Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then slide, DOW -799

During the first two days of the week Asian markets gained 0.5%, and European markets gained 0.6%. The US market started the week at SPX 2760. After a gap up opening to SPX 2800 on Monday the market started to pullback. The pullback continued with today’s gap down opening as the SPX hit 2697. Quite a drop in two days, after a 5 day 169 point rally. Volatility continues.

We had counted five waves up from SPX 2631 to SPX 2800: 2672-2653-(2674-2656-2744-2723)-2754-2733-2800. The parenthesis are the subdivisions of wave 3. Notice all the pullbacks were around 20 points. On Monday the market dropped 27 points after that big gap up opening, suggesting the largest pullback since the SPX 2631 low was now underway. Dropping 103 points in 2 days is large, and swift. We placed a Minor wave A label at the SPX 2800 high, suggesting Minor B is now underway. A 61.8% retracement of the entire rally is at SPX 2696, close to today’s low. When Minor B concludes we expect another rally that should eclipse SPX 2800, then reach 2815 or higher. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

Tomorrow US markets are closed for a Day of Mourning for POTUS 41.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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615 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. I was referencing the es earlier when I said the spx. 2632 was the spx number and 2628 was the es number for the close. That makes the case for the bullish stick sandwich I mentioned yesterday on the weekly. 3 weeks in the making

  2. schizo1688 says:

    Black Monday ? Nahhhhhhhhh .. it’s dec

  3. H D says:

    25oo’s on deck next week

    • elmer510 says:

      SPX finished higher than important 2621 and the test from above was successfull. Now most of the sellers have emtied their pockets a while. The algorithmes soon turns upwards for a couple of weeks.

      We’ll sing ‘Happy days are here again’ (Intermediate wave B).

  4. Mark Smith says:

    I can’t imagine these lows holding here, without some “whoosh” down that nets additional capitulation and headlines. What I don’t understand fully is how I’ve been able to take trial longs, have them go against me, and yet get rescued with retracements. My account remains within a couple of percent of its high-water mark for the year, despite my transgressions. To see gaps down, like yesterday, get filled so quickly, is odd for a bear.

  5. tommyboys says:

    Squeeze into close…?

  6. micky says:

    Seems DB ish, it is until it’s not. Can be a biggish ab with c up to start soon .

  7. dwr51 says:

    It never hurts to keep an eye on the Transports.Wiped out yesterdays lows, does not bode well for the overall markets.
    Dave

  8. purplember says:

    this selloff today could lead to a very bad monday imo.

  9. Remember folks…. there are NO CRASHES in December.
    None.

    lol

  10. just out from zerohedge….U.S. prosecutors feel Ms. Weng is a flight risk and don’t recommend bail. If she fights extradition, the process could take weeks/months.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/canadian-prosecutors-warn-huawei-cfo-flight-risk-whose-bail-couldnt-be-high-enough

  11. travis01 says:

    Ahh cmon! Somebody say it…PIVOT!

  12. lunker1 says:

    3BR
    Appears SPX gave a weekly 3BR buy signal off the 2603 low right?

    In my world the larger the time frame the more important the signal so a weekly would be more important then a daily which is more important then a 60 minute etc.

    Right?

    • aahmichael says:

      Incorrect. That’s not how it works. The 3BR is only consistently profitable on 60min and daily bars. When it comes to the weekly, the smaller the range of the bars, then the higher the odds for success. That’s the opposite of the setup from the 2603 low.

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Int A marked on chart in jeopardy now?

  14. SPX price at the close anyone? I’d like to see 2628

  15. searchme2017 says:

    For anyone still looking………here are a couple of more “Q’s”

    “Initiative Q is an attempt by ex-PayPal guys to create a new payment system instead of payment cards that were designed in the 1950s. The system uses its own currency, the Q, and to get people to start using the system once it’s ready they are allocating Qs for free to people that sign up now (the amount drops as more people join – so better to join early). Signing up is free and they only ask for your name and an email address. There’s nothing to lose but if this payment system becomes a world leading payment method your Qs can be worth a lot. If you missed getting bitcoin seven years ago, you wouldn’t want to miss this. Here is my invite link:

    https://initiativeq.com/invite/H-1jInT67

    This link will stop working once I’m out of invites. Let me know after you registered, because I need to verify you on my end.”

