Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening then slide, DOW -799

During the first two days of the week Asian markets gained 0.5%, and European markets gained 0.6%. The US market started the week at SPX 2760. After a gap up opening to SPX 2800 on Monday the market started to pullback. The pullback continued with today’s gap down opening as the SPX hit 2697. Quite a drop in two days, after a 5 day 169 point rally. Volatility continues.

We had counted five waves up from SPX 2631 to SPX 2800: 2672-2653-(2674-2656-2744-2723)-2754-2733-2800. The parenthesis are the subdivisions of wave 3. Notice all the pullbacks were around 20 points. On Monday the market dropped 27 points after that big gap up opening, suggesting the largest pullback since the SPX 2631 low was now underway. Dropping 103 points in 2 days is large, and swift. We placed a Minor wave A label at the SPX 2800 high, suggesting Minor B is now underway. A 61.8% retracement of the entire rally is at SPX 2696, close to today’s low. When Minor B concludes we expect another rally that should eclipse SPX 2800, then reach 2815 or higher. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum was extremely oversold at the close. Best to your trading!

Tomorrow US markets are closed for a Day of Mourning for POTUS 41.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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616 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. kvilia says:

    Phil,
    ES 61.8% line was nicked. Now looking at Tony’s pivots before going long: 2656 and 2632.
    Also, see my CL charts below. I wish Ameritrade let me have futures account, I’d just hold long term. All those funds, you cant hold them overnight 😦
    Take care.

    Like

    • phil1247 says:

      kvilia

      i call a nick on es 1 or 2 ticks
      this was about 2 points
      more than a nick ……….and bad news going forward
      i cant go long while extension short 15 min is in force

      Like

      • kvilia says:

        Phil,
        That’s exactly what I’m talking about – lower to one of the pivots and turn around, so we will buy on retrace after extension break. So far we are in shorts!
        As I said earlier, the astro cycle for markets end around Dec 5th and next turbulence start beginning of January. So we could expect just a quick dip for another 50-60 points and a steady move to mid 1800s, about 160-200 pts IMO – Santa rally, This bodes really well with Tony’s projection! Let’s see amigo!

        Like

  2. Just read that Vancouver Real Estate Sales PLUNGED 42.5% during the month of November. The lowest level since the Great Recession.
    Wow!

    Like

    • riderbobo says:

      Selling prices hung in there.

      The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,042,100. This represents a 1.4 per cent decrease over November 2017 and a 1.9 per cent decrease compared to October 2018.

      Condo and townhouse prices were up modestly year over year. Single family homes dragged the composite benchmark price down.

      Like

  3. torehund says:

    …a p-3 philosopher acknowledging the cycle of sparse sunspot activity. And its effect on human consciousness.

    Like

  4. gary61b says:

    ES, as of one minute ago this where the largest 10 limit orders are . https://gyazo.com/ddbb29e97f51247df6f6b0ac0e20f20d

    Like

  5. Bradley Hoffmockel says:

    Thanks Tony! What I appreciate most of all is your consistent calmness when things seem the most crazy. Highest regards to you and all the posters.

    Like

  6. E says:

    Massive drop in Feb. Extremely sluggish and choppy rebound (with no wave 3 subdivision) to gain almost nothing from Feb to Sept. Another massive drop in Oct, this time taking out market leaders like AAPL and NFLX left and right. (If you guys haven’t noticed, they are nearly down 50% from their tops.) Market internals severely damaged with 52-wk lows outpacing 52-wk highs at nearly 5:1 ratios everyday for the past month. Massive wave 1 drop today surpassing most of the previous wave 3 drops since Feb while we are sitting at the pivot of a new 2-week (likely downside) cycle. Treasury yields inverted yesterday. Tony’s long term outlook is still bearish. What is going on here that the sentiment on this board is the most bullish I’ve ever seen it??? I don’t get it.

    Like

    • allen kimble says:

      It’s because it’s December you amateur
      . Wait till Jan and things will flip. Get with. Absolutely nothing today suggests anything lower than 2603.

      I’m shocked by the lack of respect for seasonality here. (Shaking my head)

      Like

      • E says:

        Yes, I am an amateur. Thank you very much. But I respect technicals and elliot wave more than seasonality. The elliot cycles existed long before the gregorian calendar was invented.

