Weekend update

REVIEW

Serious turn of events this week. The week started at SPX 2886. After a gap down opening on Monday the market traded down to SPX 2862. A rally into Tuesday morning turned the SPX (2895) higher for the week. Then after a lower opening on Wednesday the market started to head south in a hurry. After a gap down opening on Thursday the SPX hit 2711. Then it tried to rebound, and even had a huge gap up opening on Friday, to close the week at SPX 2767. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 4.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.50%. Economic reports for the week mostly positive. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, plus jobless claims moved up. On the uptick: import prices, CPI/PPI, and wholesale inventories. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by: the FOMC minutes, Capacity utilization, the NY/Philly FED, and housing. Best to your options expiration week!

LONG TERM: downtrend probably underway

For the past several months we had been warning that the market was probably in its last uptrend of the 2016 bull market. For the past several weeks we have been noting that the NDX/NAZ wave patterns looked complete, and the SPX/DOW might have a bit more work to do to the upside. This week the Tech sector bear market took control of the general market and everything sold off. Scale in around bear market lows. Scale out around bull market highs.

With the SPX/DOW joining the NDX/NAZ in confirmed downtrends, we can now count five waves up from early-2016. This suggests, as we have been noting the technical deterioration, that the Major wave 1 bull market ended at the recent highs. We are now expecting a shallow 15% to 20% bear market lasting several months into next year. Bear markets are often quite volatile. And a rally back to SPX 2900 at some point would not be a surprise. After the expected Major wave 2 bear market ends, the Primary III secular bull market will resume.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

We have noted the NDX/NAZ had been in confirmed downtrends, and probably bear markets, since early October. This week the SPX/DOW joined the growth sector with confirmed downtrends. We had thought the SPX/DOW had a bit more upside to go. Especially with the SPX nearing our 3000+ in 2018+ target, after a 2016 SPX 1810 low. SPX 2941 was the best it could do. Sixty-two percent in about 2.5 years.

With the first downtrend underway of an expected bear market it is a bit difficult to determine, in advance, how this is all going to unfold. In recent years all the selloffs, (2011, 2015/2016, and 2018) have been quite similar. About a 250+ point decline, a 50% retracement, and then a lower low for wave A. In all three cases that was one downtrend. Then an uptrend retracing about 61.8% of that entire decline. This is probably a good general guideline for starters.

SHORT TERM

The one thing we know for sure at this point is that the SPX has completed five waves up from the early-2016 bear market low. And, is now in a confirmed downtrend with the DOW/NDX/NAZ. We can assume the entire decline will correct some portion of the five wave bull market. Works just like a downtrend correcting some portion of the previous 5 wave uptrend. Only this time the five waves was from February 2016 to October 2018.

Thus far the market has dropped from SPX 2941 to 2711, about 230 points. If this is enough for the first rebound. A rally to around the 2835 pivot would appear to be underway. Keep in mind volatility is king right now. The three potential retracements from 2711 are SPX: 2799, 2826 and 2853. Short term support is at 2731 and 2656, with resistance at 2780 and 2798. Short term momentum rose to about neutral after a positive divergence on Thursday. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all lower for a 4.6% loss.

European markets were all lower for a 4.5% loss.

The DJ World index lost 4.3%, and the NYSE lost 3.9%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but gained 0.5% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 4.0%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 1.4%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.6%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: retail sales and NY FED at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am. Tuesday: industrial production and the NAHB. Wednesday: housing starts, building permits and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: jobless claims, Philly FED and leading indicators. Friday: existing home sales and options expiration.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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626 Responses to Weekend update

    • Jack kendo says:

      bulls need follow up to deactivate H.O. otherwise still in effect,
      pay attention to breadth. need a 90% up day, or another 80% up day.
      or need an oew wroc by Friday.
      cheers!

  1. Anthony Saraniti says:

    Strange…. dark pool money (smart money?) was selling all day into today’s rally….

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dppisn-UYAAprkh?format=jpg

    • Rick Ackerman’s proprietary momentum indicator had a ceiling on the Dow 30 at 25,725. it BLEW past that number suggesting we have much more room on the upside. Be careful with just one indicator. Phil might be right.