  16. Larry Kudlow is interviewed on CNBC and optimistically says that the 90 day deadline with China on tariffs is not etched in stone. 20 minutes later trade hawk Peter Navarro is interviewed on Fox News and says that the 90 day deadline is a hard-cap on negotiations and as indeed a “line in the sand” or else. Market reverses and tanks. LOL!

    Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is now down to 2.4%
    It was at 3.0% just six weeks ago.

    • The fact that the two major drivers of economic policy arent even on the same page, is beyond comprehension. Never mind that setting up a 90 day “window” does nothing but usher in a ton of uncertainty…. which markets obviously hate.

      Leadership comes at the top. It’s not just Kudlow and Navarro. Trump was literally “tweeting” about how well things were going with Xi…. while Sabrina Meng was being arrested. LOL!

      It’s obvious that the corporate tax cuts that were designed to stimulate cap-ex….. have paled (failed) in comparison to the uncertainty that has been generated by a trade policy that puts a cloud on future corporate cash-flows.

      At the very least, we’re having a “growth” Recession.
      Earnings growth is going from 22% YoY in Q3 to mid single digits next year.

      • The sooner people realize that this place is run by a bunch of emperors with no clothes, the sooner they can go about the business of salvaging what s left of all the damage done. And this is going to take a long time to salvage.

        It takes years to construct something. It takes a day to destroy it.

    • Kudlow is an acclaimed grad of AA.
      Of the 12 step rules of AA, several are a jumble of “never speak ill of anybody or anything”.
      Kudlow is a good spokesperson for Trump is some circumstances, but not in all.
      In other words, sometimes best to ignore him.

  17. Lee x says:

    I think you guys got your 3 posts in

  18. phil1247 says:

    floyd …… just for you

    bonds …. shorts on …. shorts off 🙂

    • floyd drummer says:

      nice, … i put shorts on , …i put shorts off. i even managed to put a long on and a long off.

      i also had a fat finger trade that i accidently put on, …had to remember to breath in as i put that one off.

  19. A 61.8% long just broke a few minutes ago at 2655..now expecting a CTR….50% between this mornings high/low…. potentially to 2681

  20. lml25 says:

    You guys are something else.Everything is “after the fact”–which is usually a wrong assumption–not a fact.Someday 3200 will be hit,but saying we’re going straight up is disingenuous at best and very likely will cost some inexperienced people a lot of money.Every time theres a rally,that 3200 chart gets posted.See ya!

  21. aahmichael says:

    KISS:
    2800-2622 = 5 waves down
    2622- 2709 = abc to HWB. While that may only be wave (a) of a larger, more complex, corrective wave, it’s done enough to be the entire corrective wave. A close below 2671.86 at 11:30am will seal the deal. Trend remains down, regardless.

  22. Iranian oil delegate confirms 1.2 million barrels a day cuts with 800,000 coming from OPEC and 400,000 by non-OPEC. However, this statement could lose some “juice” given that nothing has been announced in so far as what month these cuts are based on, and how much of the 800,000 OPEC cut will be the responsibility of the Saudis.

  23. Hi All If you place an anchor at the previous around high, 2815, and a low anchor at yesterday’s afternoons lows, /ES just traded up to, and defended a 61.8% SHORT. This is the larger setup therefore has more “weight” to the grading activity. /VX is supporting this setup.
    Note a DH disciple call….LOL

  24. schizo1688 says:

    Hi Phil , what’s you target for SnP ? Looks like going below 2600 today

  25. ninjashade314 says:

    Hi fxaprendiz,
    Forgot to say thank you for your kind words yesterday. I am also hoping that this is a c wave to >2815. Im not sure if 2870 could be achieved, but my first stop would be somewhere in the 2830 region where a=c (a: 2603-2815, c ongoing from 2621)

  26. Page says:

    Markets will be down today and Monday.

  27. fxaprendiz says:

    SL on my 2622 long position moved from 2600 to BE. If this is already wave c of B up then SPX has no business in the 2630-2603 area anymore until +2870 is reached.
    Taking a look at the overnight price action, if 2669 was all of the pullback then I would consider that a small wave 2, and the wave 3 up can easily reach the high 2792-2795 area by mid next week. Depending on how if wave 3 stops there or further subdivides, wave c of B can be either an impulse or become a zigzag, in which case it would be a y of B.
    Sorry I’m not posting any chart today. Still in bed and feeling too lazy to draw a proper chart lol. Just taking measurements and posting from my phone. Trade safe everyone.

