Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then rebound, DOW +19

For the first three days of this holiday shortened week the Asian markets lost 0.9%, and the European markets gained 0.5%. The US market after doing two zigzags up from the SPX 2347 downtrend low, may have started the third zigzag at today’s SPX 2467 low. The previous zigzags were: [2367] 2414-2394-2468 and [2398] 2508-2473-2520. This third one could be: [2467] 2519-2495-xxxx. Had the first leg up of this potential zigzag exceeded SPX 2520 we would feel better that another one is underway.

A market maker in the making. Bernanke, Powell and Yellen get together on Friday morning for a round table discussion. Will Powell announce a QT freeze? Short term support remains at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 and 2575 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading and Happy New Year!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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396 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Dex T says:

    ttsden

    Regarding your and Torehund conversation I just read this article yesterday

    Norway’s electric cars zip to new record: almost a third of all sales

    “Almost a third of new cars sold in Norway last year were pure electric, a new world record as the country strives to end sales of fossil-fueled vehicles by 2025.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/norways-electric-cars-zip-record-almost-third-sales-131416512–finance.html

    • Dex T says:

      Considering that Torehund is from Norway I’m surprised that he is unaware his own countrymen are getting away from oil. The rest of the world will steadily follow.

      Oil’s bull is long over unless a major Middle Eastern war hits next year. Best they can hope for are relief rallys from now on as it continues to plummet in price.

      Oil will be trading under $20 in the next decade.

  2. $SPX…..2646 seems pretty good target (gap area) with a late run tonight or next week…Tony’s high pivot is 2575…..liked the 3 Fed Judges earlier..one voice lots of experience

  3. mm4398 says:

    Phil and other bond traders, looks like a turning point to me today. Resumption of the bond bear?

  4. Dex T says:

    BREAKING NEWS: Schumer: Trump said he’d keep government closed ‘months, even years.’ Details to come

    Saw this in a new feed. Wonder what it will be like if the government was shut down for a few months?

  5. INFLECTION POINT coming up soon… /ES is coming back down a 50% extension LONG at 2510.25. The 61.8% ext.. LONG is 2503.41. /ES is currently trading at 2528.75 as I write this post.
    BOTTOM LINE…2503.41 bullish above and “bearish” below. Bearish means /ES will trade to a lower target. DH chart
    https://gyazo.com/ccf86bb5ec8c1b97aeb6dcf316210f4b

    • fotis2 says:

      Ok be honest now how much have you made/lost trading this system

      • Was profitable last year and this year so far….thank you very much….or should say thank you DH….LOL

        Have a great weekend all.

        • fotis2 says:

          Went right above your head to be expected well then HNY

          • No, I took it the right way, your post was condescending and arrogant. Why that post?, didn’t add to calling a move in SPX. Perhaps you have no need for my calls, fine but there are others out there that just might have held off taking a long position, until a lower level traded and I (phil,gary. travis et. al.) saved them some money. We are all trying to work together from different disciplines to off free or reduced risk trades fore all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        What I would like to see is equal number of suggestions to take Tony’s course posted on DH and Trader Joe’s sites…..

    • gary61b says:

      ASA, that is an interesting way of coming up with levels… to me he(David) is taking a high off of a micro wave (a) high of A to the top of a possible micro wave high (a) of C. lets see if that works… or just take a mm from 2470.25 to the high 2539.25 seems more logical…

      • Doesn’t always work.
        DH principle is that if 61.8% extension is violated, the MM fails.
        Not always the case.
        Likewise, is a retrace to 50% retrace price required to get to the -23.6% extension?
        I don’t know. This am, it didn’t happen. There was no retrace to the 50% level before the rocket ship.

        Good starting price points to watch.
        I’ve seen Phil’s number targets hit and reverse, so it does work sometimes.
        However, key is to watch how they all play together.

        Let’s see if we get back to /ES 2510 and bounce from there to /ES 2571.
        (Is /ES 2571 a MM of the new fib extensions on this current MM? (i.e., isn’t the Fib extensions supposed to be recalculated after a MM?)

      • Hi gary…to be honest with you, the beauty of following DH during the course of the day is that he is constantly looking at different high/low anchors that the algorithm is trading off of. YOU CAN NOT BE RIGID…YOU NEED TO BE FLEXIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THESE TIMES. If could be using old anchor that /ES had been trading because the algorithm is ignoring a news related ramp or decline.

