Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +157

For the first three days of the week Asian markets have gained 0.3%, and European markets have gained 1.7%. The US started the week at SPX 2633. On Monday it opened slightly lower, then pulled back to its lowest level of this Int. A correction: SPX 2583. After hitting that level the market quickly rebounded to end positive on the day. On Tuesday a gap up opening drove the SPX to 2674 in the opening hour, but then it sold off to SPX 2621. Another rally to SPX 2660 was also sold off to SPX 2637. Wednesday another gap up opening, which carried the SPX to 2685. Then of course another pullback, this time to SPX 2651 where it closed.

From Monday’s potentially Int. A SPX 2583 low, the market has tried to establish a new uptrend. Thus far the rally has been quite choppy: 2674-2621-2660-2637-2685-2650. Certainly not impulsive. But a B wave rally does not have to been impulsive. These last couple of days the NDX/NAZ has been leading and the DOW has been lagging. If the growth sector wins out in the end, an Int. wave B could be well underway. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum is working off a negative divergence at today’s highs and has dropped to below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable


About tony caldaro

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291 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. naz43 says:

    CIAO Tony, facendo il conteggio sull’indice italiano che è più chiaro … mi è venuto questo conteggio su SPX

  2. fionamargaret says:

    Shut your eyes and listen to the intonation of this Romanian pianist…quite lovely and different.
    I would like to hear her play with a slightly more sophisticated orchestra…..I know…

  3. Hi
    H&S target ~9050,TL/SMA200 test
    if doesn’t hold,next will be 2016 bottom

  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looks like a complete 5 or 7 wave series into key support. (Diagonal)
    DT confirmed today, not Mon/Tues, like I thought. But it was still a good trade. 😉
    SPX ~

  5. torehund says:

    The freight rates of oil tells another story than the price decline of oil itself. Ghost tells it is headed to 40 a barrel, but if not there is a slim chance it could turn up from the if 1-2 and latest 1-2 is in any way completed. Whats you take on oil ?

  6. Good evening all. What a day. To save time, I put all my notes on this chart. /ES is currently trading in no mans land…in between a 50% micro short and 2 profit targets of this current measured move short. IMHO, the higher probability, is /ES will have a counter trend rally, which will possibly lead /ES down to test the 2 profit targets outlined on the chart.

    Naturally, I can’t r/o a quick test of the profit targets on the Sunday night open….talking probabilities here, when the /ES is trading in no mans land. The entry long or short would be at a profit target (long) or the 50%/61.8% shorts (short). Full disclosure, DH chart and DH/my analysis.

    Have a good weekend!

  7. allen kimble says:

    One of histories most violent bear traps is now set. Buy and average in on Monday like i will be doing. The Fed to the rescue next week.

    Don’t fight it. Join me in or be a bag holder like darkness and phantom phil.

  8. To Darkness aahm and fxa…POST 3 OF 3…where did /ES and SPX close today?…BTW note time stamp of the post!

    asaraniti (@asaraniti) says:
    December 14, 2018 at 10:05 am
    series of high anchors are being used to see which one the algorithm are trading off of. ….series of micro long and short setups…computers to fast for me. Current set up is 2641.20 bullish above to fill the gap and to the 50% measured move short at 2651.88. Bearish below 2641,20 targets are 2617, 2608 and 2600.


    • fxaprendiz says:

      LOL asa what are you trying to prove my friend? Did I ever say anything about your trading skills or style?
      If what you are trying to do if to get a free pass on posting non-stop because you rock at trading, take it to Lunker, he’s the one trying to police the posts not me. I just want us ALL to be treated the same. You know that, you just can’t admit it my friend. Btw have a merry Xmas! =)

    • hi fxa…LOL…what I was hoping one of you 3 amigos would say is, “a broken clock is right 2X a day!” BTW, I enjoy your posts and charts, have a great weekend.

  9. elmer510 says:

    What is this? Some kind of Wave A extension? I don’t see many traces of a B-wave when it’s back below 2600 again.

  10. lml25 says:

    The pattern down to a little above 2400 still the most likely.Breaking 2620 a second time and now 2600 adds to the probability.We DID have another fakeout rally this week–there may be more.But eventually the weight of the pattern-sans intervention-leads 200 handles lower.Right now,Al Brooks not looking all that smart.His other option was a test of the Feb low.He also said,”It’s important that SPX finishes above the 2017 close–or it means a bearish 2019″,so he’s assuming a rally attempt to avert a bearish chart pattern.With Trump legal problems seemingly exploding,a bearish 2019 may well be in the cards.GL all.