    • ninjashade314 says:

      Hi fxaprendiz,
      Forgot to say thank you for your kind words yesterday. I am also hoping that this is a c wave to >2815. Im not sure if 2870 could be achieved, but my first stop would be somewhere in the 2830 region where a=c (a: 2603-2815, c ongoing from 2621)

      • fxaprendiz says:

        My pleasure, ninja.
        Yes SPX could stop in the area you mention, although looking at the big picture I still give 2869-2903 better odds of being the magnet area. Those levels are the 0.786 and 0.886 fibs of the 2942 to 2603 wave A down, and if that’s only part of a bigger flat, which I think it is, then ideally wave B we are in should end closer to a 90% retracement of A, or at least 80%, hence my numbers.
        At 2903, wave c of B would be a little over 1.272 of wave a, not really that long.
        Of course if we are not dealing with a bigger flat but another EW shape then anything over 2818, the end of wave a, will do.
        Trade safe!

  28. phil1247 says:

    good place to add bond shorts

    theo mm tore floyd

    glad to see you guys are interested in my favorite 🙂

    • floyd drummer says:

      .618 target from 2621.25 anchor to 2668 anchor. …i have gained a late fondness for the . 618 target.

      thx for the chart, …do like the bonds. …waiting for the move. patience pays.

      • phil1247 says:

        welcome floyd
        added shorts yesterday at blue line which is the 38 special of the
        HUGE long

        • floyd drummer says:

          i have tried a few of your favorites, …GC, ..nice to trade, …and EURO , …which traded well, ….as well.
          how ’bout a chart of the EURO.

          thx, …and GL

          • phil1247 says:

            not interested in euro now floyd
            … choporama
            stick with bonds
            trending and technical
            much better than es
            … i only look at es because thats all people here want to talk about
            i dont think es is that great to trade

            dont be afraid to take bond short profits
            already took some TBT off from yesterday

            have a good weekend!

            • floyd drummer says:

              ES is not great to trade, …but it seems to shape other trades. …so i watch it.

              i trade vehicles/times that are a bit more manageable, ….EURO was nothing today , but it was tradeable. …bonds were a little more work.

              i like the chop, …i trade the chop, … some different DH tricks in the chop.

    • mm4398 says:

      I jumped the gun at 142-16 yesterday in mar ZB, but looking pretty good this morning. I plan to add below 142.

  29. phil1247 says:

    es 2712 next target

  30. garstall says:

    Hello Tony,
    If I understand your revised charts, you are expecting only a slight upswing to green int b, followed by a hard fall to blue c. Is that correct? Thanks.

  31. Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou to appear in Vancouver court for bail hearing. Hearing scheduled for 1:00 PM local time, which I believe is 4:00PM EST.

    A rhetorical question …..how can anyone hold a position long or short over the weekend…..I think this afternoons trading is going to be very interesting.

  32. Good morning all. /ES broke a small extension LONG, in the overnight session. The first short set-up has defended it’s 50% short at /ES 2684 (yellow line a few hours ago). DH chart.

    Bottom line is /ES 2688. Bullish above and bearish below.

  33. retiree247 says:

    retiree247 says:
    December 7, 2018 at 12:12 am
    Hi Qball, nice to meet you. Just to let you know….I’m not here to play. I am a retiree who has relieved my PNC wealth manager from his duties as of Jan. 2, 2018.
    I am very flexible, my trades via SPY shares vary from 1 day to month’s depending on the trend. I try to keep it simple, using TC’s pivots. I’m in today long from 2632 and 2655. Cashed out 1/2 at 2690 before todays close. I’m keeping some for tomorrow and have a stop at 2650 just in case it goes rotten tomorrow. With the help of guys like Tony, Phil, Asa ,KV, and Lunker my IRA is 12% on the good side. Keeping that in mind, I don’t trade blindly on other peoples opinions. Bottom line… Its my money…I MAKE THE RULES!!!!
    Take care and God Bless!

