the planet (Bezos) hasnt already figured out how this is gonna proceed.

                Au Contraire.

                The announcement of a divorce most likely confirms that he knows that he will continue to remain CEO of Amazon and continue to do so with a ton of voting shares.

                If he felt that he was at “risk”….. why even get divorced?

                The market doesnt seem to see any “risk”.
                Especially given that shares are at the same place they were back in Mid-October.

                lol

        • riderbobo says:

          The share capital will have to be restructured. The Board may oust him.

          Get the popcorn ready.

    • Dex T says:

      Jeff Bezos has been seeing estranged wife of Hollywood mogul

      “Bezos has been dating Lauren Sanchez, a former TV anchor for Fox’s “Good Day LA” and the wife of Hollywood talent mogul Patrick Whitesell, sources tell The Post.”

      https://pagesix.com/2019/01/09/jeff-bezos-has-been-seeing-former-tv-anchor-lauren-sanchez/?_ga=2.264951110.813123663.1546924975-1701301180.1534050964

      • Dex T says:

        So there is even more to the story, Bezos has been carrying on an affair with a married woman. This could lead to his being removed as CEO and even tanking the company!!

        “A source close to Bezos said, “Jeff and McKenzie tried very hard to work things out. They separated last year, then Jeff and Lauren started dating. McKenzie knew they were dating; the news today was not a surprise to her. Lauren was with Jeff at the Golden Globes because they are dating.”

        • “This could lead to his being removed as CEO and even tanking the company!!”

          Oh please.
          Youre so misinformed it isnt even funny.

          First off, Lauren Sanchez is ALSO getting DIVORCED.

          In FACT, she and her estranged husband were with Bezos at the Golden Globes the other night. Everyone in the room is an Adult.

          Second of all, the Chairman of the Board of Amazon is …. wait for it…. wait for it….

          Jeff Bezos!

          • Dex T says:

            She is still married so she’s considered a married woman until the divorce papers are signed!

            Stop Pretending to be so knowledgeable. You don’t KNOW anything about these people and their situation or have any contact with them so you are simply giving your own interpretations.

            I am taking my opinions from people who have real experience and credentials in these matters and have zero interest in your opinions.

            • Of course youre formulating your opinions from “other” people…. who allegedly have real experience and credentials…. so much so that they actually believe that Bezos can be removed as CEO because he and his wife have mutually agreed to move on.

              That’s absurd.

              Funny how no one here seems to even “care” about your posts about Bezos…. besides me. Apparently the “have zero interest in your opinions”.

              Have any idea why that is?

              • Dex T says:

                They definitely have more experience than YOU so their opinions are more valid.

                Don’t know or care about other peoples posting interests. I post what I want and anyone can respond if they like.

    • lunker1 says:

      This has absolutely nothing to do with Tony’s blog. Please stop posting junk

      • ttsden says:

        Agreemento buzz of you lawyer types . in some communities they are called by their true
        professional classification : Liars , man, nota bene liars ! We are not surprised are you?

  7. lml25 says:

    Besides DJT not falling apart (yet),slow stochastics on SPX are now above 80 for the first day of the three needed to embed bullishly.Two scenarios (as always):A quick reversal and severe drop (50 SPX points) or SPX continues to climb,embed and keep rising until it doesn’t.Trannies taking a dive will be the first indicator,quickly followed by stochastics.The more time goes by that equities don’t roll over today,the more it looks like the second scenario.GL all.

  8. An interesting post yesterday by Ed Yardeni on his blog about fertility rates and demographics… leading to slower growth and subdued inflation, if not outright deflation. Another reason why I own EXAS as a core investment as well as several other diagnostic stocks. And another reason why our economy will no longer be able to register strong GDP growth.

    The single largest age group in the U.S. is 53
    And every year, 3.5 million more people turn age 65 in the U.S.

    http://blog.yardeni.com/

    The Demographic trends are very powerful.

    • xEVAx says:

      “Healthcare” is a disaster though, Ocare is unconstitutional and the communists want full state run control…. The other side has zero answers either and the people cant afford it either way….. Part of the deflation we need is complete collapse of the health scam and enforcing existing anti trust laws…..

      • I’m not here to “politicize” healthcare or the medical diagnostics sector. I’n here to make money…. by simply pointing out a very power DEMOGRAPHIC trend that continues to increase the total addressable market for a Company like EXAS and the #2 Cancer killer of people over the age of 50.

        Perhaps I’m on the wrong blog.
        Everyone here seems to have everything “figured” out and must already be Millionaires. 😀

        • xEVAx says:

          Have been for a long time =) Im not politicizing anything, just pointing out that the parasite has about drained the host, all the tech in the world can’t help anyone under the current system if nobody can afford it…. The “system” as designed is illegal and a majorly felonious SCAM no matter how you look at it…..

          • Ever heard of Medicare?
            Apparently not.

            • xEVAx says:

              Ever heard of MATH??? 1.3 T we are borrowing to keep the plates spinning with no end in sight, real inflation is more like 7%….. The USSA economy is at least 20% parasitic red tape nightmare and thats just the mediscam, the rest is “insurance” “education” “banking” ectr…. A big house of paper cards….. Oh and the “defense” dept and can’t forget “Space Force” whatever that is…..

        • ttsden says:

          Many Thanks Bluehorseshow . Yu done it too. A light bulb just popped my brain cells.
          10 x times – 1o baggers awaiting on us . Yu rock !

