Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: flat opening, DOW +28

So far this week Asian markets have lost 0.9%, and Europeans markets have gained 0.9%. The SPX started the week at 2872. Monday’s gap up opening took it to SPX 2887 early before heading lower. Tuesday’s gap down opening dropped it to SPX 2867, and then the market started to rally. Today the market opened flat, rallied to SPX 2895, then headed lower. A choppy week so far.

It has been two weeks since the SPX hit an all-time high at 2917. After a drop to SPX 2864 last Friday, a week and a half after that high, the market rallied on Monday, then retested that low on Tuesday. This is a long period of time for what we thought was just a Micro 2 of Minute iii. Other Micro waves have lasted 1 week at best during this uptrend.

In the weekend update we did note SPX 2917 could also have been the high for Minute iii of Minor 3. This is possible as long as the current pullback does not overlap the high of Minute i at SPX 2863. So far the low is SPX 2864.

Now a third possible count, we’re being objective, has revealed itself. It is possible this entire uptrend is not Intermediate wave v, but Minor wave 1 of Int. v. If so, we can count a potentially completed five Minute wave advance from the Int. wave iv low: 2791-2692-2863-2802-2917. Clearly this market has reached an inflection point. However it resolves itself, the bull market is still underway and new highs will be made in the weeks/months ahead. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend inflection point

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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220 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. gary61b says:

    ESU8, may have a little more b in it yet.. then down ? https://www.screencast.com/t/7iE2onR0b5it

  2. Anne Day says:

    Phil, remember that you mentioned Firstrade (https://www.firstrade.com) here a while ago?

    I went ahead and opened an account with them. It was a super long process for me (3 weeks) and still yet to get my margin account approved. So no shorts and no options yet. Their trading system does look a bit primitive. But the trades are free. No commissions. No contract fees. Zero. Zilch.

    Just tried their system for a couple of day trades. Earned my lunch money. Time for a cheeseburger now 🙂

  3. phil1247 says:

    SPX closes today at 2913.37

    you all have until 3:30 PM to make your choice
    good luck to all participants !

    • schizo1688 says:

      Will faang leads the market downward ? Where is the support phil ? Thanks

      • phil1247 says:

        NDX would have to break 7543
        to break the most aggressive extension long

        the top could be in with 5 down and 3 up
        and at .618 resistance
        but do you want to gamble ?
        thats what a short is right now …

        do you feel lucky?

  4. lml25 says:

    Just a quick observation on GDX.Though it’s down .25%,I’ve noticed the last 3 days,Barrick has been trying to turn around–with a low 3 days ago and a +div that has taken hold.It’s up .80% this morning,trying to keep GDX near the flatline.ABX seems to be outperforming.Something to watch.GL all.

  5. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX still dancing around 2905. It touched already 2911 which is my last lower high level in my progression up. It was printed overnight though, and I don’t like that as not enough people was trapped there. Therefore probabilities of a marginal new high increase. 2924, 2931 and the 2949 outlier.
    Ideally, 2924ish between now and Mon-Tue.
    Still on the sidelines, not worried about FOMO in case SPX heads South directly from 2911. That’s what my previous trading work was for. Longs at 2869-72 ready to be stopped out at BE and 2905 shorts activated then.

    • well, my last post for the day, going to play golf in sunny Arizona today. Best of luck to any and all dealing with this storm. My target i posted the other day remains 2931-2935 by Tuesday. Obviously no guarantee. Covered my long and have no position. So will see what happens. Best of luck all and have a great weekend

  6. phil1247 says:

    tore ..

    Re TBT

    they had their chance to start a bond squeeze and failed
    does this look like equilibrium to you ?
    continue to sell into any bond rally
    straight down in extensions

  7. Jack Lad says:

    Anyone want to knock this count, otherwise I can just wait and see…
    https://wavecount.blogspot.com/2018/09/s-500-index.html

    • H D says:

      If you moved your A to where you have C and went from there it would look better. Some prefer E to be the shortest wave in an EDT. Also connecting the A-C Tl would give the throw over look.
      Watching this one too. Wave 5=1 from the 2016 low. Some options.