  34. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Tony for what you do…….and everyone for contributing xx

  35. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  36. Good evening all. I know there are a few people on this board that don’t think much of Atilla, fine. Personally, I’ve followed him for years. He is a very talented trader who often takes a great deal of heat but seems to do just fine in the long run. Sol, his adm. used to post all his trades in real time….amazing results, like 1 year >100%. He now charges around $3,000 a year for a subscription…so I just follow him on twitter. Anyway this was his post tonight and I wanted to share it with you.
    @xtrends
    ·
    4h
    Today’s action increased the odds for a market crash within 2 trading days

    @xtrends
    To be more specific, the day ES opens below 2640, chances are elevated that later that day broad market circuit breakers will be activated at least at level-1

  37. purplember says:

    Tony, i noticed you moved Int A to today’s low of 2620. however, Minor C (2800 to 2620) of Int A doesn’t have an ABC. Do you think the rally today to 2698 could be the minute B of minor C and one more wave down to complete Int A ?

  38. fionamargaret says:

    Looking at slightly older news, do you remember when the Central Bank warned about stock price drops….well, it happened just prior to the crash in ’29…..just interesting.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/fed-warns-that-particularly-large-plunge-in-asset-prices-is-possible-if-risks-materialize.html

    • fionamargaret says:

      2656, 2598, 2450 and I do not think 2340 is extraneous….if lower 2215, 2087.
      Use stops, but in the event of a crash, nothing works better than being on the sidelines….x

      • Page says:

        Fiona… you forgot 666 in your low seq. 😀

      • Philippe V says:

        Hi Fiona, if I understand well the levels you mention in your sequences (be it for SPX, Crude, ETF’s, etc…) are derived from some mathematical pattern that you are able to somehow decipher by looking at the price action. But is there any timeframe attached to the sequences ? We might achieve your numbers several weeks/months down the line but in the meantime, the market can go against you like it did last week when SPX briefly reached 2’815, before going down and eventually perhaps meeting your targets. So how do you use these levels to position yourself if you aren’t able to have some idea regarding when they will be reached ? BTW, keep posting the music links, always great choices !

    • Hi Fiona,
      I posted a very large pitchfork a few weeks ago indicating a very large drop is possible, near term. Nobody here was interested.

  39. jobjas says:

    2590 final target for the drop that started at 2940
    Then to ATH with minimum target of 3050 and final of 3300

  40. Kisshu2 says:

    Thanks Tony, …I wonder if Lee held on to those 3000 es all night and day?….

  41. ninjashade314 says:

    Mr. Caldaro, may I just float my 2cents of this count:
    2940-2603 int a
    2603-2815 minor a of int b
    2815-2631-2800-2621 minor b of int b (flat)
    2621- minor c of int b (target >2815)

    Is this still a remote possibility or this is not being considered at present? Sorry for the repost but this was lost in the posts during market hours..
    Yours sincerely,

  42. vivelaamo says:

    Wow what a gap fill and bounce. That was the last chance to get long. Don’t get greedy now and keep trying to short. You’ll end up losing your pants.

  43. I won’t post frequent updates. But just for now, note where it opened and where it closed. If things will normalize (and right now I think yes) we’ll be checking out the middle lines soon.

    Getting there is only half the story. Need to stabilize (oscillate with normal noise behavior) around those middles. We’ll see.

  44. Sure feels like people who were in the KNOW about the impending arrest of Sabrina Meng ….. started getting out of the market on Tuesday morning, triggering all kinds of sell-stops and liquidation. In fact, John Bolton told NPR that he knew in advance, care of our Justice Department.

    And here we are today at 2696…. 75 points off the puke low.

    Glad I picked up some longs in my favorite names…. EXAS, CERS, AQDEL, SRPT, and GH.

    GH was a monster today, closing +15% off the low!

    🙂

    • zvyezda says:

      Agree with you completely on this: it was a setup and it stinks. I still came out ahead today but I have had it with all the neocons he has surrounded himself with and the deep state he has not excised.

      Here is the Bolton item you referenced:

      https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-06/bolton-was-aware-huawei-cfo-was-arrested-while-having-dinner-xi

      • M Wags says:

        Agreed 100%

        Trump’s claim of “Draining the Swamp” is a bad joke. Youve got to be either really gullible, or sporting a very low IQ to believe him. He’s got neo-cons and industry lobbyists all over the place…from the EPA to the Department of Interior.

