SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW -1
The first three days of the week displayed Asian markets losing 0.8%, and European markets losing 0.5%. The SPX started the week at 2736, sold off to 2681 on Monday, gapped down to 2633, and then 2632 on Tuesday. Then Wednesday had a gap up opening carrying the SPX to 2671, before an afternoon pullback ended the day at 2650. This is not exactly what we had planned in the weekend update. This week, for the first time in many weeks, the market has deviated from the pattern we had been tracking.
Yesterday the NDX/NAZ made lower lows for their downtrends. While the SPX/DOW have not, we were not expecting that. This suggests their Intermediate wave A downtrends are continuing. Which also suggests the SPX/DOW may follow in an extended downtrend. Hard to pinpoint at the moment what lies immediately ahead. But we did notice that the NAZ, and only the NAZ, appears to have done five waves down from its bull market high. The other three indices are all in a-b-c mode. If this is the case it might help us identify the bear market low as it is unfolding. Short term support is at the 2632 and 2594 pivots, with resistance at the 2656 and 2731 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day nearly at oversold. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Friday the markets close at 1pm.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: downtrend probable