Weekend update

REVIEW

Wild week! The SPX started the week at 2914. After a gap up opening Monday, an inside day Tuesday, and another gap up opening on Wednesday, the SPX hit 2940. One point shy of the all-time high. After Wednesday morning’s high it was all downhill from there. By Friday the SPX was trading at 2869. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.5%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.1%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: ISM, monthly payrolls, plus the trade deficit widened. On the uptick: construction spending, auto sales, the ADP, ISM services, factory orders, consumer credit, plus jobless claims and unemployment declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the CPI/PPI and export/import prices. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend weakening

For the past few weeks we have been noting that the four major indices, (SPX, DOW, NDX, NAZ) not only appear to be in their last uptrend of this bull market. But are also getting close to completing, or in some cases may have completed, that uptrend. We noted last weekend that the NDX/NAZ were already in confirmed downtrends. But the SPX/DOW appeared to have more work to do on the upside before entering their downtrends.

This week the DOW made all-time new highs on two consecutive days, falling less than 50 points short of hitting 27,000 for the first time. The SPX rallied to within one point of its 2941 all-time high before retreating. Yet the TRAN and R2K confirmed downtrends this week. As noted we scale into positions during potential bear market bottoms, and scale out during potential bull market tops. But do your own homework and make your own investment decisions.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

We had marked last week that Minor 3 was done at SPX 2941. When the SPX rallied back to 2940, and the DOW was making new highs, for one day we thought Minor 3 might go higher. Then the SPX reversed, along with the rest of the market, and the SPX 2941 level still stands as the Minor 3 high. Minor wave 4, within this Intermediate wave v uptrend, resumed. On Friday the SPX traded down to 2869, for a 72 point drop from the all-time high. We have been projecting Minor wave 4 would drop 60-100 points.

At this point everything seems to fit quite nicely. The SPX displayed daily RSI/MACD divergences at the 2941 Minor wave 3 high. The decline since then has been an a-b-c. With the A wave 38 points and the C wave 71 points thus far. Nearly a 2:1 ratio. Time to start looking for a Minor wave 4 low. Medium term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots.

SHORT TERM

Tricky market lately with all the cross currents. Nothing new for this bull market though. As noted earlier the Minor wave 4 decline displays a C wave nearly double the size of the A wave. Usually a good relationship in a zigzag. The decline has been 72 points, and is within our 60-100 point range. At Friday’s low the daily RSI hit oversold for the first time since Minor wave 2. And Friday’s low was within just a few points of the previous 4th wave at SPX 2864.

Overall this activity looks good for a potential Minor wave 4 low, especially when you add the positive divergence on the hourly chart at the low. Placed a tentative green label at that 2869 low. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly lower and lost 2.2%.

European markets were all lower and lost 2.0%.

The DJ World index lost 1.9%, and the NYSE lost 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and lost 1.0%.

Crude remains in an uptrend and gained 1.5%.

Gold is still in a sluggish uptrend and gained 0.8%.

The USD is also in an uptrend and gained 0.7%.

NEXT WEEK

Wednesday: PPI and wholesale inventories. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the CPI, and the Federal budget. Friday: export/import prices and consumer sentiment. Best to your week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

737 Responses to Weekend update

  1. nickokc says:

    Forget EW forget the waves and tops and bottoms one big factor of the massive slide in Feb and now https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-10-10/stock-prices-drop-buyback-boogeyman-may-have-struck-again

    • mcgcapital says:

      Except the Feb one happened in the second month of the quarter and during earnings season so after the buyback blackout period, while this one coincides with the blackout period. I don’t think it’s a major factor.. the market doesn’t need buybacks to go up and if you look at the data it’s a small % of volume.

      It’s more to do with the fact that globally everything has been breaking lower for months and that the US has been a lone wolf which wasn’t sustainable. People clearly have been buying on the dips on the basis that it makes higher lows… don’t think it’s a coincidence we fully retraced a rally leg and it collapses as losing 2860s on the open yesterday is when the really heavy selling started

      • nickokc says:

        Buyback since financial crises topped 4.4T …and yes US economy is sugar high due to tax cut…now feds tightening and 10 year /30 year high yield are other factors. Give it couple weeks and Normal service will resume wink wink trump and xi will reach a dead just before the mid-term election:)

  2. csonkabull39 says:

    Wave 1 – 2672
    Wave 2 – 2594
    Wave 3 – 2940
    Wave 4 – 2710?
    Wave 5 – Underway?