        T.A. Stock….you are partially correct. If a 61.8% (ext or measured move) long or short breaks, go to the next 61.8% long or short. There could be a series of ext. shorts/longs before you reach the full 505 measured move long/short. When you have this type of movement in the markets the levels you choose are based upon your selection of anchors, if one breaks, go to the next until you reach a 61.8% measures move long/short that is a different story. I know it sounds confusing but that’s why it takes several weeks.months to get to learn how to use the system.

    • phil1247 says:

      phil1247 says:
      January 4, 2019 at 1:23 pm
      nice launch from 23 asa

      now up to 71

  6. wanderer says:

    Nice pop :-). This is what happens when the put/call ratios reach ridiculous levels.I believe that at the end of December 2018, that ratio reached a multi-year high.

  7. Jack Lad says:

    Every dog and its handler knows how to cross the road…
    https://jsecharts.blogspot.com/2019/01/jse-alsi-j203-daily.html

  8. tommyboys says:

    AD bigly strong today at 8-9/1 positive. Yesterday’s strong AD and RUT RS was telling. That Dow 1k+ positive day last week likely marked the low of this correction with today’s powerful AD being the follow through. This combined with highly depressed sentiment suggests at least an IT low has been hit.

  9. Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can’t be done — except by liars.

  10. phil1247 says:

    travis
    just got back
    saw your question

    once you trap the bear
    you dont let him off the hook

    2529 es target hit
    next comes 36 then 50 then 71

  11. Derek P. CT says:

    Hey TC. So my suggestion of 2450 coming back did hold. Any chance you now see this move up as impulsive from the low? I have 3 legs up… now just entering the 3rd… Structure here on this leg will be very telling.

  12. vivelaamo says:

    Happy new year. Is this a b wave of some sort?

    • xEVAx says:

      HNY this is a small abc…. From the top, leading diagonal, abc, ending diagonal, I expect one more down the we start wave 5 up…. I expet impulsive down the very important, impulsive up…. This is not an impulse wave…..

    • captbara says:

      A B that goes very high and turns into an Z or an X. But first it becomes a C.

  13. 2564 by monday. 3 sets of 121 point up moves
    this one from 2543. see ya next week

    • Also like this area of 2530 for a high with a pull back towards 2480 then another 84 points up to 2564. So short from 2526

      • xEVAx says:

        My target has been 2532ish and DOW 23500ish, love to see it puke here but wherever it stops I expect a hard reversal down to retest the low then up in either B or 1 of 5….

        • xEVAx says:

          Sharp up, then choppy wave 5 down, likely smaller expanding diagonal like all the other C/5 waves have been…. OR fast hard down below 2300 and bears win. fast hard up maybe major B or we’re in V and the multi year ED begins….

  14. purplember says:

    after listening to FED today, it felt like a “save your A$$” presser. Powell will be flexible but if market tanks, it’s not the FED’s fault.

    • Dex T says:

      Hate to defend the Fed but they are not responsible for making investment decisions and holding the banking sector afloat.

      markets tank and decline throughout history for a variety of reasons and Wall street has already taken them through a few false flags with their taper tantrums.

      The Fed has to analyze the economic data and set rates accordingly.

    • I don’t know why so many people here believe that the mandate of the FED is to be supportive of stock prices. The repeated comments that I’ve read about “it’s not the FED’s fault” is reflective of this notion.

      Never mind that the FED’s dual-mandate is the rate of inflation and unemployment, per the amendment to the Federal Reserve Act in 1977.

      “to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates”

      Not equity prices.

    • purplember says:

      dex / blue, i disagree with you guys. what the FED is suppose to do you clearly have outlined but there is no doubt that FED and tried to inflate asset prices over the past 20 years.

      • Let me ask you this Purple….

        Do you disagree with the liquidity that the FED injected into the banking system back in 2008, and Bernanke waving his magic “wand” and guaranteeing the CDS trades of AIG?

      • +1000
        Right.
        How can they say that with a straight face when the US govt bails out banks and automotive and the Fed drops rates to 0% for 8 years.
        They’re “not” manipulating markets? Them and the rest of the global central bankers are doing it.
        Please.

        • Dex T says:

          I do agree with your points. The Fed has become much too involved with Wall Street especially after the last recession. However that is not their original mandate and I wish they would get away from that idea.

          My hope is that Powell exercises more independence and simply ignore the markets and follow their models and economic data.

