Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet opening then volatility, DOW -92

The first three days of the week have displayed volatile markets worldwide. Asian markets lost 0.3%, and European markets gained 1.2%. Starting the week at SPX 2767, the US market dropped to 2749 Monday morning, chopped around in a 20-point range, then gapped up and rallied to 2813 Tuesday. Today a flat opening led to a nearly 30-point decline, before a recovery and a higher high at 2817.

While it is still very early in what we expect to be a multi-month bear market. We have started labeling some waves. Last week’s decline to SPX 2711 looks like Minute A of a Minor A downtrend. The rally underway off that low should be Minute B, and we have been expecting 2799, 2826, 2853 or just the 2835 pivot range for B. After that we expect the market to decline again in a Minute C to complete Minor A. That wave could bottom around SPX 2677 or the 2658 pivot range. These are all Fibonacci calculations. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum is displaying a negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend probable




About tony caldaro

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310 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    I shall post charts at the weekend….meanwhile here is a piece of music I am not familiar with, so if you would like to listen to it with me, that would be lovely….x


  2. elmer510 says:

    In this market I go for Bear-EFTs connected to index. I stay calm with my bears. I remember Tony said – it’s difficult to trade upwards in a falling market and vice versa. Also I remember Tony wrote that he normally would not trade less than Intermediate waves. Well, I guess this time it depends how deep minor A will be. But there’s always some surprising things around, so to sit calm the main direction is a good strategy for me. 2-cent trades are not.

    So my main thing here is Tony’s chart and count. So far it looks very promising.


  3. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony, bull, bears.


  4. Still heavy positioned on the short side with Puts. Monday is the deciding factor to stay short or sell. Tony’s short term count in line with my own expectation. 2650’s was my target for a while and now Tony’s also. Nice to be in sync. Now if only the market would listen.


    • As some have mentioned next week is the start of crash week. It is statistically one of the most negative market action of the whole year. I believe there is a prediction of a low on Monday followed by the rest of week decidedly up. In my mind the only way that can happen is if we get a mini-crash on Monday recovering some of it the rest of week.


    • tommyboys says:

      P/C was 1.3 yesterday close – prolly higher today. Lots of puts actually paid today πŸ€”. Doesn’t bode well for next week…


    • Add fire to political turmoil WTO listens to both EU and China complaint on the 29th of October. Start of world alliance against USA when trump tries to withdraw from WTO.


  5. micky says:

    Thanks all for an interesting and entertaining week.From the incredible calls of our host to sisterly love and tin hats. I also did not know about tourrettes.


  6. kvilia says:

    For all those wise guys with the attitude. DH has at least a week or even two of a free trial. If you want to talk on the subject, get access and listen to his webinars. Besides, I don’t really now who else would actually simulate trading live for $29 bucks a month.
    Have a good weekend.


  7. lml25 says:

    As of this second,market doesn’t look in the mood to crash today.Had its chance ,but we’ll see.


  8. gary61b says:

    spx close 2770


  9. Page says:

    Next week on Monday SPX will start with HUGE gape down. So be prepared some huge volatility.


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