Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then slide, DOW -799

During the first two days of the week Asian markets gained 0.5%, and European markets gained 0.6%. The US market started the week at SPX 2760. After a gap up opening to SPX 2800 on Monday the market started to pullback. The pullback continued with today’s gap down opening as the SPX hit 2697. Quite a drop in two days, after a 5 day 169 point rally. Volatility continues.

We had counted five waves up from SPX 2631 to SPX 2800: 2672-2653-(2674-2656-2744-2723)-2754-2733-2800. The parenthesis are the subdivisions of wave 3. Notice all the pullbacks were around 20 points. On Monday the market dropped 27 points after that big gap up opening, suggesting the largest pullback since the SPX 2631 low was now underway. Dropping 103 points in 2 days is large, and swift. We placed a Minor wave A label at the SPX 2800 high, suggesting Minor B is now underway. A 61.8% retracement of the entire rally is at SPX 2696, close to today’s low. When Minor B concludes we expect another rally that should eclipse SPX 2800, then reach 2815 or higher. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

Tomorrow US markets are closed for a Day of Mourning for POTUS 41.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

616 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. phil1247 says:


    perfection !

    it doesnt get any better than this for exact buy / sell levels
    i warned weeks ago that being short bonds
    was getting to be the consensus view…………
    “shorting bonds was a no brainer” someone said
    when you hear that … run for the hills
    by hitting target at oval at 3.46 yield
    and NOT going thru to create an extension
    i warned to get out of TBT for weeks because a bond squeeze was coming
    at 3.13% took initial short via TBT where it turned perfectly


    still looking for bond crash
    but everyone must be convinced that bonds are a buy
    before that can happen


  2. dwr51 says:

    Does anyone here remember a fellow here called RidetheWaves or something like that from a few years ago. He was a rude obnoxious sort of a fellow who made a few good calls and then disappeared into the ethernet after his BS was called out. Happens often on this site as many old timers can attest to (right Lee ).Now we have another one who can’t disappear quick enough.


  3. SP market has been on a rise since 2009. This is 2018, isn’t time for a Bear market???


  4. abcharts says:

    Trin at 2.76 second highest of the last two years. Could lead to a swift bounce of the SPX tomorrow target 2740, but need a new low Friday, before new swing uptrend from Monday.


  5. M1 says:

    What a selloff yesterday !!!…it was much larger than expected but it is still within the limits for a wave 2 up. Santa’s rally should resume shortly.
    I wonder what the ultrabears are expecting now ?


  6. gary61b says:

    ES, looking for a HWB traditional with the T at 2727.5 to be hit, lets see what happens.
    Phil, 987 T chart. lets rumble. https://gyazo.com/a392153a15da190f4a022f0674572cf4


  7. Last Commment for quite a while…that said….
    If we are moving intoo a Bear market then, the low is in June 2020…
    not expecting further comments until 2020….end


  8. ninjashade314 says:

    Sr. Tony Caldaro,
    As a silent reader, I would like to say thank you for providing additional update. I imagine how dedicated you have to be, to run this blog and guide lost souls like myself.
    Sincerely yours,


  9. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony.

    Loving Allen Kimbles posts. Great entertainment and also knows what he is talking about.

    Surprised by the size of the drop but as long as Oct lows hold we’re all good to go for December.


  10. stockop says:

    can anyone pass on what the financial news cycle is like not in the US? they’re fairly bearish around here. talk of the day is about inverted yield curves, Trump investigation, and China trade deal.

    whats it like in the UK, Germany or Japan? I assume China isn’t even worth asking about as its probably mostly filtered propaganda.


    • fionamargaret says:

      …DB….again…with tentacles reaching out to the US and European banking systems….is that why the financial stocks are lagging….


      • nyjsec314 says:

        Amazing that DB isn’t forced to shut its doors. It’s a toxic, failing financial nuclear reactor waiting to explode.


      • fionamargaret says:

        …two of the houses suggested going to cash…
        I am wondering if the downdraft in the futures is totally the Chinese story, allowing DB not to be in the forefront…just a thought…

        If we get the sequence I suggested 2656, 2598, 2450, and 2340…depending on momentum….then Tony is still right, as I used his numbers within the pattern.

        Oil is still down to 34….DWT…stops…x


    • mcgcapital says:

      I’m in the UK, we basically have the same newsflow as the US. Most of the financial news sources here are American companies (CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters etc). It’s because there isn’t really the same interest in the markets over here as there is there.

      People here invest in stocks via the pension, or through company share options. But it’s quite rare for someone to own shares outside of that, and if they do, they probably aren’t actively trading them. Most individual’s investment capital goes into property, as property is much more expensive here relative to earnings, probably because space is more limited.

      The culture of caring about the stock market is for the most part a uniquely American thing, it wouldn’t get a mention here unless something major had happened like a 2008. And I think that reflects in the price action.. all of the major moves happen during Wall Street trading hours. You wouldn’t see a move like we had yesterday during the Asian or European session unless there’s a news event behind it


      • stockop says:

        thank you for the response. truly surprised that caring about the stock market is mainly an American thing considering the UK was the basis for our exchanges. crazy to me more people wouldn’t want to be involved


      • retiree247 says:

        MCG….damn, thats what we need around here. Great post worthy of more discussion.
        Tomorrow looks to be a busy day, market wise. Its getting late and perhaps we could continue this talk over the weekend. My wife showed me how to copy and paste today, so this may show up later as a topic. Take care.


Comments are closed.