Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2850. After a higher open on Monday the market rallied to match its all-time high on Tuesday at SPX 2873. After that the market started to pullback. By Thursday the market had pulled back to SPX 2854. Then it rallied on Friday to set a new all-time high at SPX 2876, before ending the week at 2875. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.7%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.2%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: existing/new homes sales and durable goods. On the uptick: weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q2 GDP and Case-Shiller.

LONG TERM: uptrend

For over two years now we have had a target of SPX 3000+ by 2018+. This year we expanded the definition of that target by including three other stock market indices: the DOW, NYSE and the DJW index. We not only expected the SPX to make new highs this year. Which it did this week. We are also expecting the other three indices to make all-time new highs before the bull market ends.

Update: from its recent high the DOW is 2.7% below its all-time high, the NYSE is 4.6%,

and the DJW is 5.4%.

The 2+ year Major wave 1 bull market continues to unfold. Intermediate waves i and ii completed in the spring of 2016, and Intermediate waves iii and iv completed in the spring of 2018. Intermediate wave v, to complete Major wave 1, has been underway since early April and has already reached a marginal new all-time high. The minimum price for the wave pattern has been achieved.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The Intermediate wave v uptrend from early April continues to unfold. We have been labeling the five waves up to SPX 2791 in mid-June as Minor wave 1. The pullback to SPX 2692 in late-June as Minor wave 2. And the recent rally, from that low, as part of Minor wave 3.

From the late-June SPX 2692 low we had five small waves up to SPX 2863 by early-August: 2743-2699-2848-2796-2863. This can be considered Minute wave i of Minor 3. The decline that followed to SPX 2802 could be Minute ii. And Minute iii of Minor 3 is underway now. From that SPX 2802 low the market has rallied straight up in one wave to SPX 2876 by early this week.

SHORT TERM

As noted above the current rally from SPX 2802 made an all-time high this week at SPX 2876. We have noted it was a straight up rally. There have been three small reversals along the way that could have created seven small waves: 2819-2806-2850-2834-2873-2854-2876. If this is correct then a larger pullback could occur when it completes nine waves. Support for that pullback would probably be in the OEW 2835 pivot range. After that the rally should resume.

Short term support is at the 2858 and 2835 pivots, with resistance at the 2884 and 2929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 1.2% for the week.

The European markets were mostly higher as well and gained 0.6%.

The DJW index gained 1.2%  and the NYSE gained 0.7%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.2%.

Crude looks to be uptrending again and gained 5.4%.

Gold may also be in an uptrend again and gained 2.5%.

The USD looks to be starting a downtrend and lost 1.0%.

NEXT WEEK

Tuesday: Case-Shiller and consumer confidence. Wednesday: Q2 GDP (+4.1%) and pending home sales. Thursday: jobless claims and personal income/spending. Friday: Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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305 Responses to Weekend update

  1. phil1247 says:

    rogues …

    if we dont blast above 2919 target
    prepare to take profits to sleeping point

  2. ragnar5 says:

    Earlier today: “$NDX is up 59 points. $AMZN is 15.3 points, $MSFT 8.45 points, $GOOGL is 7.8 points, $AAPL is 6.5 points. More than half the gain is 4 stocks doing the heavy lifting today. When this shifts and these go down it will really be felt.” Quoting Thos. Thornton

  3. Lee x says:

    Nobody cares about your political views

    If someone posts something political you don’t have to respond because no one cares either way

    I know I know it’s the internet and you have rights to speak your mind
    No you don’t because no one cares

    Step up be an adult and stop posting and reacting to political posts

    • Holly Silver says:

      It Is NOT politics. It’s called criminal behavior, ethics violations, etc… That’s like calling the Mafia a Re[publican. Political views all fly under the umbrella of rule of law. When this administration abolishes the rule of law and congress turns a blind eye it is called mutiny. we have abandoned the rule of law and I dare anyone to tell me differently. We went after nations because they didn’t agree with us, we go after free speech daily by trying to change the rule of law or intimidate them with prosecution. When congress used the same tactic in the Russian exposure it no longer has anything to do with POLITICS! We ruined lives because peopled refused to compromise their integrity and stuck to the rule of law. History books will be all in agreement and all will shame us for not doing anything about it.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        This is an investing/trading blog. No one here cares about ethics violations. Can’t you find a yahoo board to hang around on?

