Weekend update

REVIEW

This volatile week started at SPX 2486. After a gap up opening Monday and rally to SPX 2509, the market went into chop mode ahead of the NY Day holiday. A gap down open started the action on Wednesday. After hitting SPX 2467 early the market rallied to SPX 2519. Thursday had another gap down opening. The market quickly dropped to SPX 2448, rallied to 2488, then dropped to 2444 just before the close. Friday a totally different story. After a gap up opening to SPX 2482 the market just kept on rising, hitting SPX 2538 before closing at SPX 2532. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.75%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.25%. Economic reports for the week were light and mixed. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, plus both jobless claims and the unemployment rate rose. On the uptick: the ADP, monthly payrolls, and auto sales. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the CPI, and ISM services. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

After the worse December since the year 1931 many of the market pundits capitulated and turned bearish. The SPX lost 9.2% on the month. It is probably best to describe 2018 as a bull sandwich: two three month corrections, with a six month uptrend in the middle. Net loss YoY 6.2%. Economically, the ECRI was making lower lows this week.

Last weekend we noted that just when many were turning bearish several foreign markets looked like they were in the last bear market downtrends: China, Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore, S. Korea, and Spain. This week China made a new bear market low, Hong Kong confirmed its last downtrend, S. Korea confirmed its last downtrend and made a new bear market low. S. Korea looks like it could be bottoming now.

An emerging market that is enjoying the fruits of its economic and political recovery is going mostly unnoticed. It just made new bull market highs in the first three days of this new year. The market: Brazil. After a market crash, along with nearly every other market, in 2008, the BVSP rose in a P1 bull market until 2010. Then economic/political trouble set in and a six year P2 bear market followed until the worldwide low in 2016. It has been rising in a P3 every since. Short term charts are on page 5 of the stock charts link below.

Nothing has changed on the long term count or the weekly chart. You can read last weekends update for more detail.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

Made some notes on the daily chart to prove a point. For those that think the POTUS and FED cannot move markets, think again. Note the four instances in December when the POTUS or FED did something market noteworthy. December 4th, Trumps tariff man morning tweet. The market was at SPX 2786. By December 26th the market had dropped to SPX 2347: -15.8%. Along the way Powell stated that rates and QT were on auto pilot during the rate hike pressor on December 19th. If you recall the SPX dropped 100 points between the time the FED raised rates and he finished his pressor one hour later. On December 24th the Presidents Working Group convened. Then on Christmas day, December 25th, Trump tweeted stocks are cheap. The SPX had closed at 2351 on the 24th, and has since rallied 8.0% at Friday’s high. Clearly Powell and Trump can move markets.

With the best surge in market breadth since the downtrend began it is possible Int. A ended at SPX 2347 and Int. B is currently underway. A 38.2% to 61.8% retracement would be normal for a B wave of this degree: SPX 2574 to 2714. It’s a large range but nothing this volatile market couldn’t handle in a couple of days.

We also see the possibility, as noted in the DOW charts, that Int. C is still underway. This was detailed in last weekends update. Either way we should be seeing a retest of the December lows before this bear market ends.

SHORT TERM

The pattern for this downtrend remains the same. An abc down to late October, a November B wave, then another abc down to late December. While the pattern has been unchanged, the wave degree has been a bit difficult to determine. Ideally, as noted last week, a drop to SPX 2310 would ideally fit the SPX and DOW.

Short term support is at the 2525 and 2479 pivots, with resistance at the 2575 and 2594 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading in the NY.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower and lost 0.8%.

European markets were all higher and gained 2.1%.

The DJ World index gained 1.5%, and the NYSE gained 2.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.6%.

Crude appears to be trying to get an uptrend going and gained 5.8%.

Gold remains in an uptrend and gained 0.2%.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 0.2%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: ISM services and factory orders at 10am. Tuesday: consumer credit. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Friday: the CPI and the Budget deficit. Best to your week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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759 Responses to Weekend update

  1. JUst once more
    <a href=”Put the URL inside these quotes marks”>Title of the Link Goes here</a>

  2. Dex T says:

    Trump’s latest twitter!

    “Just left a meeting with Chuck and Nancy, a total waste of time. I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO. I said bye-bye, nothing else works!”

    • Dex T says:

      Apparently he stormed out of the meeting! What does bye bye mean?

      Sounds like he is going to go through the national emergency at the border.

