Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2659. After a gap up opening on Monday and run up to SPX 2707 the market sold off to 2604 in the last hour of trading. Then the market started to rally. On Tuesday it rallied to SPX 2674, pulled back to 2641, then gapped up on Wednesday to 2724. After a pullback to SPX 2709 it rallied to 2737 before the close. Another gap up opening on Thursday was sold off to SPX 2709. But the market rallied again and hit SPX 2757 on Friday. After that the market started to pullback. The decline took the SPX to 2700 before it bounced to 2723 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.4%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.2%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI, ISM, plus the trade deficit increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, consumer confidence, the ADP, auto sales, factory orders, payrolls, plus jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting and ISM. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

This week S. Korea joined, Canada, China, Germany, and Spain in confirmed bear markets. Despite the volatility and large price drop the four major US indices have not confirmed bear markets yet. We may not see a bear market confirmation in the US until the bear market is nearly over. That’s what happened in 2016, and is part of the reason we were caught off guard at that low. But one lives and learns how markets respond to uptrend/downtrend confirmations.

We continue to count the five wave movement from the Feb 2016 SPX 1810 low to the Sept/Oct 2018 SPX 2940/41 high as a completed bull market. Major wave 1. Since then we have been expecting a Major 2 bear market to unfold. Typically they do not take long to unfold, a few months, and the decline is usually a modest 15% to 20%. We have tentatively labeled the SPX 2400 with a line, suggesting the maximum downside we’re expecting. Thus far the decline from SPX 2941 to 2604 might have ended the first downtrend, tentatively labeled A. And a potential wave B uptrend is now underway.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

We labeled the Wave A downtrend as an abc: 2711-2817-2604. The first decline, 230 points, was nearly equal to the second decline, 213 points. We noted last weekend we expected a drop to the OEW 2594 pivot, and then expected the market to reverse. The SPX fell to within 3 points of the pivot range on Monday, and then reversed.

If the market did complete the wave A downtrend at that SPX 2604 low, we expect the wave B to be an uptrend that retraces 50% to 61.8% of the entire decline: SPX 2773 – 2812. Since the previous B wave was at SPX 2817 it could move higher. Also, we’re beginning to believe that this first downtrend was indeed an Intermediate wave. It dropped further than we expected, nearly down to the spring lows, for it to be a Minor wave. Plus, the NAZ/NDX declined nearly 15%. If this works out, then we could have just ended Int. A, are rising in Int. B, and should see an Int. C decline to end the bear market by early next year.

SHORT TERM

As noted above the first downtrend, Int. A, dropped from SPX 2941 to 2604. The three retracement levels for an Int. B uptrend: 2712, 2773, and 2812. The market has already traded as high as SPX 2757 on Friday. Since Int. B is a counter-trend rally it should be quite choppy, and probably will take a good deal of time to unfold.

Thus far, in this first rally up from the SPX 2604 low we have: 2674-2641-2729-2709-2737-2709-2757. This looks like a simple zigzag: 2737-2709-2757. The normal downward retracements for this advance would be SPX: 2699, 2681 and 2662. On Friday the market sold off from SPX 2757 to 2700 before bouncing to 2728, and ending at 2723. The Friday low may have been all of the retracement as the hourly RSI is already oversold after the negative divergence at the SPX 2757 high. An equal rally from this 2700 low could push the SPX to 2853. Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher and gained 4.3%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 2.0%.

The DJ World index gained 3.2%, and the NYSE gained 2.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 0.9%.

Crude is in a downtrend as well and lost 6.6%.

Gold is in an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

The USD may be starting a downtrend but gained 0.3%.

BITCOIN

We have been following this very volatile cryptocurrency since its bear market began in late 2017. It has crashed, as it normally does, from $20000 to just under $6000 during 2018. Currently there looks to be a nice wave pattern potentially completing near the lows. It could break either way out of that 6 month triangle. But usually, in this pattern, the breakout is to the upside. This is not a recommendation. Just an observation.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: ISM services at 10am. Tuesday: election day. Wednesday: consumer credit. Thursday: the FOMC statement, and weekly jobless claims. Friday: the PPI, consumer sentiment and wholesale inventories. Best to your week, and get out and vote!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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540 Responses to Weekend update

  1. chrisk44342 says:

    who says there isn’t correlation 🙂 https://invst.ly/94r7u

  2. lunker1 says:

    slight -D on 60min RSI 5 from that little pullback

  3. Page says:

    Is TVIX heading to Zero? it certainly looks like it. May be another reverse split coming?

