Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -138

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets have declined 1.4%, and the European markets have declined 2.1%. It has been a volatile week in the US so far. Monday: a rally to SPX 2843 was quickly followed by a decline to 2820. On Tuesday the market gapped up, hit SPX 2843 again, and then gapped down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2802. Then before the day was over the SPX rallied to 2822, and closed at 2818.

The decline from last Tuesday’s uptrend high at SPX 2863 continues to work its way lower. First we had three waves down to SPX 2820: 2826-2843-2820. Then a rally to SPX 2843. Now a straight line down to SPX 2802. If we count the first decline, 2863-2820, as an A. The rally to 2843 as a B. Now this decline as a C. C equals A at SPX 2800. Which is also close to our pullback targets of the low-upper 2790’s, and right in the range of the 2798 OEW pivot. The short term chart indicators suggest a bit more downside. But the decline is already sufficient for a Minute ii wave of Minor 3.

Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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329 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    reef SP500….not so sure the SP is, as strong, as some would have it, at this juncture

  2. torehund says:

    2s are stacked, which way it resolves nobody knows. At any rate enjoy your weekend Tony and all😎

  3. hohoho598 says:

    Haven’t bothered posting here, moderation is ridiculous. Too many “sensitive souls” that suffer a little bit of paranoia when their told their analysis is wrong.
    The political posts…. well their just as irrelevant as the analysis paralysis.
    Who needs to post anyways when there is soooo much money being made on both sides, that’s what good trading is ppl. Geez these buy and holders who call themselves traders.
    Lets see if this gets through LOL

  4. fxaprendiz says:

    Update for the weekend on SPX.
    It is now fully trading within the target area determined by the bullish Max Bat pattern

    However there’s another potential pattern forming on the other side, and this would be bearish

    The SPX is already trading within its Potential Reversal Zone. So basically it’s a battle between these two opposing patterns now, reflecting the struggle of both bears and bulls to maintain their corresponding positions.
    I wish I could plainly say that the bearish pattern will win easily but there’s a couple caveats. First, this pattern may as well morph into a Shark 2, bringing SPX up to the area represented by the yellow rectangle. Second, the daily cycle is currently not clear. When SPX hit the low on Wednesday the cycle was 34 days long, well within the timing band for a daily cycle low, which usually runs from days 30 to 45. So this may be a temporary bounce with the final low for this cycle still to come in next 2 weeks, or we may already be in day 2 of a new cycle, in which case the odds favor at least a few more days of upside before rolling over.
    All these current question marks are part of the reason for me hedging my 2850 short at 2835.
    A SPX close next week under today’s low of 2832 would confirm the bearish pattern as completed and strengthen the bearish case, and I would unhedge my short position then.

  5. scottycj1 says:

    23 points from a new ATH…..shouldnt take long next week to get there……

    Have a great weekend

  6. fxaprendiz says:

    I got now 3 posts awaiting moderation 😦
    No matter how I fix my original post, it can’t get through now. Too bad one can’t express how frustrated I am. Ok, last attempt, Holly stay away from me. I am serious and I mean it.

  7. fxaprendiz says:

    My reply to Holly/Leibowitz, that got into moderation. I took out the bad word.
    “You can’t take a hint when Tony and other people told you to stay away. You can’t take a straight NO when he banned your other nick, Leibowitz. Now I’m telling you straight to your face, stay out of my posts! Other people may find you amusing but not me, so get away from me.”

  8. fxaprendiz says:

    My reply to Holly/Leibowitz, that got into moderation. I took out the bad word.
    “You can’t take a hint when Tony and other people told you to stay away. You can’t take a straight NO when he banned your other nick, Leibowitz. Now I’m telling you straight to your face, stay ** out of my posts! Other people may find you amusing but not me, so get ** away from me.”