    • tommyboys says:

      Just because MSM pounding “legal” and “Trump” in the same sentence means nothing. Trying to pin $280k hush pmt on him as grounds for impeachment is laughable. Stretching it to a campaign issue is silly to begin with, but even if they wanna try Obummer had an actual $2M campaign finance violation and got a $350k slap – whoopie! No collusion after $35M “investigation” based on a false premise (lie) so now they gotta look for crumbs. How much productivity wasted? They do not like outsiders screwing with the swamp for sure.

      • lml25 says:

        Agree TB,but as they say,a prosecutor can get a grand jury indictment on a ham sandwich.Mueller has it in for Trump–so does the NY state prosecutor bunch.Marco Rubio didn’t look like a great supporter of Trump last weekend.It wouldn’t take much backroom dealing to get him ousted.I don’t think you can impeach a president for what he did BEFORE he was president–but the Dems(and some Rinos) are going to try.

        • valunvstr says:

          Never get over 60 votes in the senate to remove him. Career suicide for way too many. He has a very loyal base and over 90% approval with republicans. Politicians care about their jobs and that’t it. To many would lose theirs if they voted to remove him. Never going to happen.

      • Not to worry about any serious impeachment buzz by The DEMs tommyboys.
        After the jujitsu that Trump put on Schumer and Pelosi a few days ago, the DEMs will likely

        fall back on defense for several months.

        It’s one thing to throw out the invective “the man’s a moron”.
        But it’s another thing to acknowledge he’s a master of stagecraft, with the cameras rolling. He had a 12 year run as top reality show, ( NBC), and all the other stuff that had huge (blue collar) ratings. And he beat Hillary.
        If the DEMs think they have an equal match, they are sorely mistaken.

        • tommyboys says:

          Never get votes needed in Senate no matter what anyway. Strictly jawboning by the desperate & bitter left.

        • torehund says:

          Think Trump has the martial arts approach like Putin, Get the enemy to overexpose their claims then they fall by their own inadequacies. Recent example is the Stormy/lawyer show gone terribly wrong😊

        • TF,

          Very good point. The Three Stooges were masters of stagecraft from 1922 to 1970.
          He could be Shemp’s twin, or just a 4th or 5th. You have to hand it to them …. they were good.

          Doubt Mueller or any law could get any of them.


        • There is a 29 million dollar Congressional slush fund that pays off Congressional employees when Congressmen an Senators do something inappropriate at the workplace. If there is talk of impeachment in 2019, Trump tells Pelosi and Schumer he will initiate a scorch earth policy. This item is high on the list I am sure….it really depends on the number of Dems/Reps and who they are. Trump also has access to our intelligence agencies…what’s good for the goose in good for the gander…just saying.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        personally I think Cohen’s lawyer stinks if his lawyer cant argue against the payment being a campaign violation. He’s married and he didn’t want his wife to know – there is your reason right there aside from the fact that Trump has done and said a million things openly that are equivalent to having an affair with a porn star. How can you possibly argue that he deliberately tried to alter the race by making a payment to a porn star when nothing he did or said made any difference to begin with? If they paid her with ACTUAL campaign money then yeah but this is so bogus and the only people who think he really violated a law are ones who cant stand him and are clouded from their trump hate.

      • Valerie wapiti says:

        It’s all one stinking swamp regardless of which side of the aisle they inhabit. It will be jawboning by the Dems and RINOs to pursue impeachment. All Trump has to do is hint of the dirty laundry he can and will expose if impeachment is pursued…

  11. gary61b says:

    ESZ8 looking at 2593.5 as a possible support, worth a bounce.

  12. Dec 3rd sold longs from 2691 to 2786
    warned here about the future path

    Darkness (@SirDarkness) says:
    December 3, 2018 at 1:39 pm
    out from 2691
    by 3/12/19


    when spx blows thru 2580 CTA’s ( HAVE TO unload )and get a 3.5 —> 8 % very quick
    the yellow box ( u want to buy it / sell it back into 200 dma ), Allen you too ) GOOD LUCK off to XMAS

  13. Billy says:

    Looking for it to go back upstairs towards 2617-19 following an irregular B wave to the LOD. If it gets there should be a nice short to fresh lows.

  14. Page says:

    Selling will accelerate in the last hour of trading. Monday will be a buying opportunity.

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    For the market to be down almost 50 handles this is one of the least volatile days I have seen in a long time.