    • travis01 says:

      Not even close. That’s how vix products work. But a novice look at a chart would tell you to short them to oblivion, yet you would lose via hard to borrow rate. Just short term hedges. I have a love/hate with vix but trade it a ton.

  4. allen kimble says:

    MID TERM seasonality and the similar structure to 2014(the last mid term year)

    Mid term seasonality is usually very bullish once October is over with. Observe 2014 as an analog to what happen the past month, but instead of a Mid October bottom we now have a late October bottom. http://schrts.co/s1Lcee Nevertheless, we should see all time highs in the SPX by end of month and most likely 3000 by the first week of December. This will still be Tony’s “B” wave(as Tony will admit it can still go to all time highs) but why wait it out. Join the heard and buy today, while you still can.

    Cheers,

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Allen To expand on your comments about midterm year seasonality, this leads into the pre election year which is normally very bullish and tends to top out in the 2nd/3rd qtr of that year. Also the 9th year of the decennial cycle shows a tendency for a top in the 2nd/3rd qtr of that year with the next major low of that cycle coming after the turn of the decade. Lastly the 7 yr cycle has been more prominent in the last few repetitions (02,09,16,23?). If this plays out, the middle of 2019 would be the idealized top of this cycle which probably represents the Kitchin cycle. I believe that mid 2019 will be a major high with a major low coming in early 2023. Like everyone here I can & and probably will be wrong.

  5. hohoho598 says:

    I am just waiting for this magical count to get “adjusted” yet again… LOL

  6. scottycj1 says:

    Camp Freddie ????

    You’ve left me the Lone Bull here…I make the most money
    when I’m the only one on the other side.
    Higher to go…………..

  7. tommyboys says:

    VIX really busting down today. Like to see it under 18. Good chance Holly’s “big move” never materializes. Just about all here calling a top right near this 2800 area. Could be – or maybe not – maybe down a little and sideways for a time? Positive seasonals are upon us…

  8. quite the rally from last Monday ups over 200 points in 7.5 trading days, since i have not caught a lot of this rally im just going to add this. I would expect what goes up 200 points in 7.5 trading days will go down even faster. Also since bottoms usually occur around holidays. Would expect C down to end around 11-21 that’s 10 trading days. Last down was 6 down 4 up 8 down 18 days. C wave will take half that time, which means fed day tomorrow could, and should be huge down day.
    last drop was approx 230 down 106 up 213 down. 337 points. AT todays high call it 2802 That makes C equal to A at 2463. Im glad i closed my short yesterday, but im fully loaded again.
    Best of luck

  9. Harp Man says:

    Murrey Math did show 2850’s recent bottom, then 2812 peak. If this is top of Int B, then Int C down to 2500. This area will also provide a 38% bull mkt Fib retracement, maybe the true weekly 4 down. If so, the 5 up could go as high as 3125. Looking at TZA for Int C down, and UBOT for weekly 5 up move.

  10. lml25 says:

    GDX hanging at the 10 and 20d(19.37).Nothing new–SPX up,GDX lower.This is key support for the miners.Later all.

  11. fotis2 says:

    Dems took house wasn’t Market supposed to go down ?

    • lml25 says:

      It did the whole month of October.If the Senate went blue,we’d be looking at SPX 2500 today.