    • Bluehorseshoe, Demographics, on the younger side, is why I’m watching India like a hawk. Think India might give China a run for the money.

  9. quickrick38 says:

    I agree with those who think we’re going to the 2640 area. However, for right now we are in a minor pullback having completed the ‘a’ and ‘b’ with ‘c’ down still coming. Could be wrong but that’s what I’m seeing right now.

  10. xEVAx says:

    Still going with this….

  11. lml25 says:

    Watching DJT today…dropped to 9400,well below 9450 and back into the bear flag,but it didn’t act bearishly.Instead the trannies bounced 112 points.Waiting for the real move here to extrapolate a correlation to the S&P.

  12. buy at will, tomorrow is free money friday 2620 . Makes sense. need to finish the up wave and squeeze the bears when everyone thought we would go down. Then bad retail bad airlines no govt deal no tarrif deal. Jack it up.
    Good luck all

  13. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Gary – please cut out the political commentary. Everyone knows you despise Trump. For myself I find no value whatsoever in your opinions about him. You will never ever realize how your thinking is clouded by your hate and even if I had the desire to get into a debate with you on this, this is not the platform to do it on aside from the fact that you obviously have an inability to be objective with someone else who has a different opinion than yours politically. Your party believes in care taking. My party believes in hard work. We aren’t going to change our minds on this so what’s the point of even trying to reconcile our differences? Contrary to your party’s opinion that everyone should be united and sing Kumbaya, our constituents are perfectly comfortable with seeing things differently. Life is supposed to be difficult, wars have occurred since the beginning of time, differences are inherent in our humanity. We accepted this long ago. So please stop wasting our time and trying to tell us the way it is or how Trump is going to end the world. I am tired of your political posts taking space up here.

    • ariez5 says:

      Nice try at an attempt to cut out political commentary while injecting your own.

      I refuse to waste time refuting your claims about what each party believes even though I think it is a giant pile of verbal horse manure.

    • Johnny, I cant help but say that your claim that you are tired of seeing political posts by Gary taking up space here is somewhat “weakened” by your own political rant. It works both ways my friend. 🙂

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        its not a rant. I merely was giving an example as to why we will never agree so the only objective political commentary can achieve is constant battles that go nowhere influencing no one so in essence my brief examples (far from a rant) are designed to strengthen the point we will only disagree hence why even discuss it. The left likes to care take. Is that a jab? The left would see caretaking as a positive attribute. The right would not so based upon the left’s view of how the powers should govern they shouldn’t see this as a jab right? I never said he was wrong or that I was right. I merely gave opposing viewpoints. The left would probably see earning your way as mean spirited or selfish right? I didn’t say it was unselfish or noble. The only thing I said was I don’t see value in his opinions. If I said earning your way is the only right way of governing then I would be giving an opinion but I did not. Does the left not constantly talk about divisiveness? They constantly accuse trump as being divisive. The right sees it differently. The right sees no point in trying to unite because we will forever be divided because we have different viewpoints.

  14. For those that are unaware, Powell speaks at 12:45 pm from the Economic Club of Washington, DC.

    Dont be surprised if this becomes a sell the news event, even with 5 other Fed speakers scheduled to relay comments at various points during the day.

  15. gary61b says:

    the dollar is having an effect on indicies today. andy dollar value and indicies shoot up, if dollar rises the indicies hold or fall slightly. I have a 95.48 Target on dollar lets see if we have a pullback at that level and rocket launch of the indicies.

  16. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  17. travis01 says:

    Doc, in Corp meetings again today…what ya see on levels? I’m targeting a slight down move and positioned accordingly ST.

  18. phil1247 says:

    CL

    short squeeze moon shot delivered as advertised previously
    now near critical resistance
    prudent to take profits here
    but still bullish above 50.86

    quite cool how yesterdays upward blast
    went right through the triangle lines intersection !

  19. Rock Springs Massacre Sept 1885 USA 🇺🇸 78 Chinese homes were destroyed 28 dead. Just one of Trade wars of past history. Miners not even railroad Technology war. Core issue Chinese could work for less than White Americans. Slow boat to China history where Americans used and stole their hardware stores, business. Trust is not really issue with China. More of payback .. today

  20. Thanks much Tony and I see you have raised your high end pivot to over the existing gap in the $SPX which has strong odds historically of being closed. Lots of bearish comments coming out on this blog, but I remain of the opinion we selloff a little then rally late today or tomorrow…option expiration next week will be interesting….staying flat and like the write up from OLD STATS and others about the $VIX drop below 20, triggering a selloff…didn’t know that! Ciao, Amico.

  21. mgccapital:
    Yes, price movement has primacy over indicator movement. But your analysis which states that the A-D line is always just co-incident with price movement is incorrect, especially if you look at Index price charts against A-D line charts over a period long enough to reveal a trend. Even on a daily basis, there have been occasions when the A-D change has differed from the price change in extent, although it is necessary to develop a definition of what constitutes that difference in magnitude.

