Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening, DOW +545

For the first three days of the week Asian markets lost 0.8%, and European markets gained 0.5%. US elections ended in a split decision. The Democrats took control of the House, and the Republicans maintained control of the Senate. The market anticipated and obviously liked the result. After last Friday’s pullback low to SPX 2700 the market has soared. It closed at SPX 2723 on Friday, SPX 2738 on Monday, SPX 2755 on Tuesday, and SPX 2814 on Wednesday after hitting 2815. Quite a rally in just a few days.

Out short term count remains the same. From the Int. a low at SPX 2604 in late October, the market has rallied in a zigzag to SPX 2757. Pulled back to SPX 2700. And has now rallied to SPX 2815. Our initial resistance levels for this entire advance were: 2773, 2812, and possibly a little bump over the mid-October 2817 high. With the first two already accomplished the third appears to be next. There is also the possibility of this C wave equaling the A wave (2604-2757), which would occur at SPX 2853. Between these Fibonacci levels, and the OEW pivots, this rally should run into resistance in the coming days. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend

LONG TERM: probable downtrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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318 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPX ~ No Change ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/duYYmV9n/
    CL ~ Headed for YPP Test, Maybe Lower! ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/O0icRcUg/

  2. Jack kendo says:

    blackjak100
    Re: possible failed flat to complete wave int iv @ 2604

    I told you int iv was a failed flat on 10/29, on the day of 2604 bottom.
    “4 is running”, meaning running flat. Not the expanding flat you were expecting for.

    blackjak100 says:
    October 29, 2018 at 5:00 pm
    Still no panic and not oversold…tomorrow could be really interesting

    Jack kendo says:
    October 29, 2018 at 5:27 pm
    4 is running, not expanding, that was what I wanted to say.
    Look at the volume last 15m.

    blackjak100 says:
    October 30, 2018 at 5:43 am
    Have no idea what you’re talking about

    • blackjak100 says:

      Still need confirmation and we don’t have it. key overlap at 2757 or does the market continue to impulse and we get 5 waves up from 2604. ABC=1-2-3 until it doesnt

      • Jack kendo says:

        Jack kendo says:
        November 3, 2018 at 5:50 pm
        Is this wave 4 count probable? Anything wrong with this count?
        Both wave 2 and 4 bottomed at the red parallel channel, and at the final week of October of the four year presidential cycle.

        or

        • blackjak100 says:

          Yes, that is my count with running flat TBD, but I’m now leaning the running flat scenario. Wave 3=2.618*wave 1 almost to cent

          • Jack kendo says:

            The big mess is from 10/17’s 2816.94 down to 10/29’s 2603.54.

            From 2940.91 down to 10/11’s 2710.51 is apparent impulsive, fast and furious.
            People calling that either wave 1 or wave a.
            And calling 10/17’s 2816.94 wave 2 or wave b.

            From 10/17’s 2816.94 down to 10/29’s 2603.54
            People calling that wave 3, 4, 5 all together, or wave c.
            But, imho, it can not be wave 3, 4, 5 all together, or can not be wave c.
            it’s a big mess, much less impulsive than down to 10/11’s 2710.51.
            calling wave 3 inside that time frame, or wave c just simply does not seem right.
            Wave 3 or wave c always very or most impulsive, not a mess like that.

            Any thought about that?

            cheers!

            • blackjak100 says:

              The entire C wave would be counted as a contracting ED from 2940 which meets all the rules but not guidelines. If you’re familiar with Trader Joe’s website, he has it counted that way but as a LD since he thinks 2940 is a major top. I gave him a lot of reasons and evidence as to why the major top is likely not in as he says, but he wants nothing to do with it.

              • Jack kendo says:

                I am not familiar with Trader Joe’s website. A subscription?
                As you said, the entire C wave can be a contracting ED, but also can be a LD.
                What’s more important is how you count the waves from Apr low to Oct high. Is it a “B” wave or 5 waves completion? That will affect the down part as an ED or a LD.

              • Jack kendo says:

                And what’s your major reasons and evidence as to why the major top is likely not in?
                If you care to share, we can discuss. I might have some ideas.