    • scottycj1 says:

      That was expected

    • valunvstr says:

      Market told you exactly what it thinks of last night’s results. Small and mid cap stock badly underperformed and small and mid value really stunk it up. That suggests that the market believes that the pro economic agenda will be halted with a democratic house and such investors are now bidding up stocks that provide growth even in a slower than expected US growth environment. Small and Mid value have heave US exposure. The large caps are secular growth stories that find growth everywhere, not just the US.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Which indices are you looking at to say they badly underperformed? I had Russell 2000 up 1.7% and SPX up 2.2%, wouldn’t call that a bad underperformance. But it probably reflects that the market thinks there will be more checks and balances on the Trump agenda so a less aggressive trade strategy hence large cap outperformance. First reactions are not always the ones that stick

  12. We are at the top of the rising wedge/diagonal channel. Hourly RSI overbought. Anything can happen here. Upside potential is 1% or 2% over the next few days. Downside potential is -10 to -15% over the next month or two.

  13. blackjak100 says:

    Market can go as high as it wants today, but tomorrow and Friday better be decent red days to nullify the strong weekly candle. still seeing nothing to change intermediate view meaning 2475-2523 to complete correction. May change soon but hasn’t yet

  14. quickrick38 says:

    Bonds!

  15. Trader Sal says:

    ES 2801.75 maybe it for this move up potentially.

  16. phil1247 says:

    straight up above es 2791. 5

    see ya tomorrow !

  17. HINT: There is NOTHING in these moves over last month plus to suggest the violent fast swings are over. Carry on!

    • Good luck all. I will be posting my bets somewhere else. In a clean environment with just short descriptive calls. I know it will be hard for me to stick to the script and the likelihood I overstay my welcome is strong. BUT I absolutely “MUST” post my setup and actual bets. Keeps me honest. Ya do whatever works. INTUITIVE visual chart recognition is my thing. Leaving with the most outrageous calls and timely bets. One for MY record book. You could say I am leaving at the peak of my performance. You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, know when to walk away. And know when to run….

  18. Jack kendo says:

    2798 pivot, worth a try, short.
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
    Financial sector is down, meaning this rally is not real.

    cheers!

  19. ragnar5 says:

    “Expect the rate hikes to continue. Furthermore, I think you can make an argument that the labor market is close to the point where inflationary pressures will intensify. Something that everyone seems to think can’t happen anymore.”
    https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/

  20. chandra d says:

    Time wise still min 3to 4 days to lure all bulls before it goes down big don’t short for 3 to 4 days

  21. aahmichael says:

    The DOW has hit its .618 level. NAZ/NDX finally made it HWB. NYMO is at its most extreme overbought levels in 2 years. Weekly R1 pivot is at 2785. Today’s rally confirms that the rally from 2604 has been corrective, not impulsive. abcxabc or wxy. The same either way. I see anything above 2792 as a low risk place to get short on a swing/position trade, and corresponds to the 2/27, 3/13, and 6/13 highs. From the Feb low, it basically took 6 months before the market was able to sustain itself above 2800. Should be serious resistance again.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Thanks aah, you have just reinforced my decision to take a short in the 2813-21 area.

    • Jack kendo says:

      contradiction of abcxabc or wxy of your own words.

      aahmichael says:
      November 4, 2018 at 9:24 am
      … That means the 2604-2757 wave subdivded by 7, not 5, which makes it a double zig-zag.

      • aahmichael says:

        If you understood even the most elementary aspects of EW, then you would know there is no contradiction. A double zig-zag qualifies as a wave w. Furthermore, in a reply to you on Monday morning, I said the following:

        aahmichael says:
        November 5, 2018 at 9:58 am
        There is no minimum retracement requirement for an x wave. There is also the possibility that the abc rally from 2709-2757 was a wave b of an expanded flat that ended at 2700

        • Jack kendo says:

          If you know the most basic of EW counting, both SPX and DOW have 5 waves up from Oct 29’s low.

          Also, your statements are wrong with:
          “The DOW has hit its .618 level. NAZ/NDX finally made it HWB.

          So far,
          DOW reached 128 points higher than .618
          NDX is more than HWB.

  22. chandra d says:

    After 15th November to January 16th 2019 mktwill hit 2550 levels

  23. chandra d says:

    My Tuesday long call was doing good square off 50 percent and hold remaining

  24. The profit target for today’s rally is /ES 2796.56….currently trading at 2789. Not calling a top or an interim top, just the next level where equities could pullback a bit. So far, there have been no technical entries into the long this morning. Very frustrating! Violated my rules…. took one scalp trade (based on EW) which was profitable, otherwise just watching equities rally. There are few entries into the long from current levels but they are way down, don’t think we will see those levels trade today. Good luck all.