          The fact that they will not be cutting rates is a good sign that there will be more independence and Wall Street will be left on its feet.

      • Blue, I disagreed with it.
        They are making history/bubbles by manipulating interest rates.
        While the reset during the great depression hurt for 25-33% of the people (unemployment rate), look at what the US market has done since that time.
        We just don’t know what type of frankenstein delay the Fed and other central bankers have done with QE. The chickens may still come home to roost even though they were delayed for 10 years.
        Likewise, the impression is now that (certain) banks (and other companies) are too big to fail. Where’s the lesson in that? Is Sears too big to fail? I don’t see the government giving them any charity.
        The void by BK companies that did wrong with will be filled (believe you me) and many lessons will be learned in MBA classrooms. But now, that is not the case, is it?

        Of course, the markets were great for the 1% and those fully invested in their 401ks. However, in the end, when/if the bubble pops, no one wins.

        • It’s not about “certain” banks and companies. The FED comes into play when there are liquidity issues. I don’t think that you fully understand the gravity of what was going on with AIG and all of their counter-parties back in 2008. Moreover, there was no previous “playbook” to deal with what was going on…. aside from opening the discount window and offering massive amounts of liquidity. AIG was a total lynch pin. I don’t think many fully realize the repercussions of allowing it to fail.

          In any event, I often observe an underlying “theme” on stock market blogs that the markets are “rigged” and the Fed helps engineer the “rigging” as part of the PPT.

          Personally, I don’t know how anyone can find that of “value” when it comes to making investment or trading decisions with the goal of making money. It’s one of the reasons why I don’t “subscribe” to such a theme.

          Perhaps my perspective is honed by 95% of my trading/investing having to do with individual companies and their management team’s ability to execute their business plan…. as various “catalysts” come into play. I’ll use T/A for entry and exit points on the medical diagnostic and life science companies that I trade, but the PPT is the last thing that will ever enter my mind.

          🙂

  15. Dex T says:

    So the takeaway from the meeting of Fed chairs is that they will watch and see as the data comes in

    If things improve as expected Powell will continue with the hikes. He made it clear that inflation is definitely present.

    Any rate decreases and QE are ruled out

    • Dex T says:

      Also, all 3 of them seemed to make it clear that the problem with the market fluctuations are entirely due to market participants.

      If something happens then IT’S NOT THE FEDS’ fault

    • ttsden says:

      DEX T In September you made a comment on benefits of electric cars over Gas guzzlers
      About the same time I was locked into a difficult discussion with Torehund over the direction of Crude Oil prices, his view $100 – 200 in coming years, I couldn’t convince him that WTIC would see $ 30-40 before $100 and never $200 ever.
      But your comment lit up an electric bulb in my Oriental brain because it fitted into this Crude Oil price demise. That provoked me to investigate the alternative energy spectrum.
      DexT
      Many thanks,I found the “alternative” in a US factory’s research lab.
      You see , I do not invest in stocks per see ; only in companies that transform our life styles i.e entities that may or may not be listed stocks. e g Nasdaq stocks transformed our life style, they do not appreciate – they make quantum leaps in price, over and over again.
      In Nasdaq you had a choice of say 100 stocks. In the alternative energy space you have
      zilch choices. Only I Company has that pride of place .
      So my sincere thanks again to you and to TC’s collective in his blog space
      Dex T I would welcome you to my inbox. Thank You Sir.

  16. Sethu says:

    Mcg wait don’t short see whether 2542 resisted then do it or in a hurry short with 2542 as sl

    • mcgcapital says:

      Ok thanks.. I’ve taken the FTSE sell instead, not sure it breaks 2520s on SPX but will see

      • Sethu says:

        High 2538.07. I took only one post and gave the levels before the day commenced. some guys take different time frames and different levels and keep on posting . That is keep guessing the market. A successful traders needs to flow the with the market and not try to outsmart it.
        Now , one could have shorted . This is a guess trade and going against the market a CTT. This is a classic example of pre-empting the market.When on Monday, SPX can dip and that case this trade is lucky. Here one is betting on that such a huge rise a dip is natural. If it does not happen on should book loss without blinking.

        Another wait for the market to react on Monday and either buy the dip or short ( when it is clear that the resistance at 2542 failed).
        As per my system, 15 mts and hour have turned into a buy mode ( buy in dips). We need to see whether day turns buy or remains in sell mode on Monday. Depending on SPX behaves around 2542.
        My confidence on my levels is coming out of back testing and not out of arrogance. You guys can recall, I have already proved about my levels here. But market is always supreme and that’s why we have SL or TSL.

