Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +19

For the first three days of this holiday shortened week the Asian markets lost 0.9%, and the European markets gained 0.5%. The US market after doing two zigzags up from the SPX 2347 downtrend low, may have started the third zigzag at today’s SPX 2467 low. The previous zigzags were: [2367] 2414-2394-2468 and [2398] 2508-2473-2520. This third one could be: [2467] 2519-2495-xxxx. Had the first leg up of this potential zigzag exceeded SPX 2520 we would feel better that another one is underway.

A market maker in the making. Bernanke, Powell and Yellen get together on Friday morning for a round table discussion. Will Powell announce a QT freeze? Short term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 and 2575 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading and Happy New Year!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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396 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. phil1247 says:

    59 is exit short es

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    • phil1247 says:

      49 es target hit
      now bounce or collapse ?

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      • xEVAx says:

        Donno but I just sold a small amount of ST treasuries, that was hard but WTF, still got plenty…. If Im honest I have no desire to “invest”, above 2000 SPX and even that is rich…. Hoping for a good recession so I can hire construction labor cheap to build a bunker and expand the compound with a rental property…. Looks like DOW 20K is the next stop….

        Like

        • phil1247 says:

          hi eva
          do you mean you took profits on 5 yr notes that you have
          or you shorted them ?

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        • ttsden says:

          xEVAx beautiful coded name.
          IMHO Ms S&P has her destiny to go exponential, parabolic to at least 3600,
          and may kiss 4000 by 2020. Study NASDAQ 1995 – 2000.for precedent and clues.
          Buy only Transformational Stocks to reap 10 x times your money, whilst Stock Markets advance nearly 2x times !
          BTW I do not smoke.

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          • xEVAx says:

            Well Something will no doubt LOL… I have a bullish count on the stocks just to fade myself I guess but even after today it’s still holding long term support and just by looking at it I can see that in the charts IF support holds…. My problem is how??? My turn dates are 2021 and 2024, but is that the top at DOW 38-40K or the bottom at DOW 1K??? Wish I knew….
            “GSE” “tech” bubble stocks never have had appeal to me though and I am enjoying watching them tank…..

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      • phil1247 says:

        rogues can put small shorts back on near 70
        thats all folks
        see ya!

        Like

  2. jobjas says:

    AAPL ready for a bounce

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  3. Philippe V says:

    Hi Fiona,
    Any time frame on these targets of yours or your “system” only gives price levels with no timing indication ?

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    • thecustomer14 says:

      I believe she’s using P&F charts for many of the targets, which if so, would not suggest any set time frame

      Like

    • fionamargaret says:

      .Philippe, .$SPX (the index) should remain somewhat stable (6 months), but if I give you a price for a stock, it changes more frequently.
      GE I suggested in the 20’s as going to 4….still the same.
      Now TLT suggests 143…that has recently changed into a bullish format…
      I shall leave my ideas regularly, and if there is a stock you are interested in, just ask….
      Sorry for taking so long to reply….x

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      • fionamargaret says:

        TMF (3xTLT) up to 28.5

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        • fionamargaret says:

          Quadruple top breakout in TLT today, but I did suggest it a couple of weeks ago….
          P&F basically says “here is the data and how we got here, so this is what is expected from here”….a continuation of the configuration….

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          • Fiona our friend JNUG is being a model citizen today…….breakout with a 16 target. Perhaps some new shoes for Davy.

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          • fionamargaret says:

            Absolutely David….just be careful, I still expect a washout at some point in time, where. absolutely everything is subject to selling….
            I still think we get to 1851 for the $SPX….did have 2300 or so before…do well…

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          • Noted Fiona……Hey ! where’s my “x” ?? 😂🤣😂

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          • ttsden says:

            Fionamargaret Please do not use a Rear view mirror. Your downside targets are
            years too early. 2026 will see S&P @ 1000! in the meantime BP and her Oil & Gas Sisters
            will be Dinosaurs, followng in foot steps of GE . Middle East will go Bankrupt lead by Saudi Arabia. Their Bank already in the Red.

            Like

  4. schizo1688 says:

    Gold 1300 .. is it time to short yet ?

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  5. tommyboys says:

    AAPL might get us to the 3rd zigzag low… 2250-2325 (?)

    Like

  6. phil1247 says:

    tore

    its still not TBT time yet ….
    bonds and notes are straight up
    in extensions

    dont jump the gun

    Like

  7. Good morning all….
    As a follow up to my post last night, /ES continued to decline as Asia and Europe wanted to sell first and ask questions second. Currently, /ES is trading in no mans land, in between a 50% short and a 50% long. /ES never traded to it’s 50% short at 2460, it did trade to 2462.75 but the algorithm says the long never traded, so that is the first short target for the bears to achieve. The next important target for the bears is the bull/bear line in the sand, the 61.8% long at 2445. If that level breaks, expect further decline to 2413 and 2433.