    • phil1247 says:

      asa
      rogue entry this am
      david didnt have this ?

      • Yep, I had that and one other trader had that as well. I took that trade as my scalp, sold too early because I didn’t like what I was seeing and was going against DH and /VX. I even asked DH about it..just one of those times where DH is bearish and his bias gets in the way. Or more probably…he could simply be a very disciplined trader that sticks to his analysis.

        • phil1247 says:

          i think he is going with the big short that has not broken yet
          i like to keep playing the upside until Ms Market says not to

          as you know we can just keep going straight up
          thru the .618 retrace from the high
          until the larger extension long fails
          by that time people holding short from the lows
          will have seen most of their profits evaporate
          as they have several times before

  25. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX taking out the 0.50 retracement level (2772) has helped to clarify things a lot. It has made some long term counts very unlikely or just plain impossible and left as plausible only a couple ones.

    For starters, the straight impulse count down to 2500 has been eliminated. The next one that may be eliminated is the zigzag (red path) to the 2500-2400 area, which is still possible but it would need to pretty much start its wave C today or tomorrow with a limit at 2813-21. That, and it would also need to take at least 17 weeks (because of weekly cycles) to complete, which is doubtful for a swift wave C down.
    So we are left with what it has always been my preferred count, a complex correction taking more than 6 months to complete. One of the shapes it can take is a flat-x-zigzag. The flat is what we are in the middle of right now. With respect to it, these are the 2 possible paths it may take now:

    Minute wave b of the flat can be a flat in turn or a zigzag. I am favoring the flat now (blue path off the 2603 low) which would have a deeper subwave b than the zigzag and end up with a lower subwave c. The alternative (the zigzag), the dotted green path, would need the SPX to start its subwave b soon or it has the risk of being eliminated as viable, whereas the blue path has more leeway in time and price levels to play out. There’s also the alternative red line which is part of the zigzag of bigger degree in the first chart, but as mentioned I doubt that one will play out.
    The green and red paths pretty much get eliminated if they go much higher than the 2813-21 area, while the blue path’s subwave a can go still higher, up to 2870, but I’d rather not see it doing that as I’m planning on going short in the 2813-21 area =)

  26. fionamargaret says:

    DWT to 15.25……$WTIC (oil) to 50
    TBT to 51
    TVIX to 103
    xxx

    • fionamargaret says:

      ….and YINN (long China) to 31…thanks Joseph.x

    • lunker1 says:

      How far underwater is your TVIX now? I understand you eventually think it’ll go to 103 but the knife is falling

      • fionamargaret says:

        I never hold overnight, and I put a bid in to the lowest price in its sequence and wait to be filled.
        I only mention once I am filled.

        • lunker1 says:

          That’s a pretty important caveat you should be posting with your numbers. Also TVIX has been dropping almost every day so you’re buying it every day and taking a loss and then re-buying it the next day and taking a loss?

          • fionamargaret says:

            No, I usually play the moves…only lost once.
            I bought DWT in the 6’s so am up 20+ within the last little while.
            TBT I have had for a couple of weeks, occasionally playing the counter move in TLT.
            BUT with no caveat you would still be well ahead.

            Why do you find the need to harass me….number of posts, how I trade, etc.
            Go play with your friends who only have the same negative energy/outlook as yourself.
            …and I wish you well.

          • CampFreddie says:

            Lunker- I like Fiona, but as you have highlighted her methods do not stand up to scrutiny.

            • lunker1 says:

              Freddy like I said I’m just trying to understand. She posts several tickers every day with really high targets but then she doesn’t hold anything overnight? So then when does she get out and why? When she posts the ticker is that when you take the trade? If I’m not mistaken she’s posted TVIX every day for several days. Isn’t the target of 103 the equivalent of phil’s going to the moon? I thought we frowned on calls like that?