        And now he’s about to appoint a total novice and unqualified person whose resume has ZERO policy making experience…to be our U.N. Ambassador.

        This is not a “starter” position. It is hardcore and requires a grasp of world history and intense policy making experience.

        What is her experience?

        She was an anchor at Fox News!

        Pathetic.

        • Will not get political on Tony’s site….google how many….. SENIOR …. DOJ and FBI were either fired, demoted, retired or transferred. The number is astounding. The number on that list will rise exponentially, once Mr. Barr is confirmed as the new AG.

          Heather is smart, intelligent, articulate woman. She was the DOJ spokesperson and is well versed on the issues. The fact that she is very comfortable in from of the TV camera is a big plus.

      • Blue and Zvyezda ……

        I have rethought this and checked and double-checked with all my (rather thorough and unusual) sources. We have not been told the truth. What else is new? We rarely are.

        I am convinced that the battle-axe clowns ate dinner without ANY clue. What happened *surprised* ALL of them badly. [If you check, you will find that Bolton has backtracked on his “I knew” statement]. Understand this: this is a gang of incompetent liars. But then almost every administration is. No point in taking sides.

        Now Bolton had to say “yeah, I know, because we are US and tops you know, and I am informed of everything instantly”. But as soon as he does this, the problem becomes “why did Trump yak and stuff his fat face all through dinner and not know?” The Chinese will ask this over and over. You cannot have it both ways.

        Well, nobody knew this was happening. It caught them flat-footed. Now they have to figure out what to do because law (you can make sanctions and make any law you want) is involved.

        The only way one can start to see the world *clearly* is to stop flag-waving. Now, when your arms are not tired you can look deeply and start to think from a fresh, rested place.

        It is a scary but an honest process. Because it means one will have to move out of a lot of the habitual and safe places in one’s thinking and be thoroughly honest with oneself and everyone else. Not easy.

        🙂

      • fionamargaret says:

        Probably I posted the same as Zyvezda…it was being discussed by CNBC as those that knew sold…..and the Chinese feel Trump was not bargaining in good faith….really…

        • Chinese feel like Trump was not bargaining in good faith…..the ultimate “pot calling the kettle black” statement. No government in the world lies, deceives, and steals like the Tyrannical Chinese government. I met a CEO of a company from Indonesia last year while visiting Israel. I ask him about the magnitude of Chinese theft. He told me it’s of a magnitude like no other. They steal entire industries, ie. LED manufacturing. Our last four Presidents rolled over while they urinated in our hats. It’s dang time someone stood up to them. Believe me, arresting the CFO at the same time the XI meeting was happening was no coincidence. They make no secret their desire for world domination by 2050. What the heck are people that thinking when they trust the Chinese. Complete and total nonsense and stupidity.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Tim, that is why I added the word “really”….it was meant to do exactly what you did… …analyze the entire situation, and allow variations and contradictions to enter one’s thinking, otherwise we are on the narrow path of accepting soundbites as truisms.

            • waterstim says:

              It has truly become a soundbite world, Fiona. I’ve recently read and thought a lot about the Fourth Turning. I sincerely hope for the best. I believe some “debt resetting”-dreadful- moments are going to occur before 2030. Who knows where that takes us? The next two years, leading up to the next Presidential Election, I’m very afraid, are going to lead to violence. Look at France right now. The World seems like it’s in 1914 all over again.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Waterstin, there is no one more scared than I.
                My father never really could come to terms with how a love of physics could have taken him where it did, but then someone would remind him of the consequences if we hadn’t been able to act…
                I watched his joy in teaching, his students, and in later life, his poetry….and we can just hope such a terrible tragedy will not befall us again…..x

          • M Wags says:

            Trump’s understanding of basic economics and global trade is terrible. The world is far too complicated for Trump to understand.

            He gets involved in tariffs, which is a bad decision in the first place…and then he compounds it by giving the Farmer’s a $12 Billion dollar Bail-Out. Since when has the GOP been in favor of Corporate Welfare?

            Meanwhile, U.S. Dairy Farmer’s are still gonna lose $1.5 Billion.