  2. Anthony Saraniti says:

    At an inflection point….?

  3. Jack kendo says:

    Fiona, good for your tqqq trades.
    bulls are not out of woods yet. stay tune late tonight when it’s quiet. I am watching it closely.
    one of my SPY call +198% in just one day, another +515% in one day.
    not as dramatic as the SPY put I had, up over 1100% in 3 days.
    if those options entered and timed properly, tvix / tqqq just small changes. you might want to consider.

    guess what, check the messages.
    fxaprendiz says:
    October 15, 2018 at 5:21 pm
    fxaprendiz sold out yesterday for 4 points, and phil1247 agreed the sell. that means phil did not buy and held overnight. all for good humor.

    cheers!

    • phil1247 says:

      guess what , check the messages.

      phil almost never buys and holds overnite
      there is no need to
      when you can bag 50 es points during the day
      ready to exit almost all now at 2815 except for a few lotto tix
      dont want to hold overnite …. 🙂

      cheers !

  4. torehund says:

    https://torehund.wordpress.com/2018/10/16/iwm-is-the-whole-complex-an-x-or-1-2/

    the more X es you look for the more you find. 2 years an a Complete large X or 1 and the w-2 bottom just passed ?

  5. phil1247 says:

    ES

    straight up above 2798

  6. Dex T says:

    Anonymous regarding your comment…

    “Dex T the whole world runs on oil huge percentage of electric power comes from fossil fuel…green energy just a pipe dream for now maybe 40 years from now things will change”

    It was a pipe dream 40 years ago, not today. Much sooner than 40 years will see big improvements. Technology brings change and the world is moving off from oil. You can remain stuck in the past.

    Personally, I have already been to a number of dealerships to evaluate electric cars. At the moment they are still too expensive for my tastes but I will be driving one in 2-3 years. I won’t need oil after that.

    • Dex T says:

      And believe what you want but the major auto firms are pulling away from it. You should spend some time reading about their plans for future production.

      Oil is still relatively cheap in the US compared to many other countries where the change will be even more welcome.

    • Anonymous says:

      you make me laugh:) how much oil used to produce electric cars? tires are NOT MADE OF Bamboo:)

      • ttsden says:

        Anon. Get free education here n you ridicule the the good guys. Get a new attitude ma or just Go away n hibernate in your deep hole.

        # DexT. Appreciate your sharing with us. Many thanks

      • Dex T says:

        Not enough to keep the price anywhere close to where it is currently trading.

        I never said it will disappear completely but it’s way overpriced. It will definitely be revisiting the lows of early 2016 and breaking below them.

        Laugh all you want but the major automakers are definitely planning on reducing their oil supply. Who’s going to be buying it in their place?

  7. OBSERVATION. From my post this afternoon, /VX continued to decline into the close, which helped equities to continue to rally. However, /VX is close to it’s 61.8% LONG…. line in the sand ….@17.30. If /VX breaks below this level I expect additional rally. Should /VX test and defend 17.30, I expect equities to decline.

    I belief we are close to the end of this counter trend rally, wave “B”. Historically, the SPX should rally to 2799 (38.1% retrace) to 2826 (50% retrace)…SPX closed at 2809.92. I will trade what the market gives me. The set-up seems too perfect…./VX testing it’s 61.8% LONG and /ES/SPX in the zone of wave “B” retrace.

  8. kvilia says:

    Anybody reads Tony’s update???
    “With the first downtrend underway of an expected bear market it is a bit difficult to determine, in advance, how this is all going to unfold. In recent years all the selloffs, (2011, 2015/2016, and 2018) have been quite similar. About a 250+ point decline, a 50% retracement, and then a lower low for wave A. In all three cases that was one downtrend. Then an uptrend retracing about 61.8% of that entire decline. This is probably a good general guideline for starters.”
    Look for 2825, then 2600 for wave A.