            • fionamargaret says:

              Well I am glad you like me Freddie…the feeling is mutual.
              Something my father taught me…just because you do not understand something, or is strange to your thought process, does not make it wrong, just different
              My dad’s fellow profs.thought it a gift.

              • fionamargaret says:

                …remember they had been used to codebreaking etc., so were open to folks seeing number association and outcomes that might not be visible at first glance…maybe you see that as biased acceptance…

              • mcgcapital says:

                Fiona, I like your posts too and the general contribution to the blog. But would say that when we post if we want people to be able to extract some value from it, it needs to be understandable by a layman. Posts that provide little detail other than saying it’s going up or down but with no context on risk management are worthless as are ones that seem complicated to the point where somebody couldn’t follow it with conviction and be sure that they’re following the process as intended.

                I think with yours when you post about number sequences, it’s hard to follow what all of that means. I must admit I don’t follow a lot of the tickers you post on so don’t have a clue whether the calls are generally accurate or not. But obviously do follow the indices where you 1. Consistently maintained that the sequence was bullish over the last few years until 2609, which was a good call and then 2. Consistently said to short the indices all year once 2609 was exceeded which for the most part was a bad call (but no doubt profitable in October).

                I’m not saying it doesn’t work, just that I can’t understand it. If you understand something you should be able to replicate it on yourself, so it should be the case where we know in advance what needs to happen for you to get a new number sequence, but that’s not clear to me.

                If anything I find it interesting that since you said the positive sequence ended the market has struggled to go higher but hasn’t actually gone down yet to the levels mentioned. But how does it all translate into an actionable trading system? Just reading the posts it read to me as you were shorting continuously from 2550 in April up to 2940 in September. Is that the case or is there more to it than that? When you post ‘short the indices’ what should a trader that is following you do.. does that mean enter a new short, and if so what do you do with the stop, and where do you exit the trades if in profit? I don’t recall seeing you exit on an SPX short for example as the targets are always much further down, and by definition because we keep rallying and never get there, all of those entries are either underwater or stopped out if no profits were taken.

        • kvilia says:

          Fiona, how do you calculate the sequence curious? And how often does it play out for you to pick falling TVIX at the lowest or near price? Thanks!

          • fionamargaret says:

            I use P&F charts, and find the lowest number within the algo being played, and bid on that.
            (Like music you pick up a theme).If indeed (like VXX) it goes lower, then I either sell, and then bid on the lowest number within the new set and trade up, sell, then bid again at the lowest number.
            All the other ideas are simple compared to TVIX or VXX…a regular permutation which if I have a set of data of just EOD pricing for 5-8 years, I can tell you where the stock is headed…with over a 90% success rate.
            I was long from 666 to 2069, the end of my progression, but also like picking stocks
            You work with another method to compare (which I think is a plus), and if you ask me what I think, I tell you. Remember I was stopped out of long oil in the 70’s, but kept my hedge short oil DWT, and when the pattern became the dominant one I kept adding to DWT (which suggests oil down to 50). Ditto for TBT.
            I don’t keep TVIX overnight, and was speaking with Jack about it going to 103, but I would have to check in the morning….I didn’t, and TVIX forms a different sequence every day. (VXX has basically stayed the same). When I had to keep trading TVIX today, I knew something was not right, so yes that is when I mentioned 39.38. I have not examined the pattern in detail, but shall in the morning, with its criteria. I did make money on TVIX as there were enough moves. Like Travis I am a bit of a junkie on TVIX.
            I hope this helps.

    • fionamargaret says:

      TVIX…now we try to get over 39.38….then we have a different ball game ….short the market.
      DWT is doing well (short oil)…oil down to 50, DWT up to 15.25
      TBT short 30 year… higher rates

  27. kvilia says:

    Bye, CL – see you at 60.36.

  28. stan911 says:

    Gaps above 2806-11-13

  29. How have i been doing folks! I have been calling the future moves as if I am a time traveler. This without any real knowledge of EW charting. Add insult to injury I do it with mostly visual pattern recognition. Intuitive is a word i use often. If you rad my many posts you know what i expect. See ya…………

    Stick with your neurotic defense of alternative charts and pretend you have any better clarity. I love my method and have proven on PAPER just how good this method is. Hows my STREAK play?

