Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -138

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets have declined 1.4%, and the European markets have declined 2.1%. It has been a volatile week in the US so far. Monday: a rally to SPX 2843 was quickly followed by a decline to 2820. On Tuesday the market gapped up, hit SPX 2843 again, and then gapped down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2802. Then before the day was over the SPX rallied to 2822, and closed at 2818.

The decline from last Tuesday’s uptrend high at SPX 2863 continues to work its way lower. First we had three waves down to SPX 2820: 2826-2843-2820. Then a rally to SPX 2843. Now a straight line down to SPX 2802. If we count the first decline, 2863-2820, as an A. The rally to 2843 as a B. Now this decline as a C. C equals A at SPX 2800. Which is also close to our pullback targets of the low-upper 2790’s, and right in the range of the 2798 OEW pivot. The short term chart indicators suggest a bit more downside. But the decline is already sufficient for a Minute ii wave of Minor 3.

Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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329 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks and love to Tony……and everyone xx

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  2. phil1247 says:

    Mary…..

    i did not forget about you at 3 o clock today
    and especially with the name that you have
    i have faith His answer will be yes

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  3. aahmichael says:

    I haven’t mentioned anything about gold or the 10yr in the past 11 months, since I got short both at the beginning of last Sept. I realize that very few people who post here put on longer term positions, which is why I’ve waited until tonight to make new comments. Both markets are at critical junctures.

    The 10yr has a 5:3:5 wave structure up from the July 2016 lows. It also has a monthly downward resistance TL that began in Jan 2000, was touched in June 2007, and then touched again 3 months ago in mid-May. Resistance has held so far.

    I have no idea what the count in gold is. There are too many potential counts to mention. It has an upward supporting TL that began at the Feb 2006 lows and has been touched several times since then, however, it’s yet to be broken on a monthly closing basis. The last time gold had a monthly close below that TL was Dec 2005. The last time it was touched was Dec 2015, and came close to being touched in Dec 2016, but this week the market has not only touched the line, it’s now broken down below the line.

    If either market closes beyond their TLs this month or in the months ahead, then things could get very ugly very fast in both markets.Overbought/oversold doesn’t mean anything with these kinds of setups. I’m giving both of them a chance to close outside their lines, but I realize that this could also be a stick save moment in both markets. Long term TLs put up a good fight. That’s how they become long term.

    The reason I initially put on the positions was because both markets were at exhaustion points, but 2 weeks after entering the positions the FED announced their intentions to start QT, so at that point I decided they were going to be long term positions, and I see no signs of QT going away any time soon.

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  4. bouraq says:

    Chart of the day is $NASDAQ at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

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  5. jobjas says:

    NDX in wave 4

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  6. Jack kendo says:

    Tony thanks
    What’s your take on the housing index?
    Never recovered and nearly 20% down from the Jan top. Is it in the bear market territory?
    Housing is most people’s biggest assets. Not bode well for the stock market if it’s into the bear ground.
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/chartbook/133086384
    cheers!

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  7. scottycj1 says:

    I have a CIT tomorrow, but I believe the train (as happens quite a bit) may have already left the station. If the count im using is right we are about to launch into 3 of 3 and many of the players were buying big today which is why we didnt get to my target of 2797. At important turns, those in the know usually get in a bit early….that appeared to be the case today. New highs coming soon to a market near you.

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  8. rd3777 says:

    Should know tonight if this count is right

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    • torehund says:

      Based on my Naz count there might still be a bit downside retrace of the wave that started in July, wave e is missing. After hat is could be off to the races…

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  9. Thanks, Tony! Excellent pivots and outlook

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