    • mcgcapital says:

      I’m not saying it just follows price, but that it’s more likely to when the % change on the indices is larger. If we’re up 1+%, odds of majority of stocks being up >0% is higher than if we’re up 0.2%. This market has moved straight down and straight up with most days being up or down big, so it’s not a surprise the A/D line is following. You’ll get the divergence if things slow down a bit and the daily range at the top narrow. That might not happen though as it can easily just go from big up days to big down again

  22. An incorrigible abuser of the purpose of this site wrote this referring to Red China and the technology trade:
    “Doubt they implement what we demand and will not change our policy till there is evidence of such change. Stop trying to become a tech leader and stay in your place. How likely is that going to go?”
    It strains credulity that someone who claims to be brilliant at technology administration does not know the difference between China stealing technology and innovating it through their own creativity. Believe it or not, wizard, there is a huge difference between the two.

  23. lml25 says:

    Watch the Trannies tomorrow and Friday.A drop back into the bear flag,below 9450,would be ominous.

  24. Hi,thanks Tony
    don’t see any sign of a top yet,histogram is still ascending
    interesting crossover between NL and falling TL with MA55 aproaching
    https://invst.ly/9qruj

  25. Thanks Tony. Happy to see you reduced your Updates to twice weekly. Daily was just too much. Hope you’re feeling well?

  26. fionamargaret says:
    • fionamargaret says:

      Permutations are worked by using all data available to reach a conclusion..all things being equal…
      Well on the one hand the conclusion was 1850, then changed to 2750…what does one do with that.
      If changing to 2750 is the better option, why is DIA still down to 181, SPY down to 193, and yes $WTIC is still unmoved with its determination to go to 34.
      TLT is up to 143, GLD is down to 950, SLV down to 11.
      So much for the bright fluorescent numbers….

      Qui court deux lièvres a la fois, n’en prend aucun…..x

      • xEVAx says:

        Tonys count says, “int a” at the low tentatively, B wave is under way with the little a done, b down c up….. Nothing looks better from here, maybe we see 2731 but I see Tony and more importantly the market seems to love 2656…. Looks like we’re going in 3’s so far all the way back to last years Jan blow off where the last real impulsive wave ended…. Big down or up needs an impulsive wave set up I think….. Maybe still alive here, note that SPX/DOW/NYA are on a slightly different count than COMPQ/NDX…. Wave 3 ended sooner on the the dow ect. but they bottomed in 09 with NDX ahead of the rest…. At the end of the correction they will be aligned…. NOBODY here seems to have a count that works but Tony but I try .)

        • xEVAx says:

          If we keep going higher I’ll rule out the top count on SPX and go with the bottom count, futures are down though with king dollar down and bonds hanging in strong and gold up =)
          Maybe we see (and don’t laugh) the return of the bond and gold vigilantes??? The other alternative is about 2200 ish for wave 2 correcting this bubble and setting up 3-4-5 as in BIG 5 2009 to 2018 was 1 of an extended wave V UP, don’t ask how we get there though LOL

          Lets face it we have GOV gone wild….. That clown show last night was such a joke it could ALL end now though……

      • Fiona:
        Thanks for the interesting RS chart from Chris Kimble. I wonder if mid-cap growth has the same RS pattern vs the SPX as general mid-cap? I will probably create such a chart using the Stockcharts.com tools.

  27. Now things get interesting. The pullback tonight to 2665, broke the 61.8% long. Normally, what should happen next, is a counter trend rally of about 10 points to a 50% micro short. If that level is defended, we should see a lower low later on in the overnight session or by the NYSE open.

    BTW, China released it’s statement on the trade talks and it was a nothing burger. This does not bode well for tomorrow’s trading but I will trade the tape I get, not what I hope for.

  28. Timeline for deep drops and new lows in market? Kind of easy now. Rosenstein leaving but not before Mueller report submitted. People in the know assume in next 2 weeks right before new AG is approved. I find it funny that when i started out using external events to tie into market drops everyone told me Tony’s Charts are the bible and no external noise can affect it. Loved that 60 point and 80 point swing on nothing. Impeachment rumors and reaction to report will be immediate. the report will be bullet proof.

    Would love to see the market crawl out of this bear as impeachment talks and full disclosure of Mueller Report is discussed. More importantly Trump is no Nixon. he has no bounds and will cause 10 times more havoc than Nixon did.

    in conclusion there will be no bottom seen until impeachment gets fully resolved. Any rally from here till that time is a gift to the Bear. Happy hunting. BTW please don’t put much stock in the PPT. Not during wild events like this. Panic will stampeded the PPT as it has with the mortgage debacle. People always look for a divine intervention. Oh yeah, i was told impeachment will NOT AFFECT markets. Anyone still sticking to that? I am excited because i can once again target my PUTS accordingly.

    • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/trump-poised-for-battle-with-his-own-party-on-trade-war-powers

      As I speak Trump asking GOP to give him unlimited power to place tariffs on such things as autos. market immediate dropped from this report. republicans are slow witted in self preservation but will NEVER give him this. Trump wants to attack our allies now. Just when you thought the market was settling for the PPT rally. An imploding Prez. Mueller about to report. Watch the wild and crazy antics. just getting started.Hint: Remember my assessment of the man way back when? This market can’t compete with the worlds most powerful leader off the rails. After 2 years of dictatorial control he is losing it as Pelosi spanks him. Watch him become more bizarre if that’s possible. yet another reason Mueller will present his report very soon.

      I suspect the futures will recover for a glorious opening. Will not last however. Place your PUTS. Bumpy ride.

