Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW +23

For the first three days of this week the Asian markets have lost 1.8%, and the European markets have lost 2.0%. The US market was closed Monday, and gapped down at the open on both Tuesday and Wednesday. This would suggest the SPX was also down hard. But it is actually down less than 0.5% for the week.

From last week’s all-time high of SPX 2917 the market has dropped exactly 40 points to today’s low of 2877. More than expected at this stage of the rally. But quite normal for this uptrend. The non-quantified short term wave count we were tracking did not work out. SPX 2917 did end Wave 1 of Minute iii of Minor 3. Wave 2 might have ended today at SPX 2877. Pullbacks of this degree, during this uptrend, have been as much as 50+ points. So maybe a bit more downside before the uptrend resumes. There are, however, positive divergences on both the SPX and DOW hourly charts. Short term support at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

 

About tony caldaro

Investor
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274 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    I receive this from JPM each day, but never really looked at what they have to say…if anyone likes this just say, and I shall include with my other offerings nightly.
    Two videos, the second for Tore, as I usually find his ear on a Friday evening…I don’t think he will have to question his surfing prowess….

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx

    https://www.iris.xyz/


    • torehund says:

      Surfing is a dog and pony show at times, both in and outside of the water.
      Pond paddling offers no chicks, no intrigues, no Bentleys and no crowds, the best part of surfing minus the waves. Today its raining straight down, headed for the pond soon to enjoy the sight, and glide through the tranquil water, see you later 🙂

  2. Looking forward to Tony’s update tomorrow. Would assume the 2858 pivot should hold. So was today’s low at 2864 good enough and up we go or 1 more low on Monday. We shall see.

    Thanks all. Have a great weekend

  3. csonkabull39 says:

    Sold my long from 2803 at 2915, based on a trendline from 1974, and a 3BR on the 15 second Tick chart. Still short from 2915.

  4. Close on the low of the day, gap down Monday and finish up this down wave near 2840-2850

  5. fxaprendiz says:

    As many of you are aware, the stock markets have a fractal nature, “wheels within wheels” or in the case of EW, waves within waves. Since 2009 the SPX has been following the wave structure from 1932, only in the order of 2 degrees lower. Right now the SPX is in the equivalent of 2007, having printed a higher ATH already, with the previous January high akin to 2000 high. There may be a marginal new high coming but if the correlation holds it should be minimal, in the order of 10-20 points above SPX 2917. The waves don’t have to be an exact copy but they rhyme. They can also alternate: 2000-02 decline was orderly while the Jan-Feb 2018 decline was fast and furious, just like 2007-2009 was, that’s why I’m expecting the alternation to hold and for this decline towards SPX 2500 to be more like 2000-02, relatively orderly and slow and with lots of back and forth. Therefore planning on playing both sides on the way down but always heavier when short than when long.

  6. emuntrader says:

    Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur stats.

    8 out of the last 9 years the day before Rosh Hashanah has closed positive. We will see by EOD. Odds favor this pullback has more time, as mentioned earlier.

    Best of luck

  7. jobjas says:

    Posting a trade does not help anybody ( real-time or after the fact AND real trade or imaginary ) it is just saying ‘I am better than others
    Post a viewpoint , a method , a strategy , a chart that others can learn or adapt to their trading

  8. H D says:

  9. gary61b says:

    spx close at 2990….
    :>)

  10. Theodore Lerts says:

    $USD – take heed of it’s strength. Like I said, all pullbacks will be small. Target 115+

  11. phil1247 says:

    gary

    last one
    i am sure you know why i picked this band 😉

    • phil1247 says:

      phil1247 says:
      September 7, 2018 at 11:06 am
      selloff starting from 38%
      79 breached

      2 strikes gary
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      asa …. NEWS does not matter

      this was posted before the plunge
      decline was expected
      but didnt know what would cause ” strike three ”

      someday you will believe

    • Anne Day says:

      News matters. And fake matters even more 🙂

      Given that this “old” news is finally out of Trump’s mouth, I think I am ready to short YANG.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Asa, it’s more important to see what the market does with the news than the news themselves. My forex broker sometimes sends me unsolicited email alerts and notified me about Trump’s news. I watched the 10 point dip in the SPX, waited a couple hours then added to my long at 2869, as I have seen enough news reactions to know when they are counter-trend or trend continuation. SPX had already bottomed so all it did with the news was to test the lows and has now recovered 3/4 of the pre-news level. I’m not saying for you not to follow the news is you are really into it, just saying that news are often ascribed more importance than they are warranted.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I am rebuked for posting trades. Really? I give numbers which are from Tony’s sequences and pivots. Usually 3 or under (as per rules).
        Phil posts actual trades every few minutes and weekends…is the market open then?
        All this nonsense about “blue horseshoe” and bonds…and yes he was/is wrong
        Then last weekend Nasdaq 10,000. Do you not think that is a trade and to the unsuspecting a loss of funds.
        If there is a limit of 3 or 5 or 7, it is still a rule, and cannot be applied to some and not others…did we not just have to consider powerful white men establishing their own set of rules that were discriminating….for goodness sake let us learn just a little…

  12. emuntrader says:

    Possible Triple divergence on the 15 min RSI(9) and Stoch(9), normally leads to a short term pop. but no promises with this market.

  13. lunker1 says:

    SPY 286.94 bounce?

  14. Lee x says:

    Then there’s the pivot

    Thx Tony

    Have a good weekend sir

  15. Page says:

    Sep/Oct/Nov are buy the dip and sell the rip months so don’t hope for new highs until mid-term election is over. Expecting SPX to print 2780-2740 before this correction is over.

  16. jobjas says:

    Reenforcing belief system
    we all post here more to reenforce our own belief system than anything else ( check out the postings of each for the last month or so ) The problem is if one does not have a valid strategy ( or one that is being tested ) then one is just trying ones luck or worse still building on a wrong foundation .

  17. lunker1 says:

    no +D on INDU
    signals still mixed

  18. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX long at 2872 SL 2862 Target open.
    This downswing from 2917 is over, expecting at least 5 days on the upside.
    No more long terms charts, I got tired of Phil calling them either ridiculous, fantasies or wishful thinking. I don’t need that. From now on just posting trades and commentary. You guys can keep reading Phil’s awesome 10 points scalps and incredible 15min charts.
    Time eventually showed my last long term chart posted in here right, but still, got tired of myopic short term traders.

    • Jack kendo says:

      agreed, phil is a troll. Lee finally figured that out. a smart lady “x” knew that a year ago while Tony was in hospital.

      not trying to be rude, thought your last posted trade was 2898 long.
      my short term long hedge target 2902 by mid of next week.
      cheers!

      • phil1247 says:

        you two ladies have very thin skin
        perhaps a spine transplant could help ?

      • fxaprendiz says:

        Yes you are right Jack, but I stopped posting updates for a week. Actually I was long 2 times at 2897 last week. First time, I took profits in half position at 2911 and got stopped out at 2902 on the rest. Later opened another long at 2897 which was stopped out at 2895 on Tuesday. I then reversed and went short from there, took profits at 2865 yesterday, and today got long again at 2872 once I was sure the bottom for this downswing was in.
        Expecting now a one week bounce then I’ll go short again. I’ll try to play both sides as I’m expecting these next months to be very volatile and plenty of SL hunting on both sides. Although from now on my shorts will always be heavier than my longs.

        • Jack kendo says:

          fxaprendiz, with plan A analogy, I took short term long profit at 2883. real time.
          only long term short now.
          cheers!

          • lunker1 says:

            You’re posting too much and you’re posting trades. Stop breaking the rules thanks

            • Jack kendo says:

              plenty of people posted trades (delayed and phantom). you only targeting me.
              you once posted life threatening on me. i saved the evidence.
              zero credit to you.

              • fionamargaret says:

                ..just ignore Jack…x

              • lunker1 says:

                Yes I said I was going to stab you with my mouse 🙄 because you’re freaking annoying.

                Just because plenty of people do it doesn’t make it right.
                Lee has got the other stuff covered.

                Stop the blow hard stuff.

                “I traded millions of dollars and I am only 3 million in the hole but it doesn’t matter to me because I have so many zeros I don’t know what to do with them”

                Very tacky JK Find some class

              • lunker1 says:

                Ignore says Fiona who also post trades as well 🙄

  19. Jack kendo says:


    cheers!

  20. phil1247 says:

    kvilia
    cl 66.5 then 65.74

    doesnt look bullish to me LOL

  21. Jack kendo says:

    2864 is a good spot to put a hedge to long term short. but only for short term trade. keep your long term short.
    9 waves down and +D
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp
    cheers!

  22. gary61b says:

    Fridays are usually up days, so today up for starting a B wave, back her up to 2892. with 66 being the bottom of A?