      • Complete lie and mischaracterization by Chuck, listen to Pence & GOP leaders describe the meeting. Trump never raised voice & never pounded the table. McCarthy suggested there SHOULD be cameras next time because he was astounded by Dem lie.

      • He cant declare a National Emergency and use funds for a Wall without Congressional approval. The U.S. Supreme Court is pretty clear about this.

        Just ask Harry Truman during the Korean War.

        • Yeah, but, I don’t think the N.K. dudes were coming over the southern border.
          That was the whole problem with those foreign wars (everything after 9/2/45).
          Those folks never showed up here.

          • Unfortunately Tom, you are completely missing the point made by the Supreme Court’s decision with regard to Truman and nationalizing the steel companies.

            The High Court’s decision was based on the separation of powers.

            Moreover, the Court ruled that a President’s war powers could not be applied to domestic policies.

            Trump cant do anything about a Wall without the approval of Congress.
            That’s a FACT.

            • I agree with you blue…if I can also add some color. The POTUS does have some wiggle room to transfer funds in all budgets, including the military budget…but the constitution is quiet clear that the transference of funds has to be related to the original/specific line item that was approved in the budget.

              In English, the constitution doesn’t permit the POTUS/Trump to transfer money from, for example, “buying bullets” to building a wall.

              • Agreed 100% Asaraniti !!!

                I’m surprised that there are people here that dont understand this ?

                The U.S. Supreme Court is quite clear about this subject from their ruling in 1952 when Truman tried to nationalize the steel industry during the Korean War. The declaration by Truman of a National Emergency had NOTHING to do with immigration of Koreans. 😀

                The Court’s decision was based on Separation of Powers!

                They ruled that the president’s authority to act must derive from an “act of Congress or from the Constitution itself”…. and not merely from his inherent executive powers and his authority as commander-in-chief.

                Do they not teach basic lessons on Separation of Powers in the schools anymore?

                https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/no-trump-cant-build-a-wall-through-military-eminent-domain/

            • At this point, by definition, we have absolutely no idea who is entering the country,whether with weapons, or contagious diseases.

              OK Truman tried nationalizing the steel industry, Yes, a not starter.
              Trump is not seizing anything, nationalizing anything.
              His position is simply “We’re being invaded“.

              Congress needs to respond in a coherent manner, with dispassionate view on their own re-election.
              Now … hold your breadth.

              • You clearly don’t get it.

                A.) Trump is seeking to use his executive power as President to declare a National Emergency.

                B.) He wishes to use this “declaration” as the basis to appropriate money to build a Wall along our Southern Border.

                C.) The Supreme Court has clearly ruled that Trump cannot do so.

                D.) They ruled that the president’s authority to act must derive from an “act of Congress or from the Constitution itself”…. and not merely from his inherent executive powers and his authority as commander-in-chief.

                E.) End of story.

          • SIX known watch list individuals in 2018? Batten down the hatch!
            6,000 in airports and ports. Build a wall in each of those first! Silly people with silly delusional notions.

            • Gary, now who is spinning?…I heard that silly quote yesterday and a custom border supervisor said in response, “the operative word is “known”….our intelligence agencies, don’t know how many illegal aliens came into the U.S. though our southern border, that are on our “watch list” because they haven’t been captured yet!!!! I have no clue as to how many there are…but 1 is too many as far as I am concerned.

              This argument is so silly. Obama/Dems (continuing resolution budgets) increased our countries debt from 9 -19 trillion dollars….and now the Dems are concerned about 5 billion dollars? …which BTW, will save us enormous amount of money when you consider 65% of illegal aliens are on Federal assistance programs, and the cost of healthcare and education is astronomical. The Dems don’t want the wall because it cuts off potential future voters to their party becasue the Dem party is void of any new ideas on how to move the country forward.

          • Ummm…. the Supreme Court decision overriding President Truman had nothing to do with Koreans coming over here. It was about using Presidential emergency power to nationalize the steel companies. 😀

        • Bluehorse, yes he can, during a govt shutdown. Obama did it. Others have done it. As long as govt shutdown, Trump can do it.

        • EL MATADOR says:

          Ya might want to re-read the Patriot Act….there is a thought

          • I’ve read it Matador.

            I’ve read Title IV of it as it relates to Border Security. I’m also aware of when major parts of it expired and became the USA Freedom Act which expires this year. And I’m aware of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA).

            Please show me where Title IV gives the President executive power to build a Wall without money appropriated by Congress.