      • But wait there is more. Getting ugly folks. Seems the GOP let go so many nefarious events that this new congress is going to be so busy trying to undo 2 years of daily criminal activities. This stinks to high heaven. Imagine a Russian oligarch and his businesses sanctioned over direct involvement with election tampering and lifting it right before the GOP lost their power? Munchkin is as clean as the rest of Trumps picks.

        And now that the silly hopes and dreams of trade war easing is gone up in smoke we have trump attempting to add the EU in tariffs on autos. Told ya trump is a man i know well. betting the man and you can’t go wrong.. How many days has the new congress been here? Silly me. I get emotional. Must not because it clouds the analytical side. Too bad I say. Ugly next 2 months for the delusional many that saw this nation rise up with promises of a new dawn and saw that happening for the past 2 years. Look up how popular Hitler was. We are a species easily duped. I guess i over stepped my allotment of trump bashing and will get spanked for it. so be it. I await tomorrows action..

        • purplember says:

          yea Gary we needed Hillary in there because she’s squeaky clean. uranium one, to stupid to have secure server with most important information in the world and let’s not forget the 100’s of millions to clinton foundation

          Gary how come millions aren’t coming into the clinton foundation any more ?

        • kingfrogcash says:

          The market is up 10% since President Trump said to buy the dip. While you have been wallowing in fake news. You sir had been duped. The great chartist’s on this blog just follow the tape. Wake up!

          • CampFreddie says:

            King – Well said Sir.

          • 2016 was the granddaddy of all bears. deep dark place. I, not following the holly chart sad the exact opposite. I use common sense which seems lacking in the USA. I love the analogy to Hillary. GOP does a great job of demonizing. They did it with Pelosi also. As for Hillary the simple fact that one dozen separate Republican investigations into Benghazi was only intended to brainwash you. Look at the fact that the most disgusting irrational corrupt administration ever is being indicted fired and quitting with treasonous behavior from all the top level people ans this president uses hate anger scapegoating and lines his own pocket at the same time. Yes this genius will go down in history questioning his sanity.

            Hillary is a private citizen. the server incident is the same as trumps daughter. Oh yeah his daughter is just an ambassador to the world with no real position yet top security clearance. Flynn had top security clearance and used it the collude with Russia and Turkey. Selling out this country and you divert and blame others. Why Hitler was’t so bad. His problem was that the German people had been subjugated and lost many wars. he was only trying to boost their moral.

            Try talking to the people writing the history books. Shame and embarrassment will be left after reading it. But hey, i said the same damn thing 2 years ago and was told I was biased. I guess i still am.

  29. fxaprendiz says:

    I just posted my first update on the “Business Cycle and Recession Watch” that I’m planning to post twice a month or so in here. It went into moderation limbo, probably because I posted too many charts, 6 of them. I’ll try next time to either post less of them or make the report into a 2 articles series.
    Tony or anyone else, at how many charts/links the “awaiting moderation” gets triggered? Thanks in advance for any reply =)

  30. gtoptions says:

    The weekly swing from the SPX/2347 low completed at today’s high. Roll over now, or not?
    The market is providing some great setups. Good Luck.
    SPX ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/APXgNKtt/

  31. fxaprendiz says:

    Business Cycle and Recession Watch Update 1

    I mentioned in my previous post the conditions that need to be met before a stocks market peak can happen and a recession follows. This will be the first post detailing where we are regarding those conditions. It will be a long road map, as it will take years for all 3 requirements to be present, so this is a long term exercise in projecting the end of this bull and the start of the next recession.

    1. VIX. No signal at present.

    The weekly SMA(20) has been climbing steadily for some months already, and it’s very close now to go over 20. Presently is at 19.19, so if volatility can remain elevated for a few more weeks it will go over 20 which will be the first warning sign of trouble ahead for stocks. Uber-bears don’t get giddy yet though; this average can and do stay elevated years before a recession ensues. It’s only the first of several signals that need to be present.

    2. Yield Curve. No signal at present.

    The yield spread has been flattening for some years and it’s now at 0.17

    While that chart looks scary, let’s consider this longer term chart:

    After the yield curve finally inverts, it has taken between 1 and 3 years or more for the last 5 recessions to happen, and with the exception of the 1980 and 1981 recessions, the curve is already positive by the time the recession is underway. So no recession in the horizon anytime soon.

    3. Economic Cycle. No signal at present.

    Economics Professor David Rice at econpi.com has done a great job at creating an average that integrates 19 economic indicators to gauge the health of the economy and the stages of the business cycle.

    This average is called the MoC or Mean of Coordinates, and it needs to be near or below the 0 baseline for it to signal a recession is imminent. It is currently at 34.4% which is very high, and it was at 35.5% in mid October, that was its highest value for the current cycle. Now, if you say “that’s the signal, the stocks peaked on October as well”, let me tell you that the business cycle needs to peak BEFORE the actual peak in the stocks market. So no cigar here either. The MoC has peaked between 1 and 2 years in advance before the stocks peak in previous recessions.
    In conclusion, there’s no foreseeable recession coming for this year, as all of the 3 indicators need to be in place at least 1 year before the stocks market peaks and a recession comes after.
    If you want to have a hint of how close the business cycle is to a recession, then keep an eye in the next chart, which puts in a visual way the state of the economy.