  30. I posted this bear pennant yesterday.

    Prices had dropped out of the bottom of the pennant yesterday.
    Now today gapped up to the top line of the pennant.
    Looks more like orange juice futures than a stock market.
    And certainly not a bull stock market.

    • phil1247 says:

      what could be more bullish than a market that goes straight up tom?

      • mcgcapital says:

        The structure of the rallies is kind of the opposite to what we’ve seen pre 2018 during the bull market…. when corrections end, strong markets move decisively off the lows and don’t give people time to get on. Then when they run out of steam, they sell off from the high and often have multiple retests of it before going down. That’s similar to what we saw after every drop since 2009. Strong uptrending markets.

        But what’s different here is that when it bottoms, the rallies look nothing special and we chop around not far off the lows. Then you get a straight up rally which I assume is mostly driven by short covering. But the rallies then don’t hold and follow through. On SPX, we’ve had chop off 2600, then a straight up rally from 2660-2760ish which came when bears capitulated on new lows ASAP. Then we gave a big chunk off that back to 2700 as covers get unwound. Then more chop off 2700, and another capitulation straight up rally last night on the election results.

        The market opens up near the highs of the day then chops around for hours and gives it back into the close. It’s just not bullish behaviour. And it’s the same story on the other indices too, FTSE has been following this pattern of behaviour since it topped in May.. always need to watch for an impulsive looking straight up rally to end the counter trend rallies

  31. travis01 says:

    short here at 2780s looking for extensions down to 2731 or 2700 with 2800 stop loss; sat out of the early run from election where the writing was on the wall…missed opportunity

  32. Good morning all…Regarding /ES, DH the next entry into the long at 2766.75 the 50% long (if it trades to that level) and the 61.8% long at 2761.97.
    Bottom line for day and possibly swing traders this morning is 2761.97 …bullish above and “bearish” below.

  33. lml25 says:

    I’m reading some analysis by GS this morning,that economic activity will be capped–therefore the dollar may weaken from a split Congress.Something to watch.The market SHOULD have known this the entire month of October (or earlier) as midterms flip the house ,of the party in power,all the time.Poor discounting mechanism as far as currencies go.That analysis is only good until Powell opens his mouth about rate hikes again.We’ll see.GL all.

  34. phil1247 says:

    CL

    chris

    see why i wanted out of shorts yesterday when agg ext short failed ?

    we just traded 38 special of larger short as i expected at 63.01 😉

  35. fxaprendiz says:

    My SPX 2751 short taken out at 2766 in the overnight session for a small 15 points loss. It was worth a shot.
    What’s next? Still assessing the current situation but at a glance the 2813-2821 and 2870-80 areas look like good zones to try a short for the medium term.

  36. From 2603-2756
    2756-2700
    2700 = A at 2856

    .618 from low 2815. So 2815-2856
    Or the .50 retrace of the move down to 2600 is the 2775 area, which is were we are now. I only use the cash market for my counts, so we could top at any time.

    Good luck all

  37. blackjak100 says:

    Going to open right at the TC 2780 pivot as of now. good PRZ for 2/B

  38. Jack Lad says:

    Wake up for some more of the same with bells on… and the divergence predicts the Fed…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2018/11/us-dollar-index-dxy.html

  39. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE 7130-7140 a decent place to fade the spike up.. lower high, similar pattern to other declines this summer

  40. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony….and everyone xx

    Yes, Michael and Freddie made a demo in 1982, then about 4 years ago, it was re-recorded thanks to the Jackson Estate….and here is the result…quite magical I thought. x

    • fionamargaret says:

    • Jack kendo says:

      Fiona,
      Don’t know if you remember or not, when TVIX was 25, I told you it will be more than double in phases.
      Now, my Price Objective on TVIX is 100
      There are time to day trade, there are time to hold. time, time, time; turn, turn, turn.

      cheers!