  17. lml25 says:

    Is the recession over already?

    • Dex T says:

      U.S. isn’t officially in a recession.

      As far as the bear market definitely not. Just another relief rally that will get sold down the road.

    • US was never even close to recession.
      Housing prices up.
      Employment % up.
      Wages up.
      Retail sales up.
      In 2008, there were clear warning signs of the bubble popping.

      This recent “fear” was all news driven and a resetting of the market charts. Exponential increases long term are unsustainable. Look at a 20yr SPX chart and you will see the price rocket increase rise in the last few years.
      FedEX CEO should be fired. UPS didn’t come out to complain about their business, so FedEX is the only one? If they are losing money, then it’s because of the UK, China and their business model and pricing.
      AMZ sales are booming. I keep seeing independent delivery trucks and USPS in my neighborhood (at least to my house. :D).

      • riderbobo says:

        What about the worst ISM data in 2 years that was releasead yesterday?

        • How does it compare to 2008? (IDK)
          2018 vs 2016 is not evidence that we’re heading into a recession.
          Everything takes a pause. Look at stock charts; they don’t go up or down forever.

        • tommyboys says:

          Still very positive above 50. One month does not a market make.

          • tommyboys says:

            Also gotta expect some normalization. Can’t expect that 60+ level to sustain for very long periods. Still way far from recession.

  18. zvyezda says:

    Expanding sideways triangle anyone?

  19. IBB + 4% ahead of next week’s JPM Healthcare Conference in San Francisco.

    Diagnostics stocks (GNMK, CERS, IDXX, ILMN, HSKA, EXAS, and QDEL) are screaming higher.

    🙂

  20. Dex T says:

    Bernanke commenting on the “taper tantrum”- issue was problem in communication.

    Powell- “Taper tantrum” left “scars” on people working at the Fed. Must have been a pain listening to all that whining.

  21. Hi
    Tony,please
    the wave from 2016 bottom was a “c” of a flat or a first impulse ?
    there is still doubt if the wave from 2008 bottom was corrective or impulsive?
    https://invst.ly/9oz1w
    thanks
    Ciao

  22. Sethu says:

    2520 done mcg how r yu doing I have said what is the trade before the market openec

  23. Sethu says:

    2520 done mcg how r yu doing

    • mcgcapital says:

      All good.. bullish break of 6760 on FTSE had me long.. sell into strength still, the fundamentals and larger trend are obvious. 300+ point rallies have been awesome selling ops on FTSE. SPX obviously sell 2520 again.. didn’t foresee that last night but looked possible once futures had ramped

  24. Dex T says:

    Powell said he wants to engage with the “public” and not just Wall Street about interest rates and Fed policy.

    I wonder if he will hold open town hall meetings? Street rallys?

  25. phil1247 says:

    travis

    did you catch the entry at 89 ?
    good luck
    target 2571
    dont wait for the last 75 cents buddy 🙂
    see ya next week !

  26. Menachem Uzan says:

    Did anyone see my post from yesterday?

    Menachem Uzan on January 3, 2019 at 6:31 pm
    Hi Stockman,
    Good comments. Just an observation, I am currently tracking a very bullish short term count. The pattern ends with a very sharp upward thrust back above SPX 2520 from where we are now.

    • We’re in face ripper territory.
      Can the market sustain a >3%+ ramp for the rest of the day?
      I say it cools to 2490 and then resumes maybe above 2527? (61% extension long area).
      It’s hit 23% and 38% and 50% extension long areas within 1hr of the open!!!

      • CLARIFICATION: extension longs on /ES from yesterday’s high to overnight lows. 100% retrace + the extension prices.

        At ~10:59a, 1-hr /ES is overbought via RSI. Pullback should be coming.

  27. Added to my positions in EXAS and SRPT this morning. Nibbled on some Oils.

  28. gary61b says:

    ES looks very impulsive off the low 2438.5. I am not a EW or OEW but I think I see 5 waves off the low to 2486.75 then a very weak pb, now in 3rd leg with possibly 2521 as next pivot?

  29. Dex T says:

    Watching Powell now at the economic conference and seems fairly optimistic on the U.S. economy. Some negative points to watch but overall everything is good.