            Thanks.

            • EL MATADOR says:

              Blue, nothing anyone will say to you will persuade you until SCOTUS rules on it. This is a know fact for the 99%. Another know fact is that no one single statute grants Trump the power to build the wall, nonetheless, various statues concurrently will grant Trump the powers to build the wall. That said, here is some food for thought,

              https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-debate-over-emergency-powers-and-the-border-wall

              On another note, I already placed my bookie bet that Trump will get his wall build. I am anticipating to make out big just like my Trump presidential election win bet.

              • A,) SCOTUS has already ruled and made their intention known.

                B.) Your own link above agrees with me.

                “The Appropriations Clause would appear to categorically enjoin the President and federal agencies to spend funds only as appropriated by Congress. Even where the President believes that federal spending is urgently needed, spending in the absence of appropriations is constitutionally prohibited.

                C.) I made over 7 figures in EXAS last year.
                I care about making money in the markets. I couldn’t care less about our Game Show Host president. 😀

            • EL MATADOR says:

              Blue, you asked where Trump was going to get the money “to build the wall without money appropriated by Congress” The article provided two probable options, of many other, under US Code statue 2293 and 2808. I like how you ignore this important fact. Also there are fundamental differences between US Govt trying to nationalize an industry vs trying to construct civil work projects…just saying. Trump will get the last laugh when it’s over, IMHO.

              • A.) He had a Republican MAJORITY for 2 YEARS in CONGRESS and couldn’t find any money for his Wall. 😀

                B.) If you think that the Dems like Pelosi and Schumer are gonna cave on this, you are sadly mistaken.

                C.) Trump is already losing key GOP Senators who aren’t supportive of his Wall.

                D.) And his BASE (like the Farmers) are getting pretty pissed off at having to endure a ton of pain with his trade policy…. and now they cant get their crop subsidy checks from the Govt. because the USDA is closed and cant calculate crop yield data.

                E.) So much WINNING!

    • What was a total waste of time was Me watching the three of them speak for 25 minutes last night.

  3. micky says:

    Nice going here on Tony’s chat board.

  4. Hmm. Did market just get hit in head by a brick that was going to be used to build the wall? Have to wonder about a gap up over resistance tomorrow. The shutdown, fights and squabbles continue, and eventually might not be good for markets. Of course, the IRS will remain open! LOL!

    • riderbobo says:

      Trump calls meeting with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi a ‘total waste of time’ after he storms out
      Published 6 min ago

      • riderbobo says:

        “I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO,” Trump explained in a tweet as Pelosi and Schumer described the walk-out to reporters.

        “I said bye-bye, nothing else works!” Trump added.

        • H D says:

          here’s an idea to fix his wall idea…. have MX pay for it- you know instead of the American tax payer. Real conservative….

        • I think if Trump declares Emergency, stocks might retest lows, esp. if Fed tries to tap dance another rate hike in March, and no REALLY SOLID China deal.

          • A National Emergency for what?

            The Supreme Court has made it pretty clear that the President cannot use any funds (without Congress approval) for a National Emergency.

            Just ask Harry Truman during the Korean War when Truman wanted to nationalize the steel industry under a National Emergency.

        • Dex T says:

          Just saw this posted and I posted above.

          Tony,

          If you read this you can delete my posting above about Trump’s twitter.

    • Trump had a very short meeting with Pelosi and Schumer.

      He’s still wanting $5 Billion for a “Wall” (which will wind up costing $25 Billion).
      He’s got no leverage. No Plan B or Plan C.

  5. NYSE A/D line is +1537 heading into the last hour and back to the levels of Dec. 5th.

    Meanwhile, the NYA is roughly 300 points lower.

    • mcgcapital says:

      This is why it doesn’t show anything for me. Since 5th December nearly every day there has been a big trending day either up or down. By definition, a big move makes it much more likely that all stocks are positive or negative.. because if the mean return is +1%, there’s a skew so many more stocks will return >0%. And the opposite for -1% days. During bear markets correlations go towards 1 as stocks are being moved by wider macro factors rather than sector or company specific news much more. So A/D will be strong on up moves and weak on down moves. Makes it a fairly meaningless statistic

      • Timing-wise, I use it to wait for a positive or negative divergence relative to the cash market (NYA).

        Been using it that way ever since Victor Sperandeo taught me that (and about Dow Theory) back in 1984.