  23. emuntrader says:

    2789.18 – 2647.32 = 141.83 @ 12 Trading periods (2 Hour)
    2801.90 – 2553.80 = 248.10 @ 55
    2717.49 – 2594.62 = 122.87 @ 44
    2742.10 – 2698.67 = 65.29 @ 42
    2791.47 – 2691.99 = 99.48 @ 44
    2863.43 – 2802.49 = 60.94 @ 24

    Average drop of 123.09 and an average trading period of 36.8
    If we start the analysis of the major wave from the April low (Wave IV)
    Average drop of 87.45 and an average trading period of 38.9

    Currently the Market is 20 periods and 49.21 points down from the 2916.5 high.
    With the data of the 2nd set of data (starting @ wave IV), that would put the market to 2829 with 18.5 periods to go, which is also 76.3% retracement from the high. Still not unusual.

    Lastly, looking at the Fib time sequence from the 2532 Feb low – has another 33 periods to complete (plus or minus).

    Next week start the High Holidays for Jewish people (Rosh Hashanah (9th) to Yom Kippur (19th)), So not expecting a lot of action next week. Shana Tova! to all my Jewish friends.

  24. Our Sunday report explained why the SP 500 stopped at 2915. Pretty obvious to us on Sunday. 2830 up next…

  25. mcgcapital says:

    Bloodbath this. Not even a rally for NFP. As I said last weekend, big downtrend coming looking at the majority of markets, US has been the last one to go but it can’t decouple forever and the rest aren’t going to go up.

    Makes it difficult short term to know what the parameters are for entering trades, short and hold is the only option until we hit some sort of bottom

  26. phil1247 says:

    es

    2857 next target

  27. asaraniti says:

    Good morning traders….
    /ES tested and defended a 50% short around the close yesterday. In the overnight session /ES had a counter trend rally, which hit a brick wall at the
    38% short. That is usually a bearish sign…. short term. The higher probability is for /ES to test the profit target of this measured move short….the 2 dotted green lines. DH chart

  28. cj32 says:

    Cr. to cbz

  29. micky says:

    Ftse almost at 2nd support, should give a bounce if not reversal today

  30. Ashley says:

    DOW weekly TL’s are similar to SPX but not as technically bullish, need to get it moving UP soon =)

  31. Ashley says:

    DOW daily support/resistance

  32. Ashley says:

    SPX weekly TL’S aren’t necessarily bearish BUT things need to get moving UP soon =)

  33. Ashley says:

    SPX daily support/resistance

  34. jobjas says:

    Possible wave 3 is over – ES chart

  35. Looks like mr market going to tank tomorrow 2840 on deck I suppose

    • fenster6 says:

      I Think McClellan has himself confused. Read this paragraph and see if it makes sense to you? Maybe he just got the stocks versus gold the wrong way around at the end of the first paragraph.

      “If the consumer starts to lose confidence in the economy, that is going to show up in the University of Michigan data, and presumably also in the preference for stocks versus gold.

      A drop in confidence will lead people to favor “real” assets over hypothetically valued ones like stocks, and so if one is expecting such a change in confidence then gold would be a preferred asset. But just because confidence is high does not mean that it has to drop right away. Confidence remained high throughout the mid to late 1980s, and the DJIA/Gold Ratio kept on rising. “

      • fionamargaret says:

        Let us examine that first paragraph Fenster with a couple of word changes.

        “If the consumer starts to lose confidence in the economy, not only would that show up in the University of Michigan data, but also presumably in the preference for stocks over gold.”

        Now it becomes clearer what Tom is suggesting….that the preference for stocks would suffer in favour of gold.

        “but” instead of “and” makes one consider (a hesitant) whereas “and” is a continuance…not so clear.
        “stocks over gold” instead of “stocks versus gold” simplifies further.
        “also presumably” is so much better than “presumably also” which I find clumsy.

        I hope this helps

        • fenster6 says:

          Got you! Thanks Fiona.
          What a clumsy way to express oneself.

          However his chart also suggests that the DOW/ Gold ratio could run a lot higher which is not great news for a gold lover like me 🙂

          • fionamargaret says:

            I thought it interesting Kimble covered gold too Fenster, and I did laugh at Raymond James…surely their writing is becoming more humorous.

            I was waiting for someone to suggest “stocks over gold” is not the same as “stocks versus gold” (which I know…more equality in “stocks versus gold”), but for the sake of understanding I used anyways…. Artistic licence….x

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