    • Dex T says:

      Says financial markets signaling concern so will be prepared to adjust

      So basically nothing new as expected. They will watch the data and do what is necessary

      But doesn’t think he made any mistake with the rate increases

      • He said that the financial markets were pricing in weakness and were ahead of themselves. It’s a “nice” way of saying that they’re wrong.

        • Dex T says:

          Your interpretation. What he means is that it’s Wall Street insecurity once again. He made it clear that he thinks things are mainly good and the economy can withstand further increases.

          If the market continues to rally they will definitely tighten later this year.

          • Powell clearly believes that the economy is “strong””. He’s made that point on several occasions, including last month during the rate hike. Moreover, its also pretty clear that Powell isn’t focusing or obsessing over the stock market.

            He simply “acknowledges” that the stock market is pricing in economic weakness. But that doesn’t mean that he cares about the stock market.

            He’s watching the rate of inflation. That’s his big priority.

  30. Free money Friday. As I posted last night looking for 2560.

  31. Time for Yellen, Bernanke, and Powell.
    At the American Economic Association Meeting.

  32. tommyboys says:

    Good chance we have a higher low -W – bottom in the works. Sorry no tankage today Michael. When everything looks set to go one way – well…

    • fenster6 says:

      Show us the comment where Michael said the market would tank today?
      fake

      • kjb0 says:

        aahmichael says:
        January 3, 2019 at 6:30 pm
        A/D was strong all day. 600 net decliners on a day that the Dow was down 660 is almost unheard of, but that’s the only positive for the bulls. Everything else screams that it’s going to tank tomorrow…big time.

  33. H D says:

    news driven market. AAPL yesterday, jobs today.

    • Twosidedtape1 says:

      Possibly. I’m looking for an abc up and then that’s the end of it. Unless the gap fills pretty soon. Not looking for a significantly higher high than 252 area on SPY at this point.

      • fotis2 says:

        2620s is Daily 3BR target lines up with 50ma also HWB thereafter a good short could materialize nothing writen on stone of course as in the Boy scouts so the Market ”Be Prepared”

    • I got slammed in the face yesterday (I thought 2620 to 2650 was workable…dead wrong)..however, I agree with you that some attempt to fill that upside gap is possible. My confidence is so-so at this point and objectives of 1850 by Fiona and AAH might just be the next target should the prior spike lows get taken out…No Man’s Land for me….flat

  34. Twosidedtape1 says:

    Either minor b of Int. b ended yesterday or this is a great morning headfake to short. Time will tell.

  35. 310,000 jobs, .11 increase in earnings = .4% mom= 4.8% a year going forward. Market will not like this number as it gives the FOMC more “room” to raise rates in March/June. As always, we’ll see.

    • Gee perhaps the FED was right to raise rates here? Market clearly heating up despite the trade war and profit shortfalls. this is the transition from good economic news for the consumer but not for profits. This is a typical problem in the bull cycle. It gets adjusted thru this transition period. 6 to 7 month correction seems likely resulting in a March or April bottom. We tend to exaggerate the problem like in 2016 when many were convinced the sky was falling. The bear market will coincide with the political turmoil and reverse once that ends.

    • kingfrogcash says:

      $FDX complained that Europe was slow, Domestic was great. $AAPL complained that China was slow, Domestic was great. The problem is, that they are oversized in the index’s. Or Domestic has to overcome the world.

  36. phil1247 says:

    travis

    we done good!
    took off shorts after hours at 47
    now putting a little back on at 80
    congrats buddy!

  37. gary61b says:

    ES, did fall into the lower long setup area to 2438.5 and has climbed so far to 2486.75 all in one leg so far. bigger chart shows 2491 as the breach level for shorts. on the 15 m chart a possible setup is in progress with T1 at 2491.25 and breach line for this setup is at 2474.75. A conservative setup for a long would be after the 2491 is taken out, because price still could continue down lower. F
    or this am looking for 2491 to be breached for longs and above 2457 to keep this leg active as a long. https://gyazo.com/b9fd03885910a7d43ce095897739f45a https://gyazo.com/01061b2907f0385537cdbfe3381a3b95

    • gary61b says:

      7:30 cst this morning numbers looks to have stopped the drop to the HWB and the buying kicked in, big front run of the 38……

  38. M1 says:

    Tony. Should the market rally today I guess we will see positive divergences everywhere like in january 2008
    It looks like we have a bottom in place ?