    For the bulls, if 2460 doesn’t trade soon, there could be a rather large counter trend rally perhaps to the 50% short at 2491.

    Bottom line…../ES 2445 bullish above and bearish below.

    Like

    • /ES had the counter trend rally to 2490 6 ticks shy of the 50% short. Algorithm “says” it did not trade, therefore /ES can come back up to test that level (potentially a dangerous second test, as the second time /ES can rally about the 61.8% short…trend change to bullish.

      Currently, /ES is trading at 2483.50. As long as the short levels hold, target is the 50% Long at 2460. Chart above.

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      • riderbobo says:

        I believe the futures popped following the much stronger than expected ADP report.

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        • rider…possible but …./ES trading up to 2491 was on the charts as a possibility last night and the probability increased when I posted the updated chart above…..the fact that /ES traded to 2462.75 and not the 2460 was potentially a big deal as it opened the door to 2491.

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          • riderbobo says:

            Another attempt here..

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          • yep…but this is important. The bear case just improved a bit, why?…. /ES did continue the counter trend rally and was stopped dead in it’s tracks at the 50% short @ 2491 to the tick. Now, the fact that it tested that level, was defended and is now selling off increases the probability that /ES will test 2460. I am only talking probabilities here.

            Can /ES trade back up again?… of course and that would be dangerous, as the third time up, may just continue to rally and break the corresponding 61.8% short…that would be a trend change to bullish.

            Like

          • levels to watch for the next CTR..
            1. 2462.75 overnight low
            2. 2460 50% LONG
            3. 2449 PT of this measured move short
            4. 2445.13 61.8% LONG
            5. <2445 Houston we have a problem.

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          • CTR probably over. /ES traded to just above it’s 50% Short @ 2470 at the same time /VX tested it’s 61.8% long 24.24. As long as these levels hold I expect a retest of the low. If /VX breaks it’s 61.8% LONG at 24.24, continue higher….if /ES trades above 2475 the CTR continues.

            Like

  8. Jack Lad says:

    Crazy charts. I look for confirmation of doom and gloom and all I get is positive rubbish…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2019/01/crude-oil-wti-futures.html

    Like

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    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/researchers-have-turned-a-spinach-leaf-into-working-heart-tissue?utm_content=buffere67ef&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    CRON Stock Biotech Firm Of Hemp plant

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    Like

  10. Twosidedtape1 says:

    If APPL earnings are being affected so strongly by the China trade situation, and if there is no end is sight to it, then wouldn’t it stand to reason that many, many other companies will be affected similarly? No one knows how deep this goes. And what of the odds of a recession? Shouldn’t they be increased? There are going to be earnings hits all over the place and no one nows for sure where or how big they will be. Sounds like the recipe for an unhappy market.

    Like

    • fenster6 says:

      But remember a sage wise old man said…
      “Trade wars are fun!”

      Like

      • fionamargaret says:

        Sage wise old man as referenced by Carl Jung leads us into quite an interesting backdrop.
        There are the Seven Sages of Greece, Seven Sages of the Bamboo Grove, the Sages of Talmudic Lore and Ziya, Khiem and Zarathustra (who I think you might be relating to).
        Zarathustra, the Persian avestan sage in perpetual tension between good and evil…..interesting stuff Fenster.

        Like

        • fenster6 says:

          yes indeed Fiona Zarathrusthra was were a lot of the concepts of good and evil have come down to us. There is a fight in the universe between good and evil. He was asked how can you tell what is good and what is evil. maybe one day it is is evil to fight but another time you must fight to protect the innocent.

          Look into your heart and you will know. Good thoughts, good words and good deeds will take you there.

          My reference was a swipe at a very unwise and unsage but old man who is our current leader.

          Like

          • Yet he is the only leader we have ever had that has punched China, dealt with them on the issues face-to-face, instead of being doormats to them, exactly how the previous four Presidents did. Or you could be Barack Obama, and commit Treasonous acts to try to throw the election in your favor. Maybe you are the unwise one. No, for sure you are the unwise one. Maybe you should go fly some drones around the border and call it “border security”. Yea, go do that.