              • fionamargaret says:

                Jack, here is the link to Trader Joe’s site.
                He oft makes unflattering comments about other EW sites, that I personally find unprofessional….

                http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

  3. CampFreddie says:

    I think Trump maybe right on this … “the Fed is loco”

    • phil1247 says:

      freddy … come on ..
      . you know the fed only does what the market tells it to do

      • Page says:

        Nope. Market is clearly sending signals to Fed STOP don’t mess it up but they have no plan to stop, market sees 6-9 months ahead and Fed sees what’s going on today. Fed is preparing for recession and they know it is coming in 2nd half of 2019.

        • mcgcapital says:

          The problem is the fed aren’t going to care about what the market is saying whilever SPX is down only 5% from the ATH. They have the dual mandate on inflation and unemployment and that’s it, only things that are considered as threatening to the outlook for inflation or unemployment are considered. So the stock market would have to drop a lot to impact their decision making process.

          The issue is, they basically exported easy monetary policy across the world post 2009 and now they are normalising it puts them at odds with other central banks. Plus on top of that, lots of EM countries borrowed at dirt cheap interest rates in hard currency (USD). So when liquidity gets withdrawn like now, the dollar is up, and that debt is no longer cheap in local currency terms for those countries. So effectively, QE worked and boosted growth globally, but debt levels increased exponentially. And QT will kill growth.. starts with countries outside the US and then spreads. With globalisation the US is too intertwined to avoid it.

          The alternative would be to carry on with the easy money forever type policy. That would buy time but eventually that would cause the US economy to overheat and you’d see inflation, so rates go up anyway. The issue is and always has been the debt here. It’s inevitable there’s a problem down the line as you can’t square the Vickie without debt being written down somewhere and that means asset price falls

        • tommyboys says:

          Fed can only follow global bond market NOT stock market

    • Mr. Freddie,
      You are a very good trader.I am convinced of that.
      But please don’t intermix content (stock market stuff, with whatever else).
      Fact is the FED does not set 30 year rates, which are now soaring.

      Somebody else is doing that, not any central bank.
      And there are huge ramifications to the 30 year rising.
      We have to deal with.
      GLTA

    • The Fed is doing exactly what it should be doing. They see the inflation rate and are acting accordingly. They are nowhere near a “neutral” rate yet, as stated by Jerome Powell on Oct. 3rd.

    • tommyboys says:

      Looks like it Fred

  4. CampFreddie says:

    Bears … time to give it up 🙂

  5. Hi
    one more wave up and it will start to appear bullish,thanks
    https://invst.ly/95asg
    https://invst.ly/95a-7

  6. fxaprendiz says:

    Ok it seems 2794 will be the low for today. I went long at 2798 looking for a go at the 2835 pivot in what may be a small wave 5 off the 2700 low and up wave. SL at 2790 as the bottom of the range is much lower and I don’t want to risk more on this trade. My SL gets taken out then I’ll re-enter long at lower levels, as long as they are still within the wider 2772-2870 range.

    • Trader Sal says:

      B might have ended today. C down might have started. Perhaps an orderly selldown may ensue?

      • fxaprendiz says:

        The only way for the wave B to be done at the 0.618 fib level (2812) is if the wave of higher degree of which is part is a zigzag, and for that, the previous wave A (2942-2603) needs to be a 5 wave affair. I’m counting that as only 3 waves, although some people see it a a 5-wave leading diagonal.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Since when are C waves orderly sell downs? Did I miss something?

  7. Edward Disney says:

    It looks to me like a rounding top setting up an island reversal gap down.

  8. fionamargaret says:

    2785 was my suggestion yesterday….
    $WTIC (oil) down to 48…
    DWT (short oil)….up to 15.25

    • fionamargaret says:

      …and TBT to 51…

    • allen kimble says:

      still buying TVIX at the close Fiona? still blows my mind you have no idea about ETN’s?