  39. Good morning all
    In the overnight session, there was a rather large but expected counter trend rally in /ES….which hit a brick wall at the first of 2, 50% short set ups at 2485. /ES could rally up to the corresponding 61.8% short @ 2494 or even break it and continue to rally (unemployment report or the at the 3 FOMC chairs conference this morning) to the second of two 50% short at 2501.

    The higher probability is that /ES trades to this or the next 50% short and /ES begins to move lower. Trade the tape you get, not what you hope for. GL.

  40. mcgcapital says:

    From @lisaabramowicz:

    Just the interest payments on China’s non-financial debt totalled about $3 trillion last year, equal to roughly 22% of the nation’s GDP, according to @vshih2. At this point, China is borrowing more money just to cover the interest payments on its existing debt.

    And this is worth a read – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/07/a-chinese-recession-is-inevitable-dont-think-it-wont-affect-you

    Selected paragraphs below:

    “Former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke famously characterised this much-studied phenomenon as a key component of the “global savings glut”. Thus, instead of leading to lower global real interest rates, a Chinese slowdown that spreads across Asia could paradoxically lead to higher interest rates elsewhere – especially if a second Asian financial crisis leads to a sharp draw-down of central bank reserves. Thus, for global capital markets, a Chinese recession could easily prove to be a double whammy.”

    “When the advanced countries had their financial crisis a decade ago, emerging markets recovered relatively quickly, thanks to low debt levels and strong commodity prices. Today, however, debt levels have risen significantly, and a sharp rise in global real interest rates would almost certainly extend today’s brewing crises beyond the handful of countries (including Argentina and Turkey) that have already been hit.”

    “Nor is the US immune. For the moment, the US can finance its trillion-dollar deficits at relatively low cost. But the relatively short-term duration of its borrowing – under four years if one integrates the Treasury and Federal Reserve balance sheets – means that a rise in interest rates would soon cause debt service to crowd out needed expenditures in other areas.”

  41. quickrick38 says:

    On this viewable page, thus far I count 4 out of 30 posts (that take up quite a bit of space) are relevant. The rest are politics and bullshit. Where’s Lunker?

  42. Sethu says:

    Low 2443.96
    15mts R 2464 one hour R 2471
    Low 2346.58
    Day R 2542
    Please note ES is trading above 2471 now. Above 2464-2471 go long for a retest 2520 and then 2542.

  43. ttsden says:

    phil1247
    Where are yu Plse tell DEX T for me Thanks

  44. M Wags says:

    If that ISM number today doesnt make the FED pause, I dont know what will.

    • Thanks Fiona / Kimble….. Rarely do I have the confidence that I have in this multi-year Gold chart by Kimble. It’s almost too pretty. But it will take time. So patience is the missing ingredient. So fwiw, I have GDXJ calls out to Jan 2021. Thx Tony.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Do listen to Dvorak’s 5th Symphony.
      It is not widely recognized, but the Scottish Symphony give a fine interpretation, noting light and shade with pastoral nuances.
      Dvorak dedicated this symphony to Hans von Bulow, the virtuoso pianist and conductor who championed Dvorak’s work.
      I found it interesting von Bulow conducted with no score in front of him….x

      • ttsden says:

