Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening as rally continues, DOW +241

The first three days of the week display Asian markets up 2.7%, and European markets up 3.1%. US markets started the week at SPX 2659. Gapped up on Monday, hit SPX 2707, then did another 100-point selloff to 2604. If the market continues its 100-points drops, followed by 60+ point rallies, the 2594 pivot could be next and last for now. After that the market rallied into the close Monday, rallied again on Tuesday, then gapped up again on Wednesday hitting SPX 2737. Biggest rally (2604-2737) since the downtrend began.

Today we posted a tentative green Minor wave A at the SPX 2604 low. We posted this label for four reasons. 1. the short term down-100, up-60 pattern has changed. 2. the SPX crossed out 2723 reversal target. 3. the downward expanding diagonal looks complete at the lows. And 4. wave C (213) nearly equals wave A (230). Next we should see a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the entire SPX 2941-2604 decline: SPX 2773 – 2812. With the previous B wave at SPX 2817, the retracement may go a bit higher than 61.8%.

Short term support is at the 2656 and 2632 pivots, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots. Short term momentum finally reached overbought after a huge double positive divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable


About tony caldaro

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379 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. chandra d says:

    My Tuesday long call was doing good square 50 percent here and hold remaining

  2. Theodore Lerts says:

    Bear stop runs blown out: check. Bulls all aboard: check. Fomo elevator overflowing: check.

    Get ready folks.

  3. the30dayrule says:

    A big thank you to Tony Caldaro and his team for regurarly posting their views. I dont have such a long term view, 30days is my constraint and minimum target, I’m inclined to see the sell-off as a 1/A, and waiting to see how deep this rebound will go, and what final shape.. the market never gives too many clues at an early stage of a new move.. a zig-zag would be almost clichè but that’s what I’d go for as it is… next week with mid term elections and the new moon we’ll see what changes… overall up to the 61.2% retracement is my standard assumption.. the one thing I would rule out is a quick re-visit to the 2603 low… in time we’ll get there.. but rebound first… some of my views are expressed here for those who care

  4. vivelaamo says:

    I see Holly still trolling the blog.

    • Had you taken my trolling advice you too would be up hundreds of thousands. too bad bias and obstinate rigid thinking hold you back. BTW, just look at my TIMELY calls right before the BIG SWOOSH….. BTW even a child can look at these posts, register the timestamps, and say WOW, what a bunch of great calls. If that’s what TROLLING is then bring so more on board. I must conclude October wasn’t a great month for ya. just a hunch. But with the new alternate reality you must have done exceedingly well and I must have lost a ton even with my timely posts.

  5. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Trump must know exactly when to tweet. LMAO
    ES ~ Virtual Pivot Play 😉 ~

  6. quickrick38 says:

    For this ‘b’ of ‘B’ I’m looking for a 61.8 or near 2666. Next target for the ‘C’ would then be 2828ES.

  7. elmer510 says:

    We are now watching at SPX where Minor B have finished minute a of B, and minute b of B is underway or possibly finished at 2700 which is close to 38,2% retrace of Minute a., in fact 37%.
    IF so we should see an increase above 2756 to end Minor B. Perhaps at 2772 or at 2812.

  8. I just got home and peaked. I have no ability to bet today and too freakin bad. I would have placed those CALLS when we were 30 SPX points lower. I am still on that streak play of mine.

    I will be showing you my next few bets but after that you folks are on your own. Since I hopefully can start betting early Monday I will probably do so. I hope the futures don’t catch the train out of the station before the open. Now more confident since we got that wave 2 retrace and it matches proportionally what we saw on 10/15. Since first move up from 10/29 took 3 days before this retrace, the next and final move should not exceed that 3 day stretch. It also most likely means we get the final drop in the 255 area (or lower) soon after that.

    All this is predicated on the notion that we start out on MONDAY on a positive note. I will be betting at open if we do see a positive start. My target to shoot for is 2800.

    • As you can tell I am pretty darn excited. This is approaching the longest win streak I have had. This one has already proven to be most profitable given the fact that I am betting at double my past rate. I will continue to do so till it fails. the symmetry on the daily charts for SPX is a marvel. I hope it lasts for 2 more big swings.