    Out of the 19 economic indicators that make up the MoC, 9 are already in the Decline Quadrant, and 10 still in the Expansion Quadrant, with the MoC itself lightly in the Decline Quad already. But it’s current value is very high as mentioned already, 34.4%. It would need at least a year to come down anywhere near recessionary levels. And it’s almost a certainty this is not the peak of the economic cycle yet, as there are several mini cycles within it, as you can see in the next chart.

    Notice how the MoC is moving upwards since the last recession in spiral movements, with the mini contractions in the economy being reflected when the MoC shifts to the left and sometimes it stays in the Decline Quadrant for some months, but then the bigger economic cycles resumes and takes the Moc to the right and into the Expansion Quadrant again.
    And for the ones of you that may be thinking “but how can we sure the final peak is not already in and we aren’t declining since then towards recessionary levels”, let me remind you that the business cycle always peaks way before the stock cycle do, so a simultaneous peak in September-October doesn’t cut it.

    I’m going to eventually post how the paths to the 2007-2009 and 2001 recessions went, so we can all see what to expect from these 3 indicators in the future. This post is already too long, sorry about that, but since it’s the first update about it I think I needed to explain some things in more detail this time.

    All of this matches well with my own count (that we are in a wave 4 from the 2009 low) and my expectations for a market peak until the year 2022 and a recession on that year or the next one. If you want to, add it as item number 4 in the list =)

    4. EW count. No signal at present. (Corrective wave 4 of Intermediate or Primary degree from the year 2009)

    Credits to next websites for the charts and tables:
    1. Marketwatch.com
    2. St. Luis Federal Reserve (fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)
    3. econpi.com

    • mcgcapital says:

      As you know, I’m a massive bear on these markets at the moment but this was an interesting read. I’ll provide a few ‘this time its different’ counter points:

      1. In prior economic cycles, regional/national economies were much less integrated. It wouldn’t have been unusual for the US economy to do one thing while parts of the rest of the world does another. But over the last 20 years, globalisation has made sure that all economies are intrinsically linked. Any instability in the system anywhere in the world can have a knock on effect much more easily than it used to.

      2. China is the systemic risk. They’ve taken on too much debt to fund their exponential growth over the last 10-20 years. After said growth, their economy is now 2/3rds the size of the US. The saying used to be that if America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. That can just as easily apply to China now. All of the signs are that the data out of China is worsening. And that’s just the data you can trust. Some of their government data may well be bogus as well, so things could be even worse than reported. We won’t know until its too late and something bad happens.

      3. On volatility, I think ‘this time is different’ because you’ve had volatility suppression via central bank interference in markets via QE. And now they’re stepping away. Despite the recent jawboning around being patient on rate hikes, QT is still in play and there’s no real change in Fed strategy – they always have been data dependent when hiking, but its the balance sheet thats driving liquidity and stocks. If QE suppressed volatility, QT is going to amplify it. And that appears to be what’s happening as its been so much more volatile since QT started.

      I’d also say that any signal from the yield curve might not look the same as prior cycles because of central banks. Longer dated yields have been suppressed. I’m not sure it can be relied upon that it will give you an inversion pre recession this time. We got close a few times but it didn’t trigger.

      As for the economic cycle, this would look way different on a global basis instead of the US. It looks like production based economies are already heading into recession, Germany and China being prime examples and extremely important economies for global GDP. Consumption led ones are likely to follow. The ECRI leading indicators for the US are now sharply negative. I think the US economy slows quicker than realised by most people. With the US, some of the data may also have a positive spin on it because of the fiscal stimulus they did very late in the cycle. That drops out of the YoY data now as it was 12 months ago. Without Trump’s tax cuts the economy may have slowed already. Have to see how this progresses.

      As always, price is key to all of this and we need to let it decide who’s right. Since we broke down in December, everything to me looks consistent with my macro outlook. If we build a base somewhere and the Chinese manage to re-inflate their economy, then maybe I’m wrong. But for me, if this was an ongoing bull we shouldn’t have broken down the 2018 trading range in December i.e. hold 2550-2600. So bears in control until proven otherwise

      • fxaprendiz says:

        Always a pleasure to read you mcg, even when you disagree with me.

        There’s no doubt this is a bears’ market and will be for the first half of this year. Also there’s no doubt in my mind that we will see a lower low. The only thing up for debate is the eventual final severity of the decline and whether it can trigger a recession or not.

        As mentioned I’m now open to the possibility of this correction being of one degree higher than initially thought. But if that’s the case, there are several examples of corrections of Primary degree that didn’t trigger a recession, the more extreme being 1987 with a 33% decline, so not all declines over 20% necessarily trigger a recession. I guess for most participants in this blog, with their tendency to exaggerate and extrapolate, a decline of 30-40% will feel like the end of the world so whether it causes a recession or not it won’t matter to them.

        But I’m digressing. Back to your points. All are valid counter-arguments and as you said, price will determine the final outcome. I agree the economy and markets are distorted since the rescue on 2009 so some usual metrics may not work as well now or not work at all to determine the proximity of a recession. But that’s precisely why I gathered 3 different indicators to help weed out false positives. one or two of them may fail but all 3 failing at once I find it hard to happen, especially the MoC which is actually an average of 19 indicators, so in a way is a super-indicator.