  3. jobjas says:

    Expecting a 20-25% Bear Market correction

  4. cj32 says:

    Cr. CBZ

  5. blackjak100 says:

    With no weekly NYAD divergence (yes I know there was a daily divergence), it’s very hard to believe this is Major 2 or a beginning of a bear market. They just don’t begin like this with the exception of 1987. Until 2595 is taken out, I think this drop is going to fool a lot of people. With that said, I believe major 4 ended at 2595 as a triangle and then made a perfect ABC where C=1.618A. Large ED in the making? Possibly but will need to see a long Time consuming B of 2 start shortly to buy into it.

  6. phil1247 says:

    FX
    i believe we are both saying the exact same thing
    i have a simplistic ew view of it

    and yours is more detailed
    but they come to the same conclusion
    i am looking for a wave down now to near 2500 spx
    but no lower than 2415 ( .618 extension support)
    then a rally to above 3000
    scroll down a few posts to see my chart

    isnt that what you are saying also ?

    • phil1247 says:

      SPX cannot fall below 2415
      or the high to high extension would fail

      and support would drop to 2091 SPX

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Yes Phil, pretty much.
      I still have a very wide target area, anywhere from 2576 to 2476, and even maybe a downshot to circa 2417, but I see as more probable the 2530-2475ish area.
      Above 3000 afterwards? definitely, maybe to +3500-3600 when all is said and done, in a couple years time.

      • phil1247 says:

        very interesting
        2502 spx is 50 % support level of extension long
        2507 spx is 38% retrace of 1809 to top

        both are inside your probable target zone …
        pretty much right in the middle of it
        2500 is going to be a key area to watch
        if 2590 (38% extension long support) does not hold

        • fxaprendiz says:

          Yep, I know what you mean 😉
          I studied the DH book like 3 months ago, and while it don’t use it to time my entries short term, I have integrated it into my toolbox as a reference and double-checking tool.
          My charts made 3 months ago using DH

          It will be interesting to see if any of this comes to happen in next months and years.
          Cheers!

  7. jhjoyner says:

    Daily VIX 14 RSI at 84. Can certainly go higher

  8. Page says:

    Tomorrow SPX will gain at least 50 points and VIX will go back in hole.

  9. fxaprendiz says:

    imho the EW shapes that better fit this wave C or Y of 4 are an impulse and a zigzag, respectively. In this chart, drawn initially in August, there are 2 zigzags paths and 1 impulse path depicted.

    I have updated it with the 2942 high, and now that the high has stopped moving north, we can start looking for possible targets for the bottom using Fibonacci retracements. The area (yellow rectangle) is still pretty wide, but as SPX keeps making more moves down we’ll be able to narrow the area.
    Of the 2 possible zigzags, the green one has almost been invalidated by this deep price action we had so far. My preferred path now is the impulse (red path) although the second zigzag (blue path) is still a viable alternative.

  10. lml25 says:

    Futes up 10 at this point is always bearish (99%)in the scenario we’re in now.Plus a Friday to look forward to.A third 40 pt down move would give us “Three Black Crows”–first pointed out by me on GDX two years ago at 25.50–a sign of a multi-month top.GDX tried,but never exceeded that number since then.If no plunge tomorrow,MAYBE,a reprieve for equities could be theorized.GL all.

  11. chandra d says:

    When I warned people about fall here all laughed still my tgt hasn’t come 2642 level it has to print that level before 18th october my guess it will hit that 2645 on friday itself

  12. fxaprendiz says:

    The last 2 bearish charts posted in this blog, one in late August the other one in September:

    Stopped posting EW charts as it was tiresome to get some “witty” replies from someone calling them wishful thinking and fantasies. I have always respected everyone’s views and charts even though most of the time I don’t agree with them. It would be nice to receive the same treatment.

    Anyway, switched to bullish for the last 2 weeks due to SPX coming awfully close to my invalidation line (2970) for a higher wave B in an Expanded Flat. Although Price action showed me that my initial view was right. Still plenty of time and points to be made imho on the down side. Will post a more recent chart shortly.

