SHORT TERM: quiet opening then volatility, DOW -92
The first three days of the week have displayed volatile markets worldwide. Asian markets lost 0.3%, and European markets gained 1.2%. Starting the week at SPX 2767, the US market dropped to 2749 Monday morning, chopped around in a 20-point range, then gapped up and rallied to 2813 Tuesday. Today a flat opening led to a nearly 30-point decline, before a recovery and a higher high at 2817.
While it is still very early in what we expect to be a multi-month bear market. We have started labeling some waves. Last week’s decline to SPX 2711 looks like Minute A of a Minor A downtrend. The rally underway off that low should be Minute B, and we have been expecting 2799, 2826, 2853 or just the 2835 pivot range for B. After that we expect the market to decline again in a Minute C to complete Minor A. That wave could bottom around SPX 2677 or the 2658 pivot range. These are all Fibonacci calculations. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: downtrend probable