  9. fxaprendiz says:

    My answer to Holly’s reply to one of my posts, when it was not addressed to him, got trapped in moderation limbo.
    Basically I told him in unequivocal words to stay away from my posts. I used one bad word, although with asterics, to make my point get across as he doesn’t understand with kind words.
    If he keeps getting on the way of my posts then I’ll stop writing in here. I’m sure many will say there’s not much lost and will prefer his company. oh well.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Dude whatever he/she/they posts please just ignore and carry on posting. You’re one of the few on here who’s calling the intraday moves on the SPX really well on both sides at the moment so your posts are invaluable

    • fionamargaret says:

      FX, I agree with McG…love your work.
      Just stick to charts and commentary and you will not be moderated…at least that is my take.
      Have a lovely weekend, and don’t let stuff get to you..x

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Thanks for the advice, mcg and fiona.
      It’s just that this Leibowitz/Holly character really gets on my nerves, especially after upon his return with his second alias he wrote at the end of his post, and I quote “TONY, you forgot to ban Holly Silver. See ya……..” unquote
      That was incredibly sarcastic and unkind to our host. It shows he just wants to raise havoc and doesn’t respect the person being so patient to him. That’s why there’s no consideration or pity from me towards this clown now. How can Tony keep being so patient to him is beyond me.
      Anyway, I’ll try to take upon your advice and carry on posting. But he better stays out of my way.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      You guys are right and I’ll take you on your advice.
      I wrote a lengthier reply but it’s awaiting moderation as well 🙂

  10. Jack kendo says:

    2853 gap filled.
    added shorts 2851, 2852, 2853, 2854, 2855 as planned.
    2864 i will be wrong.
    cheers!

  11. Lee x says:

    And then there’s the pivots

    Hey Tony

    See ya tomorrow
    Thx sir

  12. NEWBIE says:

    Bad news coming over the weekend, many bag holders to be had thinking we are headed for new highs.

  13. phil1247 says:

    upside explosion
    63 then 86 es

    Holly i have tried to show you how this works

    it has nothing to do with fundamentals or NEWS

    someday you will see the light

    • phil1247 says:

      ok chris

      i guess you can take it from here

      have a great weekend Tony
      and everybody ….
      and keep Mary in your prayers

      • chrisk44342 says:

        Thought it would be helpful to describe my thought process, along with any EW context:
        Looking at the overnight high-to-low, measured to 2837.75, we had a .50 retracement that hit the target to the T, but did not surpass it. Then, this morning, the market retraced to .50 again and I went short. For context, I know that between Tony’s resistance levels and the possibility that we had a minute wave iv happening, there was a decent chance we could retest 2832 on spx. Unfortunately, as shown on the chart, my stop at .618 got nicked. I probably made it a little too tight so that’s on me. However, when moved back down past .50, I went short again and unloaded most of my position at 2837. Why? Because a) we had violated .618 by a tick and b) this is friday in the summer, and trading sucks for those reasons. I held onto a contract and it got stopped out at BE. The market then took out .618 cleanly, giving me cover to start looking for a hwb trade to the long side. Did I think about a minute wave iv or the resistance levels? No, both were still on the table regardless. EW is at the back of my mind. It’s there for context. Going into the PM trade i was up a little, not much. In the PM session we got the HWB (see below) and I again took most of my position off at the prior high, but got rewarded on 1 contract at the target. Good trading day for a summer friday. Hope this helped someone.

        This is why, when Phil is saying ‘2832 is on the table’, it shouldn’t be taken literally. I had no idea if 2832 would be hit. I have zero conviction in anything.

        https://invst.ly/8cy88 AM chart
        https://invst.ly/8cy7a PM chart

    • schizo1688 says:

      Straight up or nothing ! 😝 .. thanks phil

  14. mcgcapital says:

    I have FTSE as possibly being in the early stages of a bear market here. I don’t do Elliott wave, I find it introduces bias a bit too much. Prefer to focus on market levels and acceptance above/below them.

    Here’s what I can see on various timeframes.