  16. stockop says:

    trading very similarly to last friday. slow grind down all day with rallies mixed in that make it seem ready to soar at any moment. market has recently liked to repeat the same thing atleast twice. meaning the flush low if we continue at this rate is likely monday? would make this so much easier if we could get some legitimate capitulation like February.

  17. And then there’s the problem with the giant topping patterns all over the place.

    Some people here actually take a dim view of Edwards and Magee stuff like this.
    Whatever …

  18. Mark Smith says:

    Clearly, the gaps-up yesterday have been filled, and in fact, with today’s down, we have island reversals. The bullishness of yesterday was punished, and the bear trap was painful for the bulls. I’m keeping powder dry because again, last week’s lows caused ROC charts to print new lows for the year, and the pennant on the ROC chart was successfully back-tested with Monday’s rally, and the resulting decline is what would be expected. Look out below. When I drop some what-if numbers into my ROC indicator, a swift 12% down from here would hit the target, and I’d go full “in”. If we dribble / chop for months, then the decline would need not be this great. (Always interested in seeing how my tools meld with OEW.)

  19. wildmarkets says:

    Fridays are more of down days.

  20. Gentle on my Mind
    by John Hartford 1937 – 2001
    (Song was written by Mr. Harford in 15 minutes, after watching Dr. Zhivago)

    Okay I’m not done yet. I’ll continue after work.
    It’s knowing that your door is always open
    And that you path is free to walk
    That makes me tend leave my sleeping bag rolled up
    And stashed behind yer couch
    And it’s knowing I’m not shackled by forgotten words and bonds
    And the ink stains dried upon some line
    That keeps you in back roads by the rivers of my memory
    Keeps you ever gentle on my mind
    Not clinging to the rocks and ivy planted on their columns
    Now that binds me
    Or something that something that somebody said
    Because they thought we fit together walking
    It’s just knowing that the world will not be cursing or forgiving
    When I walk along some railroad tracks and find
    That you’re waving from the back roads by the rivers of my memory
    For hours…

  21. fxaprendiz says:

    This seems to be a very controlled retest of the lows, and unless there’s a real sell-off in the next 2 hours, it’s safe to say Monday’s 2583 low will hold as the bottom of this first leg of the correction.
    The bears have given their best, knocking down the bulls attempts at a sustained rally again and again, but despite all their efforts the 2600-2800 trading range remains.
    If this was indeed a corrective wave 2 we should have broken support already this week but alas it didn’t happen. I have said it countless times but it’s worth repeating, this is actually a wave 4 from 2942, and I also said at the start it would be of the complex wxy variety, taking what it seems forever to unfold. What I didn’t even imagine is that it would be so convoluted as to have a smaller wxy within W!!

    If we are done testing the downside, then we are already within wave X up since Monday.
    Time-wise, there’s plenty of time for it to unfold since the weekly cycle was reset, so expect 4-8 weeks of tortuous sideways to up swings now.
    Targets? wave X can be as short as 0.382 of W but for now I’m still considering the 2870-2900 region, will try to pinpoint better as more waves are added. For now it’s 60% chance of 2870-80 happening, and 40% chance of 2900-10 being reached.

    Still long SPX from 2,586 with 2,590 SL.
    No matter how confident I may be in the count, always be prepared for the worst.

    • Bill Radel says:

      Great chart! Thank you. What software or website do you use to create a chart like this?

      I am looking for options to create Elliott Wave charts.


      • fxaprendiz says:

        Thanks Bill.
        Unfortunately can’t help you there. I don’t use a website, and this is a charting software that comes with my trading station, supplied by one of my brokers. And it’s actually a very simple platform, I draw all the lines by hand and make all the calculations about the waves, there’s nothing automated to it.
        Perhaps someone else in here can chime in and recommend you a website you can use for free. Good luck!

    • I’m with FXA. That is what I think will happen. It may not get to 2900 but it will sure as heck make a lunker-style try. 🙂

  22. schizo1688 says:

    Hi Phil, below 12 .. what the next target ? Thanks

  23. Page says:

    Not a buy the dip day, wait till Monday for flush.

  24. Raj Virdee says:

    +d on the charts.

  25. allen kimble says:

    Are you buying here folks? You should be.

  26. purplember says:

    i don’t care if someone posts 3x or 7x as long as it’s market useful.

    As the late George Bush said “a Kinder, Gentler Blog” is the goal.

  27. series of high anchors are being used to see which one the algorithm are trading off of. ….series of micro long and short setups…computers to fast for me. Current set up is 2641.20 bullish above to fill the gap and to the 50% measured move short at 2651.88. Bearish below 2641,20 targets are 2617, 2608 and 2600.