      I was afraid the sharp fast move was coming to an end. So far its holding up nicely. In blackjack terms you have 2 aces or 1 ace and the other card is a 1,2,3,4, or 5. the dealer has 6 showing. You have to double up or even triple up. These moves today demand it even if proven wrong. Take advantage of these fast swings. My 30 plus years of advise there. Most fear these moves but it’s a psychological barrier. Most pick a side and adamantly stick to it. With these fast moves you must predetermine your targets and where you must reverse course BEFORE HAND. That’s why my neurotic rambling sometimes seem to make no sense.

      My only fear is this move gets out of hand in the futures market before open on Monday. if it has a strong premarket drop I step aside. I love being IN THE ZONE!

      • mcgcapital says:

        A lot of what you’ve just written is the opposite of good trading. Good trading is boring and mechanical, not exciting. On leverage you should keep it consistent or incrementally increase it. That way when you hit some losers you keep most of your gains and live to build another day.

        And you really don’t pick where the markets going before it does… if you want to make money, you identify set ups, enter trades with a stop loss around it, then on your winners you take profits when it loses momentum and reverses the other way. That’s a reactive process not predictive.

        As for your ‘win streak’, you were calling for a huge rally to 2800 today only yesterday so guessing you’re only counting ones that go where you say in this streak and ignoring the rest?

        • You write like you have been doing this for decades.
          But, I think I read, that you are somewhat new to this.
          You have a very bright future.
          Please keep posting.

          • Michael Wiseman says:

            mcg was the intended recipient of my comment.

          • If ya don’t know me why post some silly comment? Just look at all MY posts from the ones that TONY has available. Match them up to dates and time stamps of actual events. have fun. I have been playing the market LONGER than most here. I was into everything growing up. I am retired and have the luxury of playing the market when I want. I am a mega-bear for future prospects but love the action both ways. I prefer bear moves simply because they are usually faster and more profitable. I am a liberal and don’t mind making money in upswings as well as downswings. Us liberals are empathetic to both. That was a joke by the way. I already CASHED in on the wild moves. Gravy from here ion out. I can afford to be cocky.

            Lets see what MONDAY brings!

        • Michael Wiseman says:

          Good response.

        • I have already made over 300K since the beginning of October. I have not only made the money if you actually read my posts you would know when I entered, why I entered, what I expected immediately and in the near future. I can change my position easily if the market dictates it. In other words I am not bound by any notion of “proving” a silly preordained system. I whopped most here because they insisted on following a predetermined path and was very late acknowledging that change. I am living proof that MY method has a better track record (at times like this) than any other system out there. I used to listen to the radio while the market was open for decades. I had a job that allowed me to do this. I have developed an “intuitive” sense whether you want to believe it or not.

          I was shouting the 2016 bullish chant while TONY and the crew saw the end of the world. I went it totally alone based on no EW chart whatsoever. I would LOVE to prove my point by posting REAL TIME my bets. This win streak has been percentage wise the best I ever did. In money terms it is matching my other 2 streak plays. if we last thru a 2800 rally and a drop to 2550’s in the next week or so I will easily surpass all prior bets. I called todays move well before the market opened. Just look at my posts.

          I think I can get excited and NOT listen to others when they REFUSE to prove their worth. I am not ashamed to get help and change my bets if it will help my profitability, but so far that’s not been the case. I think my streak will be over soon simply because the violent easily defined and recognizable moves will be over soon.

          MY visual recognition pattern has outperformed all others during this crazy swings. I have the posts HERE with time stamps that can’t be altered. if my bets go astray from here on out I don’t give a shit. I already made my money and NOTHING can change that. That’s why I am EXCITED. betting with huge gains.

          I do love to ramble. My thoughts go a mile a minute. the system analyst in me.

          • Michael Wiseman says:

            Ha. OK. A shame Lemon 714’s aren’t around any longer. It’s Friday, relax. Go listen to some Floyd or Yes. Peace.

          • mcgcapital says:

            You didn’t ‘whoop’ everyone here, lots of us have had a good October.. and some of us made good money in the volatility in Q1 and kept making money in Q2 and Q3 when conditions changed somewhat because we have discipline, consistency and adaptability. You’ve already previously admitted you gave all of your Q1 profits back as you always look for large moves at all times even if they aren’t there on the basis of whatever Trump’s doing.

