SHORT TERM: gap up opening then pullback, DOW +54
The first three days of this week display Asian markets with an 0.8% loss, and European markets with a 0.1% gain. US markets started the week at SPX 2914. After a gap up opening Monday and rally to SPX 2937, the market dropped to 2918 by the end of the day. Tuesday traded in between those two levels. Then today, another gap up opening with a rally to SPX 2940, before pulling back in the afternoon. This certainly sounds positive.
Three of the four major indices, however, are all in different wave counts. The NDX/NAZ are in downtrends, along with the R2K and recently the TRAN. While the SPX/DOW are still in uptrends, and the DOW has been making new all-time highs the last two days. Quite a mix. Almost as bad as the divergence between the US and the rest of the world.
We updated the DOW charts to display a Minor wave 3 that is still underway. The SPX chart has been updated to suggest its Minor 3 may not have ended yet. The NDX/NAZ charts remain the same. If either can confirm an uptrend, this would suggest an extending Intermediate wave v. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day nearly oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: uptrend
CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/
Thanks Colin Twiggs
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/a-d_line_diverging/
Thanks Tom McClellan
Thanks and love to Tony…..and everyone xx
Another interesting runner if you are trying to think of something to do on Columbus Day……..
Well Yuki ran another marathon under 2.20…2.16.28 in Chicago today.
I hope you were able to read the full article.
The winner was Mo Farah..his thoughts on running…
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/oct/05/mo-farah-chicago-marathon-isimilar-to-a-fight
This is for the Fredster (Camp Freddie), and anyone who appreciates how a classically trained pianist can shape notes in a totally unorthodox brilliant way…truly the best…x
Bill Evans – 🙂
Watching the talking heads a few mnutes ago.
TA type guy Carter Worth says the anticipated bounce will come at the previous breakout level.
Which is … 2800 SPX.
Just saying, because it;s likely a lot of people are in at higher levels, and hoping for a more aggressive bounce.
But, as always, “Hope is not a strategy”.
Plan accordingly,
GTLA
SPX update – completes A of minor 4
charting tip (for those who use EW & want to learn from others) -When the market is moving fast move to a smaller time frame to identify waves and sub waves and pinpoint exact turn points.
Tony
weekly bearish engulfing reversal on SPX
daily close below 34 day ema
if 4 is going to turn blue
we need to stop digging this hole
n’est ce pas ?
Tony C: Your pivots are magical….I know you had 2 which both hit…have you ever looked at a return move ABOVE the 1st level rebound after the 2nd was reached? Seems to confirm a buy if that happens…….cheers.
have not look at that
thx
Tony Thanks, Excellent work.
we had 5 waves down from 2940.
is this the count you have for Minor 4?
2868 is right at the channel support.
cheers!
works for me =)
This is my current bullish view for the rest of 2018 and the first half of 2019.
For this bullish count to pan out, current wave 4 should end somewhere between the blue and yellow areas. Touch/break the red rectangle and then my view leans bearish again.
It is interesting how even now that I have switched to bullish, still there are key differences with Tony’s and Avi Gilburt’s counts. Some similarities though, one is that all 3 of us expect a wave 5 to finish next year, Avi expects it to go +3200, myself to around under 3090, Tony to +3000. However what comes after that is completely different in our 3 views, and that has to do with the degree at which each one is working on. Avi is working at Primary degree for that high, and expects a drop of 20-30%, Tony is working at his Major degree, one degree below Primary, and expects a drop of 15-20%, whereas my count is at 2 degrees below Primary and therefore expect a relatively shallow correction, of about 8%.
Will post all 3 counts updated when time permits.
fxa, nice work.
in the morning, you said:
“Still looking at a touch of the 2872-69 area today”
that 2869 was perfect, how did you see the number?
Tony updated Minor 4 at today’s 2869.
cheers!
He did, but with a tentative light green.
we stil headed lower, you guys high fiving when the pain hasn’t even hit ya yet
Thanks Jack. 2869 was the 1.128 Fibonacci retracement of the last impulsive up leg, from 2877 to 2942. Under the right conditions it works like a charm, I think it has to do with the fact that most traders are still unaware of that Fib ratio. Unfortunately the more people are aware of something in trading, it seems the less effective it gets with time, so better to keep it low key 🙂
2850 on monday
How about 2835-15 Newbie? Would that made you happier? 🙂
Only caveat, that would come to happen until around the end of the month…
Sure, that works.
This is the harmonic pattern that prompted me to hedge my shorts and reverse to long for now:
I think wave A of the wave 4 is done now, and we’ll be bouncing up and down between 2870 and 2915ish the whole of next week in a wave B, with potential for an overshot to the 2915-25 area, but won’t make new higher highs until this wave 4 is all done.