    • ninjashade314 says:

      Appreciate your posts asa! 2600 on deck in the next minutes and thanks to your morning post I earned 30pts today!

  28. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Here is how I see the state of “posts”

    Many of you are acting like children for God’s sake. It has reached new lows on here. Grow up. If you don’t value what someone has to say then keep it to yourself. If you disagree and you think your differing point of view can add value on here then share respectfully. Who cares who the best trader on here is or who the worst trader on here is? The egos and the childishness is astounding. You want a trophy for best trader on Tony’s blog? Will that feed your family or buy you a new home? I’m tired of the silly posts. Just share your insights, be respectful, and keep the posts to a minimum. That must be easier than trading the market but I am beginning to wonder. lastly I don’t need to call anyone out but I could care less about your favorite concerto of the day. Is this a musicians blog or a trading blog??

    • .. lastly I don’t need to call anyone out but I could care less about your favorite concerto of the day

      That comment is not necessary.
      Perhaps you do not understand that some here use such links (content) to stimulate original, unbiased thought. If those links do nothing for you, can you please just bypass them??

      There have been many good and accurate posts here which can help guide anyone successfully through a downturn like this. Maybe you need to search for them with an unbiased mind.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I didn’t call anyone out “specifically” but yeah anyone can connect the dots. That being said how does a daily song of the day post have anything to do with trading? Moreover, I didn’t bash the person(s) I simply said I didn’t care for it. Now if I said that person is a ^*&^%%(*&% or a *^)^(%&*&(*&(& then that would be a different story. Should I start posting Led Zeppelin videos and then maybe some other person can post Talking Head videos and hey why not maybe someone else can post the winners of America’s Got Talent? Would someone on here be annoyed if I started posting Brittnay Spears videos every day? I am sure they would be. Just because most of them are of the classical nature it makes it ok because its dignified?

        • Everybody is different, but for me the most useful thing for trading/investing is having a quiet mind.
          Music (not just good or great music), but music that is humbling works well for stopping the mind. That’s why Fiona posts so much of what she does, esp the “Master”, LV Beethoven.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Music is what draws us closer.
          The majority of people who have contacted me regarding the site listened to the music, and presumably softened them enough to feel I was approachable.
          The 2 videos I posted yesterday evening were sent by such. (I received about 25 videos and questions regarding the site this week alone).
          Marketing is a big part of almost everything in life…even if it is just to present oneself.
          I have brought numerous firms from near bankruptcy to International status and yes, I write the music too.

          And do note I post in the evenings, so you will not be distracted from all the self-congratulatory and policing posts……

          • Valerie wapiti says:

            …presumably softened them enough to feel I was approachable…

            OMG. (: Are thy peut-etre une goddess del market? I quiver in my boots.

            • Valerie wapiti says:

              oops. I’m laughing Fiona. Did not mean to sound so rude.

            • fionamargaret says:

              Valerie, mostly those interested were nervous with something they didn’t understand, and also with language. I have no skills in waves (remember I said I was the only person Tony would pay not to take the course). Music greatly helps relax someone enough to contact a girl about a tune or music they remember from childhood, and then the conversation goes from there….
              I am really good with progressions tho’…..

              Started finishing notes off with “x” just after a colleague jumped in front of a train, and was bound and determined to let folks know in advance that I cared. (Also I did not know where to get the smiley faces….duh!)

  29. Lee x says:

    There’s also a 3 post limit on discussing the 3 post limit.

  30. allen kimble says:

    It’s now morning and it’s an exceptional opportunity to buy before lift off next week. If you aren’t playing futures buy at the open today with a stop @ 2575. This is what I’m doing today in real time and not after the fact like phantom Phil. You will see that I will be 100% correct next week.

    Follow me, I am the way, truth and the light.

  31. alexhartley1 says:

    I am still looking for a cycle move up into 18/12. However I wouldn’t like to see it below 2619 and definitely not 2603 today. If they hold then I still think a chance at 2694-2720 area into Tuesday next week.

    • alexhartley1 says:

      The move down today would finish off a ‘b’ wave down and then the start of a ‘c’ wave up to the target area stated above into Tuesday next week.

      I am slightly concerned the USD is strengthening and want to see if the Euro will bounce if/when my proposed ‘c’ wave up starts today. However I think the Euro is generally toast and will get hit hard in January 2019.