    • fionamargaret says:

      This is what I asked Tony about.
      Also have a look at 1995 – 2000.
      Thanks Jack and HD.
      This is the day TBT has an advantage over TLT, but no set path…..yet

        • Ashley says:

          Im still not sure why everyone would start from the 2553 low and disregard the possibility that 4 was over at 2532 with a simple zig-zag…. That may be the case or it may not but it does work with the rule of alternation with wave 2 which was more of a flat .)

          • I lied not my last post. Ashley i saw your count I like it. Except i have 2931-2935 to end minor 3 then 2800 for minor 4.

            Thats it see ya

            • Ashley says:

              Trying, the look and count on the DOW supports a new high at least to fill in the gap but if we go there Id expect a new ATH, probably near that black dashed line at 26.8K….

          • H D says:

            C/3 typically shorter than 1 in an EDT. We all agree it’s choppy though so 3 of 3 of 3’s (impulse counts) are very dangerous.

    • Ashley says:

      Also if the ED was over why we have such a choppy move down then up???? Im calling this wave 4 but it could be over now, so much fun….

    • fionamargaret says:

      What if from the 2009 low, this is just wave 1, and about to drop….is this even possible??

      • fionamargaret says:

        Have a good weekend….hope Rocco is doing well…
        Reminds me of when Mat, Fotis, HD and I used to work together…
        Is it possible to be a wave 1 or are you laughing too hard……xxx

        • torehund says:

          Good weekend Fiona, Tony and all. Jumped a day, now its Friday in earnest😏 I guarantee…

        • Jack kendo says:

          wave 1 from 666.79 to 2916.5 is an great idea.
          “1” means conclusion, means counting 5-waves from the bottom to the top.
          “1” means “2” is coming, retracing the entire move, usually retrace 61.8% toward 1526, or 78.6% toward 1198.
          “1” could also mean all done with the life cycle.
          ‘1″ is a beauty.
          what’s the second derivative of “1”?

          as I said, oew put a “1” at 2916.5 is the best and smartest move ever saw.

          joke of the week: 38 special

          cheers!

  8. phil1247 says:

    God bless all those in the path of Florence
    thank God it has weakened to cat 1
    we went thru two cat 3 hurricane eye walls with 125 mph winds
    it is terrifying
    but beautiful when you are in the eye and you can see the stars and moon

    • Anne Day says:

      Haven’t read this one.

      But I think I know what you said there: Wait until it reaches “top” next week and then short 🙂

      • reddragonleo says:

        Yes Anne… I’m waiting on the top next week to short at for the first wave down into late September or early October. Then I expect a bounce back up that should be completed by the middle of October. After that I expect a nasty wave 3 (or C) down that scares the crap out of everyone. Whether this is a crash wave is unknown, but it should be scary.

  9. Jack kendo says:

    Tony Thanks
    I believe by putting a “1” at 2916.5 Top is a very important and smart move from oew.
    even though here oew “1” meant to be Minor wave 1 of Int. v, meaning Int. v be extended.
    but a “1” here can be a conclusion, “1” means all, for example, “1” at summer 2011 concluded then the Major 1, then -21% corrections for Major 2.

    As Fiona initiated the idea, inflection point. It’s still hold true since the beginning of this September.
    Even though market had strong rally for three days, the inflection signal still holds true with spx rally to 2907 today.
    So far, the quantified inflection signal never ceded since the beginning of September.

    Very interesting, by some calculations with the pattern, the first major stop comes at 2600, Fiona’s number always. I believe we should get to 2600 sooner than later.

    cheers!

  10. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Threat of 13wrsi -/div if HH into Monthly Resistance T/F Zone (See SPY Chart).
    Or Not & continue higher! 🙂

    SPX ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/ACehsx0Q/
    SPY ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/IVSrtw8B/

  11. asaraniti says:

    Good evening all…..

    Just as a FYI…. futures rollover peaked this afternoon. Some financial websites may still be using the September contract others may use the December or the continuous contract. The December contract as of this afternoon looks like it will trade 4 points higher than the September contract..

    Bottom line…. look at the futures contract you are researching.

  12. torehund says:

    https://www.ft.com/content/43c74e02-b749-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe

    Dangerous times not only fat fingers but diverging markets to spread betting etc..This trader was more or les very succesful until two energy markets diverged passed what he believed was possible.

  13. emuntrader says:

    One possible count for the QQQ.

    Hey Tony, With the third possible count you posted on Wednesday’s update. Would that count be eliminated with a higher high in the $SPX?