        • Holly Silver says:

          You will care when it affects YOU! You exemplify this whole group argument that as long as it doesn’t personally affect me or my livelihood we should ignore it. I guess it matters not what country you reside in? After all you can make money in Turkey and Russia. How easily we give up our freedoms. Apathy reigns! Sad times and it is sadder because not many see it until it’s too late. Subverting the constitution is none of your business? then what is? Am I still over reacting? Watch the repercussions and the fact that everyone here will be talking about this. I mean everyone. After you personally feel the pain that is. we are heading for a dark period, darker than the great depression. Funny how politics wasn’t on anyone’s mind before the depression but became obsessed with it afterwards.

          BTW, AMZN broke above intra-day 1995 to 1997 so far. That seems to negate my ceiling and perhaps much higher prices are seen. Enjoy it!

          I will be off very soon anyway so try not to collapse on me. Verbal banter not even related to anyone here personally shouldn’t affect your sensitive soul like it is. Strange how repulsed so many are to hear what I consider the truth. Can’t just let it go? I wonder why?

          Sept. 1st you will have to get the constitutional review by someone else.

    • Bud Fox says:

      IGNORE Lee, he is not feeling well today,,,,,

  4. torehund says:

    Its a biotech day, and many more will follow for a long long time 😝

  5. emuntrader says:

    Expecting a one more push to the upside (could dbl top or low 1920’s) before a 15-25 pt decline. Then resumption of uptrend.

    Best of Luck

  6. micro 2 ended at 2855 straight up to 2940-2950 by friday

  7. Holly Silver says:

    Silly me, here I go again using TRADE as the driver of this years moves. I suppose no one knows that’s going on with the trade talks? Funny how obstinate people are. Canada is being squeeeeezed to sign or be left out. This Fr(y)day is D-day. but of course external news never drives the market. has anyone YET come up with a good reason most here accepted end of wave 5 at end of 2015 but now we have decades to go? tiss a puzzlement. I bring real hard to answer questions that constantly get ignored. Perhaps that defense mechanism means you prefer NOT to find an answer?

    Another important top is AMZN at 1995. Now it is at 1987. A breakout above that mark means we go higher and longer which perhaps throws my SPX 1942 mark off also.

    • tommyboys says:

      Silly you using Trump win to call a mega market crash after election only to miss a 40%+ rally thus far… 👍🏼

  8. phil1247 says:

    so now you are saying your bets are all on the long side ?

    after all your nonsense?

    • Holly Silver says:

      I POSTED my view, remember? I always look for the terminal point simply because it is where you make the most money. Once that mark faded I saw a to da moon run. I still see the big drop but willing to let the market exceed my expectations. Silly argument that the trade wars and it’s affect are over. Wait till trump goes after the EU. he will, count on it! China will also pull all stops knowing thee is no middle ground. Trade will get ugly. I mean real ugly soon. But of course no one believe me the whole year was about trade wars. Follow the News of TRADE and you get your answer to the market future.

  9. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony. Glad you are doing better!
    Anyone will try shorting 2929 pivot?

    • phil1247 says:

      no shorts for me till extension long fails kvilia

      ..
      . CL in extension longs

      straight up to 75

      are you long ?

      • kvilia says:

        I’m flat, Phil.
        Last CL’s move up pulled a rug from underneath me, usually takes a few trading days to digest and rethink. I can’t trade futures and trade etfs, so overnight hold is good only during a solid trend. At this moment none of the trading vehicles are in solid trend, just looking for more technical and volatile environment after Labor Day.
        No matter how good gains I make holding for few days, one violent move erases everything. Sort of decided on closing the same day.

      • kvilia says:

        Tony’s pivots are great to trade, too.

  10. kingfrogcash says:

    Big Banks haven’t been playing. Flat for a month. Opportunity for those not wanting to chase.

  11. fxaprendiz says:

    There are 2 bearish patterns forming in the daily chart of the SPX, one of them almost complete.

    A Butterfly 113 would be formed when the SPX hits 2921, and if SPX doesn’t stop there then a regular Butterfly would be done by 2971, 50 points higher. I’d rather the SPX reversing around 2921 and going down to trade below 2876 again, as that would favor the odds of this still being an Intermediate wave 4. If SPX goes up to 2971, even though the pattern would still be bearish, by then it would be more probable this is an Intermediate wave 5, and said pattern would only cause a pullback as in a wave 4 of Minor degree.

