Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2875. After a gap up opening to start the week, the market rallied to new highs on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Near the close on Wednesday the SPX hit 2917. After that it pulled back into Friday, closing at SPX 2902. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.8%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.2%. Economic reports on the week were mixed. On the downtick: consumer sentiment, the Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller, pending home sales, plus jobless claims increased. On the uptick: personal income/spending, consumer confidence, Q2 GDP, and core inflation. Next week’s report’s are highlighted by the ISM’s and monthly Payroll. Best to your three day weekend!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The SPX, NAZ, NDX, TRAN and R2K all continued to make new all-time highs this week. We continue to track the DOW, NYSE and DJW index awaiting their new highs. At this week’s highs the DOW was 1.7% away from its all-time high, the NYSE 3.7%, and the DJW 4.7%. Still expecting all three of these indices to reach all-time new highs before the bull market concludes. Four point seven percent added to this week’s SPX high equals 3053. Generally in line with our mid-2016 target of SPX 3000+ by 2018+.

The long-term count continues to unfold as expected. A Major wave 1 bull market underway since early-2016 at SPX 1810. The market has risen 61% in the 30 months since that low. The Major wave bull market consists of five Intermediate waves. Int. waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016, and Int. waves iii and iv completed in the spring of 2018. Int. wave v has been underway since April 2018. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The current Int. wave v uptrend started in early-April at SPX 2554. Since then it has risen 14% in nearly 5 months. It beginnings were quite choppy as noted in the daily chart below. Nevertheless, around mid-June it completed Minor wave 1 at SPX 2791 and pulled back to Minor wave 2 at SPX 2692 by late June. Minor wave 3, of this five minor wave uptrend, has been underway since that low.

On the SPX hourly chart below, we counted Minor wave 1 as five Minute waves with an irregular Minute ii. We are expecting Minor wave 3 to also unfold with five Minute waves. Minute waves i and ii completed in early August at SPX 2863 and 2802 respectively. And, Minute wave iii has been underway since that low.

SHORT TERM

Minute wave iii has rallied pretty much straight up since the Minute ii low. There have been several pullbacks, but none over 20 points until this last one from Wednesday’s high. Thus far from the SPX 2802 low: 2819-2806-2850-2834-2873-2854-2917-2892? It’s clearly a strong advance as none of the pullbacks have overlapped the previous high, and market breadth has continued to climb to new highs as well.

Once this pullback concludes we’re expecting a rally to new highs, probably the OEW 2929 pivot range, before Minute iii could possibly end. More than likely, only wave 1 of Minute iii would conclude at that point. Short term support is at the 2884 and 2858 pivots, with resistance at the 2929 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were mostly higher on the week and gained 0.7%.

Europeans markets were mostly lower and lost 0.6%.

The DJ World index gained 0.6%, and the NYSE gained 0.1%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue their uptrend but lost 0.1%.

Crude looks like it is in an uptrend and gained 1.6% on the week.

Gold looks like it is in an uptrend as well but lost 0.5%.

The USD looks like it is in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: Labor day holiday. Tuesday: ISM, auto sales, and construction spending. Wednesday: Trade deficit. Thursday: ADP, jobless claims, ISM services and factory orders. Friday: monthly Payrolls.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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293 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    Rather surprised OEW charts, like the SPX are already several days old.
    It would appear, times have changed….

    • fionamargaret says:

      Bud, go to the top right of the page and click on Wednesday Update….everything is fine there …x

  2. scottycj1 says:

    The Dow is starting to catch a bid and move up.
    I think it’s the Dukes….they know something…

  3. emuntrader says:

    Tony, any thoughts on today’s price action. and where we stand in the EW count?

  4. mcgcapital says:

    SPX candlesticks and price action look similar to June to me. Gap down in the mornings, a bit of follow through selling, then rally back after Europe closes. Eventually it will break lower towards 2800 as long as we’re holding under 2900. Can’t see 2870s being the low. Think it makes it to 2800, FTSE and Dax down to 7100-7200 and 11700ish, then we see whether it can rally for Q4 with a positive recoupling. Otherwise bear market probably here.. shouldn’t be a big surprise with the way markets have been acting in aggregate this year

    • tommyboys says:

      No bear market. You bears been saying this since February. Sorry.