      • fionamargaret says:

        I don’t buy TVIX at close. If I use it as a hedge I only use during the day, but never keep overnight.
        I hope you are doing well x

        I shall tell you a story.
        Yes, I approach math differently, but when I was looking for a mathematician who was studying the markets, everyone suggested Tony, knowing my background and his.
        I was assured he thought differently and would totally love (well not quite so effusive) having me around….x

      • fionamargaret says:

        ..oh and Allen, “Manners Maketh the Man”…

  9. lunker1 says:

    Phil is es 2786 still the daily ext long support?

  10. hohoho598 says:

    scottycj1 says:
    November 8, 2018 at 11:25 am

    The market can not push up strongly higher until the FOMC announcement. Everyone is (has) being conditioned to hang on the feds word. The all powerful money changers. They are the financial deities atop the mount…..heed ye the words and drool like Pavlovs dog.

    That’s akin to everyone here salivating on to TC’w words. The huge difference is the FED has money to make things happen. “I feel a count change is in the air”….. maybe I can find a youtube video of a song with those lyrics that nobody will watch.

  11. fxaprendiz says:

    While waiting on the FOMC I worked in a couple charts.
    First let’s take a look at the previous 2 Harmonic patterns.

    The bear Shark could only managed to cause a 0.382 Fib retracement at the end, a second leg down never materialized, and the SPX continued on its way up under the influence of the bigger and more powerful bullish Crab. With price almost having reached the start of the pattern or point X, it can be said most of its reversal work is almost done. It’s time to look at what’s coming next.

    With the new weekly cycle having just started off the 2603 low, the SPX is set to print at least 3-4 weekly candles of its leg up before starting its leg down, and at the current levels the only way it can stay under 2942 is by eating time in a wide range, which is the yellow zone in the chart. Depicted are only a few of the many possible paths the SPX can take within that range, before probably printing a fake out high within the topping zone (red area). This is a relatively “bullish” scenario within an overall bearish long term view, and it can be scrapped if the SPX break the support strip in which case the wave B would take a more complex and tortuous path.

  12. gary61b says:

    Tony from the lows on the spx at 2603.54 (Int. a). would you consider the abc look, Minor or minute structure.

    • tony caldaro says:

      we’re thinking this could be an Int. wave B uptrend

      • gary61b says:

        Yes, but the abc structure I was thinking that minor a ended at 2815 or near the top then minor b hwb yet to come, then minor c up to end int. b….

        • Gary, that seems possible. that means a .618 retrace is down to 2684
          .50 retrace is 2709
          .38 is 2735
          will be interesting to see how it plays out,

          So either that or Still in Int A. Break below 2684 is the key.In the mean time I want a swoosh down

          good luck all

  13. phil1247 says:

    https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p73044918089&a=67199589&r=548

    tony
    the 13 and 34 day ema crossover is about to give a ” buy” signal

    ending the “sell” signal given at the last crossover at the oct plunge

    no caldaro patent on the books yet …… correct?….
    as i head to the U S patent office 😉

  14. blackjak100 says:

    TC, I don’t like the size of the truncation but has anyone in the group mentioned a possible failed flat to complete wave int iv @ 2604? We know truncations/failed patterns can lead to fast moves in the opposite direction…just a thiught

  15. Theodore Lerts says:

    Looking more and more like bullish consolidation to these eyes. Getting ready for explosion higher….As they say, if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em.

  16. scottycj1 says:

    The market can not push up strongly higher until the FOMC announcement. Everyone is (has) being conditioned to hang on the feds word. The all powerful money changers. They are the financial deities atop the mount…..heed ye the words and drool like Pavlovs dog.

  17. kvilia says:

    Phil, page, et al.
    If CL holds on to the current numbers, expecting quite a short covering here. Can’t really take any positions yet technically but think CL is ready to start an uptrend.