  14. schizo1688 says:

    A lot of noises on this blog , you just have to filter out the right one , thanks again for tony and Phil …

  15. vivelaamo says:

    900 more points on the DOW and I’m done. Taking longer then i anticipated but I’m in no rush. Should get there by the end of the year.

    • Anne Day says:

      Taking longer? Try UDOW.

      If it is still too slow, long some call options. For 900 points, you could try UDOW $110 on Dec 21, which is about $500 a contract. It is all about conviction 🙂

  16. pick the close market trading at 2903.30 at the moment of typing i say 2909.58

  17. fxaprendiz says:

    Now that SPX 2905 has been reached, if (IF..) this index is going to keep churning higher, my eyes are on 2911, 2924 & 2931, the outlier would be 2949. Only one number is still lower high… We’ll see.
    Next week might be the turning point, and many traders in here are starting to feel something is brewing up. Not saying it WILL resolve to the downside (even though that’s my expectation) but definitely some medium term views will be confirmed and some others will be negated.

  18. Honestly, Im a nervous bull here, with my finger on the sell button. Believe tomorrow is free money Friday and new highs will be made. but see the bear options and if it were to drop this would be a good bull trap as well. closing hour should resolve this HopefullY

  19. fxaprendiz says:

    There’s a bearish micro bat on the SPX. Not trading it though… Too small and I don’t scalp.

  20. Per the pattern in my chart below, today is January 1 2018

  21. scottycj1 says:

    Dont know if there are any Soybean traders here…..Iv’e been long a few days now….
    Could have a weather event or 2 in the next week or so
    that could send beans up smartly.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I didn’t thank you for your suggestions to me the other day, but I appreciate any feedback.
      and I do like your charts…x

  22. emuntrader says:

    Hey guys, just checking in. Still in Cash. I live in Raleigh, NC. so I have been busy the past few days.
    Best of Luck to everyone.

  23. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

    • cj32 says:

      • lml25 says:

        coolbiz1
        coolbiz1
        @coolbizone
        ·
        Sep 11
        Realistically, SPX can go either way, below 2916.50 EDT, bearish is still valid and needs confirmation below 2802.
        Bullish it needs to stay above 2864.12 and keep grinding higher?
        This explains…….LOL
        LML25:I guess you CAN have it both ways.

    • floyd drummer says:

      cj,

      thx for posting the alt bullish chart a few days back.
      …and keep posting!

      • cj32 says:

        U may like to follow CBZ @coolbizone

        • lml25 says:

          I have no problem with anyone’s posts,except in this case,coolbiz’s last prediction of a major bearish call didn’t pan out on Nasdaq.the new call is, there’s a range of 50-70 SPX points and a note that above 2916 is bullish and 2864 is bearish.Not useful info.I say above 2000 is bullish and below 1000 is bearish.Now pay me.
          Meanwhile GDX cannot hold above the 10d(18.10)–while the dollar is lower.Not much else to say.GL all.

  24. fionamargaret says:

    2600
    We are at an inflection point…either we go higher and start a new progression….OR
    we go lower in this sequence…2858, 2835….but keep in mind the base is 2600.
    I think there is unfinished business to the downside….

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      If I counted the times you (incorrectly) stated this several times, basically every day, every time I read this forum, I would be an exceptionally wealthy man.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …just the boundaries Theo….but I hope you do well regardless…

        • Theodore Lerts says:

          I’m not hoping anyone does poorly but you use the terms “do or die” or “inflection point” on a daily basis. It’s barely better than fear mongering and equates to zero value or less in day trading.

          • fionamargaret says:

            ..never have used “inflection point” here until now Theo, unless I am posting Tata by mistake…

    • micky says:

      Fiona to be fair to especially newbie traders, your math kept pointing down every day while we went up a few hundred points. Is it possible for you to give invalidation points every time you post your numbers, like you did now?

      • fionamargaret says:

        Shall do Micky.
        I often took the sequence that was the best regardless of what the crowd was doing .I did explain when folks asked.
        I appreciate your work….I think you know that x
        What happened to Locan, Joseph and JJWalker..if anyone knows…x

  25. kvilia says:

    So miners in abc down to hwb from lows. 50% line for JNUG is 7.13 but I suspect it will dip into 6.90s if GC tests 1203.