    • Anonymous says:

      how dare you? 🙂 Phil looking for 3K first lol

    • Mark Smith says:

      Did most of the 2825 today. Are there others on this blog that concur with Tony, or do most march to their own drumbeat? (I respect others’ individual thinking/work, and recognize that Tony only stated a “good general guideline for starters”.) If Tony’s correct, the recent bulls will see some daylight tomorrow, and then a vicious C after…

      • Wouldn’t some sort of score for the prognosticators be in order to weed out the strong candidate to follow as opposed to the weak ones? So far Tony’s record, while not giving target and dates on best has had generally firm grip on this years moves. Phil has gotten the daily moves most consistently. Does anyone know who stands out in recent months for getting the hard reversals right?

        Anyone want to set up a score card of peoples expectations against actual events? This will give the viewer a better understanding of the who has been winning on their claims and how often.

    • kvilia says:

      3K is possible if 61.8% line of this retrace is violated. Bears will be toast, and markets will go to all time high. Extension longs must be broken first to confirm this is just a dead cat bounce. Until then – Phil is right.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Cramer gave a little tutorial on VXX and the $SPX and their inverse relationship on CNBC tonight….
        Thank you Jimmy x

        • Fiona, my Doctor and my sophisticated sensibilities won’t allow me to tolerate Cramer. BUT…… Because you, my “Herona” (hero-fiona), have mentioned him in a positive light, I am willing to take another look……

        • On the DAY the SPX hit 666 Cramer went on TV and declared the sky is falling. I remember because I watched his display of naïve emotional capitulation. I knew then that we hit the lows. he is a hack and a promoter. It’s like asking a car salesman if it’s a good time to buy.

  9. Dex T says:

    The 2010 to 2020 period will be the last significant decade for oil bulls seeing these high prices.

    With the major automakers turning away from it and switching production to electric the price is going to decline. IT will easily breach to lows set in early 2016 and find a new trading range in the $10-$30 range

  10. Dex T says:

    “Germany’s car manufacturers face an existential crisis and risk going the way of Britain’s once-mighty car industry within ten years, Volkswagen has warned in the grimmest assessment to date.

    Herbert Diess, the company’s chief executive, said Germany is not ready for the revolutionary effects of the electric vehicle and is under political assault from those challenging the whole concept of car ownership and mobility.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/16/german-car-industry-faces-existential-threat-political-attack/

    • Dex T says:

      Volkswagon CEO knows because the company is moving away from combustion vehicles. Oil’s price is going to collapse. It is way too high.

      Volkswagen is planning for a much faster-than-expected growth of electric vehicles in the next few years, expecting its own output to account for a significant chunk of current sales of EVs in the U.S. and overseas. The automaker has been diverting resources to accommodate what it expects to be a fairly steep acceleration in demand for EVs and intends its ID sub-brand to be an affordable point of entry for first-time EV buyers, in contrast to recent luxury EV efforts by Mercedes, Volkswagen-owned Audi and a handful of other automakers

      Read more: https://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/volkswagen-plans-sell-150000-evs-2020#ixzz5U7cHkc4I

  11. Jack kendo says:

    I am aware most bears are mapping Feb setup like this one:

    but…

    cheers!

  12. Page says:

    This is what I said yesterday, so be prepared 😀

    “Page says:
    October 15, 2018 at 1:47 pm
    Final market flush starts this Wed. and ends next week Tuesday. How far it goes down remains to be seen but will easily go below 2700 to low 2600sh to complete this correction. However, a very powerful rally will start after election.”

    • Tim Waters says:

      Netflix earnings will determine. Consensus is 4.5M new subscribers. Of course, this is just short term. Market direction is down

  13. Kudos to Phil and his apologetic Bullish call for stocks. I hope he made money on the reversal. I have got to stop trying to use past chart similarities to determine move. Since we are in earnings season and Tony did expect the wave to be over we might be experiencing a 2 week straight up move to new all time highs. I say this because earnings is here and I don’t see any lowering of expectation yet. If this is the last wave up it sure coincides nicely to late October/early November where we have had some very dramatic moves. If the last 3 big drops this year isn’t the final dramatic move I can only speculate that it will be greater than those after 5th wave finishes.