      • Lee x says:

        Hey T B
        I remember the AH low(year low) in globex here
        You and I are one of few who actually had a rational thought process that night ,most here were calling much lower telling each other to suck it haha.

        When this does turn I’m sure there will plenty of folks here all over it

      • mcgcapital says:

        Erm was bullish in Feb post plunge.. bearish in March on the rebound rally and bullish around the April lows. Just haven’t been overly impressed with the price action off the April lows and was skeptical we’d make new highs

        Long term as an investor always bullish.. but think there’s a crash coming on monetary policy unwind/debt levels at some point. Most perma bulls either don’t see market correlations as important and recent movements across various markets are showing something might be happening, certainly more chance of it now than last year when everything was rallying together. Or their other argument is that fears are overplayed because it’s like the boy that cried wolf, because the issues have accumulated over a long period of time in the background and haven’t crashed the economy/markets, they never will… time will tell, open to both intermediate term outcomes. But if it’s not now it will be some other time. Now odds are elevated given how markets in aggregate are acting

  5. quickrick38 says:

    Well that looks like 5 up or 1 of 5.

  6. scottycj1 says:

    Back above 2900—-think Phil has 2905….should start the next leg up

  7. lunker1 says:

    SPX 2877 bottom of 2884 pivot
    Still no overlap
    no +D

    INDU has a higher low today and +D

  8. emuntrader says:

    We are go for launch. Last post – so I hope I am right. LOL
    Best of Luck

  9. fionamargaret says:

    UGAZ is a buy at 51…I put a bid in….

    • fionamargaret says:

      2800
      If you scroll back the Wednesday Update, you will find the numbers for the Dow.

      • emuntrader says:

        Thinking Rally to 2929-2935. Then probably bigger correction. Long until then, stops below. 2870. If we get above 2940, then extensions come into play.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Well we went back and retested the previous high, but the pattern favours more down …2858 might be good for now…

      • fionamargaret says:

        The set-up of the sequences made the Nasdaq rising an almost impossible feat, and the S&P suggested down from last Wednesday…check I wrote then re-test the breakout 2872,
        and either turn there or go to about 2800 (the equivalent, all things being equal, makes the DJIA 25,165)
        When Tony gives you the sequences, work out the next numbers and you have the market days in advance….

    • hunter says:

      May not go that low but I have 2.624 Natgas Future price contract. A bounce first. After this, short should be careful.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I agree Hunter.
        51 is a bid price, but have not really scrutinized the numbers….terrific symmetry there.
        We’ll see, and I hope you do well.

  10. emuntrader says:

    I would prefer a retest of the low, but then strong rally. Pattern looks to be completing here.
    Best of Luck

  11. next downside target is 2873. if that fails run like the wind. expect it to bounce and rally, but you never know

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Taken some off FTSE shorts at 7360. Oversold hourly so might bounce. This thing hasn’t managed to move straight down since we began the correction/bear market so could easily have yet another counter rally from 7300-40 towards 7500. Although if reality is setting in we might stop with the bounces. Have to see what happens

  13. quickrick38 says:

    Took forever, but we finally got the 50% retrace.

  14. kvilia says:

    Phil, got stopped out of CL long. Not happy with the wide stop.

    • phil1247 says:

      yes i took small rebuy yest at 70.68
      but once that gave way it was all over
      took all profits off after that and lost a bit on the rebuy

      • kvilia says:

        DH is extremely bullish on the CL. 67.09 is lis of daily extensions, 67.91 – HWB. I will try to make another trade if it dips to 67 sh.

  15. phil1247 says:

    cash spx 2878 looks like a magnet to me gary

  16. Lee x says:

    Catfish pond

  17. phil1247 says:

    es
    bears slowly gaining an edge
    bulls must push above 2895 to stem the slide
    ext long failed again
    below key 2902 level as yesterday……….. bears have the ball

    yellow to red lights flashing for bulls

  18. What a mess, not what I was expecting. Is what it is. Good luck all
    2916-2903 13 points
    2903-2912 9
    2912-2895. 17
    2895-2906. 11
    2906-2891. 15
    2891-2903. 12
    2903-2885. 18
    2885-2898. 13
    2898-?

  19. quickrick38 says:

    Just another typical, ugly, nasty wave 4:

    5 min count indicates we still may not be done. Another drop to hit the 50% retrace and complete the pattern. 50% is at 2882.