      • fionamargaret says:

        Yes I do remember Jack, and funnily enough the permutation at the moment is 103. (at least it was yesterday…I shall check later)…I am still working though somewhat brain-dead.
        Do well…I shall be around sometime x

        • fionamargaret says:

          I am putting together a bit of copy for Armistice Day which is quite endearing… how the British in the early ’40’s could not cover the cost of aeroplanes to take on the Germans and they appealed to the public who had fallen in love with the Spitfire.
          So, as the British were wont to do, had everyone send money to buy a wing, propellor etc.
          It was a huge success, with children sending their pocket money and even night ladies sending 3 pounds sterling (which incidentally was the exact amount they were fined by the police if arrested)….sometimes life is so sweet and tragic, all rolled into one….x

          • If they had only thought to send a squad of buck-toothed night ladies and English cooking to Germany instead, they could have worn out the Germans and won the war without buying spitfires and firing a single shot. All that money for wings and propellers could have gone into a giant, giant statue of Churchill …… standing up on the coast, facing Europe and scowling. 🙂

    • fionamargaret says:

      Fenster I think you will love this….x

  41. My long standing script is still coming together. I still need a spike move tomorrow and for me that is the last day it can occur. 2800 or BUST! Short window for a spike and subsequent drop since seasonality is quickly forcing strong upside currents. In other words, Its Now Or Never. If we hit my target tomorrow I bet BIG. I will wait for the spike upside to capture the drop, and what a drop it should be.

    Excited? Wouldn’t have it any other way. Over a dozen prior bets were anticipated in advance and fell in line. This streak is one for my record books. I gave tomorrow deadline over a week ago and it sure looks good.

    Since the sharp reversals are coming to an end I will get greedy here and bet much more than in the past. All this presupposes a 50 SPX point move tomorrow. Kind of crazy.

    • I thought any talk of EXTERNAL events was nonsense on this sacred board? EW is preordained. Anyway the election is EXACTLY as expected. If anything the blue wave was a smaller one than many thought. House capture had odds of over 80% for the Dems and that much for the Republicans to hold or gain in the Senate. In other words, a yawner. No surprises and market love boring predictable. BIG DAY TOMORROW ON THE UPSIDE! Count on IT!

      • To be precise I am looking for the DOW to move 550 points to 26,178. I need to see that happen tomorrow. But hey, I am just a wandering jew with no technical home. You can continue to be all over the map using EW as your home, while I wander without one but manage to find the path anyway. Very excited simply because i can ENVISION the move tomorrow. Pent up angst and strong belief the worse is behind us going into holiday cheer. What a setup to capture the most one sided mistake.

        EXCITED now but will show my bipolar side if the market refuses to obey.

        • kceconomics says:

          Gary – you style of communicating is not endearing. But this call, in advance for 26178 was off the scale. If this holds as the high then we would all welcome an update from the financial markets time traveller

  42. chrisk44342 says:

    .50 on the nose. dems take house. bulls beware. taking a short
    position here and will monitor

  43. tommyboys says:

    Futs going nuts up & down on steroids. Million scenarios no matter how election shakes out. Reps control may be seen as bullish on economy which promotes higher rates – a negative for equities – & vice-versa if Dems control etc…🤔🤔🤔

  44. travis01 says:

    Hit 2757 high of last week. How you feel about a retrace down now or run up to 2780?

  45. Trader Sal says:

    Tony

    If es 2765 (which is 10 pts away) is where this turns around I will be leaning towards a w3 down after. Previous high is just a hair width higher. Will have to see if that holds. At any rate this move up somehow does not look like a ‘b’ of B. I might be wrong though.

  46. It’s the fed more then the election.election will only matter if dems or rep control both houses.

  47. Bud Fox says:

    Quick update…agree with Tony C’s SP count,, but — risk is we drop back down to that
    2603 low…retest at min is what i am looking for,now or later…Bud still in cash.

  48. elmer510 says:

    If republicans do an okay elections, we will see a very fine day at the stockmarket tomorrow. They should at least still have majority in Senate. A lot of Sanders-type democrats will have the opposite effect.
    IM B will go higher.

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