    Monthly:
    https://imgur.com/a/PmP4kod

    Looks like a loss of momentum which started around June 2017 when we hit 7600 for the first time. We basically took 6 months to break that, then managed to make it to 7800 in January before failing and falling right back through last year’s trading range down to 6800s. Subsequently we rallied back and made a new high on negative RSI divergence at 7900 in May, rejecting a long term trendline in the process. The breakout above 7800 lasted only 2 days, and we then sold off back to 7600. Since then we haven’t managed to make it back above 7800 despite at least half a dozen attempts, so price is getting strongly rejected at resistance. The failure to breakout had me on the lookout for a breakdown of the recent trading range of 7500-7800 as a sign we might be heading for a big drop, and that’s arrived this week. Given we’ve already recovered from one drop in February, if another one comes I’d be less confident about another run back at the highs subsequently coming and the technical set up would be far more dangerous.

    Weekly:
    https://imgur.com/a/h0E5tpU

    It can be seen that until this week we’ve closed the week at around 7670 for a remarkable 8 weeks in a row. This week we’re down at 7560. I’d have thought that there was some significance to this and that it will be difficult for the market to make it back up to the top of the trading range now. It can also be seen that we made a new low below the recent trading range at 7460 on Wednesday, and the bounce back hasn’t managed to reclaim any levels of significance.

    Daily:
    https://imgur.com/a/1fqXiXP

    The daily is showing that we made fresh lows at 7460 and have then bounced last two days, yet to reclaim 7600 from below. If we fail short of 7600 and roll over then break 7490, I think a waterfall decline could happen. Thinking that will come on a break of 2800 SPX. 7300, 7100, 6930 and 6840 are the levels of note to watch on the downside if it happens.

    4 hourly:
    https://imgur.com/a/HrBt7Ln

    4 hourly shows we had a rebound yesterday and today, but haven’t retraced wednesday’s drop yet. I want to see this 7560-7600 area hold to keep the immediate drop potential in place.

    • scottycj1 says:

      Here some more of your scientific, unemotional analysis from yesterday “Feeling”

      mcgcapital says:
      August 16, 2018 at 11:49 am

      Yeah they have for sure.. but 2018 feels different to any of the other years in it. Basically at the moment we have a daily battle for control between the US and the rest of the world. Corporate America doing great, tax cut and earnings with US growth best of the bunch. But everything else is falling apart now.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Eh? What’s your point? I said we have a battle for control, which we do.. yesterday was a strong up day, today’s a new day.. and we haven’t followed through on yesterday’s momentum. So not only have I not said anything silly, it’s also played out as expected so far.

        At least I post invalidation points on where to get out if wrong which is the key to successful trading. You don’t need to as the moon is never wrong is it 😂

  15. cj32 says:

    Cr,to CBZ

  16. Lee x says:

    Ahhhhh the internet

  17. Anne Day says:

    TSLR is like TVIX these days. Iooks like it wants to shake off something 🙂

    • fionamargaret says:

      Anne, I was out with the Dachshunds and there through the trees, we spied the fox.
      He was wearing his usual bright blue trousers with the suspenders, and his fitted red jacket with the shiny gold buttons, but nothing in his demeanour suggested “odd”.
      “All in perception” he quietly whispered as he passed….x

  18. fionamargaret says:

    Think we have a C down, and if you are interested in how I buy/sell, I work out the sequence that is being played, put in bids and play for the day, until there is a determined progression/regression.

    DGLD….up to around 100, (UGLD has a suggestion of down to 4)
    DWT as I think oil is going to 59/60 (but I have been wrong once before….)
    VXX as I think down for the indices

  19. phil1247 says:

    prepare for upside explosion in 3 of 3 up ….es

  20. fxaprendiz says:

    My 2850 short just hedged at 2835.
    It seems like SPX wants to tag that 0.786 Fib level at 2852-54 before rolling over. This will probably happen next Monday.
    I know it doesn’t look like it now, but this SPX bounce is actually a gift to go short with a controlled risk for the next months. In hindsight people will wish they had gone short, but right now most are looking up.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Flat 7th day of drop is typical of a deeper drop over next two sessions. 2760 is a good guess. IF however we start the slide before the day is out it means a much larger drop and one that will only have a rebound or retrace on approx. Wednesday followed by even more drops. TODAY has to continue on the upside, especially nearing the close.

