Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW -1

The first three days of the week displayed Asian markets losing 0.8%, and European markets losing 0.5%. The SPX started the week at 2736, sold off to 2681 on Monday, gapped down to 2633, and then 2632 on Tuesday. Then Wednesday had a gap up opening carrying the SPX to 2671, before an afternoon pullback ended the day at 2650. This is not exactly what we had planned in the weekend update. This week, for the first time in many weeks, the market has deviated from the pattern we had been tracking.

Yesterday the NDX/NAZ made lower lows for their downtrends. While the SPX/DOW have not, we were not expecting that. This suggests their Intermediate wave A downtrends are continuing. Which also suggests the SPX/DOW may follow in an extended downtrend. Hard to pinpoint at the moment what lies immediately ahead. But we did notice that the NAZ, and only the NAZ, appears to have done five waves down from its bull market high. The other three indices are all in a-b-c mode. If this is the case it might help us identify the bear market low as it is unfolding. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day nearly at oversold. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Friday the markets close at 1pm.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable


About tony caldaro

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212 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Searchme: I registered with Q-Initriative but I did not use the pseudonym I use on this site (EGeorgeSchaeffer). I used my real name. How can you verify me? Also, to invite other people do I use the link that I signed on with, or do I send them another link?


  2. Jack Lad says:

    Just looking at the S&P 500 correction, the 5-3-5 pattern, the C=0.618A pattern, the divergence, the seasonal chart. Good job this is not the 7th year of the decade. Maybe this will be an unleap year. Just looking…


  3. searchme2017 says:

    Anyone else needing an invite? Here’s a couple for you…………and here is my invite link:

    This link will stop working once I’m out of invites. Let me know after you registered, because I need to verify you on my end.”


  4. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony.


  5. SPX…2940.91 appear’s to be, a bigger price top, than I earlier realized…


  6. csonkabull39 says:

    Need more popcorn.


  7. wanderer says:

    From time to time, I provide a summary of comments posted here. This is my service to the OEW community. The benefit is that if you don’t want to read all the comments, you can get pretty much all of them in one snapshot. Here is the summary.

    1. Most of the recent comments have been about “Initiative Q”. Initiative Q is the result of the massive migration of Indian IT workers in the United States, and importing their culture, which includes Kama Sutra, i.e. sex in weird positions. To push back against that abomination, the republicans in the house of representatives put up a proposition to regulate sex positions. The proposed bill lists the positions which are thought to have been “approved by Jesus”. This bill is called “Initiative Q”. Predictably, this is a much debated topic here in this blog.
    2. The OEW community is now clearly divided into 4 warring tribes. These tribes are: Phil’s, Michael’s, Fiona’s, and Allen’s. Phil’s tribe advocate some sort of “DH method”, which amounts to trading the “traditional”, “sub-traditional”, and “nano-traditional” waves. Michael’s tribe tout the use of “stops” and “targets”. Allen’s camp prescribes the nihilistic approach which postulates that, basically, nothing works. Finally, Fiona’s camp wants to exchange music videos, and to kiss endlessly. Which tribe will prevail?
    3. Looks like the most obscure prognosticators are gone. This includes the “juppies” (the folks who measure the angles between Jupiter and Saturn to predict the market direction), the “moonies” (these dudes track lunar cycles), the “gunnies” (the financial geometry followers, which amounts to classifying the angles between price levels “acute” and “obtuse”), and the “candlers” (the scholars of the 12th century Japanese art of predicting the price of rice).
    4. Overall, the mood has been tense and sour, despite the holiday season.


    • Wanderer, Great way to summarize the proceedings . I guess the old adage is quite true in your case, Wanderer. “Not all those who wander are lost.”


    • fxaprendiz says:

      We gunnies are on a break, as currently there are no geometrical (harmonic) patterns currently that are worth talking about =)


    • allen kimble says:

      LMAO!!! Very Fiunny!


    • travis01 says:

      The Merge is coming, I have an Individual immunity and a hidden idol, and some haven’t showered in 36 days.


    • Hi wanderer….I am a strong advocate of OEW. I like to think of my posts additional supporting evidence for the OEW wave labeling, from a different technical perspective. Speaking for myself, as a DH disciple, my goal is to “alert all/share my thinking” with my posts as we trade through this decline. I use, for lack of a better term, the “DH algorithm”, which in this market, hopefully, keeps me/us out of being in the wrong trend, until we have visibility that a more substantial counter trend rally, at a minimum, is at hand. Even Tony C., is unsure of the wave count and has offered some options until the market makes it’s intentions more well known.

      For example, If SPX is completing intermediate wave “a”, Hopefully, it will be around one of Tony C. pivots. I then will second his call by using this computer algorithm….the entry will break a DAILY 61.8% SHORT…that will be my signal to enter a swing trade for intermediate wave “b”….and phil, travis, gary or I, will post this when it happens.

      Ditto for intermediate wave “c” of major wave 2.

      Hope this clarifies my rational for posting.


    • retiree247 says:

      gunnies? seriously pal, don’t knock it until you try it. that shark eating crab has made me a lot of money over the last couple of years!


    • Page says:

      HA HA HA ….. Good way to end the week. 😀


    • Valerie wapiti says:

      That was great. Great. And truthfully, I would relish fewer kisses and opera links. Enough homey sweet. This is a financial blog. Why the opera post clutter?


      • Valerie wapiti says:

        I like ya Fiona. You walk your talk. Just tone down the cutesy stuff. What if all of us posted music vids each day after day after day. Clutter.


        • fionamargaret says:

          Valerie, there used to be about a dozen of us, a small group who worked together.
          Then I offered some of the musings of people who know me in my other life….stuff that normally others would not have access to. and included a video (usually a classical piece of music which I had played and knew a little about.).
          Anyways to cut a long story short, the blog became more and more popular, and Tony thought it a good idea to maintain the format which he had backed from the beginning.
          Now we are being copied, so we must be doing something right.

          Personally I find it more annoying to have multitudes of blue boxes every weekend with a “to the moon” message, then a contrary point of view. Always a winner.
          And then there is the belittling of certain members.
          If you knew the history….he was adamant the market was going to go down even although the sequence said to 2185 and that was when Tony was blamed for a mistake, but was basically led into it, but Tony being Tony took the fall for it.

          Anyways I appreciate your feedback Valerie.


    • Jimmy Kimmel called……. you’re late for work……again !


  8. travis01 says:

    Still have 3 also…
    Here is my invite link:


  9. millswing says:

    Here are some more Initiative Q invites if anyone needs one.

    Here is my invite link:
    This link will stop working once I’m out of invites. Let me know after you registered, because I need to verify you on my end.


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