            Tariffs are a tax.
            Period.

            • M Wags says:

              PS. Just take a look at what the 25% tariffs on foreign steelmakers since March have done. All they have done is caused domestic steel producers to raise their prices…by as much or more. This has also driven up costs for U.S. MANUFACTURERS.

              Meanwhile, foreign steel’s share of the U.S. market remains significant. And the U.S. continues to be the largest IMPORT market for Steel in the world.

              Imports fill more than a Fifth of the nation’s steel supply. The tariffs have pushed up steel in the U.S. by 22% this year….attracting EVEN MORE IMPORTS from Europe and Asia, even after tariffs and transport costs.

              At $760 a ton, this is 70% higher than the price of sheet steel in other Countries.

              And the claim that this brings back more workers to the Steel Industey is a farce. Steel Mills are highly AUTOMATED these days, with a Nucor Mini Mill only requiring about 15 emoloyees.

              This is all Basic Econ.101 but Trump is clueless.

            • fionamargaret says:

              I am not disagreeing with you…I just wanted people to form their own opinions based on something more than spoon-fed soundbites…

              On another subject, you might be interested to know Sean Penn has inserted himself into the Khashoggi murder investigation….fools rush in where angels fear to tread…??

            • Wags, the stage has seamlessly moved from Tariffs to National Security.
              It seems you didn’t see that.
              Meaning the discussion was never really about tariffs. National Security was always the soft underbelly of the ChiCom’s agenda, that no previous POTUS was willing to address.
              From Fiona’s link above:

              Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), who serves as vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said it’s clear that Huawei and ZTE are a threat to national security

              If you have children you have to care.
              If you don’t have children, maybe you don’t have to care, but that isn’t a nice way to think about humanity.

    • He likely went from
      Long John, to
      John Bolted.

      Maybe even Short John.

      If John knew, his friends knew, though it’s hard to believe that moustache could have friends. Stinks is right.

  45. kvilia says:

    Has Tony answered a question about broken 2632 pivot?

  46. mm4398 says:

    Nice reversal in ZB today off the highs. Next week or so should tell us a lot.

  47. travis01 says:

    Doc, boarding flight home. Been great couple days trading up/down. Like any targets tomorrow? Gonna cash in overnight. Rode tvix like an elevator all week. Looking for 2700 then pivot pong tomorrow. GL

    • phil1247 says:

      straight up above 76

      could be reverse odf straight down earlier in the week

    • purplember says:

      2645 was nice entry

      • fxaprendiz says:

        2622 was even nicer 😉

        • phil1247 says:

          hey fx
          i am liking your chart more and more
          i would like better if it turned into an expanded flat up to 3032 … lol

          • fxaprendiz says:

            I’m not against the idea per se 😉
            Anything above 2870 will make me happy, as long as we get to ride the down swing afterwards =)

            • phil1247 says:

              its so tricky because until 3032 is hit it could still fall to 2454
              so your scenario of 2900 then down near 2400 is compatible

              love to hate spx chart is still ok as long as 2614 is not violated
              came very close today tho

              • phil1247 says:

                last one fx
                if i use a more conservative extension
                the drop can be down to 2417 for the .618 support
                i see you have that exact number on your chart

                target would be a little higher in this case … ie 3050 spx…
                a number jobjas has on his chart

              • fxaprendiz says:

                Phil, for some reason I can’t reply directly to your last comment, but here it is.
                Yes, I know which extension you are talking about, I think I posted a chart about it the other day. Extension from May 2015 top of 2,137 to January 2018 top of 2,876, I have the 0.618 fib at 2,419.7 That would go well with my 2,417.30 level (fib ret 1.272) in my weekly chart. However as I told you the other day, I’m leaning more now towards a slightly deeper bottom, which would correspond to an area between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements of the traditional of the Feb 2016 low, the 1,808 level to 2,876. To be more specific, in my weekly chart that would be the second level, the 1.618 fib ret at 2,309.63. Those are the 2 levels I’m watching and the why the yellow rectangle area of the PRZ (potential reversal zone) is between those 2 levels.
                As things are now, I’m like 40% in favor of the 2,417 level and 60% in favor of the 2,309 level. In any case, there will plenty of time to see which one pans out eventually.

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