    • If this is a typical wave duration from the past 2 that puts it at 12 weeks from the lows. This coincides exactly with the first week of January. Could we be setting up for a dramatic start of year? If the current lows don’t get violated till then I would assume the real fireworks happen right at beginning of 2019. SPX should also get to 3,000 plus by then also.

  14. Anonymous says:

    Phil you deserve credit for this one even though many called for 2820-30 retrace 🙂 now EW gurus will switch from downtrend to uptrend or better ” inflection point” lol all good Fiona I’m with you on TVIX

  15. chandra d says:

    sorry for tony and others if i did wrong aahmichael from now on i wont post i just watch this is the last WORD

    • fionamargaret says:

      …don’t be silly Chandra….just stick to lower case…you cannot be a seer apprentice for 2 days…xx

      • Jack kendo says:

        beware tvix sequence changed from 96 to 28, only one day difference. I won’t pay much attention to those “target” numbers.
        btw, here was a high pole warning last few days.

        cheers!

    • aahmichael says:

      No problem posting, however, unless you give a basis for your market conclusions, no one is going to listen to you.

    • ttsden says:

      Chandra , JB said never say never again! Your posts are breaths of fresh air – short to the point n sweet too. Many think they are some kind of authors with their 300 words.

  16. Jack Lad says:

    Clearly it is the 3rd wave extension underway with the transition wave now complete.
    The SMI arrived at a strong turning point today…
    https://jsecharts.blogspot.com/2018/10/smi-swi20.html

  17. Hi all

    Will fill in for phil….. in a snap shot in time currently, I have a the next 61.8% ext. LONG…line in the sand, for today’s day trading at /ES 2790.32…”bullish” above and “bearish” below that level. I am still of the belief that we are seeing a counter trend rally.
    BTW, the 50% LONG is 2793.75…/ES is currently trading at 2802.50

    I have to run as well, sorry.

    • H D says:

      what will we all do with all the DH guys out today? :mrgreen:

      Pivots and fibs lining up at 2798 (2805max) (.382 back) +(55)

      • fionamargaret says:

        …maybe squeeze the oil shorts…UWT has lots of room to run…up to 57…

        • H D says:

          Hi fiona, 77 is a big number in my book. Looks to be flagging. TBH I’m happy with $0.50 on an oil trade but think it can churn into EOY.

          • fionamargaret says:

            Yes, that is why TVIX is so much fun…find players to up velocity and it switches sequences in a matter of minutes…
            It is pleasant this afternoon HD….x

  18. Dex T says:

    The End of the Gas Station: How Electric Cars Will Transform the Rest Stop

    “With the exponential rise of electric vehicles (EV), aka the “electric revolution”, the approximately 122,500 gas stations in the US are poised for transformation. Combined with alternative fuels entering the market, gas stations are already under enormous pressure to stay relevant. About 3.2 million electric cars were on the roads in 2018, 751,510 of which drive in the US, according to the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW). Accounting for the boom of electric car registrations in 2017 — which rose 55 percent that year alone — electric vehicles could hit 125 million by 2030. ”

    https://www.inverse.com/article/49903-how-electric-cars-shape-gas-stations-of-the-future

    • Dex T says:

      The steady increase is going to kill the oil industry and hurt the auto industry.

      Huge cost savings for consumers when lower priced electric vehicles come out in a few years.

      • Anonymous says:

        “Conventional vehicles today, despite all the hype, represent 99.8 percent of the global vehicle fleet. That means electric vehicles with 0.2 percent of the fleet, only substitute about 30,000 barrels per day of oil equivalent of a total global oil demand of about 100 million barrels.
        “Even if those numbers increase by a factor of 100 over the next couple of decades, they would still remain negligible in the global energy mix.”

        • Dex T says:

          Sure, but the same arguments were made for horses and wagons back in the early 1900s but innovation in the auto industry back then caused them to explode onto the scene.

          Most of the major auto makers are phasing out combustion engines within the next decade so the numbers can expand far more rapidly than a factor of 100 in a very short time.