  21. Jack kendo says:

    two ways to count the wave ii, second one as an expanded flat.
    we are in the early stage of wave iii down, next week should accelerate down.

    shorted at 2845, 2846, 2847, 2848, 2849, 2850 on 08/16, as posted real time.
    cheers!

  22. purplember says:

    Micro wave 1 completed at 2852. in micro wave 2 now to 2821 – 2833 range. anyone else with that count ??

  23. phil1247 says:

    GDX…..

    look where the gap up today went back to test
    its the – .618 target of the traditional short…

    some may remember this …..
    ” almost impossible to go thru -.618 target without a bounce first “

  24. Ashley says:

    Pivot Time =) Just tried a long at 2836 =)

  25. emuntrader says:

    Cycles were revised a bit. They have us going up into Monday. Yesterday’s strong rally may have done some damage to the bears. Will use the weekend to look things over.
    I have a some field work today, so will be out of the office majority of the day. Sitting on the sidelines.
    Best of Luck

  26. NDX lagging in leadership, challenged perhaps by Health care sector.

    1 year, XLV versus spx and NDX 100, NDX clearly strongest, in the recent past.

    Perhaps now shifting, –> view of past 3 months.

    XLF has a 3X (CURE) similar to TQQQ.
    But seems CURE has more time decay than TQQQ.

    GLTA

  27. phil1247 says:

    gc

    bullish above 1175 with target at 1194
    above there and latecomer gold bears
    are going to be scrambling to cover
    most aggressive ext short has already failed

  28. fotis2 says:

    SPX BTD mode Oil and Gold will update on Mon-Tues could be a buy op will update with old/new

  29. Bud Fox says:

    Tony…have a great weekend, and above all — stay Healthy……Bud

  30. phil1247 says:

    es

    bear below 44
    target 35 then 32

    • phil1247 says:

      there is strong potential support at 27 which i expect to hold
      good place to exit shorts and reverse to long for rogues

    • schizo1688 says:

      Thanks phil !!

      • phil1247 says:

        welcome schizo
        but you already knew all that right ?

        • schizo1688 says:

          not really, i still have a day job, but i am very appreciated for all your help.thanks again

          • Many are Phil, thanks for posting these numbers you see as important

            • Holly Silver says:

              es 2833 line in sand. Any lower should quickly gap down. Not even a two day rally? not bullish in my mind, but hey everyone thinks I am crazy. Bought Puts and will add more if this slide continues. LOGIC is the market. The massive amount of money flow and players takes time to align. That’s where the individual can always be in front of it. 2016 was a perfect example. The last 2 big drops over trade war was also. Every ammunition available to spike this market has been used and at a huge cost down the road.

              Most play the past moves and emotional hysteria. How long since our last recession? how long does the DOW stay below its highs? How high does the dollar need to go to kill this off? how high does the 10 year treasury yield need to go? Can China cause major disruption in our markets just by dumping treasuries? 2 trillion to the very top with nothing to improve fundamentals?

              ES 2832 – if that hits expect a gap down slide. One of the longest and steepest Bull markets and everyone here still sees a strong market with little in it’s way? LOGIC! I was logical in 2016 and most here was not. In fact your fervor for a crash then was something to behold.

              • Holly Silver says:

                pretty pattern since the 9th. A triangle where many here see as a sign for a breakout. I see the exact opposite. Currently holding at 2835. This triangle pattern should break off if we have that rally.

  31. mcgcapital says:

    Bears regaining control in Europe, back down again now with neckline at 2800

  32. vivelaamo says:

    Any mention of spx beautifully bouncing off previous strong resistance? 💪🏽

    Looks bullish to me. Expect new all time highs in the next few weeks. September last year was a beauty. Hope to see the same again.

