Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +157

For the first three days of the week Asian markets have gained 0.3%, and European markets have gained 1.7%. The US started the week at SPX 2633. On Monday it opened slightly lower, then pulled back to its lowest level of this Int. A correction: SPX 2583. After hitting that level the market quickly rebounded to end positive on the day. On Tuesday a gap up opening drove the SPX to 2674 in the opening hour, but then it sold off to SPX 2621. Another rally to SPX 2660 was also sold off to SPX 2637. Wednesday another gap up opening, which carried the SPX to 2685. Then of course another pullback, this time to SPX 2651 where it closed.

From Monday’s potentially Int. A SPX 2583 low, the market has tried to establish a new uptrend. Thus far the rally has been quite choppy: 2674-2621-2660-2637-2685-2650. Certainly not impulsive. But a B wave rally does not have to been impulsive. These last couple of days the NDX/NAZ has been leading and the DOW has been lagging. If the growth sector wins out in the end, an Int. wave B could be well underway. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum is working off a negative divergence at today’s highs and has dropped to below neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable


About tony caldaro

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291 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. naz43 says:

    CIAO Tony, facendo il conteggio sull’indice italiano che è più chiaro … mi è venuto questo conteggio su SPX


  2. fionamargaret says:

    Shut your eyes and listen to the intonation of this Romanian pianist…quite lovely and different.
    I would like to hear her play with a slightly more sophisticated orchestra…..I know…


  3. Hi
    H&S target ~9050,TL/SMA200 test
    if doesn’t hold,next will be 2016 bottom


  4. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Looks like a complete 5 or 7 wave series into key support. (Diagonal)
    DT confirmed today, not Mon/Tues, like I thought. But it was still a good trade. 😉
    SPX ~


  5. torehund says:

    The freight rates of oil tells another story than the price decline of oil itself. Ghost tells it is headed to 40 a barrel, but if not there is a slim chance it could turn up from the if 1-2 and latest 1-2 is in any way completed. Whats you take on oil ?


  6. Good evening all. What a day. To save time, I put all my notes on this chart. /ES is currently trading in no mans land…in between a 50% micro short and 2 profit targets of this current measured move short. IMHO, the higher probability, is /ES will have a counter trend rally, which will possibly lead /ES down to test the 2 profit targets outlined on the chart.

    Naturally, I can’t r/o a quick test of the profit targets on the Sunday night open….talking probabilities here, when the /ES is trading in no mans land. The entry long or short would be at a profit target (long) or the 50%/61.8% shorts (short). Full disclosure, DH chart and DH/my analysis.

    Have a good weekend!


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