    • Page says:

      agree it is extremely oversold but below 60 will easily push to 59-58 (my buy targets) and if it does not hold then say hello to $55 (not expecting this low) 😀
      (pressure will be put on OPEC to cut production so if it stays this low then cut is imminent then back to $80s)

      • phil1247 says:

        page and kvilia

        60.72 target hit….took some shorts off
        60.36 is next
        plus daily stochastics embedded…
        we are 20 cents from target
        but risk to shorts is up 3 dollars higher
        by waiting for the last few pennies

        remember this slide started at 76.90
        burning the folks
        who were waiting for the last 7 cents to target at 76.97

      • torehund says:

        The FED has to loose it for us to Get it…rates needs to run wild😯

    • phil1247 says:

      possible support at 84
      hasta la vista sco
      see ya guys

  18. blackjak100 says:

    Wave counts are wave counts but I can’t help wonder if the market is/was front running the fed minutes today…maybe taking a more dovish tone??? I’ve seen this movie before and it smells like front running something. Somebody knows something. Maybe it’s nothing maybe it’s something, but we’ll find out shortly.

    • blackjak100 says:

      And I will say there’s nothing strange about the counter trend ralleye to 61.8%, but the speed it took to get there. Has the V shaped look we all have been accustomed to.

  19. H D says:

    Wednesday update
    Posted on October 31, 2018 by tony caldaro

    Today we posted a tentative green Minor wave A at the SPX 2604 low. We posted this label for four reasons. 1. the short term down-100, up-60 pattern has changed. 2. the SPX crossed out 2723 reversal target. 3. the downward expanding diagonal looks complete at the lows. And 4. wave C (213) nearly equals wave A (230). Next we should see a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the entire SPX 2941-2604 decline: SPX 2773 – 2812. With the previous B wave at SPX 2817, the retracement may go a bit higher than 61.8%.

    Judging by the comments nobody even read this.
    You should post the updates in the comment section Tony.

  20. Theodore Lerts says:

    The tools in my trading tool-kit were screaming big “rug pull” potential late last week and into this week. We got a mini rug pull on Friday but that was it. No rug pull commenced this week. The trading tools are giving similar indications now. But it looks like everyone and their uncle are shorting this market right now, including Gartman. That doesn’t sit well with me.

  21. Jack kendo says:

    allen kimble
    An interesting sales man (said, have been doing this for over 30 plus years) at the top.
    So, we should know what to expect next.

    Very bullish on SPX DOW and Gold late Jan 2018, right at the top of all of them!
    Then disappeared for 9 months, now reappear again. 🙂
    cheers!

    January 24, 2018
    SPX was 2853 (topping out) – Then down to 2532 in 12 days.
    Gold was 1365 (topped) – Then down to 1167 this Aug.

    allen kimble says:
    January 24, 2018 at 9:41 pm

    (Gold) true breakout over $1400 in February. $1430-$1440 by End of February is the target based on some Fib levels. It’s coming and should be an eye opener to the world to what is coming down the pike for the US Stock market once this Bubble Pops. The DOW will get to 38,000 to 40,000 by 2019 if not sooner. The great central bank Bubble is here. Enjoy!!!

    One last thing about Gold, miners and the stock market.
    …. As of now everything it’s going up together.

    Having said the above, it would be absolutely insane and foolish to sell the SPX,DOW and the NAZ right now or short. In fact it would be wise to go on leverage on the next tiny pullback. We are in the beginning stages of a blow-off top. I’ve been doing this for over 30 plus years and it’s so obvious the stock market is in a bubble it’s just so clear. You won’t hear anybody talk about it but behind closed doors they are preparing and even profiting from this last stage.

    • allen kimble says:

      I will be the first to say I was 100% wrong on those predictions. Came away from that and learned that it was a blow-off top but not as high as I thought. Gold has been dead money since then and probably will continue until year end.

      However, shorting here and expecting the market to go down now until year end is insane, considering the USA is NOT in an economic recession. A fund manager fueled chase for performance will cause a melt-up till year end. Count on it folks.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Do people actually watch these markets and how they are moving around? Or do they just read studies on seasonality? Because statistically you’ll be hard pressed to find anything that projects out in a bearish way because most of the time the stock market goes up. But that’s 70-80% of the time.. and now could easily be the other 20-30%. Since the blow off top in January, nothing has rallied together. What’s different now? Europe has broken lower and still hasn’t reclaimed any key areas on this bounce this month. The US only seems to have two types of market.. FOMO and panic. This week has been fomo as everyone front runs this mid term seasonality rally.. but it doesn’t mean much at all don’t the longer term, it’s still lower highs. There’s nothing in the charts saying buy for new highs as things stand

        • allen kimble says:

          I sometimes wonder if you even trade real money? You are always negative and skeptical about the markets. Last year, you were the same way. Today and maybe for a few more trading days(until early next week) there might be a consolidation. After that, the market will provide evidence that all time highs are near. Tony will either change his count or stick with the all time highs B wave. In fact the Dow is close to it’s all time highs http://schrts.co/PJ6hYe Money is being put to work in the US markets and people are not putting their money into Europe, this is why there is such a difference.

