Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -138

For the first three days of the week the Asian markets have declined 1.4%, and the European markets have declined 2.1%. It has been a volatile week in the US so far. Monday: a rally to SPX 2843 was quickly followed by a decline to 2820. On Tuesday the market gapped up, hit SPX 2843 again, and then gapped down on Wednesday hitting SPX 2802. Then before the day was over the SPX rallied to 2822, and closed at 2818.

The decline from last Tuesday’s uptrend high at SPX 2863 continues to work its way lower. First we had three waves down to SPX 2820: 2826-2843-2820. Then a rally to SPX 2843. Now a straight line down to SPX 2802. If we count the first decline, 2863-2820, as an A. The rally to 2843 as a B. Now this decline as a C. C equals A at SPX 2800. Which is also close to our pullback targets of the low-upper 2790’s, and right in the range of the 2798 OEW pivot. The short term chart indicators suggest a bit more downside. But the decline is already sufficient for a Minute ii wave of Minor 3.

Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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329 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Bud Fox says:

    reef SP500….not so sure the SP is, as strong, as some would have it, at this juncture

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  2. torehund says:

    2s are stacked, which way it resolves nobody knows. At any rate enjoy your weekend Tony and all😎

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  3. hohoho598 says:

    Haven’t bothered posting here, moderation is ridiculous. Too many “sensitive souls” that suffer a little bit of paranoia when their told their analysis is wrong.
    The political posts…. well their just as irrelevant as the analysis paralysis.
    Who needs to post anyways when there is soooo much money being made on both sides, that’s what good trading is ppl. Geez these buy and holders who call themselves traders.
    Lets see if this gets through LOL

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  4. fxaprendiz says:

    Update for the weekend on SPX.
    It is now fully trading within the target area determined by the bullish Max Bat pattern

    However there’s another potential pattern forming on the other side, and this would be bearish

    The SPX is already trading within its Potential Reversal Zone. So basically it’s a battle between these two opposing patterns now, reflecting the struggle of both bears and bulls to maintain their corresponding positions.
    I wish I could plainly say that the bearish pattern will win easily but there’s a couple caveats. First, this pattern may as well morph into a Shark 2, bringing SPX up to the area represented by the yellow rectangle. Second, the daily cycle is currently not clear. When SPX hit the low on Wednesday the cycle was 34 days long, well within the timing band for a daily cycle low, which usually runs from days 30 to 45. So this may be a temporary bounce with the final low for this cycle still to come in next 2 weeks, or we may already be in day 2 of a new cycle, in which case the odds favor at least a few more days of upside before rolling over.
    All these current question marks are part of the reason for me hedging my 2850 short at 2835.
    A SPX close next week under today’s low of 2832 would confirm the bearish pattern as completed and strengthen the bearish case, and I would unhedge my short position then.

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  5. scottycj1 says:

    23 points from a new ATH…..shouldnt take long next week to get there……

    Have a great weekend

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  6. fxaprendiz says:

    I got now 3 posts awaiting moderation 😦
    No matter how I fix my original post, it can’t get through now. Too bad one can’t express how frustrated I am. Ok, last attempt, Holly stay away from me. I am serious and I mean it.

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  7. fxaprendiz says:

    My reply to Holly/Leibowitz, that got into moderation. I took out the bad word.
    “You can’t take a hint when Tony and other people told you to stay away. You can’t take a straight NO when he banned your other nick, Leibowitz. Now I’m telling you straight to your face, stay out of my posts! Other people may find you amusing but not me, so get away from me.”

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  8. fxaprendiz says:

    My reply to Holly/Leibowitz, that got into moderation. I took out the bad word.
    “You can’t take a hint when Tony and other people told you to stay away. You can’t take a straight NO when he banned your other nick, Leibowitz. Now I’m telling you straight to your face, stay ** out of my posts! Other people may find you amusing but not me, so get ** away from me.”

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  9. fxaprendiz says:

    My answer to Holly’s reply to one of my posts, when it was not addressed to him, got trapped in moderation limbo.
    Basically I told him in unequivocal words to stay away from my posts. I used one bad word, although with asterics, to make my point get across as he doesn’t understand with kind words.
    If he keeps getting on the way of my posts then I’ll stop writing in here. I’m sure many will say there’s not much lost and will prefer his company. oh well.

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    • mcgcapital says:

      Dude whatever he/she/they posts please just ignore and carry on posting. You’re one of the few on here who’s calling the intraday moves on the SPX really well on both sides at the moment so your posts are invaluable

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    • fionamargaret says:

      FX, I agree with McG…love your work.
      Just stick to charts and commentary and you will not be moderated…at least that is my take.
      Have a lovely weekend, and don’t let stuff get to you..x

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    • fxaprendiz says:

      Thanks for the advice, mcg and fiona.
      It’s just that this Leibowitz/Holly character really gets on my nerves, especially after upon his return with his second alias he wrote at the end of his post, and I quote “TONY, you forgot to ban Holly Silver. See ya……..” unquote
      That was incredibly sarcastic and unkind to our host. It shows he just wants to raise havoc and doesn’t respect the person being so patient to him. That’s why there’s no consideration or pity from me towards this clown now. How can Tony keep being so patient to him is beyond me.
      Anyway, I’ll try to take upon your advice and carry on posting. But he better stays out of my way.

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    • fxaprendiz says:

      You guys are right and I’ll take you on your advice.
      I wrote a lengthier reply but it’s awaiting moderation as well 🙂

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