          Electric vehicles are still too expensive for the average consumer but prices are declining rapidly. When they come close to the same price as oil fueled how many people are going to still going to remain with oil?

          • Despite what you say…..There are still a huge number of horses !
            (I’ll be here all week)

            • Dex T says:

              I am well aware of that but the people, towns, etc… who used them as a means of transportation don’t matter. They are mainly primitive cultures who have little influence on the modern world.

              Electric vehicles are going to replace combustion vehicles and crash the price of oil is what I am driving at.

              • Anonymous says:

                Dex T the whole world runs on oil huge percentage of electric power comes from fossil fuel…green energy just a pipe dream for now maybe 40 years from now things will change

  19. lunker1 says:

    phil if you go back and draw that es retracements from that first spike 12.25 to 65.75 it shows all
    .618 support
    1.236 resistance
    .382 support
    1.236 resistance
    .382 support
    1.618 2798.81 target

  20. Jack kendo says:

    Tony Thanks
    one point away from 2798 pivot, and 38% retrace.
    that’s good enough for the day.

    still early in the week, I am expecting WROC by Friday. Lowry’s already had 90% down(10/11) and 80% down(10/12) day, today is 80% up day, another one 80% or 90% up day will be long term big buy signal. should be easy to get it.
    I am mostly bear in heart, constantly looking for the setup of crash, mostly pre-mature and wrong.
    but when I see it canceled and realized the setup of the “king of the pattern”, and strongest buy indications, that’s huge difference, executes it accordingly. I am talking about the big picture, not one or two day up and down.

    see you late tonight so nobody is chasing, and no need to deal with those negative messages.

    cheers!

  21. lml25 says:

    Avi Gilburt on GDX–FWIW
    Ideal support now resides between 17.70 and 18.25 in the GDX, with resistance at 20-20.90. My primary expectation is that we will test resistance before we break support. Moreover, should resistance hold, it will point us down to 15.25-16.40 region as a potential long-term bottom in the GDX for this two-year long second wave retrace off the 2016 high.
    Alternatively, should we see the GDX break out through the 20.90 level, with strong follow-through over 21.20, that will open the door for the GDX to follow those miners which have likely bottomed, and would signal that the bottom has been struck, and a rally towards the 26-29 region is in progress. It would also mean that we will only see a corrective retrace in the GDX while those miners that have not likely bottomed complete their downside structures to lower lows.
    For now, I have no clear indications that the GDX has bottomed, so my primary perspective is looking for a lower low in the GDX. But, as I have discussed many times in the past, the GDX has been torn between its stronger components and its weaker ones. The question is which will rule the day for the GDX in the coming months, and, for now, I think the weaker ones will keep the GDX below resistance and point us to a lower low in the coming months. But, I would be pleased to be proven wrong on this one, and you know which levels to watch to know how this one will turn out.
    This past week gave us the rally to the minimum target of 20 I was expecting in the GDX. But, the market may not yet be done.

    The main take away for the coming week is that the 19.27 level should now be a trigger to you. As long as we hold over that level, we can still stretch up to the 21 region. Should that occur, then the 20 level becomes major support.

    However, if the market breaks down impulsively below 19.27 from here, or below 20 from the 21 region, then we have our first indication that the market is heading down to lower levels in the coming months.
    LML25:I have absolutely zero confidence in his calls,but there are some perameters of price to keep track of.

  22. chandra d says:

    mkt broke yesterdays high so u should be long until 2835, 2840 TGT min

  23. Simon Rootbeer says:

    Phil, do you happen to have a chart for Oil?

    thanks

  24. Ashley says:

    Beautiful IMPULSE WAVES =)

  25. phil1247 says:

    https://evilspeculator.com/vix-buy-signal-received/

    hunter .. i am sorry if you misunderstood what a VIX buy signal means

    i tried to show in capital letters it is BULLISH for stocks
    ergo bearish for VIX

    evil speculator explains it nicely here

    • hunter says:

      Phil, I am familiar with Evil. Is that you? Thanks for responding. No, I did not buy TVIX, I was confused with your message said VIX buy but BULLISH stock. My signal yesterday called to short VXX. Thanks again for your clarification. Cheers.