Looking market to get pumped Dow 25950-900 spx 2827
bounce at 70 ish?
Gary
here is what cash looks like to me
ready to ring the cash register now
see ya next week!
Well done phil. Have a good one.
thanks theo
how did you like that ending diagonal pointing down to the jan peak ?
it pushed my shorts out the door before the reversal
I closed my shorts right around there. The rally appears corrective. I expect further bleeding next week before this is resolved.
Nice job Tony
+1
”He who knows most speaks least”
Couldn’t have said it better myself!
Real quick… I just hedged my 2917 short at 2873 and additionally I opened a small long at the same level. Reason: there’s a bullish pattern in the 1hr and 4hr charts, a harmonic bullish BAT. No time to draw it and post it, maybe later. Good luck guys
SPX is extremely oversold but do not expect any bounce today, the earliest SPX will bounce is next week late Monday or Tuesday. I am still expecting SPX around 2780.
This has been my best trading week in a long time. Great setups and pivots. Best to everyone on either side of the trade (or political stance). Off to take the wife for a weekend with friends and see my Clemson boys play.
Battle of the downturn, two etfs tells a story of lacking China assistance….Sea (shipping) and Ura (uranium). Both dwindling for ages, but a change is getting closer.
Added a small long on SPX.
Still holding short also, but intend to close that trade later today.
Noticed City Index have netted off the margin between the two trades, which surprised me because I thought netting off had been abolished by ESMA?
Perhaps it depends which broker you’re with?
FTSE buy set up off 7300.. would target 7340ish as long as holds 7290. Would like to see a bit more back and forth around 7300-10 to set it up
And in now on the reaction retest.. stop 7299. See if it bounces
7290 stop sorry
es 2874 target coming up gary if you are still on the job 🙂
I’m seeing potential for 2864
hey theo
whats your take on bonds??
i only have a token amount of TBT now
No position in bonds right now. Probably will take a look when the dust settles but as of now I’m on the sidelines.
I am seeing 2800, as major support/currently…
yep, one more up to 2894 then down again, I like t2 for starters.
gary cash SPX got within 1 point of jan peak
best to know where the exit is right now
so i can get pushed out the door
like when they pushed me out at 2940 spx white line fever 😉
where is your red line ?
es looks like ed on 5 min
could be sharp reversal here
i am ready to take profits on half now
we are 6 ticks from target
” ? dont wait for the last 6 ticks ? lol
Tony thanks
oew updated dark blue Minor 3.
but my guess is Minor 3 completed at Oct 3’s 2940 with SPY 0.01 truncation.
yesterday’s 2884 can not be Minor 4. Minor 4 does not complete in one day.
slightly below 2884 for +div, should rise one more time whipsaw between 2883 ~ 2910.
sell this morning high, buy this 2883+-, and sell again next Monday at 2905~2910.
DOW and NDX already lower than yesterday’s low.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook
cheers!
Thanks to Tony who has done a remarkable job the last months. Not many would dare to suggest new ATHs when trade war with China was headline in the news every day, some few monts ago.
Now I wonder if it’s reasonable to put money on Minor V to come, or if it’s a risk we won’t see a minor V. Clouds are gathering at the stocmarket-sky, especially in Asia. Bond- Yield is rising in America. Feeling is headwinds are building up. Will there despite of this, be a final wave upwards, again?
I think so =) Either up here with potential positive divergence or as low as 2780 then a blow off bubble top, either way I don’t believe it’s done yet therefore we are free to crash 50% from here LOL….
From a trading psychology aspect another high would again “reward” the ´buy the decline crowd´ and give potential short sellers a chance to enter at a good price.
A decline now would get most of the market participants on the wrong foot, which is the situation “Mr Market” likes most.
But that of course is only my opinion 🙂
Hi…..feel about 2800 on SO is excel. pick, good work…Bud
Hi Bud, IF it’s an ED It needs to overlap 1-4 at 2802 otherwise Im wrong .)
Good work, Ashley.
+1
Nice charts…and weekend Ashley…..kisses to your crew.
Looks like the Hindenburg Omen made a comeback.A minimum 3% correction is most likely–down to 2852.GDX is iffy at best.GL all.
SP500 double top is in, and guess what happen’s next?
Market going down, right. Right now, looking for a low
at 2800 to form, then just have to wait to see how the bounce off
that low takes us higher. I am Bearish…, not Bullish. Key point,
if you read my work in recent weeks. There are no plans, to make
comments on the OEW board as regular practice. Thank you TC.
BTW SDS short term PO is 38-39, but it appears to be
more like a short term resistance level, for now that is a
short term PO….Bud
add 2800 on SP PO, per Ashley chart, looks spot on….