        But I also use it on a nominal basis simply to confirm strength or weakness. Keeps me out of trouble. 🙂

      • stockop says:

        based on some breadth indicators that use the NYSE A/D we’re at near record overbought levels. A majority of top 10 in July and September 2009 (4 in july and 3 in september), Jan and march 2009 with one each. And july 2016. Will be most overbought all time for Nasdaq using its A/D.

        Last overbought was December 6th (became overbought on the 3rd). Could go on for a while, but the basis is we’re incredibly overbought using the NYSE A/D i’ve seen posted 20x in the past few days.

        I am seeing selling in some of my follows that could not catch a whiff of selling in December. Really think this could end badly if we do end up going down. If the sentiment indicators which have become so popular since 2016 fail just how many people would be on the wrong side? (Gundlach just recommended following them. where was this advice in 2016?)

        If anyone is bullish for reasons other than there are too many bears I would appreciate your input. that includes “the bears might be wrong and growth beats expectations”. you’re still just betting against the bears. why might the bears be wrong?. I’ve always wondered what could have blown Livermore up and my conclusion is a situation similar to this. Something that works at a near impeccable rate all of the sudden failing would do it. With the government doing massive policy overhauls to boot.

        • mcgcapital says:

          The only indicator I’m watching right now is price.. we’ve bounced from the lows as expected and retraced into an area where most would expect once it picked up traction. Looks much more impressive if it clears 2600s but until then it’s just a counter trend rally, and it’s behaviour suggests to me that it’s just that

          On indicators, I can see the merit in them when they trigger from a fairly static starting point. For example, when they triggered after Trump’s election or Brexit we’d been in a relatively tight range beforehand. They triggered on range expansion and it shows you that something fundamentally had changed

          On this move, we have a wider range. The readings are completely meaningless

        • StockOp…

          I don’t use the A/D in regards to overbought and oversold for the simple reason that getting overbought is a sign of strength…. and markets that are overbought have a tendency to stay overbought. Its been my experience that getting short using the A/D when it gets overbought (like above 80) is the path to ruin.

  6. Triangle Ping Pong, breaking thru resistance. 2602ish next?

  7. lml25 says:

    Some of the most dovish Fed minutes in memory.

    • yep, things arent as good as promised. so no interest rate hikes for 2019 maybe 1. jack it up higher. lets go.. if market dropped 8 percent in 3 days we would all be in panic and CNBC would be having specials on at night. up 8 percent ah lets aprty some more

      • Dex T says:

        I don’t see any real difference. The comments are in line with what Powell and the others said this past Friday.

        The entire Fed rate strategy has been cautious since they began the first hike in Dec 2015

        They hiked 4 times in 2018 and only promised 2 in 2019

        • Dex T says:

          Honestly the economy is pathetic! Rates are only just over 2% and so much insecurity because of it.

          After years of quantative easing this is it?

          • Called deflationary pressures from massive debt structure. that structure getting larger. BUT as we all have seen this sucker can continue longer than anyone expects. musical chairs, when does the music stop.

            • Dex T says:

              Some of the music will stop or at least alter once Trump renegotiates trade deals with China. That is a massive unwind.

              • Dex, I think this China “Deal” will take a while. There will be increments in which China says it will do this or that, but they won’t do squat. Trump will then get mad, send people back to the table to reaffirm. And on, and on.

              • Dex T says:

                Completely agree Morticiaaddams!

                The deal could take years to finalize and definitely several months.

                I can’t see the Chinese voluntary agreeing because there is far too much to lose on their end. Trump will be forced to squeeze them until they cannot take any additional pressure and will be forced to relent under the threat of even more pain.

                I only hope that Trump is able to continue through

              • Oh, I think China will agree (lie), then do as they like, which pisses off Trump, who then starts another round with them, China lies again, etc. The Chinese are not really afraid of us. They own a good portion of our debt, and have been allowed to purchase large portions of real estate, including farm land, and other assets here in US. They also know that us “spoiled” Americans will start screaming when tariffs send prices sky high. And round and round it will go. The only thing that might hinder China is Food. I know they have lands in Africa they’re utilizing for crops, as the failures have been pretty bad lately.

                Meanwhile, The Fed hates Trump too. How many fronts Trump can fight on at the same time remains to be seen, but there will be a Fed fight as well.