    There’s also a bearish pattern almost done in the DJI index:

    Said pattern would be done forming at 26,290 or little lower, considering that the point B of said patern fell short of the ideal Fib line by about 110 points.
    IF DJI reverses at point D, then it would not reach the January high, reinforcing the possibility we are still in a wave 4 of intermediate degree in both the DJI and the SPX. If the pattern gets busted however and new ATH are printed in the DJI, most probably Intermediate wave 5 is underway.

    Interesting next 2 months, as I said…

    • alexhartley1 says:

      Interesting charts. Thanks. I like the possibility of the corrective ending diagonal playing out. A drop back to 2500-2600 to complete an intermediate iv flat (finished before the mid-term elections) allows for an int. v to play out through 2019 and into last quarter 2019 for a bull market top.

  12. Theodore Lerts says:

    As I said yesterday:

    “Big rally coming tomorrow (SPX)…”

    Just keep tightening stops and enjoy the ride

  13. lunker1 says:

    Hi Tony does yesterday’s 10pt drop count as wave 8 and we are now in 9?

  14. fionamargaret says:

    DWT….short oil….down to 60
    DGLD…..short gold….down to 95 GLD
    SQQQ
    TZA

  15. fxaprendiz says:

    SL raised to BE now on my SPX 2897 long.
    I know ascribe 50/50 odds to the upmove from April 2nd being part of an Intermediate wave 4 or the Intermediate wave 5. The next 2 months will be interesting and should settle the matter once and for all.
    There are 2 big patterns in the SPX and DJI indices charts, almost complete. I’ll talk about them in next post.

  16. fotis2 says:

    FACT re:News
    WNU Editor:CNN is not interested in seeking the truth, they are more focused on convincing people on what they believe is the truth. And that in a nutshell is what is currently wrong with the U.S. main stream media when it comes to covering the news.

  17. phil1247 says:

    asa

    2916 looks good if triangle and post triangle thrust

  18. phil1247 says:

    asa

    RE GDX

    if long from yesterdays dip
    looks like nice am pop to sell into

    see GDX chart i posted below this am

    very technical ie excellent trading
    almost to the penny !

    • phil…I’ve been watching GDX this morning. Re NUGT…almost took the 50% retrace at around $14.22 at around10:30 but didn’t see any support and then broke through the 61.8%. Also $GOLD looks like I wants to test 1205.10…NOT INTERESTED IN GDX/NUGT TODAY.

      • phil1247 says:

        yes

        as posted ….all i was looking for was an am pop in hugt to sell into

        you got that at 10 am
        dumped it all there near 50% resistance
        keep watching for more opportunites

        ps i use GDX for levels and trade NUGT
        gdx works almost to the penny … nugt not as good

  19. gary61b says:

    ES possible this is nano iv of micro 3 of minute iii.

  20. phil1247 says:

    freddie …..

    re EURO

    see why i liked this draw better for ext short ?
    oval was smack in the middle and perfect touches of .38 and .5 levels

  21. Page says:

    Be careful if you are long it will bite you if you are not, we have pullback in progress,

  22. fxaprendiz says:

    My SPX 2897 reversed and now long from same level. The overbought condition in the hourly TSI resolved by marking time more than pulling back. Again a tactical long, although this might be the last one.

  23. Theodore Lerts says:

    Big rally coming tomorrow (SPX) and taking us well into next week. Good luck everyone.

  24. schizo1688 says:

    Watching Vxx and tvix, they traded quite similar before end of Jan ..

  25. lets see if the 1:30 moving window gets us a 10 point drop for a run up to 2920 this week

  26. phil1247 says:

    chris…
    i want to exit longs into any pops going forward now
    small series down has appeared
    extension i showed is still good

    ie shorts are not advised

  27. Holly Silver says:

    Silly to look for any retrace here. Most powerful move yet. Classic blow off and I am betting 2942 is the target. Dollar, no matter how hard the administration tries will not stall the dollars rise. next target is 96. 10 year will also hit 3.2% soon.

    Now GOOGLE is being investigated because they seem to present real facts first on their search engine. GOP “hell” list of 2 dozen indictable investigations not being pursued and expected to with a change in the house leadership party. GOP made up the list. Wonder why they think these are going to be investigated? Trump pretending Mexico deal is final leaving out Canada. Will never pass congress as is. The actual benefits as opposed to original NAFTA deal is zero. Trump refuses to talk to China over trade. Petulant child was forced twice to lower flag to half-mask.