  13. torehund says:

    https://torehund.wordpress.com/2018/10/11/oil-in-a-churn-for-2-weeks/

    Weekly osclillator is positive, daily is not. When a strong and weak wave meet there is interference until both haul in the same direction. Wave 3 up didnt manifest, think its a 2 wave up kind of game. Sundet before sunrise, churn flat to a bit Down and Up expected to shake out bulls and bears.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thought you would be interested in this Tore…and help our life extension sequence….intermittent fasting has produced quite remarkable results….
      https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/oct/06/race-to-kill-killer-zombie-cells-senescent-damaged-ageing-eliminate-research-mice-aubrey-de-grey

      • torehund says:

        I adopted this technique a long time ago, just out of plan laziness. I Dont eat until my stomack is rumbeling. My approach to science is to observe at the highest order and then assume there is a beneficial reason behind every change. Then I attempt to explain it scientifically mixed with the intuition and experience I have gathered throughout life. Molecular science is a bit like day trading, so much uncertainty when applied to higher order patterns. And so many reinforcing and dampening effects at play its easy to Get a bit lost in the forest. We were not created to socialize around 4 planned means a day, when we could Get hold of something eatable back in the primitive days we went hiding and ate in solitude so that no one could rip our food away from us. And we were almost constantly hungry…We died early but were fit to provide for ourselves almost to the bitter end.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I did too Tore….sometimes not voluntarily (thank goodness for boyfriends where I could count on a good meal every so often…they always wondered how I could eat so much).

        Using aboriginals, who had a greater tendency to diabetes, most could manage within a
        short period of time to forego insulin.
        Building a running track and skateboard area, and having the Chief start taking the kids running also contributed to wellness.
        I found the whole article interesting, and some of the companies well worth watching.

        My dad went to conferences with various medical pioneers that I dismissed at the time, though now I wish I had asked more questions…Linus Pauling and Christiaan Barnard.
        And today I was sent more work of Stephen Hawking on black holes and soft hair…..x

        • torehund says:

          We have to live wavelike, starvation/plenty to eat, Cold/warm, poverty/riches, love/hate. Our organisms thrive on fluctuations, it makes us feel alive😉

  14. lunker1 says:

    Tony updated the charts
    We’re in Major 2 kids!

    https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

  15. phil1247 says:

    yes lunker
    looking at the gestalt view
    this can still be a wave 4
    feb drop is A
    3 waves up to recent peak is B
    and now wave C down
    or even a running triangle in progress with the higher B complete now
    the reason i mention this
    is that i have seen this a million times on the 15 minute chart fractal

    you trade the extension ….go back to the top … but dont reach the target 3000+
    then you have risk to retest the extension long
    possibly back to feb low 50% or maybe just to 38% at 2590

    this happened in 2016
    if you remember the severe testing of 1800 spx ext long support at ovals

    something similar is absolutely possible now

  16. Hi,
    possible count for
    S&P
    https://invst.ly/8uma2
    same count used on S&P doesn’t works for the
    DOW
    https://invst.ly/8umh4
    CL
    https://invst.ly/8umjp

  17. mcgcapital says:

    Still sticking to a bear market being around the corner here, Europe has led the way all summer and see no reason to change it. It’s pretty bearish the fact that we’ve fully retraced the rally since March and in some cases gone to fresh lows. The timing surprises me a bit and certainly didn’t expect the rout yesterday. But always said watch what happens when SPX fully retraces a rally leg.. broke 2864 and then this happens. It was a pretty unhealthy rally the whole way up, really choppy and low quality whilst everything else in a clear downtrend. US is underperforming now as the liquidity concentrated there gets unwound.

    Shorter term, we’re at oversold on the RSIs across the board.. usually this means rally coming. What I’ve observed is that you hit oversold and then the rally comes 2-3 days later (today was day 2).. but a lot of damage can be done in that time on the downside before it comes. The best set up for me would be a retest of today’s lows tomorrow then up in a hammer formation afterwards to end the week.

    I think this could be one of the largest bear markets ever seen, on a par with 2008. But as a trader I’m not sure I’d prefer it to a continuation of current conditions.. some of the moves will likely be much less predictable than they have been. Time to double stop loss distance, reduce leverage by 75% and probably increase trade frequency. No holidng for long periods, get a winner and get out, keep building.. otherwise it’s going to be a very difficult time.