        It is true that the world is more tightly integrated economically now, but there are still different velocities in the rate of change within each economy. This may be the case of most of the rest of the countries deeper into their bear declines already, suffering recessions this year while the US avoids one this time, and then coming 2022-23 the US finally goes into recession and the other countries go into a second recession. There may also be the case that China is already in recession (as you said many of their stats can’t be trusted) and will come to start its recovery about the time the US markets bottom around mid year. Thus China wouldn’t drag the rest of the world with it if it recovers quick enough. Finally, as bad as it may sound as being politically incorrect, it may be that the US is the “lesser of the evils” when recessions erupt in Europe and elsewhere in Asia and LatinAmerica, so money end ups still flowing to the US that may keep its stock markets and economy afloat or not to decline as badly as the rest. Basically that already happened in the run-up to this situation, as you pointed out so many times, the markets in Europe initiated their declines much earlier and went down deeper leaving the US almost as the lone wolf, making higher highs. You may say the US will finally catch up with the rest at the bottom but it may just be the case it never goes into recession this year as the indicators still point to an economy decelerating but still growing.

        Before I forget, the ECRI Leading Indicators that you mention have given false positives in the past, twice at least. They went down in 2011 and 2012 to the same level they were in the 2001 recession, but no recession was triggered. This may easily be another case of a false positive by this Index.

        I know this is all just talk and given enough free time and disposition, anyone can find online the information that suits their thinking and put together a case for bulls or bears. Maybe I have a bias because my particular EW count calls for no recession until after 2022. I would like to say that I know economics in depth and I know what I’m talking about but that’s not the case. But I think it’s worth to tell the readers in this blog that maybe, just maybe, things are not really as bad as they may seem on the surface, and that even a 30-40% decline doesn’t necessarily mean an automatic recession, if the conditions don’t warrant it.

        I guess ultimately what I’m trying to do with this exercise is to put things in perspective and calm the waters, and give an alternative to the usual “new all-time-highs next month” and “all doom and gloom from now on” that many people in here are so fond of. It almost seems like there’s no room for middle-ground, which is funny to me because the middle-ground is mostly what usually happens, when all is said and done.

        As said at the start, always a pleasure to read you and talk to you mcg. I wish all the bloggers disagreeing with me were this polite and well-thought and knowledgeable. Then I wouldn’t mind debating hours on end.

      • Jan Hatzius of Goldman says that the market is pricing in a 50% chance of a Recession.

        Hatzius’ says his model (which is a statistical model introduced by Fed researchers that translates the slope of the yield curve and credit spreads – – – into a market-implied recession probability is at only 15%

  32. Jack kendo says:

    Tony Thanks
    Nice update on PWG
    $spx up 10% in 10 days.
    During 2008 bear market, PWG intervened, FED had emergency rate cut of 3 basis, $spx also bounced up 10% in 10 days, then rolled over to make new low.
    What a perfect match!
    Can we say PWG mission completed for +10% in 10 days as the guide line?
    Look at today, the last 5 minutes straight up, that probably was PWG’s final work to make the close above 10% for 10 days.

    Follow up on my extreme $NYMO reading from yesterday.
    Here are three extreme $NYMO readings in a bear market rally.
    1). July 2011, was 89.65, then $spx plunged 19% from there.
    2). Nov 2008, was 99.46, then $spx plunged 26% from there.
    3). Jan 2009, was 121.86, then $spx plunged 29% from there.
    Today’s $NYMO at 117.76, second highest is history. Nasdaq $NAMO made new ATH.

    No change on my Primary count with (ii) of 3 at today’s 2595.32
    $NDX made it to 61% retrace of Dec 3’s wave 2, that should be enough for the wave (ii) of 3.
    Next should be the crash wave of (iii) of 3, it matched the crash pattern I am following.

    I am aware of yesterday AAH’s mention of potential degrees violation with more points here.

    From yesterday my posted chart, Wave 2 at 2800 was a failed flat at 61.8%, took 24 days.
    Here wave (ii) of 3 took a much less time of 10 days with zigzag, and less than wave 2’s 61.8% retrace. Both time and retrace percentage are less than the larger degree’s wave 2.
    As time proceed, we can not just compare how many points retraced for degree comparison.
    For example, current bear market points of up and down are much much larger than 2008’s bear market, so using percentage as guidance is more proper.

    Alternate count of 1-2-3-4 invalidated, $NDX overlapped 10/29’s low, even though $spx does not.

    cheers!

    • Jack kendo says:

      We had WROC and Zweig thrust at the final week of Nov, then market rolled over for its strongest plunge in December since 1931 great depression.

      so, imho, Zweig thrust or WROC in a bear market is the climax of bounced top, and that should be sold into.

      cheers!

      • mcgcapital says:

        Agree… think about it this way. In a steady bull market with lower volatility, a huge ramp upwards triggering these signals signifies that there has been a shift in fundamentals which has led to investors chasing momentum (e.g. Trump election). Presumably a positive shift, and a positive fundamental backdrop is what drives higher stock prices. Thats why these signals work, not for the sake of the signal but because of what its signifying (improved fundamentals).

        In a high volatility market such as this where price is doing extreme things, massive sell off in December (despite markets being unable to crash in December) followed by a massive counter rally, these shifts in momentum are par for the course. They aren’t being driven by a change in fundamentals but instead by technical factors such as an oversold bounce. No change in fundamentals = no change in long term trajectory of stock prices, so the signals are completely irrelavant, and as you say, they like trigger after large rallies which are the perfect place to re-short.