  33. Holly Silver says:

    Forget EW. Forget trying to see any prior year with a similar pattern. there isn’t any. Made good money on these moves so far with the assumption we have a 10 or 11 day drop and the last 3 start the slide in earnest. DOW already hit the longest correction period in over 60 years. Bias determines how you view this years events. Me, I see a market built on toothpicks rising on mountains of debt, wild west lawlessness and lax rules. If 2 trillion throwaway 6 months ago hasn’t pushed this market past it’s old highs what in the future will? I deal in logic and this isn’t logical. Can earnings continue despite isolationist policy and a mandate that other nations bend for our benefit? Maybe. That’s why I believe tomorrow is another important “TELL”. Higher and I throw in the towel. Flat or lower and I bet heavy for a deep drop thru Tuesday.

    TONY, you forgot to ban Holly Silver. See ya……..

    • torehund says:

      There is no common sense Logic to the stockmarket, if there was it would be easy😳 If there were Logic how could a share decline from a trillion per share down to a small fraction of a dollar and still not be considered worth buying ?

    • fxaprendiz says:

      Have some self-respect. Tony banned you for a reason. Get the message and get out of here.

    • vivelaamo says:

      I hope Tony doesn’t ban you. I enjoy your rants and want to see what rubbish you spout when you end up being horribly wrong yet again!

      • Holly Silver says:

        Explain away 2016. When I mention that date there is a complete vacuum. Are we in deep space? nah, even there we find dark energy. LOGIC on MY part was declared BEFORE the market turned around. Yes Logic. I suppose a nuclear war would just be a coincidence that the world markets crashed at the same time. Golly gee, we humans aren’t the brightest. Imagine the head of the second largest economy of the world playing dictator and demanding the world bow to him. YOU think that has no implication on earnings or market direction?

        • SPYtrader says:

          Imagine the head of the second largest economy of the world from 2008-2016 going around the world bowing and kneeling before every leader on the planet asking for forgiveness to the U.S. Huh, who knew being a gutless wonder would make the market go straight up.

  34. torehund says:

    Daily Spx macd oscillator could soon hoock up and the correction looks like a wave 2 bottom. Negative histogram has benn running for quite some time, soon ready to put on positive bars. Market continues to look very strong for Spx.
    Dow weekly macd has bottom fed for a longer period, when it hoocks in earnest it will explode upwards, very promising indeed😎🔝

  35. Tony,
    if the Dow stay sideways 23-26k for example,on a long congestion,not making new highs,this would change the count to major 2 wave instead of IV?it is a hypothetical question
    ciao
    thanks

    https://invst.ly/8ck6p
    https://invst.ly/8ckdu
    https://invst.ly/8clv6

  36. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/aapls_quarterly_price_pattern/
    Thanks Tom McClellan

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/46901930-a397-4a12-879c-476a60d93a19.pdf
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and love to Tony….and well, yes everyone…xx

    A few moments of Russian introductions as this was the Tchaikovsky Competition…but this was the gold medal winner…what were you doing at 12….x

    • fionamargaret says:

      I needed to see a doctor as I had the same bronchial symptoms I had had in Scotland.
      I walked into this office and knowing no-one, the receptionist suggested I see a Dr Hagen.
      It turned out he had come from Scotland many years previously.
      He asked me to come work for him. “I have no experience in the medical field” I said.
      “Splendid” he replied. “I am trying an experiment at the hospital across the street, and I want fresh ideas”.
      “We have a new ward we are calling the “Prototype Ward”, where we are having both male and female patients together, all with diverse medical conditions.
      I would like you to work with an IBM programmer, and just tell him your ideas.
      Also while we have you, do look at the Pharmacy, Operating Room systems etc., and let us know how everything could come together more efficiently.”

      The study took me two years, but the recollections I have top of mind, were how much the surgeons wanted me to watch their work, and how much one became attached to the patients, who were stripped of any ego in their open-backed gowns.
      We had chemotherapy patients too, and I asked how they managed to keep their sprits up.
      “Always think of it as one day. If you look into the distance it becomes overwhelming”.
      Good advice for anyone.
      Let’s just do this day the very best we can…..I think it is called “living in the moment”….x

      • Jack Sparrow says:

        always the wise one

        • fionamargaret says:

          It is really nice to see you back posting Jack.