  26. phil1247 says:

    Kisshu

    this is what i am using for straight up es now

    • floyd drummer says:

      phil,

      you stacked extensions, …is that to establish an early warning, …the break of the aggressive extension warns a possible break of the primary extension?

  27. lml25 says:

    After Friday didn’t tank,this is what I thought could happen.
    LML25:Nice call.
    LML25:Thanks.

  28. phil1247 says:

    ES

    straight up in extensions above 2770

    enjoy!

  29. stan911 says:

    Gaps below 2754.6-2765.09 spx

  30. torehund says:

    Pessimism is rampant out there in the markets, palpable for sure😅

  31. emuntrader says:

    thought. thinking we are currently in a bearish triangle, but it could break any direction. Still in Cash, but may open a small position. Tight stops as always.

    • emuntrader says:

      Triangle has been invalidated. waiting in Cash. I am sure a preferable trade set-up will come along eventually. Clarity always comes… I’m just not playing the up moves in a Bear Market.

  32. fxaprendiz says:

    I might stop trading for the next 6 months.
    Waves 4 are notoriously difficult to trade, and if this is not just wave C of 4 that started in January 29th, but instead a wave 4 just started at 2942, it can take any shape and last a long time and be really frustrating to read and trade.
    I’m thinking we might have in our hands something similar to the moves on the EUR/USD after the year 2008 top, only at a lower degree.
    I know a lot of money can be made with so many ups and downs over a period of 6-8 months, but it can be lost as well if you don’t get your entries right often enough, especially if you don’t have sufficient time to monitor every single move and reversal.
    I’m still thinking about it. In any case I’ll continue giving my opinion or posting charts even if I don’t trade the moves. Not that it matters much anyway lol.
    Have a great day guys!

  33. phil1247 says:

    VIX buy signal confirmed

    BULLISH for stocks
    premarket VIX broke to new lows further confirming buy signal

    es shorts broken
    possible front run of long from lows at 38 percent retrace

    ES is bullish above 2754
    next target 2778

    lunker …

    you see what is going on here dont you ?

    • Ashley says:

      Im gonna watch the open and maybe go long DIA, been pretty good with at so far and there is a little DIV in case things go horribly wrong LOL I start small, each fib gets bigger as I add…. Can do that great short, gonna try it long, MAYBE =)

    • phil1247 says:

      “What gets to me is once we got our 2785 number on the nose, and we were losing steam enough to perhaps get 2598 on Friday, the gentleman who interrupted the momentum by saying to cover your shorts ”

      lunker ..

      .. you may have seen this post …..

      now do you see the awesome power i possess to move markets
      and stop plunges into the abyss on a dime and reverse es and SPX
      with just a word ?

      “my name is Ozimandias king of kings
      look on my works ye mighty and despair ” 😉

      • mcgcapital says:

        When did it ever look like going to 2598 on Friday? Got nowhere near lol. You can’t make money trading playing for low probability moves continually, have to take what’s on offer each day

        Not sure about a buy signal today, looks like another gap up for selling into as long as we’re under 2780… gap up, make it look bullish, sell off.. futures down, make it look bearish, rally.. rinse repeat until we retest the low, then rally

        • phil1247 says:

          hey mcg … that wasnt me posting that 2598 stuff for friday….
          dont shoot the messenger .. lol

          VIX buy signal in force ….ignore at your own peril
          regards….. OZZY… and i dont mean osbourne 😉

      • fionamargaret says:

        Just because nobody knows you or takes you seriously I would not be bragging about.
        I do.
        You influenced Tony’s group.

    • tommyboys says:

      I don’t. What’s going on?

  34. torehund says:

    Just a funny one, this is over the top😆😆😆

    • chadthundercockthethird says:

      Just replace the globalist Bush’s with Thomas Jefferson and Andrew Jackson and I’d hang it in my living room lol

  35. Jack kendo says:

    the EW count I see (none of the EW counts presented here) should kick off the sustained melt-up rally tomorrow Oct 16. All indicators support the EW counts.
    technical, it’s the reverse of the plunge from Oct 9.

    cheers!