        FM I am an old hand at ts game . but also a little blunt so please indulge me.
        Thanks; CK is a good friend, love him to bits, so also Corporate buddy Nick ; we exchange posts & private comments also Ari Gilbert – another TA maestro. All have our moments of difference in opinion. Bur respect seals our friendship.
        Quick take : CK’s charting is very provocative = makes you cogitate deep and long. Am like Ari is ike me, we take a stand and stand by it thru thick and thin – because of our work is independent of outside opinion = less Noise to distract your brain.
        Peter DeSario ex- Chief Futures Analyst EWI – another TA maestro,Tony’s unique blend of Advanced Charting is out of his World. They all hold TC in the Highest Regards and Esteem I concur, told them TC is a Saint– Bless me TC for I have flaws. Believe me I review all 160 of his bible charts every day- without fail. I have preached his bilbe to all
        of my friends clients students , over the past 18 years coached, about 3600 – for Free.
        My way of paying back and paying forward. My home baked system id based on the premise of Nature’s Laws and that all market instruments are living breathing man made creatures. They are as human as each of us.They walk run jump and sometimes fall but this is to re-juvenate, re-energise re-charge for the next wave / waves same for bullish or bearish trends. At the !st lesson, new attendees who do not accept this concept are asked politely to leave .Come back next time after some soul searching.
        Next thing they have to read up begins with KONDRATIEF , DEWEY’S Cycles etc . nothing at all about Stock markets Gold or Forex. and it goes on from Edwards & Magees
        70 year old tome. My first bible then to other Technical Indicators . Finally comes EWT a must. no mastery of EWT means they have to leave a 2nd time, then John Bollinger’s Bands. Without this foundation they are Banned from going into the water.
        In 1978 I was the first sub to Bob Prechter – from the mysterious East, said to Bob read your book how do I upgrade my limited skills in applying EWT- live. Bob said sub my service. I owned a Brokerage in SGP then and had numerous clients – a real hassle.
        Spoke to them about EWT Bob’s written word that were like pearls of wisdom. Soon 56 subs over time landed in Gainsville. EWT’s surprise ? Where is this hill-billy hick town
        Singapore? In 2000 I became a sponsored Seminar speaker around SEAsia, Asked
        Bob Could you give me a testimonial He said Show me the money i.e my presentation works .It was vetted by Peter DeSario. Bob then sent me a note “Tony Keep up the Good Work” it appeared on my Posters with his grinning face. PDS said “It is a formidable task you are doing” Printed that on the poster as well. Converted my papers into a 21 slide PPT, then burned lots of CD roms which I use to this day – with no changes required.
        Come 2011 bottom I had the Hallelujah moment – Ms DJI / S&P are going into the 5th Biggie.
        TC had the same Eureka moment.I had! Been following his blog long enough you see
        and could discern his guarded words. TC is a learned and the most highly respected Doyen,as far as I am concerned. TC’s blog to my students were, and still is the Required Daily Read- like Christian Daily Bread, until recently owing to his medical condition.
        You and I know a Guardian Angel never gives up-neither TC, That is the epitome of TC and shows the stature of the man. Only one in the world and all for Free. I learnt from my Mentor. My wife spied me crying at my workstation one day months ago. I told her and she said “Lets pray together ”
        FM your classical bent must mean lot to you. Please give up that rear view mirror be it yours or somebody’s. You will save yourself an injury. Why thank TC, when you are not listening to him closely. Junk the unnecessary shit that can but lead you astray.
        Had little choice because there is ds much muck floating around being touted as the gospel. Leave these false prophets some preach Fear to sell subs. Take care.
        Thank you for listening.
        Vaya Con Dios ( not bye bye )

        Tony Teo
        ttsden
        E&OE

  45. Happy new year all. I’m looking for 2560 as the next target. Break below today’s 2543 would invalidate. From there a 300 point drop to 2240 area. Good luck all

  46. Lets get the Norwegian special rakes to prevent California forest fores. Lets pretend our president isn’t off the deep end and talking the most insane incoherent dribble. Lets focus on AAPL that had their quarter implode on China shortfalls. But any idiot knows EW doesn’t give a shit what a president does. Promoting self destructive policy is NOT going to affect the all knowing EW charts.

    Instead the gurus of charting get creative and assign thousands of different and arcane patterns in order to justify the unjustifiable moves. ZIG instead of ZAG? I am fascinated on how delusional and rigid a mindset becomes in glaring contradiction to the truth.

    Mueller is (expected) to report in February. If that becomes reality expect the next 4 weeks after this event to crater the maker from whatever position they were in. I sure hope it is during an upward bias. I was ridiculed on trade wars affecting profits. An imploding president knowing his days are numbers has nothing to lose especially since his amoral character only deals in what will ease his own pain. He loves to ridicule and demean his loyalists testing their ability to recognize being tormented.

    Hello to the numbed cortex. You have been played as a patsy and yet today 2 years after this insane ride your ability to rationalize and come to a common sense conclusion is completely destroyed. The stock market, similarly numbed and duped will realize we will be falling into uncharted territory as the constitutions crisis hits its apex with the Mueller report. A report so damning by defining treason in a modern light but few will be able to grasp its meaning.

    We have made history that should last for thousands of years. The most insane corrupt government fully endorsed by the Republican voters.There is no amount of treasonous activity, inhuman treatment, or connect the dots logic that will sway the unswayed. They have been corrupted by their own need to see hate and anger dispelled even if it is in an unholy fashion.

    In other words folks count on the usual 6 to 7 month bear romp. Count on the worse of the moves to happen after Mueller releases his report. Making money on your ability to understand human nature is the key to maximum profits. forget EW, Fibonacci or any automaton approach. This required pure understanding of human nature of how imperfect it is.