  18. lunker1 says:

    Similarities to January/February drop

    then 2873 down 60, up 26, down 246
    now 2940 down 61, up 27, down 184 so far

    -246 = 2649

  19. mcgcapital says:

    Phillipe V – thought your post was fair comment but omitted TC’s comments that Lunker posted about being cautious and scaling out.

    But if you’re going to judge OEW, it has to be against its stated objectives and not whether the wave counts are always right (which they clearly aren’t, it’s just not possible to do every time).

    From what I can gather, Tony has said previously that OEW isn’t for short term trading, it’s for long term trends. He’s also stated that his aim is to scale out near bull market tops and in near bear market bottoms. So I’d assume if he thinks it’s a bull market he’s long, and the positioning only changes at the margin when expecting corrections as by definition, they’re pullbacks in his wider bull market.

    His record on calling bull vs bear markets has been pretty good which is why he has so many readers. I’ve been reading here for about 7 years and for the most part the big calls have been right. To summarise:

    – October 2011- called meaningful bottom, later revised to primary 3 underway.
    – November/Dec 2012 – called market at inflection point from bull vs bear market perspective, so I’d assume he lightened up on longs here, quickly revised to bull market continues (add back to longs).
    – Bullish all of 2013/2014 whilst expecting a primary 4 correction which never appeared. But given a P4 correction is a bull market correction, I’d assume for the most part OEW would still be long through it as it’s hard to time and expectation is new highs after.
    – late 2015/early 2016 – to be frank, OEW made a mess of it over this period. Firstly expected new highs late 2015 which never came – but, given that was supposed to be the final rally of the whole bull market I’d assume around 2100 TC was cutting long positions. Then the Jan 2016 downtrend confirmation meant that we were supposed to be in a bear market but we ripped higher instead. Depending on how TC played it, this time period will have been the biggest detractor from performance vs SPX.
    – mid 2016 – switched count to long term bullish with 3000 target. Nearly exactly what happened.
    – September 2018 – looking for major 1 top soon, waves 4 and 5 still to come. I’d assume he’s lightened up on longs near the highs as you would if you thought there was only one more rally, it’s not when you add risk is it.

    If you go back even further, I believe he got the 2008 bear right. So the pattern I can see is that the long term view has mostly been right bar that rocky period in 2016. Not many have a record as good as that as there’s been reason for skepticism a lot of times. What I would say is that I can’t see much correlation between when OEW says there’s going to be a minor correction coming and it actually materialising. As called P4 a lot during 2013/14, didn’t foresee the January 2018 move, and didn’t nail be short term count on this current move. But the stated objective is to project the long term trends so that’s what you have to judge it on, and for the most part that’s been right.

    • Philippe V says:

      Thanks for your civil reply mcg, it’s rare enough to be noted and appreciated.
      Utterring the smallest criticism of TC’s work exposes oneself to ridiculously furious rebuttal and subjective attacks but it goes with the territory. More often than not, it’s more of a cult blog than a market technical analysis blog !
      I wasn’t going back in time and judging all of TC’s calls for the last 10 years, simply stating that despite some of his cautious comments in answering some bloggers questions since he posted his weekend update, the weekend update itself continued to display his bullsih bias and contained no particular warning or alternate scenarios. I have believed for a long time that the method is totally flawed. To fit a bullish count OEW consistently makes waves of higher degrees much shorter in time and in percentage terms than waves of lesser degrees. That in itself should be a warning. More often than not bullish and bearish confirmations arrive at the very end of the trend and actually mark a reversal than a continuation pattern. Take the pivots from 2780 to 2884, if you take into account the +/- 7 points leeway, they emcompass a range of 118 pts. Of these 118 pts, 70 points are covered by the pivots which accounts for 60% of the range. It’s way more than a 50/50 chance that a move will be stopped by a pivot, seriously, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel !
      And so on, but I will stop here, people are already mad enough with what’s going on in the market these days !

  20. Ashley says:

    Credit to CoolBiz1 for this count =) I’ll be a lot more confident in it if we take out 2680, we are on last support here in my eyes, UP or DIE time =)

  21. elmer510 says:

    This downhill we see can’t by no means be a Minor wave, the word minor – that’s something else than the great decline and strong volume we see now.
    Remember Asia, Russel 2000 and NAZ already in Bear Market Territory.

