Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: FED raises rates, DOW -107

During the first three days of this week the Asian markets have gained 0.1%, and European markets have also gained 0.1%. US stocks gapped down at the open Monday, declined to SPX 2913, bounced around until Wednesday morning’s 2916 low, and then rallied into and after the FED’s rate hike to 2%. After hitting SPX 2931 just after 2pm, the market reversed and slid to 2903 just before the close 2906. FOMC volatility.

It looks like Minor wave 3 did end at SPX 2941 last week. That five waves advance was: 2863-2802-2917-2864-2941. The decline from that high hit SPX 2913 on Monday, overlapping 2917. But the today’s decline below SPX 2908 was more convincing that Minor 4 is underway. If it is, the market could drop 60-100 points from the SPX 2941 all-time high. After that Minor wave 5 should kick in, and the market should take out, or match its highs. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 and 2995 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend inflection point


About tony caldaro

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170 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Ashley says:

    Hmmn, then again….

  2. fionamargaret says:

    This is for everyone….watch carefully and see how many artists you recognize.
    Thanks to Brian Wilson and the BB who made our lives so much more enchanting……x

    • fionamargaret says:

    • torehund says:

      Fiona thats whats so exciting with stocks, especially when trends exhaust and then heads in the other direction.But this strategy is inherently dangerous… Biggest mistake is to search up the inflections instead of getting into a trend that is strong and already established. I always feel that its important to buy scrap bottom and if not I tend to let the trend run without participating. Old habits die hard.
      God loves trends until he does not. Conversely we are just humans invested in this earthly maze, following our own trends on multiple levels. Otherwise God would have a hard time executing his tasks 🙂

      • Ashley says:

        We are way too bearish for THE TOP here, I expect a strong rally to get all the suckers onboard once Trump finishes up here…… Im expecting it to be entertaining due to the utter and complete self destruction of our congress, but particularly the communist left…….

        • torehund says:

          Tide might turn, its long overdue..Its all about trends, and they only die on their own exuberance and not by opposition. The bull is young and kicking..

        • Ashley says:

          PAPA DOW via stealth QEEasy, King dollah too the MOON maybe even get a movie like the 69 “Moon Landing” LOL =) What the DOOM cycle say OLD Witch???? LOL It’s FED PUT time soon OR ELSE =)

        • Ashley says:

          It don’t wan’t to go down and there does appear to be some “Winning” going on here, short term it looks bullish with a ton of sopport under here, that might be you bulls SELL signal LOL .)

  3. airran23 says:

    Anybody have a take on AAPL? Will there be a better buy point? Thanks in advance.

  4. torehund says:

    Big oil count: 1999 to 2008, wave a. 2008 to 2016, wave b. Wave c is ongoing…..A biggie, lol. Development since 1999 has been corrective looking so here we go…And very few peak oilers left…

    • ttsden says:

      Hi All. My 2 cents and ask Jobjas to critique me if you please.
      WTIC waves are destined obfuscate, because in following EWT the tendancy is to first look for the 1-2-3-4-5 series. However since the low of $26 in 2016, the wave pattern must needs become a series of A-B-Cs. = Implication, that for foreseeable future prices are trapped into a $30 – $100 trading range. Granted that Torehund’s prognosis calls for advancing prices in a C wave to greater heights, Remember C waves are complicated and bewitching and disappointing. Looking pragmatically therefore this C from $26 will subdivide in two series of A-B-C’s and also have to accommodate a minute a-b-c. At this point, you have a missing minute b from earlier a’s truncated
      tops @ $75+ and @$74+
      Am reading that this rally to $ 73-74 will give way to lower prices to complete the downward b in the low 60’s. Interestingly the time line for this low point lies in 2020. Thus enabling TC’s bull market in continuance , and to expect a series of ATH’s in its exponential parabolic ascent.
      This outlook also makes more logical sense but it delays $100 Crude Oil until 2022.
      Any longs in CLZ8 today requires a prudently placed Stop.
      Thank you Tony for me taking up space and more importantly for your speedy and permanent recovery; your generosity and tireless enlightenment . Be abundantly Blessed family at all.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Interesting TT, I was thinking gold/oil perhaps doing countertrend cadences….almost a complex interweaving….

        • torehund says:

          A 5 wave structure can always be interpreted as a 3 wave structure. That said we might at times be under the impression that some wave formation is corrective an another is impulsive. When moving interdemensionally, at a higher or lower degrees (than where we are actually looking) the impression may just be opposite.
          The Ascent of oil from 1999 to 2008 ” looks very textbook impulsive” and thats perfectly all right for an a wave, even when its just a limb a of a larger order zig zag abc. Looking at the complex I see from 1999 onwards, a c wave going to 300 Usd ++ is a bit out of this world, but can not be totally overlooked.
          Tomorrows world might alter itself alongside rising oil, simultaneously waking up the sleeping peak oilers😳 You never know…

          • ttsden says:

            Torehund. You are absolutely correct, 5 waves up from 1999 to the 2008 to I think approx $160 was the (5) It was textbook IMPULSIVE. Then witness reverse exponential compressed declining waves down to A at about $30 in 2009. Then up in a-b-c’s to $115 followed again by impulsive 5 waves down to $26in 2016.
            Thereafter there has not been any impulsive 5 waves structures. In addition the major top for B has not and will not be reached for many years to come.
            Why ? Because what you have In between has been and still travelling in a huge sideways Triangle; tracing series of big 3 waves for A-B-C-D-E. Complicating this you have in between the big ABCDE triangle smaller a-b-c waves. So for fear of repeating myself, need to mention that prices have not completed the big B due at the low 60’s. Only then can the big C commence to $100 in 2022.
            Looking beyond the big E at the top end of an imaginary Triangle that declining is destined to fall beyond the $26 and if we are still alive to witness this in probably 2026-7 the ultimate low point for Crude Oil at the very inception of this long term Industrial age at $3.00.
            On that final journey down the substitution of fossil fuels will be in an advanced stage.
            I rest my case, but as we all know the verdict of the market will dictate.

            Right now I am not interested in Crude Oil, it is merely to me a futures sport for punting.
            Researching into which economies will thrive with what ever resources or technologies at their command to be the great powers of the future.
            Because Nuclear, Solar or some other Energy source will prevail.
            Please share this knowledge with the Tony Caldaro Collective, if you have the answer.
            In this space a one man show will not be able to accomplish what major companies spending multi billion in specialist research. Thank you.

            • torehund says:

              The ascent from 26 Usd oil has some motive elements to it, 1 and 2 then possibly a bunch of intermediate waves (currently ongoing). The real tree top might still be far far away.
              The way I see it currencies world wide are in a bear market and public sector too, and if all currencies fall then stocks and stuff has to go up. Thats like a wildfire, the worst managed Govs burn first and the better ones later. Then eventually green shoots arrive out of tyranny. Unprecedented times for sure.

              • ttsden says:

                Sir . noted your repartee, but am not going to continue this fruitless exercise.
                When I see empirical evidence I accept it.
                If it makes you happy for me to say you are right – you got it.
                Nice weekend to All

        • fionamargaret says:

          ….still see this….a sort of danse macabre…

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