            Like

          • tommyboys says:

            Can you imagine if Trump woulda received debate questions from Brazile in favor of other candidates like Hilary did? They’d a had him crucified – ha! Poor Bernie 🤔. What if Republicans paid to have a little fiction written on Obama or Hilary then based a multi-year, multi-million dollar, taxpayer funded “investigation” on it 🤔. Libs and even Leftists were strongly in favor of a wall (barrier) chronically in the past and even funded it with tens of billion$ (of course their swamp blew it elsewhere). Now that we have a leader that takes action and will use any appropriations for their actual intended purpose he gets a war – why? Because – once again – it exposes the swamp for what it is – incompetent, self serving wastes of skin, who desperately crave back power and control feeding themselves on the backs of the middle class – driving this country into the ground. Trump 2020.

            Like

          • aahmichael says:

            Welcome to the Swamp 2019:

            As of today, DOD will be run by a former senior Boeing executive, EPA is run by a former coal lobbyist, HHS is run by a former pharmaceutical lobbyist, and Interior will be run by a former oil-industry lobbyist. #MAGA

            Like

          • aah…nice to see successful business people running these depts as opposed to politicians who failed to win their last election.

            Do want Warren to be sec of Treasury? … there goes the banking industry
            Do you want that tree hugger/environmental wacko from CA, Styler(?) to run the EPA? there goes our economy… paper, fishery, energy etc., our economy goes into bankruptcy
            Do you want Cortez to be sec of HHS, there goes healthcare
            I could go on but you get the message.
            BTW, who do you think writes all these bills anyway? lobbyists!!!

            Like

          • aahmichael says:

            Asa, I guess you’ve never heard of “conflicts of interest”, or perhaps you just don’t care. By the way, the purpose and mission of government has nothing in common with the purpose and mission of business.

            Like

          • kingfrogcash says:

            Conflicts of interest is a myth. Remember Dick Cheney getting with $HAL to get all the oil fields in Iraq as the reason for war? Yeah, never happened except in the minds of the Left. Conflict of interest is when the Sec of State has employees working for the Clinton Foundation. And got away with it by the career Gov emp.

            Like

          • fenster6 says:

            Yes trump 3030 with 41% and dropping approval rate . Only if her completely destroys democracy which I am sure he will give it his best shot.

            Like

    • mcgcapital says:

      Yes exactly.. many more will be issuing similar guidance which is going to make it difficult for stocks to rise. Furthermore, this isn’t so much about trade wars but slowing growth. It seems like most people in the US think ‘oh well China seem to be struggling, they’ll come to some sort of trade deal with Trump. Then we will have preferential terms vs currently, and everything can go back to normal. The economy will carry on growing, and stocks will carry on going up.’ That’s all I seem to be reading, but it’s the wrong narrative.

      It seems fairly obvious to me from the noises coming from both Trump and Xi that something is going to be agreed. Will probably be a climbdown from the US because they’re worried about falling markets and it making them less re-electable.

      But the Chinese problem is because they overleveraged their economy on cheap credit when the Fed did QE and exported low rates. Now that’s ended, liquidity is lower, the dollar has risen and the interest rate on credit is no longer cheap. It’s obvious their economy is going to crash with it… there’s not much you can do unless the fed loosen policy and the Chinese take on even more debt to keep it going. Doesn’t seem likely as Powell only seems to be looking at the US domestic economy when making decisions. The problem with that is, China is going to slow to such an extent that there will be a US recession too. Ending the trade war is a sideshow and will cause a relief rally, nothing more.

      Like

      • MCG: Different and interesting perspective. You clearly are one who thinks for himself.

        Like

        • mcgcapital says:

          Thanks George. I always try and find a narrative that fits with the price action.. if the financial media one around ending the trade war leads to continuing bull was right, we should be rallying in anticipation of a deal given a deal is being signposted by policy makers. Given that we aren’t, that tells me the narrative isn’t right and something else is going on

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      • MCG: Have you given much thought to the fact that China has been “supporting” their various companies which normally would have gone out of business? China needs the USA and thieves like Apple which have put more stolen property in their wallet (IP theft) than many struggling US companies that have gone broke because of their crimes.

        Like

        • mcgcapital says:

          There are lots of companies that are being supported by artificially low rates that would have gone under across the world. Plus in China there is artificial demand created by government policy which keeps many zombie companies alive. All of these things are sustainable whilst markets rise, growth continues and credit is easily accessible. Once the cycle turns, which I think it has, they become major problems. That’s why I think China is going to be the trigger point for the next crisis as they have lots of these companies, and also not much transparency in the data so it can unwind very quickly.

          As for Apple I think that’s a separate issue. They abuse their dominant market position but it’s not illegal

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