Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening, DOW +28

So far this week Asian markets have lost 0.9%, and Europeans markets have gained 0.9%. The SPX started the week at 2872. Monday’s gap up opening took it to SPX 2887 early before heading lower. Tuesday’s gap down opening dropped it to SPX 2867, and then the market started to rally. Today the market opened flat, rallied to SPX 2895, then headed lower. A choppy week so far.

It has been two weeks since the SPX hit an all-time high at 2917. After a drop to SPX 2864 last Friday, a week and a half after that high, the market rallied on Monday, then retested that low on Tuesday. This is a long period of time for what we thought was just a Micro 2 of Minute iii. Other Micro waves have lasted 1 week at best during this uptrend.

In the weekend update we did note SPX 2917 could also have been the high for Minute iii of Minor 3. This is possible as long as the current pullback does not overlap the high of Minute i at SPX 2863. So far the low is SPX 2864.

Now a third possible count, we’re being objective, has revealed itself. It is possible this entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but Minor wave 1 of Int. v. If so, we can count a potentially completed five Minute wave advance from the Int. wave iv low: 2791-2692-2863-2802-2917. Clearly this market has reached an inflection point. However it resolves itself, the bull market is still underway and new highs will be made in the weeks/months ahead. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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220 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.


  2. H D says:

    Thx Tony, classic set up. SPX HH and DJI not.


  3. Lee x says:

    Thanks Tony appreciate it


  4. tony caldaro says:

    short term bearish,longer term bullish … correct


  5. torehund says:

    Fodder to add to the waves🙈


  6. Thanks, Tony…been kind of sick lately but hope your health has been improving greatly


  7. Lars Johansen says:

    If count 3 is the right one. Are we Looking for 5% pullback? From 2917 ? Thx


  8. 6 day drop after new highs and a 3 day rebound of less than 2/3rds retrace? Start of drop should be tomorrow and it should accelerate late Thursday into Friday. How low? 2800 minimum. Start of something much bigger nd longer.


  9. lml25 says:

    So in scenario #2,if 2863 is taken out,it’s MORE bullish?An overlap would seem bearish.Must be short term bearish,longer term bullish,somehow.Later all.


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