  26. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX: 2905 target, check (2906.4 so far). Lower high, check.
    I have hedged my 2869-72 longs at 2905 as now the tricky part starts.
    SPX can either dance around then continue higher later in the day, or pullback to 2880-90 before printing a higher ATH next week, or it can simply start the reversal down now.
    Too many variables for my liking so I’m standing aside now until one of the 3 scenarios described above pans out.
    Patience pays…

    • Anne Day says:

      >>Patience pays…

      I have to say that this is misleading.

      I short call options. What I really like is that the price of a call option simply tells you that the profit that is not made is considered loss. Yes, opportunities that should have taken but not taken, to me, should clearly be considered losses.

      • fxaprendiz says:

        Anne, In an ideal world, yes, you would always be in the market, having one position or another.
        In practice though, you can’t, at least you can’t without risking more than you are willing when things aren’t clear enough. It was clear to me last week that we would have a bounce and we had it. Now I’m on the sidelines as it’s not clear to me whether we’ll have a higher high over 2917 or not. If it was clear to me I would have kept my longs open.
        Yes, you miss some opportunities when you take profits/hedge, but I’d rather have that than risking seeing those profits evaporate or diminish when there’s an option that may happen.

        • Anne Day says:

          Patience really cuts both ways.

          What I was trying to say is that this has not much to do with patience; it is just risk management.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Congrats on another great call fxa. Europe’s still not acting right for an impulsive rally but this could move sideways a while or pop higher before rolling over as is often the case. Some people always have to be in because of FOMO.. if you believe it’s going to 3000+ with no exceptions then it’s introducing bias and they find it hard to see when the momentum has tailed off and when it’s strong. Seeing a lot of people calling it higher just at the point it looks like it’s running out of steam. Ultimately bulls still in control on SPX until 1. Up channel breaks and 2. 2800 breaks. But first step for that to happen would be a lower high and low.. when we’re at a point where it could turnout to be a lower high you’re brave to be long

          • fxaprendiz says:

            Thanks mcg.
            To my eyes SPX is running out of steam although it’s very possible it will make a marginal new high before rolling over. Not betting on it though and the reason for hedging already although it might be premature. As Anne said, risk management…
            Indeed the one who will remain long until the last point up will be very brave, especially as this SPX either already topped or will do it in next few days.

      • floyd drummer says:

        imo, …he is correct, …patience pays.
        if i understand you correctly, …you can not always be in the market and be correct.
        …and you will miss opportunities.

        for those readers new to options and thinking of shorting options, …it might be a good idea to reconsider.

        very limited upside for your money. …if you are that good at the market you would only be long puts/calls. unlimited upside long, …very limited downside and you can have a large position.
        the cost (margin) to carry short options is large, especially when compared to your return.

        you can also be very, very wrong, …and it can be very, very expensive, …again with limited upside.
        time is on your side, …but you can not out trade being on the wrong side of a trend. …and if there is a panic, …the spread on the bid/ask can get huge, …if they post one.
        they own you and they know it.

        you will be right a whole lot, …and probably not make enough money to balance out the very few times you are wrong.

        if you are good and you wish to leveraged, …have the most control of the trade, ..and trade with the least slippage and costs, …you are trading futures, not options.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Agree floyd, when amateur traders trade options it’s usually because they’re averse to using stop losses. If you use options over futures you’re adding in many more variables to the value of your trade, not just price. Impossible to predict when exactly the market will move, how much underlying volatility will move and hence options prices, plus you have the higher trading costs and reduced liquidity. They have a role in portfolio management to hedge underlying positions or if you have a particularly high conviction there’s an imminent big move, but those aren’t everyday occurrences. If you trade them day to day it’s difficult to be consistently profitable

        • Anne Day says:

          >>…and you will miss opportunities.

          It is not about whether one will miss opportunities. Of course, one misses them all the time. It is about making aware of it and therefore see if one can actually do something about it.

          I am not sure that patience pays. Certainly not all the time. Often it is just an excuse for not acting.