            There’s no point in making money if you can’t keep hold of it, and if you ‘bet’ as you do with a huge ego you’ll give back your recent profits too. Need to be humble. Talking $ amounts is stupid as it’s all relative to account size. $300k is clearly a lot of money to you so best to take it out and spend it before Mr Market takes it back lol

            I don’t get why you have to point out your good trades but never mention the bad ones of which there have been many. Anyone who has to say ‘hey, look at me I’m the best trader’ usually isn’t a good trader at all

          • reddragonleo says:

            What is your targets on Monday? You mentioned that if we open positive we should rally all day. Do you have a target close? I have to say that if this is a smaller C wave up starting (that assumes the smaller B wave down ended at today’s low with the smaller A wave up ending at the open) gets started Monday it could run right into the end of the day on Tuesday and take out the recent 2817 SPX high. This ABC up should then complete the larger B up and setup the larger C down after the election…. which should be ugly. Good calls by the way… thanks.

            • A good number of times my targets coincide with EW but not always. I see 2800 to 2820 as the maximum target. If anyone has followed my calls in October they would know that I prepare for a move, determine the path and if it changes so do I. I am “hoping” for more of the same, fast sharply defined moves. If Monday is starting positive I hope it’s not by more than 10 SPX points. I have already stated the next top, if pattern holds, should not be more than 3 days away (Wed.). My current expectations are as close to TONY’s as they ever have been. He doesn’t call actual moves only targets. it would be out of character for the next move not to be as sharp as the upside from the 29th.

              If I doubt a move I post the doubt. If the market deviates from my assumptions I will also. I can and have changed from betting long shots on Calls to Puts in the same day. I have learnt never to hold onto a position I feel is wrong. That’s where most money is lost, not being able to admit the mistake and actually bet the other way.

              To those that view my style as an aberration or extraordinary good guesses I accept that. I have always gotten excited when I can “see” the moves in advance. It usually only happens during big reversals. So for the bulk of the year I am a coin toss trader. I try to recognize the boring stages and stay away. hard to do.

              • reddragonleo says:

                Thanks…. I’ve thought about this a bit and from a political stand point it would make more sense to me for the market to rally up strongly on Monday and Tuesday then to keep falling in some small B wave pullback like what we had today. So I think that pullback is done and that we’ll go up in a small C wave to complete a larger B up from the recent lows last week.

                This rally should be high enough to shake out all bears and make voters forget about the big drop we’ve had since October 3rd. I know others see Monday and Tuesday as down more but from both a political view and a technical view I just don’t see it. The MACD’s on the daily chart of the SPX are still buried and have just risen from -50 to -30 with this recent rally this week.

                Other periods in the past with similar low reading had a higher bounce before rolling over again hard to revisit or break the low. Most went up to -10 or high… some even tagged a positive reading. So while this rally up for a larger B wave of some degree could be just one large wave I tend to think it’s subdividing into 3 smaller ABC waves up and we just finished the B part down today… leaving the C up to start on Monday and end probably by Tuesday, maybe Wednesday at the latest.

                It could even reach 2850 SPX to make certain that all the bears are put to sleep again, and to take out short from the last bounce high of 2817 on 10/17. Bottom line here is that I agree you that we should start the smaller C up on Monday. I’m not sure about the open but I’d have to think some kind of gap up is likely if this wave count is correct. Thanks for the reply.

  9. gary61b says:

    spx close 2718, they usually don’t park price on a pivot.

  10. kvilia says:

    Last post. Another scenario. Up hwb extension short to 2733, then down to fill the gap for b of B. Should resolve itself on Tue.

  11. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony, bulls and bears.

  12. ultimard says:

    PPT @ work 14:25 EST – 23 points move in 1 min on /ES – @#!WTF@!#, handed me a major loss instead of gains

  13. gary61b says:

    Each hwb is significant to the sub waves as you can see on this 15 minute chart is shows each top as price moves up. so from 2699.5 you can see a abc up to 2728.. now for another abc down then another abc up to finish near the 2733 ish level.

  14. kvilia says:

    Adios muchahos, this market is not for me. See you on Tuesday, hopefully an entry will be more visible. Looking forward to Tony’s updates.

  15. valunvstr says:

    This nothing more than a 2685 gap that needs to close. If last weeks lows are taken out before a meaningful rally it will be modestly lower lows.

    • Anne Day says:

      I have a similar opinion. In this case, modestly lower low means 3-5% lower to me. That is, I expect SPX to stay above 2475.

  16. fionamargaret says:

    down to 2340….

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