  8. phil1247 says:

    chris

    2595 es target hit

    grrrrrrrrrrrr

  9. next 3 possible stops
    2618 where aC equals A
    2644 .50 of the entire move down
    2713 .618 of the entire move down

  10. 1:30 moving hour going to push sp to 2610 today

  11. fxaprendiz says:

    While this correction from 2942 will last several months more, the worst price-wise is over. What remains to be played out is mostly sideways action with a lower low resolution at the end.

    Whether this is a decline of Intermediate or Primary degree remains to be seen, and actually that will be more important only later, when the next significant decline comes past the year 2022. That decline will be the one that triggers a recession, not the current one.

    Speaking of recessions, I have now enough fundamental information to support my technical view of this present decline not triggering one. 3 previous conditions need to be present before the stock market peaks and an economic contraction follows. None were present by the time the SPX 2942 top was printed so that wasn’t the final peak.
    1. The VIX. Its weekly SMA(20) needs to be above 20 way before the SPX peak happens.
    2. The yield curve. Its spread inverts previously (1-2 years in advance) to the stocks market peak, and usually is already positive by the time the peak comes.
    3. The business cycle. Its peak comes before the actual peak in the stocks market. They never happen in tandem.

    I already had information in the first 2 items, but needed a way to determine the 3rd one, so I looked for it for several days, and finally found a professor on economics whose main focus is determining the phases of the business cycle. I’m still reading all his material, but the takeaway is that this business cycle while mature hasn’t peaked just yet. I highly recommend you study his material, you can find his articles in seekingalpha.com under his name David Rice, and check his site econpi.com

    I’m going to be checking these 3 items regularly and I’m planning on posting an update in here like 2 times a month, that is if the trolls in here leave me alone. First update will come later today or tomorrow.

  12. In my thoroughly uneducated view, the rectangle breakdown for the SPX (which I did not expect) occurred at about 2610-2612 or so. It’s a gently climbing bottom line and so I think it may be tested at about 2625.

    Once past that (now or a bit later) the next test should be the top of the next (crash-defined) rectangle ….. which will be at about 2675 or thereabouts in the near term.

    Only if and when we clear that and stabilize will we be trading in the old rectangle in a “normal” way.

    V-shaped recovery? Low probability, but the world works in strange ways.

  13. https://www.pbs.org/video/in-money-we-trust-ox6o7a/“>In Money We Trust
    This is a one hour documentary on hard money (gold) versus fiat currency.
    Most of it is well known by the folks on here.
    Especially the part about the FED buying US. Treas paper and flooding the economy with currency.
    The film has short clips of a lot of Central Bankers, e.g. Paul Volker
    I think of the FED like the Wizard of OZ “Nobody sees the Wizard !!

    One interesting point of the film is there is a whole industry of smart people who track the FED and anticipate what it will really do. That is as opposed to a “hard” currency, where there are no changes to anticipate. The point is that all these smart financial folks (like everyone here) could be doing something else (fin cures for diseases, better green technology, or creating beautiful art.)

    It’s worth a watch.

    • Yes. But we are in a middle ground, pitiful as it is.

      Just imagine if all the smart people here (me excluded, because I’m a closet saint 🙂 ) were off devising DH-methods to rob banks.

      🙂

    • Dex T says:

      They could, in theory, but many of these people don’t actually have the talent and definitely not the interest to become professionals in these areas.

      There are definitely way too many people caught up in the bureaucracy but it’s a comfortable area for many who seek security and stability.

  14. trejder74 says:

    Tonys pivot right now
    2593.95

    Free to go down now 😀

  15. Dex T says:

    How Much Will Jeff Bezos’ Divorce Cost the World’s Richest Man?

    “Jeff and Mackenzie Bezos were married for 25 years.
    Mackenzie Bezos could be worth more than $60 billion after the divorce.

    Jeff Bezos is getting a divorce from Mackenzie Bezos after 25 years. He posted a note on Twitter. According to him, they would do it all over again.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/much-jeff-bezos-divorce-cost-170811774.html

    • Dex T says:

      So Bezos is getting divorced. How will this effect AMZN going forward since his wife is likely going to get a substantial share of the stock

      Will she liquidate much of her holdings?

      • riderbobo says:

        If she were spiteful, with that much money she could blow the stock out and do a number on hubby.

        • Dex T says:

          It is possible I don’t know. It’s not clear from what I’ve read whether there was prenup or what the terms are.

          Even if she is not spiteful she has her own interests and could very well liquidate large amounts and use that cash to pursue them.