    Tony has been very right about his warnings – even though the jump start downwards was a little surprise.

  22. ninjashade314 says:

    How about an ED in the making, with 2940 minor 1 of int v? That could explain this deep retrace across the board, and we will have two more ATH with deep pullbacks, allowing the various SMAs to catch up and turn down…

    • blackjak100 says:

      Looks like only possibility left, however the b wave of minor 2 needs to start very soon and take up a lot of time to stay relatively in proportion to minor 1

  23. micky says:

    JK where are you taking profit? Man you got the best trade of the year.

    • Jack kendo says:

      micky, did already, those short term SPY PUTs went through the roof.
      I am very long on SPY Calls now.

      see Tony updated charts with Major 1 at 2940.
      man, I am on a different page now, see some patterns, and indications nobody mentioned, very very bullish going forward.

      cheers!

      • fionamargaret says:

        …don’t think so Jack.
        I think low 2500’s for starters with some more nice ratio work with TVIX…..I shall update as it is happening…x

        • fionamargaret says:

          Autopsy.
          I think when we have a “crash” wave, it could be followed by a bounce, but ultimately will fail and go to the lows (2535) and below (2450 ish)….
          It could perhaps have reached the first target today 2598, but a timely call by Phil stopped momentum cold, and thus went back up….I have to speak with Phil….x

  24. llerias7 says:

    Bears will have no mercy on this one…devastation all the way down…”someone” planning to (…) Trump!

  25. fotis2 says:

    Both of these are now invalid

    $USD GOLD No Change
    fotis2 says:
    August 6, 2018 at 2:24 pm

    https://invst.ly/878lq
    https://invst.ly/878mc
    New charts::::
    GOLD Bullflag=1271
    https://invst.ly/8ul05
    $USD IHS=91.68
    https://invst.ly/8ul1h
    He who waits at times loses..

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..nice Fotis.
      Let me ask you something.
      When someone writes something and you want to send them an e-mail through WordPress, how do you do that? Must be adjusting settings or something, but I cannot work it out….thanks x

  26. kvilia says:

    Am I understanding correctly that minor IV is out of consideration below 2700? And in this case bull market is completed?

  27. emuntrader says:

    EW Count. thinking 2670/80 is a good spot to end Wave 3 down.

  28. lml25 says:

    Gold up $35–GDX 6.25%.Haven’t seen that in 2 years.Way above the daily upper bb.The weekly +div I’ve been talking about kicking in for part 2?Why today,I wonder.

  29. lunker1 says:

    Tough to see but there’s +D at 2745. One might not be enough though it might take two

  30. stcoleridge says:

    So we have confirmed downtrends in all four major indices plus the RUT, Trannies and SOX. Moreover the four majors plus the DJT have all fallen lower than their projected minor 1, thus invalidating those particular counts. Is it fair to say that major 1 is in for the DOW, SPX, CCMP and NDX as represented in Tony’s Nasdaq count?

  31. Glad Tony is OK, hope all goes well…….we seem to be oversold enough to take a shot here….spx dancing on the 200 day…RSI deep oversold, MACD stretched way out.

  32. emuntrader says:

    Looks like we are carving out a 4th wave. still expecting more downside after completion.

  33. Philippe V says:

    In one earlier post Lee said that TC was “aware something was up” !
    After reading TC’s latest weekend update again, I beg to differ.
    Here are some excerpts:
    – “But the SPX/DOW appeared to have more work to do on the upside before entering their downtrends”
    – “We have been projecting Minor wave 4 would drop 60-100 points.”
    – “At this point everything seems to fit quite nicely”
    – “Time to start looking for a Minor wave 4 low”
    – “Nothing new for this bull market though”
    – “The decline has been 72 points, and is within our 60-100 point range. At Friday’s low the daily RSI hit oversold for the first time since Minor wave 2”
    – “Overall this activity looks good for a potential Minor wave 4 low, especially when you add the positive divergence on the hourly chart at the low. Placed a tentative green label at that 2869 low. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. Best to your trading! »
    In all objectivity, since it’s a word which is often used here, no one can interpret these words above as words of warning. On the contrary, they confirm the bullishness of the count and give further justifications for remaining bullish.