    I will be gone by Sept. 1st since my prediction of an auto trade war with EU seems unlikely.

    I expect this post to be deleted anyway since the new reality is anything that bothers your conscience can be suppressed. Imagine daily barrage of WH antics being wiped out so easily. GOOGLE better watch out!

    Small retrace over next 2 days followed by last fast push to 2942.

  28. fionamargaret says:

    DWT…..short oil to 60….
    DGLD…short gold….to 95 GLD
    TVIX, and VXX on occasion…

    • fionamargaret says:

      Oil may go higher but not yet…down to 60 first…
      Gold is going down a bunch……see above….
      Money to be made….xx

  29. gary61b says:

    ES, lets see if 2899.75 is the pivot to turn down again?

  30. quickrick38 says:

    Getting closer and closer to what could well be a “3 of 3 of 3” 🙂 (In this 5th wave)
    My counts thus far:



    Good luck to all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        • fionamargaret says:

          Marilyn is for everyone, for surely we all loved her.

          I really like the orchestration and sound mixing of this Aerosmith song .Totally masterful.

          When I wrote a couple of lines in Rex Makin’s obituary, it had nothing to do with music, although the interesting thing is, he was the lawyer for Brian Epstein (and the Beatles), and lived next door to Epstein’s mother.
          I knew him only in legal matters and only met him a couple of times when he was older, but he had many stories to tell. Anyone who is British know of the Bulger and Brady cases he represented….
          He had many detractors, so I dwelt on his originality and colourful characteristics in the writing in his obituary….x

  31. Page says:

    Tomorrow is the beginning of SPX reversal.

  32. Bud Fox says:

    Anyone, know how Tony’s health is coming along? We wish you the best Tony,,,Bud

  33. Bud Fox says:

    SP500 cash. well. my SP chart, is not special, in any way. Therefore, when
    I see SP graph. at 2895. The char pattern is that of a 5th wave advance, that is
    clearly well into a final 5th wave, that is ending….
    What I am suggesting then, Is that the SP is very near a major price top, ie 3,000.
    Yes, I do expect a strong resistance for price, to exceed the 3K level, but we are
    in-fact, nearing a very major price top…period…

    • Bud Fox says:

      8/27 close, SP at 2896 is now breaking out above, my upper Bollingerband.
      Normally, this is a signal of a sell, developing

      • phil1247 says:

        6. Tags of the bands are just that, tags not signals. A tag of the upper Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a sell signal. A tag of the lower Bollinger Band is NOT in-and-of-itself a buy signal.

        7. In trending markets price can, and does, walk up the upper Bollinger Band and down the lower Bollinger Band.

        8. Closes outside the Bollinger Bands are initially continuation signals, not reversal signals. (This has been the basis for many successful volatility breakout systems.)

        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

        bud .. the above is right from the horses mouth ….

        ie John Bollinger .

        this is how we can get to 3000 straight up….
        .. by staying outside the upper bollinger band
        the last thing i want to see now is a pullback inside the bands

        just bum rush it straight up to 3034 please 😉

  34. well , my observation is if we gap up over 2900 them micro 2 endend and in micro 3 straight up to 2950. open up around 2885 and move higher from there then 1 more up before a 50ish point pull back.

    Good luck all

  35. emuntrader says:

    3 of iii of 3.
    Many counts still on the board. Agreeing with Tony’s Analysis.

    Thanks for all you do, Tony – You have been the voice of reason through this sideways mess.
    I have a some fib targets coming in at the 3100’s and 3300’s, Do you think those numbers are a bit optimistic for this market?

    Thinking a 20% sell off from the 3300’s would put us back to the high volume areas in the mid 2600’s.

    any thoughts…

  36. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  37. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX short taken at 2897 for no good reason other than unconfirmed resistance.

    SPX hit the weekly Fib resistance 3 line and the hourly TSI is at 73. It rarely stays above 70 for more than a few hours before rolling over.
    Although I don’t think we are out of the woods just yet. It seems like the high of the week will be closer to the weekly Fib R4 line around 2915. If SPX finds support at R2 (2883) I’ll reverse and go long.

  38. Satisfied, for now; any mini or any 4 or IV of a fifth could be tricky. Exiting long therm long and swapping on short therm humble position. Cheers and thanks Tony.

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