    • Ashley says:

      Perhaps we can hit Tonys target with this??? Can be leading or ending =)

      • Ashley says:

        Cheers!!!!! JK =)

            • Ashley says:

              “You see it’s all clear, we were meant to be here” =)

              NOW this is NOT a jab at Tony, we still don’t know where it’s going but we ARE in a critical spot here and by no means am I ruling out his count, (Im still in cash)….. Just a Bullish alternate I wanted to run by him or anyone else with questions….

              Rules for leading/ending diagonals, same or different than EW and is this a realistic path over the OEW target of 3K?

              And can either a leading or ending diagonal subdivide in a larger degree wave?

              Can be leading or ending it your count from big wave 4 right? yes/no???

              Thanks

    • kceconomics says:

      Hi JK – first time post on this forum. I have however, been a member of Tony’s private group for some time – but have not been active for c. 2 years. What count you got then? Please.

      • Ashley says:

        Were gonna find out SOON =) Either the leading or ending can get to 3000 SPX, The ED got me here but you must admit the Leading diagonal looks good too…..

    • Ashley says:

      Ending or leading? Yes/no???

      • fionamargaret says:

        Now Ashley you do this stuff, not I…..but until $SPX can sustain its breakdown of its support zone and the wave down has completed, there is the possibility of a nasty 2 wave bounce…both sides of the coin, but probabilities in numbers suggest ending…..
        Another thing to watch is how NFLX’s numbers are viewed by the market tomorrow (reaction more than if they beat)… kisses to your crew. x

        • Ashley says:

          Earnings? Blah…. Blah….. It can be made into a leading with Tonys count .) IF wave 1 is 2872.09, It’s bounce or DIE TIME =)

          • Ashley says:

            It’s got expanding ED LOL, there is 1/4 overlap on SPX/DOW/COMPQ,and NDX…. Now all thats missing is the rally =)

          • fionamargaret says:

            Ask the Boss….Tony will answer your question…I warned you I was hopeless at that stuff…….
            What gets to me is once we got our 2785 number on the nose, and we were losing steam enough to perhaps get 2598 on Friday, the gentleman who interrupted the momentum by saying to cover your shorts is one and the same suggesting TVIX goes up with stocks…unbelievable…now who was it that suggested he never really trades…so there’s my beef…(and perhaps others who were doing really nicely with TVIX and the market going down)….x

        • fionamargaret says:

          …..but until $SPX can sustain its breakdown of its support zone and the wave down has completed, there is the possibility of a nasty 2-wave bounce……

  36. jobjas says:

    SSEC – almost there.

  37. chandra d says:

    there will be small bounce from OCT 25 TO NOVEMBER 5 then up to yearend EXTREMELY BEARISH

    • fionamargaret says:

      Now Chandra, I am the resident seer (although I welcome you as an apprentice), but let us examine your insight…..”there will be a small bounce from October25 to November5 (Guy Fawkes Day (my addition))….then up to year’s end…extremely bearish.”
      Both “bounce” and “up” to me suggest higher….yet you suggest “extremely bearish”…..
      There are 2 ways the market can go, but usually the conclusion is a summation of the facts as presented. Maybe just a mistake…??
      Welcome anyways.

  38. chandra d says:

    MY SECOND WARNING FOR BULLS NOVERMBER DECEMBER EXTREMELEY BEARISH FOR S&P THIS IS THE ADVANTAGE OF TIME

  39. chandra d says:

    MKT WILL SPEAK TIME HAS MORE IMPORTANCE OR NOT I WONT ARGUE

  40. torehund says:

    https://torehund.wordpress.com/2018/10/14/peace-out/

    Shanghai stuff, macd hopefully helped sorting out the X-waves

  41. Ashley says:

    Hi Tony, could something like this unfold as a leading diagonal with subdivisions??? Or maybe I need to put down the pipe LOL

  42. maks12 says:

    Does anyone have an update on the housing market in term of wave count?

  43. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks and love to Tony…..and everyone xx

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