Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening, DOW +28

So far this week Asian markets have lost 0.9%, and Europeans markets have gained 0.9%. The SPX started the week at 2872. Monday’s gap up opening took it to SPX 2887 early before heading lower. Tuesday’s gap down opening dropped it to SPX 2867, and then the market started to rally. Today the market opened flat, rallied to SPX 2895, then headed lower. A choppy week so far.

It has been two weeks since the SPX hit an all-time high at 2917. After a drop to SPX 2864 last Friday, a week and a half after that high, the market rallied on Monday, then retested that low on Tuesday. This is a long period of time for what we thought was just a Micro 2 of Minute iii. Other Micro waves have lasted 1 week at best during this uptrend.

In the weekend update we did note SPX 2917 could also have been the high for Minute iii of Minor 3. This is possible as long as the current pullback does not overlap the high of Minute i at SPX 2863. So far the low is SPX 2864.

Now a third possible count, we’re being objective, has revealed itself. It is possible this entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but Minor wave 1 of Int. v. If so, we can count a potentially completed five Minute wave advance from the Int. wave iv low: 2791-2692-2863-2802-2917. Clearly this market has reached an inflection point. However it resolves itself, the bull market is still underway and new highs will be made in the weeks/months ahead. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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220 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Going to be an interesting day. Most uptrends have been 25 points over the last 2 weeks.
    That would take us to a max of 2904. Probably pull back from there. Then decide if it wants to make 1 more up. So a break of 2879 becomes bearish and a break back ove 2904 is bullish. Looking to cover long from 2887 yesterday at the open and short 2900l level see we’re we go from there.mgood luck all. My perfect view has us topping out at 2935 by 9-18 ish. Then big pull back end of sept

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  2. Page says:

    Any pullback in Gold and miners is a BUY.

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  3. phil1247 says:

    scotty

    2902 es target has the power to break the short
    then you got to give her all ya got !

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  4. mcgcapital says:

    If we do get a 5% drop that will break both the up channel since April and end the run of higher lows by going through 2800. I wouldn’t want to bet on this subdividing and going much higher through 3000. To me the vol we’ve had in the up channel is a sign of weakness not strength, market has always been likely to break lower at some point. No market is too low to start selling or too high to start buying.. if the uptrend breaks people need to be prepared incase it turns into something big rather than be trying to buy a downtrend for a wave 3 which doesn’t seem likely based on how markets (global equities, bonds, currencies) have been acting this year. If it does come we’ll know about it, will be obvious on the charts. No need to anticipate, just react

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  5. Bud Fox says:

    This chart/list looks bogus to me…you comments
    https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

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  6. Tony notice the DAX count has an upward sloping head and shoulders, is there a bullish case/count we havn’t seen the top? just a correction

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  7. kvilia says:

    Tony,
    Thank you for the update. Great to see you posting and sounding well. Regarding markets, its futures contract rollover, so a buying spree can reveal itself in the next few days.
    Cheers,

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  8. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble….I can feel the excitement…..

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=c3881e82-7a16-4983-859d-0a1215a9b53d&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James….starring the Charts of the Week

    Thanks and love to Tony….and yes, everyone xx

    I liked this for the visual presentation….I felt I had to dress up just to watch…so black tie or tails.
    And the encore…totally perfect. Just watch the faces of the orchestra…they are your biggest critics.

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    • torehund says:

      I like classical music, but somehow it elicits spots of melancholy. I also understand the need for a dress code as they are selling the product to the affluent and proper. Furthermore the dress code imposes discipline, so that no one is tempted to play totally out of line, lol. Maybe if you are a director then freedom of appearance increases. Directors often cut their hair like Einstein did, and then get all the chicks 🙂

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      • fionamargaret says:

        The orchestra have a dress code, but as for the audience, that is determined by the setting.
        The Proms from the Royal Albert Hall in London, is much more “let your hair down” for the audience, and children are brought along. Just wonderful times.
        “Playing out of line” reminds me of Bernstein. He became familiar with the orchestra players in rehearsal and he would point to anyone he felt out of tune, out of sync, etc., and he did not suffer fools gladly……
        Well, on concert night if everything was going well, he would turn his head slightly and wink or gesture to the player he had previously admonished, acknowledging they had got it right. Such a wonderful feeling.

        Now Tore “getting all the chicks” is more difficult to pinpoint, but as a chick, I think intelligence, kindness, with a good sense of humour is a start……x

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  9. jobjas says:

    SPX could have ended in an ED with an expected 10 % drop

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