  32. schizo1688 says:

    Good morning phil and everyone, I went full-tard short before closing yesterday, now booking 70%Profit .. which level are support and resistant Phil, and at what level is straight down it goes …thanks Phil …

    • phil1247 says:

      hi schizo
      i am using the march contract esh19 not es continuous
      straight down below 32 with target of 12
      but watch out if 22 supports
      good luck !

  33. SOLUTION FOR ALL OF YOUR POSTING PROBLEMS and STILL be able to post as many times as you want.

    1) POST ONCE & KEEP continuous conversation going throughout the DAY ( if someone wants to find you they can go to the original post you started that morning. ps , they will see that you posted a new message in the right hand column.

    2) Do not keep going to the top of the messages/ POSTING a new message and cluttering up the blog with 5 min daytrades that might have a 30% chance of working.

    3 EX : ASA made his post this morning . IT’s easy keep posting a 1000 times a day if you wish under your original post .. DO NOT START a new one

    IT IS QUITE simple

    • Hi darkness…consider my earlier post 1 of 3 for today…..I hope it has a better than a 30% chance of playing out…it’s that quite simple…LOL

      BTW to save my quota, in response to aahm…last night. If /ES trades down to the 2600 profit target, Tony’s pivot…could be a possible swing trade set up for me. Depends if I take it and how much the counter trend rally there is by the closing. Up big, might take a chance and hold. Up slightly on the trade and I sell before the close…but that’s just me.
      Good luck all.

      • Seriously, you are probably the greatest trader in the world. I don’t really know much about the biz.

        Everyone will know where to find you ( under your original post of the day )

        Love that algo ( system ) very sophisticated ! With all that success with the ALGO , you and the DH guy’s should start a Hedge Fund …It would be amazingly successful. I’m so surprised that it hasn’t already happened.You guy’s could rival Jim Simons at Renaissance capital .

        Good luck

        • kvilia says:

          Interesting idea, Dark. I really like it.
          Phil, asa – want to come out of the retirement and give it a shot?

          • hi kvilia…LOL. I don’t understand darkness’s arrogant and condescending post towards me..totally inappropriate. Don’t know what the difference between my post and others when they make a call on the market. But whatever.

            BTW The march futures had a small counter trend rally to a high to 2632…hhhmmm???and my post this morning (below) …well just a guess, 100% luck.

            “….what could happen and I will be on the lookout for, is a smaller counter trend rally, perhaps around Tony’s 2632 pivot and then decline…”

            • kvilia says:

              Asa, with futures rollover and such a lousy action, its just a matter of time before markets take a nose dive. Problem is people dwell on this bull mentality and expect a rebound after short term correction. Well, market action shows this is a bear market, and bear markets can be very dangerous. So smart thing for me is play it down until it proves otherwise. All the counter trends up are just a dead cat bounce that will end in a powerful swoosh down, so the rogues will sell in a disbelief and panic for the wave b to start. Then they will be buying at the top of wave b just to find themselves caught with pants down.
              I believe aah is right in his posts, just trading longer term. I trade highly illiquid instruments that cannot be held overnight, so I have more interest in what DH, you and Phil are doing.
              Any way, I think that after wave c is done, I will not be surprised to find ES around 2072 – 38% retracement of the whole move from 666 bottom. I disagree with Tony on the last bull market length and think its been going on since 2009. So with all positive economy sentiment I dont see any support on the chart until mentioned number – just look at the monthly chart.

  34. lml25 says:

    “I keep saying that the year has been unable to escape the magnetic pull of last year’s close. Therefore, the single most likely outcome is a continuation of the 2 month range and more oscillation around last year’s 2689.75 close.

    Day traders are receiving good opportunities to swing trade up and down. There is no sign that this is about to end.”
    –Al Brooks

  35. Good morning all. Interesting activity last night…..starting to think of the more bearish analysis, let’s see what happens today. If /ES were going to trade the next traditional move setup, it would have a counter trend rally to the yellow line at /ES 2651.88. This level is the 50% short…..the high anchor was Wednesday’s high, the low anchor is the overnight low. Notice that the gap (dotted red line) is just below this resistance line. The gap and the 50% short will try and act as magnets for this upcoming counter trend rally. Interesting bull/ bear fight could be brewing this morning.

    That is a long way up from current levels. What could happen and I will be on the lookout for, is a smaller counter trend rally, perhaps around Tony’s 2632 pivot and then decline to the profit target (green dotted line) of this measured move short at 2600….just 6 points within Tony’s next pivot point of 2594.

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