    BTW, has anyone recorded my infamous rants on trump two years ago? They wuld seem tame today.

    • aahmichael says:

      A 9 year bull market will not be corrected in just 6 to 7 months.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Think this looks more like the 2000 top than 2008.. could be a 3 year bear to reset everything. It depends what they do stimulus wise.. I think if we freefall through the 20% down mark there’s going to be immense pressure put on central banks to ‘do something’. It honestly will be better in the long run if they stop with the interference but it’s going to be ugly

      • It has in the past and your assumption that this is the final move up prevents your cortex from accepting that possibility. What if we have another 18 months after trump is impeached? Put it this way, what will the street feel after Trump is removed? Trump has done everything possible to speed up the demise of this bull but human hope and optimism always latches onto any sign of promise.

        Hey i have no definitive answers but my long term assumptions have played out. Trump will not cause the imploding of world markets but rather his removal will give hope for a reversal. that hope is strong enough to last over one year. Human behavior and its irrational but clinically understood response is what i count on to make lots of money.

        I rely on extremes for they display (expose) the truest nature of human behavior. October was the start of my big gains. If I am right there should be a strong rebound between now and the impeachment process. No clue on timing this move but I am patiently waiting for such an event. Post impeachment will result in the strongest and steepest move up yet. That is human nature. We love to find excuses to be overly optimistic.

        • tommyboys says:

          Impeachment requires a crime like one of Hilary or Comey’s and requires 2/3 vote in Senate. If you think either are possible you suffer even more severe TDS than presented.

      • xEVAx says:

        A 90ish year Bull market may NEVER be “corrected” .) Happy New Year=)

    • mcgcapital says:

      I think you’re missing the point on Elliott Wave.. it’s irrefutable it’s wrong as often as it is right, and it’s subject to bias whereby the wave labeller tends to already have a perception on where it’s going and they fit the waves accordingly.

      But the better traders use it as an IF – THEN process to tilt probability in their favour. You often see TC and others write in that style.. but you have to read between the lines to see what the limited risk set ups are as he doesn’t post them directly

      • Astute observation mcg.
        Problem with Elliott Wave is that it is Theory not Law.
        And most of the people here have no idea of the distinction.
        Any forecasts have to be corroborated with other unrelated TA tools.
        But it is pretty cool when used appropriately.

      • stcoleridge says:

        Exactly mcg. It’s all about set ups. I still remember the early Oct 2011 low as a classic example. Once the initial rally off the low reversed in a lesser degree second wave to within about 1-1.5% of that low you had a clear stop loss level and if the count (which to be fair Tony nailed) was correct you were getting long at a significant low. As you constantly remind the blog, it’s all about knowing when your trade is wrong and acting accordingly.

    • kingfrogcash says:

      Human nature should have shown in your gibberish after a 600 point drop as joyful at your bounty profits. Instead we have the same old dark rant. Human nature indicates you lost money Thursday.

  47. tommyboys says:

    RUT showed big RS all day today. This is bullish as well but never anything for sure.

    • fenster6 says:

      Hey Mr ‘tazpayer” haven’t you been mocking Aah and McG for their bearish calls the last couple of months?…now you are not so sure….

      • mcgcapital says:

        I wouldn’t say he’s mocked anyone to be fair.. but I don’t think Tommy believes there will be another sizeable bear market again for a good few decades. If this decline is limited to 20% then I’m sure he’ll be fine. If it’s not then it’s going to be painful for him as he never sees the bear side. But he’s an investor rather than a trader, so it’s a different ball game…

        • tommyboys says:

          Thanks for postulating on what I think.

          • fenster6 says:

            We know what you think Tommy.. You have posted it many times:

            1) trump can do no evil
            2) Since he is God incarnate the market MUST rally for him
            3) Anyone who does not agree with 1 and 2 is a fool, pathetic, should be in jail, is a loser etc etc…

          • The screws in your head, maybe. The Socialist kooks are on the verge of starting something that they will wish a million times, that they could take back. Reminds me in history, of 1938, or 1914. Careful what you ask for. Careful what you run your mouth about. History always rears it’s ugly head to the people who know nothing of it. It never turns out like you think it will. It amazes me how these crazies have a perfect example right in their faces with Venezuela being the colossal failure it is, yet they want more. Yet they continue to jam their big mouths in high gear. Mark my word: If the Dims continue to play this game and try to impeach the President, there will be a price to pay.

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