        People need to use their brains before blindly following statistics. Common sense is important, always question any statistics you’re presented with

    • aahmichael says:

      I agree that it must be measured in percentages. The market rallied 7.5% in your wave 2 from 2604 to 2800. It rallied 10.6% in your wave (ii) from 2347 to 2595. Those are the percentages that matter.

      • Jack kendo says:

        aah, the way I see is not absolute points or absolute percentage, it’s relative term, the retrace percentage, meaning 50% or 61.8% or ..% retrace of current degree.
        From my study, in history, there are some examples of smaller degree wave (ii) bounce up with larger points and percentage gain than the larger degree wave 2. Then it proceeded with 3 of 3 crashes.

        Most important, as I said: it matches the crash pattern I am following.

        cheers!

        • aahmichael says:

          A market doesn’t have to be in a wave 3 in order to crash. There is no difference between a wave C crash and a wave 3 crash, other than what it does after that wave is completed.

    • xEVAx says:

      Leading diagonal in wave one??? Thats the only one that kinda works for me but none really work until we take out the low and close below it….. Futures are in the red, thinking 100 point gap down…. Take out the low and then some with 3, then 4 back into hope range and then 5 of 1 down, clean impulse with extension to 1800, for P1…. This is the super bear count =)

  33. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony, do you have a date or a link about the PWG meeting in 1990? I cannot find anything on it. this is all I got. thank you

    https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/js1002.aspx

    • tony caldaro says:

      They are generally secretive when they meet
      Mnunchin was nice to let us know in advance

    • lunker1 says:

      Tony,
      Also the Dow in 1990 went from a high of about 3025 down to 2350 approx -22% in 3 months.

      It then took 2 months to go from 2350 to 2650 (13%) in perhaps a Leading Diagonal, but however it then quickly retraced down to 2450 in a month (somewhat revisiting the lows). Respectfully I would disagree with the “it kept going higher” description

      Then in mid January 1991 the market had a large gap up perhaps from a positive outcome from the war and the price was quickly back into the 2600s

  34. Futures were down,had an implied open of -9. its now 7 pm, time for ppt to go to work and push everything green.msomwe can head higher tomorrow

  35. aahmichael says:

    Today the market failed to make it back to 2600, and I think that’s a big deal. 2600 was the scene of the last massacre, on 12/17, before the market fell into a black hole down to 2347. I doubled my short position today, and I’m maxed out on short side now. I was hoping to double up at 2598, but the market didn’t cooperate, so I had to do it a little lower. It’s a zig-zag up from 2347, and (c) is still shorter than (a), but even if the market is able to make it up to (or through) 2600 overnight or tomorrow, I did not want to take the chance of being flat here.

    • Just checked, futures down 15 points, great call.

    • Aahm: I have always counted the first decline leg from 2940 to 2604 as a zigzag, and could not find a legit way to count it otherwise; similarly, the second leg from 2800 to 2346 is better counted as a zigzag too, with good symmetry & ratio. IMO, the correction of W[4], a DZZ, is over, and now a new bull market started from the 12/24 low.

      Like I noted to you a couple of days ago, the first series of the current rally to 2520 is an almost perfect LD. Yes, the entire rally from 2346 is a zigzag as of now, but all my indicators point to that 2595 is a w(3) high, with w(5) to come early next week at around 2626. I hold short position now, but will change to long position once this w(4) is over. GL.

  36. Just curious.

    Does anyone here trade individual stocks at all?
    If so, which ones and how actively?

    • In this current climate I play the earnings game and short notorious pus & blister stocks at earnings. TSLA AAPL GPRO NFLX. Still have yet to nail Tesla….

    • Bluehorseshow, I trade individual stocks, esp. puts to the downside. NTAP is a great short. Selling my longs pretty fast here because think market might back off, and some go with index moves and others against it.

      • What are you using as your T/A on NTAP?
        EW?

        • Bluehorseshow, I don’t use EW, I use patterns, and do use retrace levels. NTAP targets are down to 42. I hold 50’s and 45’s for & June wanted to load up more today. NTAP on daily is a downward sloping H&S that started numerous months ago. My puts have hit twice already, and I’m working it a 3rd time. Look at openinsider.com and see where CEO sold 83% of his stock in Nov. Not a bit of buying in it, ALL are selling. Ripe set-up for downward continuation. I really like buying puts a lot more with heavy insider selling in a stock. You can actually scan for this on Finviz.

    • Valerie wapiti says:

      SQ, TSLA, NVDA, FB
      Most active in SQ, NVDA
      Tsla trades in a wide but reliable range (reliable so far) and is an ocassional day trade.
      SQ is a swing trade.
      NVDA and FB day trades.

  37. xEVAx says:

    Not much confidence in anything right now, SO for Da Bears there is this…. Need to get moving straight down and then Id need to see extension and impulsive down and down and down…. That would be wave 1…..

  38. phil1247 says:

    we have pushed above the 2595 previous extension long target
    creating a new extension …………….

    the new extension long is bullish above 2551 march futures
    rising wedge forming ?
    we are grinding up into the potential short with 2627 the .618 resistance
    resistance there cannot be proven until the extension long fails at 2551

  39. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony for the excellent midweek analysis, superbly detailed techicals and research.