          • mcgcapital says:

            I’m negative on the end game for this stock market as it’s a bubble inflated by low interest rates and easy money, and I feel it won’t end well. But I respect price.. last year I felt like a pullback could come at any time given extreme overbought readings, it wasn’t a normal market and had a lot to do with the tax cuts anticipation. Then this year we had the blow off in January and nothing has been the same since, not enough liquidity to float all boats.

            You can ignore Europe if you want but history says they don’t usually diverge for long. Said it all summer and then SPX dropped 340 points in a straight line.. so yeah guess the fact that global equities are mostly in long term downtrends is irrelevant. You keep buy and holding lol, will be funny.

            As for my trading, I’ve had the best year I’ve ever had and up more than 7000 FTSE points. My stats are pretty much 50/50 long short. The key to making money trading is playing set ups with stops and taking profits at support/resistance. Views on where the market is heading are secondary by quite some distance. But there are a few clowns on here who refuse to accept that and insist that it’s all about chest beating and being ‘right’ all the time. Oh well, they’re beyond help I guess lol

      • stcoleridge says:

        I just like the way you waited 200 SPX points before your supercilious admonition to those looking to fade.

        • allen kimble says:

          Why would you want to fade this move? Have you looked around? every EW person on the internet is calling for this B wave to end right here or slightly higher than here. Surely you must know that this fact alone is a death sentence for the B wave hypothesis?

          • stcoleridge says:

            I didn’t say i want to fade this move. Just curious as to your timing. The Fredster was right there in the arena calling it real time. You show up days later and 200 points higher telling everyone how it is.

            • allen kimble says:

              Look, just look at history here. While it is no guarantee, Nov-Dec is very bullish, especially in mid term years. That’s what I’m saying. Timing, is buy here or wait for a more of small pullback from today until next week(early in the week)

    • fotis2 says:

      Geez Louise not much goes past you Jack careful what you post here folks LOL…..

    • fionamargaret says:

      ….whew, I am glad Allen is not just making crazy statements to me…stick around Jack.x

  22. kvilia says:

    Trailing CL short (DWT) 4 cents.

  23. fxaprendiz says:

    I already mentioned 2772-2870 as a wide trading range for next weeks, but there may be smaller ranges within it worth a trade.
    I didn’t take a short yesterday as I was planning, as the close was too strong for me to pull the trigger. For today I see potential for SPX to reach Tony’s 2735 pivot, depending how it gets there and the timing, if it’s before or after the FOMC news, I may try a short for a +50 points pullback before the index attempts higher targets.

  24. Jack Lad says:

    So the Fed is actually going to pause… I thought this comes later today…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2018/11/us-dollar-index-dxy.html

    • scottycj1 says:

      Jack
      Trump is his own man……the puppets were who he ran against……let it go !!!!

      • Jack Lad says:

        With you on that, the defense, security & secret systems make up the big ugly bad guy, gone way out of control and bounces every POTUS about like a basketball. Spend 20 times what should suffice. Bully boys of the planet. Threat to peace for self advancement. Dems create more problems than they have any workable solutions for. Out…

  25. allen kimble says:

    The Majority on this forum are expecting a resumption of the downside. I think the more astute reader of the past would see that this is the real “Dennis Gartman”. In short, the sentiment on this board is a warning you are on the wrong side if you agree with them.

    • tis what makes a market. What would you bulls do without us shorts, There would be nobody to squeeze the market higher. Im short from yesterday. Possible 1 more push to 2833 in my opinion. over 2857 i Surrender, but cant imagine that happening.
      Best of luck to all, could be a crazy day. .