    • Lee x says:

      “Tony was aware something was up , if people read his answers to questions here he lets you know what he’s currently thinking”

      That’s what I said , get it straight

    • Lee x says:

      You’re on the list

    • 7dayyss says:

      Just like the media, you’re using sound bites to suit your agenda. Include the warnings next time, if you want to be fair. There in the blog also.

    • chadthundercockthethird says:

      Eh get over yourself dude – Tony has conviction and revises accordingly. Calling a wave 5 top is probably the hardest thing in EW to do. He made it known that there are other possibilities out there.

    • schizo1688 says:

      but i have to say 2858 area is where you put your stop loss

    • lunker1 says:

      Posted on October 6, 2018 by tony caldaro
      “As noted we scale into positions during potential bear market bottoms, and scale out during potential bull market tops. But do your own homework and make your own investment decisions.”

      Posted on September 29, 2018 by tony caldaro
      “we’re not one to try and pick the exact top. We scale in when we think a bull market is underway, and scale out when we think it is close to ending.”

    • hohoho598 says:

      Phillipe, just look at your own charts, put some lines and indicators on them, set your entry/exit/stop level, work out what you can afford to lose, work out your trade size, place your bet. You have the basics of a system. Develop that.

      Then when yo have time, come here for entertainment value only.

    • lunker1 says:

      Read the Weekend Updates going back to Sept 22.
      Several warnings were there

  34. IMHO the Int. V uptrend began in May at 2594 … Minor 1 2742 and Minor 2 as an expanded flat ending as shown on the chart at 2692 (wave x high at 2791) … uptrend held this morning just above at 2745 but this getting exceedingly deep for a wave 4 correction … if 2742 is breached the uptrend is probably done and it would confirm the strong likelihood that Int V truncated at 2940. Just my .02 but I’m still hanging on w/ a sliver of hope.

  35. jobjas says:

    SPX another possibility

  36. lml25 says:

    What’s gotten into gold/gdx?Two possibilities, fundamentally.China’s Golden Week ended Sunday with a big selloff Mon-Tues in gold.Usually gold sells the week previous to Golden Week and rises the latter part of last week.A little late.To a lesser extent,Barrick getting bought out seems to have put a floor in(for how long?)My two and a half cents.GDX way above the 10 and 20d again.GL all.

    • lml25 says:

      As far as equities,a repeat of yesterday is pretty high imho.They never let you out if you’re long in these situations.GL all.Best,Mr.C.

  37. Ashley says:

    The gap from early July looks filled, maybe hang around here at the 200 for a while, Its oversold but Id like to see +div….

  38. Page says:

    Buy Buy Buy…. Yes seriously 😀

    • gary61b says:

      If 2767 holds on the ES its possible we can reach 2748 area. if no support 2767 then maybe 2700.

  39. Theodore Lerts says:

    Sell any pops. She’s going down folks.

  40. phil1247 says:

    Tony
    prayers are on the way for a speedy recovery for you

  41. fionamargaret says:

    TVIX is in a sequence to 72…

  42. emuntrader says:

    The Market does seem to be impulsing to the downside. (2 scenarios I am looking at) 1. Wave C of a larger Intermediate 4 or 2. The market has topped and is starting a Bear market. Both lead to 5 waves to the downside.
    The purple indicates a cluster of 2
    The Blue indicates a cluster of 3
    The dark green indicates a cluster of 4

    Best of Luck

  43. lunker1 says:

    If Tony is out for a while and his blog closes again my blog is open for temporary duty until he comes back. Get well soon Tony.

    https://wordpress.com/post/lunker1.wordpress.com/445

  44. phil1247 says:

    ES
    the most aggressive ext short has failed
    next step is can 2762 es long from lows hold ?
    if not 2738.5 could still be tested
    which is the exact 50 % retrace of rally from feb lows

  45. micky says:

    OEW came within its target range of 3000+, only 60 points diff. Not bad at all.
    Another method mentioned the numbers of high 2800’s to low 2900’s last year, seems to also still be in play,that is why the abc up from Feb low is still bugging me. Anyhow one has to use other stuff besides only EW for trading.

  46. gary61b says:

    ES dropped 200 points to rejection level now what kind of a bounce. https://gyazo.com/da425b80b33bcbd2674be772c95ae8c2

    • gary61b says:

      A drop to the hwb from intermediate iv low 2551.75 to 2947 on ES. the 2700 level is also a good support.

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