  16. I’ve thrown in the towel on this bear.
    I can’t know anything about “deals done”, what he FED really has on their mind.
    Or what Trump will do with Pres XI.
    Hat tip to Phil, who said the FED is done, Maybe so.

    • Dex T says:

      But the Fed is not done. A market rally is only going to reassure them that Wall street is throwing another tantrum and go back to their scheduled rate rise.

      • Yeah, I know Dex.
        But can’t fight the tape.
        Somebody knows something.
        Of course, I only buy stuff I can get out of in 2 seconds.

        • Dex T says:

          I would wait until the actual Fed meetings.

          Fed Fund futures have crept up from last week so likelihood of a rate increase is greater.

          • Dex, I actually think the China deal is much larger than what the FED does.
            There’s a large aspect of National Security in the China talks, so we will not know what really happened, maybe years. But big money gets “plugged” into those kind of discussions, which is what I suspect is going on.
            Trump in no way wants to harm the Chinese economy.
            And for the Chinese, its all about “Saving Face”
            Trump is a master at that stuff.

            Just remember what that Trump had the guy from NK eating out of his hand, and no previous POTUS could make any headway at all.

          • Why would an Active Trader tie their risk management to “waiting” for the next Fed Meeting on Jan. 29-30th or March 19-20th?

            • Dex T says:

              Note- I didn’t say anything about that. I was commenting on Fed rate hikes when he said the Fed is “done”. It’s an ongoing process.

              Whatever TomF’s trading strategy is his business.

              • I’m sorry.
                I thought for sure that I read your first sentence in your earlier post as “I would wait until the actual Fed meetings”

              • Dex T says:

                Yes for interest rate policy. If you read TomF’s post you would see he is discussing the Fed and I commented in that as I noted above.

                The Federal Reserve doesn’t meet to discuss TomF’s trading strategy.

          • Fed Funds Futures this morning were pricing NO CHANGE for the target rate (2.25 – 2.50%) for the remainder of 2019.

            In fact, the implied probability for keeping the target rate steady at the Jan. 30th policy meeting is currently 99.5% based on the futures.

            March is near 90%.

            June, July, Sept, and Oct, are at 75%

            • Percentages change as the race gets closer. Powell’s going to do whatever he wants, and Trump is going to rant about it. Ongoing for an unknown length of time…

            • Dex T says:

              I didn’t say that, I only said that the chance had increased from last week meaning the odds are higher than they were.

              I’ve seen the Fed game before. If the market continues to rally they will definitely be announcing a rate increase and chalk it back up to Wall street insecurity.

              At every downturn the Fund futures dropped and then increase again as the market recovers.

              • Odds are higher than they were?
                From what level exactly?

                And why would that even make a difference when the Fed Funds futures are not implying any kind of probability of a hike?

              • Dex T says:

                From last week when I was checking them as I commented above. I was referring to last Thursday before the Fed’s meeting and this current rally.

                The point I was/am making is that they are subject to constant change. At every downturn the odds decline and as it rally’s again the odds increase. This has been the game for years.

    • Besides, it’s a lot more fun being long.
      Sleep too.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Fed is done hiking but its because the economy will be too weak to raise more. This is all still fairly normal for a counter rally, we won’t know for sure until the next sell off what’s in store. Feels fairly relentless at the moment but it’s unlikely to last

    • FED works on it’s own data unless a debacle is underway. The latest data confirmed exactly why there was no ambiguity on raising rates. Fastest pace in jobs and wages in a very long time. Data dependent and that is what he has been doing, as all before him have done. read into conspiracies and secret intent all you want. bottom line they are prognosticators and sometimes they get it wrong. KISS.

  17. Tony mentioned the PWG, better known as the Plunge Protection Team back on Dec 26, does anyone know if this is still active?

    • H D says:

      PWG, created by executive order in 1988 by Reagan, a so called champion of free market capitalism and unrestricted free market activity….

    • watch futures lately? Flat until 7 then pop. thats the PPT getting things rolling in futures. prop it up all night, wake up no down day pile on to the upside. rinse and repead 9-12 days ish. samething will happen tonight. jack it straight up. they cant manipulate the market, but they can push futures in a direction . 2615-2635 target by tomorrow.

      • lml25 says:

        And the ECB pumps up Europe as well,to keep a floor underneath.

      • I have two questions for you….