    • mcgcapital says:

      It’s the kind of market that favours sideways action in a large range for the rest of the year. The problems that have weighed on it all year aren’t going away so there’s little support for straight line rally type moves. Haven’t had one of those globally all year

    • scottycj1 says:

      Been sayin that for 10 days

        • allen kimble says:

          Kudos to you scotty! If I remember correctly you even talked about all time highs after this past low in October. This type of sentiment against the masses, is the only real way to make money.

          Cheers,

          • fxaprendiz says:

            I wouldn’t say this blog is a good representative of the overall “masses” trading the markets. For the most part, many folks in here are very sophisticated traders/analysts and many times their views go against the “real masses” out there.
            Granted, at times this blog’s overall view coincides with the outside world view, but more often than not there’s always a core that gets it right. The trick is deciding which occasion is it at any given time, hence the need to always do your own DD. Personally I come here to have a “feel” of the overall mood and to contribute when I can, but ultimately my trading decisions are always my own. Basing one’s trading on anybody’s else sentiment can be a costly mistake, imho.

            • phil1247 says:

              fx
              agree

              millions of market participants
              less than a hundred here posting
              drawing any conclusion from this tiny sample
              you may as well flip a coin

              • scottycj1 says:

                The only reason I come here is there are a few (who shall remain nameless) that are 90 % wrong. Whats better than someone whos right alot ? Those that are almost always wrong.

              • allen kimble says:

                exactly! There are some in some kind of a delusional world all to themselves that will come here and spew crash levels, “better get out now”, this is the last few handles boys” etc and yet NOBODY says anything to them but the moment a person comes on here and says anything different than the masses here, this person is put into a box. Obvious double standard here.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      If you are suggesting the best approach is to formulate your own opinion and give some consideration to others, then i agree!

  26. Jack kendo says:

    Tony Thanks
    For reference of 2011 Major 1, is following the correct labeling and color codes?

    cheers!

  27. fxaprendiz says:

    Evaluating this week’s price action it is probable the SPX entered a new trading range which would roughly be 2772-2870, and will remain trading there for some weeks before assuming a direction. I’ll try to play the extremes of that range before assuming a more long term position.
    Ultimately I expect an overshot out of that range to the low 2900s and then a rollover down.
    Still expecting no new ATH for this year. Long term targets lower still on track.

  28. kvilia says:

    Thanks, Tony. I am guessing if 2858 is taken out, SPX to new highs?

  29. CampFreddie says:

    Can we hear from all those who said it’s now a “Sell the rips” market – are we selling this rip or not ?

    • mcgcapital says:

      SPX I’d sell with stop above the overnight high. Will take a lot more than a one day rally to change the bearish structural set ups. Looks like it will be difficult to keep going higher still

    • Lars Bech says:

      CampFreddie. Dont now if you can remember mee. We talked about the Dax. At that time you were long and I was heavily short. Covered the position at 11.200. Iam selling the Dax now again. Next target 10.000 before year end. Maybee I am wrong. Time will tell.

      • CampFreddie says:

        Lars – Yes I do remember you and well done on that great short, I got stopped out at b/e.
        Please feel free to post up your Dax charts and short commentary if you have the time. GL

    • phil1247 says:

      yes i continue to sell every rip………………… in CL freddy 😉

  30. phil1247 says:

    Page

    CL

    still straight down while below 62.41
    sell sell sell

    • kvilia says:

      Phil, on 15 mins you are absolutely right. However if this 58-61 area holds, this thing is going to fly. I think selling is about to end.

      • phil1247 says:

        lots of overlapping
        with loss of downside momentum
        but its straight down till it isnt kv
        40 cents from target but risk is up 3 dollars till target is hit ..

        standing in front of the door
        so i will be pushed out if they decide to squeeze

    • Page says:

      Yes, CL will continue to go down ($58?) until OPEC meeting Dec 6, looks like pressure on them will be to cut production. I sold my UWT but will reenter when CL goes below $60. Very oversold though. 😀

  31. Good morning all.

    Bottom line …50% Ext Long traded and defended (rallied off that level)….
    /ES 2798.75…. bullish above and bearish below. DH chart….