          • Fiona…..Eckhart Tolle is music to my ears ! The NOW is a true luxury.
            That said…… I am guessing GDXJ has done most of it’s washout, & I’m buying more long dated calls……

            • fionamargaret says:

              I think there may be a counter-trend rally in gold, miners etc David…JNUG is much more promising than NUGT, but would really like gold and miners to stick to the numbers’ script and become completely washed out…and then a monster…..I hope you do really well xx

              • Fiona, thank you always…….. I actually got some inexpensive JNUG $20 calls for Jan 2019 today. Nice start…..we shall see…… I have plenty of provisions in case. (I know, it’s levered on levered, but let’s have some fun)

  37. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Moderation in limbo last night.. 🤔
    GC ~ @ Yearly Support ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/mAGxLqUA/
    CL ~ Back Test YTFZ ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/8gB5CO3O/
    SPX ~ Bullish As Ever ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7IHA0x4/

  38. Jack kendo says:

    when in doubt, resolve in DOW.

    DOW is bearish!
    cheers!

    • E says:

      Seems like tomorrow may be a do or die day.

    • cj32 says:

      Jack,
      Daily RSI at 63.52 with positive divergence, is it a concern to your bearish outlook?

      • Jack kendo says:

        pound the facts from all, it’s bearish.
        after the close, i am surprised to see oew updated with a 1-2-i-ii, that’s with super bullish iii of 3 to come. what’s the catalysts?
        some daily loudest bears capitulated in hiding…no bear left, wiped out by one day wonder.
        cheers!

        • cj32 says:

          “i am surprised to see oew updated with a 1-2-i-ii, that’s with super bullish iii of 3 to come.” what’s the catalysts?
          Agree.. not expecting super bullish move but highly likely to move towards 2874-2915 for structure completion from here at 2840.69. GL

          • cj32 says:

            Per CBZ, he thinks it may have formed an ending diagonal triangle with 1-2-3-4 and now in a final 5th Wave (unless this leg becomes super impulsive after the next small 25-35 points pullback from 2864-74 area) EDTs are structure terminating patterns and will start a deep correction after, toward 2594

            • Jack Sparrow says:

              not that I agree or disagree with oew count but hey the trigger could be if Chinese delegation move up their date of arrival to Us…..

            • floyd drummer says:

              cj32,

              question: aren’t EDT 3-3-3-3-3? wave 3 seems more complex than 3 waves?

              thx for comments, …always enjoy what CBZ has to offer.

              GL

              • cj32 says:

                Fd,
                He has three probabilities wants to wait for more price action for further determination.
                question: aren’t EDT 3-3-3-3-3? Yes

  39. Jack kendo says:

    one way or another.

    cheers!

  40. mtu MTU says:

    The potential development of a head-and-shoulders pattern (bearish) or a triangle (bullish) in SPX brings interesting interpretations of the bigger picture. See charts.
    https://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/

  41. jobjas says:

    some see 5 waves down ;others 5 wave up – how does one decide ?
    Since no wave is a stand alone wave and is related to the previous wave ; decide whether 2554 was the larger wave 4 bottom .
    In fact if one can reasonably predict wave 4 of any wave (of any degree) one has crossed a major hurdle in labeling EW.

  42. S&P has performed volatile whipsaw oscillations from one day to the next in moves of ever increasing magnitude this week. One day to go.

  43. jobjas says:

    SPX to 2865 for wave 3

  44. emuntrader says:

    In Cash.
    Since we started the quotes.

    He who runs away today, can live to runaway another day.
    Maverick, LOL

    Price action a bit strong today. One stop and one small profit today.

    Best of luck.

  45. Lee x says:

    Covering shorts in JCP
    I have mixed feelings about this company as they did give me my start in mens underwear modeling

  46. now im routing for the bears. Push it down under 2840

  47. emuntrader says:

    Hey Tony, Does today price action look more impulsive or correct to you. Or are you scratching you head the same as I? LOL

Comments are closed.