        1.) You say that the PPT can’t manipulate the market…. but at the same time you also claim that they can push futures around in a direction. How is that not manipulation?

        2.) If you believe in the PPT and their rinse and repeat “pattern” …. are you taking advantage of their presence in the market and making a ton of money?

    • tony caldaro says:

      they probably closed out after a week or so
      primary dealers I’d imagine are still loaded with ES

  18. Luxury homes sales in Vancouver continued to collapse in the second half of last year, says Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. Prices dropped 26% on the year, but got hit for a whopping 36% in the second half of 2018 (YoY).

    Meanwhile, on the other side of the Country…. Toronto saw prices recover a bit in the second half (+4%) after ending up down 31% on the full-year.

    • Real estate sector getting walloped today. Down over 1%. Actually, half the 10 select sector spiders are in the red at the moment, even with the market up. That’s a change from the past few days.

    • riderbobo says:

      I live in Victoria and in December the benchmark price for townhomes hit a record high.
      That is all I care about.

      Vancouver single-family homes have been a haven for Asian money laundering. Efforts are being made to stop it. Other segments of the Vancouver housing market are holding up well, particularly condos.

      • Anything above $1.0 million in VANCOUVER (the luxury market definition) is getting HAMMERED. Those homes fell 26% last year. Meanwhile, home sales priced at $4.0 million or more fell 49% year over year.

        The only Canadian metro-market that was up last year was Montreal at +20%

        https://www.cp24.com/news/luxury-home-sales-fall-in-toronto-montreal-and-calgary-in-2018-sotheby-s-1.4246501

        • riderbobo says:

          Prices were up for single-family homes, townhouses and condos in Victoria, BC, the 2nd largest Metro area in the province.

          The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in December 2017 was $832,000. The benchmark value for the same home in December 2018 increased by 3.2 per cent to $858,600, lower than November’s value of $865,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in December 2017 was $464,300, while the benchmark value for the same condominium in December 2018 increased by 8.2 per cent to $502,400, slightly more than November’s value of $500,500.

        • tomasso60 says:

          left wing policies were like a sledge hammer on the real estate market in BC. the government cannot let markets act in a natural manner – they have to kill things and they do.

  19. phil1247 says:

    tore

    if you can
    exit at -618 target near 52.56

    CL = moneymaker !

  20. purplember says:

    CL taking off where does it top ?

  21. Jim Paulsen at the Leuthold Group is Bullish. Says that a “recession will be avoided in the foreseeable future.” Doesn’t see any extremes or excesses with lending, borrowing, the consumer is in great shape, and the Fed wont be raising rates anytime soon. He sees 2800 – 3000 on the S&P and likes the following areas:

    1.) International markets over US counterparts
    2.) Buy weak US dollar beneficiaries like materials, energy, and industrial sectors.
    3.) Buy financials as the yield curve starts to curve again.
    4.) Buy small-cap stocks which should outperform.
    5.) Reestablish an overweight in tech, but focus on small caps

  22. trejder74 says:

    Phil or someone else,
    have we seen the top 2589?
    bear or bull?

  23. Dog and Pony show: “”The Trump administration wants to ensure that China keeps its commitments in any deal that is reached. To that end, the statement said, officials discussed “the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement.”” Interpretation: Doubt they implement what we demand and will not change our policy till there is evidence of such change. Stop trying to become a tech leader and stay in your place. How likely is that going to go?

    How the street takes it will determine if the market has the will to ride up another 100 SPX points. I see today as a possible turning point in time and target price. I suspect the market will do what it has in the past and only show it’s hand after the close. Tomorrow we know for sure how well the street thinks this is a positive event. I also agree that OIL has been in sync with the rise in stocks. Yet another segment that might give us a clue for the future movement in stocks.

  24. phil1247 says:

    chris

    es
    still STRAIGHT up to 95 target

  25. xEVAx says:

    Still looking for straight down to retest the lows….

  26. Okay, I’ll be the Simple Simon that suits my mentality… Institutional funds are not always placed by the 2nd or 3rd trading days of January, they do have flexibility, and I think that’s what’s going on. Haaay. 2581 is HWB @ 50, 2637 is 61.8.

    • I’m seeing the past 4 days as a short squeeze into resistance. Today is the first day that the pop hasn’t been fairly uniform throughout most sectors. Really mixed bag today.

  27. Sethu,
    Do You have any intermediate/long term counts?

    Thanks

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