  32. phil1247 says:

    es
    not too happy that 2805 … the BIG target … didnt support on the dip
    but its retesting now

    good place for intial rebuy
    if you sold near 2816 after hours 😉

    • mcgcapital says:

      A strong market would follow through today. This is the point I was trying to make yesterday in that the straight line, strongest part of the rallies seems to be coming at the end of them and not at the start or through the middle like we saw in the past. Let’s see what happens after the US opens and whether it starts to flop back down or if the dip in the futures gets bought

    • phil1247 says:

      straight up above 2799 aggressive extension long

      target 2825

      careful at 2816 to see if BIG short resists after initial break

  33. ninjashade314 says:

    Hi Tony, a silent reader here but really appreciate your updates. After this Major 2 ends then we will be onto the most bullish phase of all: Major 3 of Primary III? Then this bear market should be the last major one for possibly years right? To me it seems that “To infinity and beyond” times is just around the corner…

  34. Sethu N says:

    Tony Thanks for an excellent update. Do you have OEW for Nifty. As per your chart for Nifty Major A completed at 10005. How far Major B which is a counter trend wave can go. Is it 123.6% of Major A. Thanks a lot. TC

  35. jobjas says:

    CL – good entry for a $20 profit

    • Mark Smith says:

      Hi! Your FB chart from summer played out in spades. Very nice call! Did you use the same logic on SPX recently, and think perhaps we’d retraced enough, having (I believe) returned to the 2nd of the prior 4th? That’s what was on my mind as we reached A = C in October.

      • jobjas says:

        Correction by 38 % AND to previous wave 2 of wave 5 of one degree lower – that is roughly a good point of entry after a correction in traditional EW trading.
        I chart the smaller waves within the correction Plus other indicators to pinpoint entry.
        The SPX counts I post here are always the preferred count with alternate counts present.
        and the alternate count is a revisit to 2600 area to complete W4 from Feb 2016 .In both counts I project an ATH to complete 5 waves from 2016 low

        • jobjas says:

          same applies to the above CL chart – correction to wave ii of the expanding diagonal.
          Trading is about risk reward ratio – one can risk $ 1-2 for a $20 reward in this case ( entry 60.80)

  36. hohoho598 says:

    LOL me a hobo…. I can smell a count change shortly, oops spoke out of turn.

    7dayyss says:
    November 7, 2018 at 1:53 pm

    Oh no, it’s the cryptic hobo with his all seeing calls!!!
    Reply

  37. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  38. phil1247 says:

    ESZ18 …………straight up !

    going thru 2805 target was a BIG deal

    it confirms what the uber bullish front run
    at 38 special was telling you and
    shorts were broken as well

    we are going to continue straight up
    while above 2786 DAILY extension long support

  39. blackjak100 says:

    TC, how close to a WROC buy signal?

  40. elmer510 says:

    Thanks to Tony.
    I understand Tony’s comments very well. What I don’t understand are the ones who see new all time high out of a 1 day rally.
    There’ nothing yet on the table which is not in line with Tony’s count. The main change is IM instead of Minor waves. Which leads us to thinking this bear market could last a shorter time than first expected.

  41. We were 100% long coming into today (and have been since Oct 24). When we hit 2810 / 62%, we booked profits during the final 30 minutes and started building our hedge to reduce our exposure. Still long, just not 100%. Better enjoy the 28 handle boys. After the next few days, we may not see it for awhile.

  42. jobjas says:

    SPX to new ATH

  43. Hi,thanks Tony
    WOW! fantastic
    Dow gapped into old daily closing channel
    next target would be lower trendline break daily closing value at ~26,4k or even a backtest to january high at ~26,6k
    https://invst.ly/94rsy
    https://invst.ly/94rym
    https://invst.ly/94rzy

  44. 123 abc says:

    Tony, thank you for the great midweek update.

    Quite a strong b-wave rally in just a few days! With a Santa rally, this could be an irregular b-wave to new all-time highs!

    Q: Any chance this b-wave rally is impulsive (i.e. first chart below)? Does OEW permit an impulsive b-wave rally…?


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