  20. 2B 5W says:

    Tony,

    appreciate on the weekly update.
    u were saying 2929 pivot will be i of minute 3 only.
    by the time min 5 ended… spx will be above 3K already.
    cant imagine where V will stop.

    Hope all in well!

  21. Jack kendo says:

    Déjà vu
    none of the elliott wave here sees the counts?
    per chart, tomorrow, latest Thursday, big plunges are coming.
    count on it.

    cheers!

  22. asaraniti says:

    Good evening all.

    Observation…. /VX is testing a 50% long as /ES tests a 50% short. On the 15 minute chart, /ES is bearish. The bull/bear line in the sand level to watch is 2905.55 (red line) ….bullish above and bearish below.

    • asaraniti says:

      Good morning all. As a follow up to last nights post, /ES tested and defended it’s 50% short (yellow line). The higher probability is for /ES to test and defend a smaller micro 50% short which leads into the test of the profit target The profit target (green dotted line) of this short set up is /ES 2879…..close to Tony’s pivot. DH chart.

      • gary61b says:

        ASA, again ES is in a pb, Target not completing will happen on the larger mm. Just an observation, once the pb trend is broken then the next mm in prior trend should start completing Targets. 2895 is first bump then 2906..

  23. H D says:

    Tony, Thx for the weekend update. Nice calls! 3 day 34 point hit enough for min iv?

  24. stcoleridge says:

    Not sure there are any “radical leftists” on this blog. There is one confused and delusional split-gender virtue signaling, identity politicking narcissist. Other than that it all seems like a pretty normal cross section.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      Hilarious. I think I know who you’re referring to. If I guess correctly, would you send me $10 American?

    • Tim Waters says:

      We’ll it’s a relative term. What was leftest extreme only 30 years ago is center-right in this day and age. Don’t believe me, listen to the Dem senators in the Kavanaugh hearings. They’ve taken a hard turn left and call everyone to the right, “Right-wing extremists”

      • fishonhook says:

        Yes the torch carrying thugs who ram innocents women with their cars are not extreme at all
        How silly to call them so

        • waterstim says:

          How many people in this country are like that or condone that? 12 or so. You know good and well that is an extreme example. If you can’t see that, then you can’t see anything. Of course I didn’t hear you say one thing about Antifa, who was right in the thick of that deal, instigating every bit of it. Speak the truth or don’t speak at all.

          • fenster6 says:

            And your prez refused to condemn the the march of hate

            Did Antifa kill anyone??

            ANTIFA stands for ANTI- FASCISTS. Is that a bad thing?

            as to 12…there were hundreds there that night. Not a peep from the administration to condemn it. Maybe they had more important things on their minds like paying off porn stars

  25. schizo1688 says:

    Hi Phil, what’s the support to watch for SnP cash ? Thanks

  26. lunker1 says:

    SPX watching for +D at the 2884 pivot

  27. looks like a wave 4 to me . down to 2860 then 1 last 5 wave up to 3000. the last waves of 13-15-17 were very small, this is something else stronger to the downside, before another up move. good luck

  28. Tim Waters says:

    I’m beginning to think that some of the radical leftists that regularly post here are literally craving that the market goes down solely for political reasons.

    • fionamargaret says:

      I don’t think Tony is a radical leftist Tim, and I am using his sequences……

      • Tim Waters says:

        Oh I agree. Tony’s not a radical. But I think you clearly understand the difference between opinionated market sentiment and Tony’s sequences. I think I remember you describing one of your friend’s (on this board) of you as being “nervous” about this market. I get that. BTW, I generally like your posts and contributions. You keep things flowing very nicely. I also enjoy Jeffery Saut’s take on the market. He says the S&P will finish the year at 3200. Nice!

        • fionamargaret says:

          If we do get to 2800 Tim, more incentive to get on the bus…..and then there are the bedraggled EM’s seeking safety…x

      • fionamargaret says:

        I didn’t phrase that reply to you at all well, Tim.
        I was correlating Tony’s suggestion of support at 2884 and 2858 (down) to your suggestion that radical leftists crave the market to go down. It was meant to be funny, and yes, I always use his numbers within the greater picture as I see it.
        I have lower possible as I was incorporating ratios of velocity.
        I hope you do well…x

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