        Like

        • allen kimble says:

          Yeah tell that to Robert(scam)prechter..lol…

          Do yourself a favor. Look at the past 50 years and see if you can find a December crash. Good luck on that. Other than your amateur crash call, I agree with premise

          Please change ok. Though you might never be very good… at least follow the shot callers like myself.

          Like

          • travis01 says:

            Lol…shot caller. 😆

            Like

          • fionamargaret says:

            …buying a round or suggesting when to fire…

            Like

          • E says:

            Nothing in the last 50 years, but Bengal Bubble of 1769: As a result stocks of the British East India Company fell from £276 in December 1768 to £122 in 1784.

            Like

          • fionamargaret says:

            ..and in the early 1800’s , after the South Sea Bubble, limits were put on the formation of new ventures….but in 1825 this law was repealed to allow speculators to build a railway and canal network throughout Britain.
            Many politicians and landowners put most of their capital into this seemingly foolproof venture, and, as it became more popular, the amount needed to purchase shares fell to a minimum.
            As it became obvious many railroad ventures were not viable most of the politicians and those in the know, sold their shares just before the collapse, leaving the ordinary shareholders with relatively little or nothing (think Downton Abbey)….

            Like

      • stcoleridge says:

        With apologies to Macbeth if I may just paraphrase a little AK:
        “..it is a tale. Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. “

        Like

    • It’s an interesting phenomena that you point out. I’ve also noticed the same kind of change in sentiment, even from perennially bearish posters on other blogs.

      In fact, just yesterday, I noticed that 2 of the biggest perma-bear posters at Daneric’s Elliott Waves flipped to Bulls.

      Now, these posters were not very big traders by any means, but we’re talking about one guy that had been long TZA for over 4 years citing the “Jaws of Death” pattern … along with another guy that had been accumulating FAZ for the last 2 years looking for a financial collapse. I saw this as a CONTRARY signal.

      The phenomena that you pointed out along with NY Fed President John Williams coming out this morning reiterating his support for continued interest rate increases . . . were enough to force me to immediately lighten up on my trading longs this morning and lag into a put-spread on my largest long term stock position (EXAS).

      Like

    • vivelaamo says:

      That’s not very bullish to be fair. This board is predominantly full of bearish bias and has been for years.

      Like

  7. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    Like

    • aahmichael says:

      Yet another example of the fraud of internet market callers. Your boy (which everyone knows is actually you,) was a super bull, calling for new ATHs literally at the dead high Sunday night. Now, after it drops 110 points, in a straight down decline, he (you) says “oh nevermind.”

      coolbiz1 @coolbizone
      Dec 2, 2018
      ES up +44.25 high was 2809.75 so far. As posted SPX target of 2842 is coming and if it exceeds 2868.71 new ATH is likely. The Tweet and the chart from Nov.29th below is playing out well. These 4 shares long with SPX should move up massively in coming dayshttps://twitter.com/coolbizone/status/1068226530873028608 …

      coolbiz1 @coolbizone
      https://twitter.com/coolbizone/status/1067880844344184832
      coolbiz1 @coolbizone
      Replying to @coolbizone
      SPX has crossed 2720, its heading towards minimum of 2842 with normal pullbacks along. Enjoy the ride. Discl: hold longs SPX with NFLX, AMZN, GOOGL & GS 3
      8:18 PM – Dec 2, 2018

      Like

      • cj32 says:

        aaahm,
        “As he posted SPX target of 2842 is coming and if it exceeds 2868.71 new ATH is likely”
        He was expecting 2842, it never came and it reversed severely from 2800 level.
        “if it exceeds 2868.71 new ATH is likely”
        1. You have a very poor reading comprehension.
        2, You have never posted any charts or any analysis with targets.
        3. You criticize and are rude to everyone here.
        4. You mention trades after a fact.
        5. You suffer severely from inferiority complex
        6. Just mind your own business and STOP your flawed assumptions.
        No time for rude people.