SPX pop since yesterday’s low has set up potential +D with a lower low.
It’s trending down.. would wait for a reaction-retest before attempting any longs as at the moment it’s just going lower and lower
TBT to 51……sort the long bond
UWT to 57….let’s see what if it can get up there….
x
sorry…yes, the words don’t make sense as written…and English is my mother tongue…fighting with my computer…maybe some irregular chip in it…xxx
TBT to 51 …..short the long bond, making rates higher, bond prices lower…
UWT to 57…oil to $83….let’s see what it can do….
Fiona,
the best performer is tvix for two days in a row. you lost interest and don’t play anymore?
next week should enter phase 4, the best, expecting 200% ~ 300% gain in a few days.
cheers!
xxx
Go ahead, Buy a new machine, you’ll thank me for the suggestion…
Thanks are always coming your way regardless Bud.
Now Bud if we don’t mean to attend the latest in the sagas of royal weddings by bus, we had better do well…..xx
ES, today marks the 11th day for minor 4, minor 2 was 12 days. Minor 4 so far 59.25, minor 2 was 103. Where is Tommy the fat finger, it could be over today and by Monday, no one would remember that we just had a correction.
doubt it gary
IF minor 4 ……. IT has not even reached 23 % retrace for spx
need further down i think
if the correction is over
this massive front run implies terrific strength going forward
just as all the front runs at 38% presaged the melt up to wave 3 top
while another melt up is possible
i need proof and i dont have it
The Tommy fat finger was selling event….. Phil I am not from Missouri but show me anyway?
show you what ?
Waves 4 usually last longer than waves 2… Part of the wave 4 conundrum. They also usually keep people guessing whether they are done or not until the very end.
Yesterday’s down move did look impulsive, but I do not believe it sold off far enough to the downside to be considered the completion of wave 4. Looking for a shorter wave 3 around to end around the 2869 area (.618 ratio of “wave i”). Then a small pull back and a final wave down to low 1960’s.
Best of luck
ES Morning Update October 5th 2018 – http://reddragonleo.com/2018/10/05/es-morning-update-october-5th-2018/
SPX update: my 2917 short position still open and in good shape. The half-position hedge opened at 2884 closed at a 20 points profit at 2904 a few minutes after the NFP release.
Still looking at a touch of the 2872-69 area today or early next week, then a reaction bounce then a second leg down to under 2864.
After having said that, I’ll mention again that I recently switched my medium and long term view to bullish, therefore I’m treating this downward move now as a pullback within an ongoing uptrend. If so, 2800 shouldn’t be ever breached.
Will maybe post a chart later with my bullish count for 2019.
If it goes under 2864 that would be the first time since April we’ve had lower lows. Still think it’s been coming and the rally up has been extremely odd in terms of its structure and at a time when everything else looks in bear market mode. Let’s see what happens if that happens. In terms of today’s action, looks like early strength which will be followed by later selling, just like some other days this week. Yesterday we gapped down and then rallied into close.. seems like it always fades one way or the other during these corrective moves, can’t remember the last time it opened lower, went lower and closed on the lows
I totally agree that the rally up from the 25xx lows was really odd, hence my reluctance to treat it as an impulsive wave 5. It took me a while to come around and start working from the view of an impulse. My current main count for next 8-9 months, I just posted it in this thread. If SPX goes under 2864 I expect it to end somewhere between 2845-15, if it goes lower then that then I’ll start to lean bearish again.
BONDS spike to new lows !
rogues should exit almost all short bond positions now
keep a few lotto tickets just in case
Tore .
.. i know i know ,,,,,,,,,
its just the beginning
profit targets hit …. gotta do it
I always attempt to find the monumental turns, for that surf forever slam dunk. But I have yet to experience it..Its living the dream or waiting for that sunset that never came. Thats me, up like a Lion and down like piece of nothing. Devoid of hope life is nothing, I have learned to love the threnches, thats my home….Never loose the stoke😝🤖😝
ES, looks as though the 38 special was possibly c1, c2 2915.5 retrace and then possibly c3 to finish near 2965 level. My best guess at the moment. you gotta love it.
didnt check es yet
got a chart ?
https://gyazo.com/f7a1011caf78b0cb10ea14fc56ea6776, above is 2865 not 2965.
gary! ….i saw the 2965! ….maybe
https://gyazo.com/100abdf5c0f0859c9ccbefadb512f487
ES, If the market is more bearish then the minute 4 level, I could see the use of the anchor on the minor 2 low to minor 3 high. I see a level close to the 38 special at 2848.5 possible pivot. https://gyazo.com/85301f20b54755ec469bfcda8a5796ec
have a good weekend all, Thanks Tony.