  27. Good positioning yesterday by Mr. buck.
    Definitely a guy who works hard.


    tryingtomakeabuck says:
    September 12, 2018 at 2:29 pm

    combination of buy the close and cover your shorts should push to 2895 then as always simply gap over resistance in the morning. new highs by Friday.
    See ya tomorrow.
    ****
    tryingtomakeabuck says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:23 pm

    I will help you out, went long SPXL at 2887 a market that wont go down gets squeezed higher

  28. Going to be an interesting day. Most uptrends have been 25 points over the last 2 weeks.
    That would take us to a max of 2904. Probably pull back from there. Then decide if it wants to make 1 more up. So a break of 2879 becomes bearish and a break back ove 2904 is bullish. Looking to cover long from 2887 yesterday at the open and short 2900l level see we’re we go from there.mgood luck all. My perfect view has us topping out at 2935 by 9-18 ish. Then big pull back end of sept

  29. Page says:

    Any pullback in Gold and miners is a BUY.

  30. phil1247 says:

    scotty

    2902 es target has the power to break the short
    then you got to give her all ya got !

  31. mcgcapital says:

    If we do get a 5% drop that will break both the up channel since April and end the run of higher lows by going through 2800. I wouldn’t want to bet on this subdividing and going much higher through 3000. To me the vol we’ve had in the up channel is a sign of weakness not strength, market has always been likely to break lower at some point. No market is too low to start selling or too high to start buying.. if the uptrend breaks people need to be prepared incase it turns into something big rather than be trying to buy a downtrend for a wave 3 which doesn’t seem likely based on how markets (global equities, bonds, currencies) have been acting this year. If it does come we’ll know about it, will be obvious on the charts. No need to anticipate, just react

  32. Bud Fox says:

    This chart/list looks bogus to me…you comments
    https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

  33. Tony notice the DAX count has an upward sloping head and shoulders, is there a bullish case/count we havn’t seen the top? just a correction

  34. kvilia says:

    Tony,
    Thank you for the update. Great to see you posting and sounding well. Regarding markets, its futures contract rollover, so a buying spree can reveal itself in the next few days.
    Cheers,

  35. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble….I can feel the excitement…..

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=c3881e82-7a16-4983-859d-0a1215a9b53d&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James….starring the Charts of the Week

    Thanks and love to Tony….and yes, everyone xx

    I liked this for the visual presentation….I felt I had to dress up just to watch…so black tie or tails.
    And the encore…totally perfect. Just watch the faces of the orchestra…they are your biggest critics.

    • torehund says:

      I like classical music, but somehow it elicits spots of melancholy. I also understand the need for a dress code as they are selling the product to the affluent and proper. Furthermore the dress code imposes discipline, so that no one is tempted to play totally out of line, lol. Maybe if you are a director then freedom of appearance increases. Directors often cut their hair like Einstein did, and then get all the chicks 🙂

      • fionamargaret says:

        The orchestra have a dress code, but as for the audience, that is determined by the setting.
        The Proms from the Royal Albert Hall in London, is much more “let your hair down” for the audience, and children are brought along. Just wonderful times.
        “Playing out of line” reminds me of Bernstein. He became familiar with the orchestra players in rehearsal and he would point to anyone he felt out of tune, out of sync, etc., and he did not suffer fools gladly……
        Well, on concert night if everything was going well, he would turn his head slightly and wink or gesture to the player he had previously admonished, acknowledging they had got it right. Such a wonderful feeling.

        Now Tore “getting all the chicks” is more difficult to pinpoint, but as a chick, I think intelligence, kindness, with a good sense of humour is a start……x

  36. jobjas says:

    SPX could have ended in an ED with an expected 10 % drop

  37. H D says:

    Thx Tony, classic set up. SPX HH and DJI not.

  38. Lee x says:

    Thanks Tony appreciate it

  39. tony caldaro says:

    short term bearish,longer term bullish … correct

  40. torehund says:

    Fodder to add to the waves🙈

  41. Thanks, Tony…been kind of sick lately but hope your health has been improving greatly

  42. Lars Johansen says:

    If count 3 is the right one. Are we Looking for 5% pullback? From 2917 ? Thx

  43. 6 day drop after new highs and a 3 day rebound of less than 2/3rds retrace? Start of drop should be tomorrow and it should accelerate late Thursday into Friday. How low? 2800 minimum. Start of something much bigger nd longer.

  44. lml25 says:

    So in scenario #2,if 2863 is taken out,it’s MORE bullish?An overlap would seem bearish.Must be short term bearish,longer term bullish,somehow.Later all.

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