    Interesting new chart additions, also noticed that you’re starting to use the Fibonacci retracement tool. Palladium appears to be unusual, the only precious metal in a mania bull market. May be worth looking at Microsoft since its now within the top 5 holding of all major index tracking funds. Bitcoin needs to stay above the 06-JAN low otherwise the bear market likely resumes. Quite possible the S&P500 is impulsive from the Christmas Eve low, looks like Santa did show up…

  40. Trader Sal says:

    ES came upto 2597 without any significant pullback from 2438.5. I was expecting a 3 waver like the (a) and (b) before in this chart below:

    Now I am not sure if there will be dip so close to the target ES2612 and start b of (c). Either way I think the bull bear line is at ES2612. If it tags it and turns around, that would mark the end of uptrend from 2317 on ES.

    Playing sub waves has been more difficult than trying to predict overall direction. I was harping about 2318 since nov first week when it was at 2800+ but by the time it got there I was in and out couple times and it wasnt well timed.

    Same thing on its way up.. made some good and some bad moves trying to time the waves to 2612. Case in point was the upturn at 2464 didnt materialize. Instead it went to 2438.5 before turning up..

    I think it makes sense to just sit out the smaller waves and give more time. One of these days I will get it right.

    But for now, all roads leading to ES2612.

    • forget about ppl saying it’s an ABC, recount the waves on hourly and you will see that’s wave 4 up (leg A up so far of a potential ABC) and it should be lower than wave 1 which had a low of 2603. so probably we put the top in today.

    • You had the call.

      This ran a 85 % correlation with my work

      How could you not be killing it ???

      • Trader Sal says:

        Yeah one of these days. (:o) futs are dangerous btw. Opts are more relaxing but option sellers wisened up after initial october debacle.

        • The call is still there..IT’s still money —> be more patient .YOu have good work – cut out the piker baby waves and play large , larger waves.

          the call is still there…9 yr uptrend ( we cut thru —> now overhead ) 2yr MA stuck

          https://www.tradingview.com/x/CyRqpU3E/

          https://www.tradingview.com/chart/YYGrtNqH/#

        • aahmichael says:

          Why do you say that futures are more dangerous than options? IMO, it’s the exact opposite. Options are way more dangerous than futures, and the odds of winning with options are exponentially smaller than trading futures.

          • courtesyoftc says:

            Financial Press:
            U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley said on Wednesday that Congress will not grant any expansion of President Donald Trump’s executive authority over tariff and other trade remedies

            Investors demanded cash back from U.S.-based funds for a 13th straight week, showing increased concern over economic growth as stock and bond returns disappointed, Investment Company Institute (ICI) data showed on Wednesday.

            • courtesyoftc, if POTUS declares emergency, Congress has no say in the matter, whether the wall, or trade. It bothers me to have so much power in one place, as I do NOT trust any politician, ever….

          • Trader Sal says:

            With futs u need more precision. Otherwise wider stop loss can get hit and still go your way. Playing opts is like playing etfs. More wiggle room. Can withstand gyrations if overall direction works. But you are right both have their pros and cons.

            • aahmichael says:

              Here’s why I disagree. With options, you have to be right on both price AND time. WIth futures, time is not a factor at all. Of course, many people will say that futures are more risky because you can lose more than 100% of your investment, however, that risk can easily be negated by using less leverage, or no leverage at all.

              • Agreed Michael. As long as a trader has a large-enough account size to take safe risk% of capital per trade, futures are the simplest, most versatile, and safest vehicle.

  41. lml25 says:

    Agree,not much more to go.I’ve seen those stats as well–11-18% rallies in bear markets.Usually 13% on average.When it turns,SPX will lose 50,after being up 10-20.Key reversal and all that.Katie Stockton says 2640 is the huge resistance–and she says,”still a bear market.Sell rallies.”
    Later all.

  42. jobjas says:

    ES projection

    • Now that looks like my assumptions. Did you read my mind? Maybe being around EW for so long my subconscious picked up the radical radio waves the aliens put out. Maybe EW is an alien projection? I placed a big bet at close today thinking simply we need a decent retrace before pushing to the 2700 area. I also note that my 6 to 7 months bear low will be violated if we were to shoot up this quickly. Tomorrow opens the door for a better look at the coming pattern.

  43. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  44. Hi Tony

    Perhaps I don’t say it enough…I appreciate the time and effort you put into this updates. I like your analysis with the levels to watch for a possible larger pullback. Quick question, with a negative divergence on your 60 minute SPX chart, if there is a pullback in SPX 2525 (approx. 50% retrace from the January 3 low at 2443 to today’s high and one of your pivots) and SPX rallies off that low, would that increase the probability of a wave 1,2,i,ii from the 2350 low?

    Your thoughts?

  45. Derek P. CT says:

    Thanks Tony. Very interesting here indeed. Popcorn ready.

  46. The wild card is a gap up in the morning over the resistance pivot. GL All!

  47. Greg Polites says:

    Hi Tony; The Zweig thrust indicator generated a fifth signal yesterday since the 2009 low. Following these four previous signals there has been a retest of previous low and only once (2015) was there a lower low put in before a major bull trend. Yesterday’s Zweig signal aligns with our current set of indicators that call for a retest pending of the December low. How do you view the Zweig indicator? Details and charts at https://hgpolites3.wordpress.com.
    Cheers, Greg

  48. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. Crude is also at important juncture testing extension short resistance. For a longer term traders its just better to wait for direction.

Comments are closed.