        Like

        • aahmichael says:

          1. I assume that every person on this blog has access to charts, therefore, I see no need to post something they already have access to.
          2. I never use targets, and I think that those who do post targets and trade basis targets are fools. The same goes for all market calls. They’re useless. The market has never paid anyone a penny for a market call, and the market couldn’t care less what anyone’s target is. The market will go where ever it wants to go, when ever it wants to go there. I’m a trend trader. The only thing I care about is the direction of the trend in the timeframe that I trade, as well as the support and resistance levels where any countertrend move should stop.
          3. What you should have said is that you read the market completely wrong, and that the trend remains down, and that is why the rally stopped dead in its tracks Sunday night at the .618 and 20wma level of 2812.
          4. What I do here is share my analysis techniques in an attempt to help others count waves properly, learn about candlestick patterns, learn about pivots, and I also urge people to develop an objective and automated trading system that takes all the guess work out of trading.
          5. One last word about pivots: Tony’s pivot yesterday was 2798. The daily R3 was also 2798, and the weekly R1 pivot was also 2798. Three different calculations gave the exact same pivot yesterday. For those who weren’t able to short at 2812 overnight, because they don’t trade futures, knowing that there was a massive confluence of of resistance at 2798-2800 should have never been missed by anyone.

          Like

        • swamper1 says:

          cj, every blog, BB, etc. has it share of bad actors, just as in life. these obnoxious and rude people who refuse to mind their own business just don’t get it. and eventually will weed themselves out. i for one enjoy your commentary and market calls. keep up the good work.

          Like

          • cj32 says:

            swamper1,
            Some people are so vague after a fact, never project direction or probable targets and when others post somethings of value, misread or take info. out of context and state their flawed opinions and assumptions. They don’t matter until they start to meddle.
            I would say “If you have a factual point to make, show the numbers, the chart, the facts. Otherwise it’s just postulation and not very useful.” IMHO

            Like

          • phil1247 says:

            inned Tweet

            Urban Carmel

            @ukarlewitz
            2 Mar 2017
            More
            If you have a factual point to make, show the numbers, the chart, the facts. Otherwise it’s just postulation and not very useful. jmo

            Like

          • mcgcapital says:

            Lol word for word plagiarism 😂

            Like

          • cj32 says:

            yes, had written this line sometime ago and it was from Urban Carmel. Cr. to him. Thanks for reminder

            Like

      • abcharts says:

        Hi Michael,

        I personally still think that the SPX will resume his uptrend next Monday 10, target all time high early January 2019.
        20/12/2018: 2850
        4/5 sessions retrace at 2780-90
        Then 2940/1990 early 2019.

        Like

        • abcharts says:

          Then 2940/2990 early 2019.

          Like

        • aahmichael says:

          Ok, but in my 35 years in this business, I have never known of 1 single person who can accurately predict things like that. The good news, though, is that you don’t have to know where the market is going, how long it will take to get there, or what path it will take, in order to be a very successful trader.

          Like

  8. phil1247 says:

    BONDS / ZB

    Tore

    tried to warn you about the brewing bond short squeeze a few weeks ago
    but i know you are holding TBT long term
    now we are almost to extension short entry so i am buying TBT now
    plus my elliott wave analysis ( lol) shows a =c now
    bond rally could be over
    or c may go to 1.618 X a and test higher ext short resistance

    armstrong still believes bond crash is coming
    how about you ?

    Like

    • torehund says:

      You need events to start wobbling in order to break out, and when it happens it will go lightning fast, difficult to say if we are nearing prime time. But we could😊
      Lots of focus on Deutche bank, and putting a candle below the troll the heat may pop it…

      Like

      • mm4398 says:

        Torehund are you saying lighting fast bond crash? I don’t disagree.

        Looking at long term charts the 30 Yr yield has pulled back to the 89 EMA on the monthly time frame. Throughout the bond bull the 89 acted as a cap for the 30 Yr yield. Will be interesting to see if the 89 is a yield floor during the bond bear.

        Like

    • mm4398 says:

      The 1.618ext of a would put the 30 yr at ~145 I believe. The 30 Yr Bond (not yield) 89 EMA is at 144.7 as of Dec 4th close. I like yesterday’s 143 to 145 for a high on this move up.

      Like

  9. blackjak100 says:

    2604 still holding like I said and will continue to hold…look for uptrend to start again at 2656 pivot or slightly above.

    Like

  10. allen kimble says:

    Crash callers in December will annihilated. Jan is the month real fear sets in.

    Like

    • travis01 says:

      You are ridiculous. Can’t speak for them, but the worst for any seller over the past month is what 70 pts (if they sold at low 2632). Otherwise they are likely just flat. I bet you are still a half decent trader…just an ass as a person.

      Like

    • alexhartley1 says:

      Agreed. From 1/1/19 watch out. From 16/1 approx will get particularly nasty.

      Like

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