Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open – then decline, DOW -81

So far this week the Asian markets have lost 0.3%, and the European markets have lost 0.5%. US markets started the week at SPX 2819, dropped to 2798 on Monday, hit 2826 today, and then dropped to 2806 in the afternoon before closing at 2813. Not much progress here, or elsewhere this week.

We continue to look for the elusive impulse wave. The rally from late-June at SPX 2692 offers our best opportunity to date. Thus far we have four waves: 2743-2699-2848-2798, and a rally to 2826. If the rally can continue, before dropping back to 2798, and hit 2848 or higher we have out first impulse wave of the April uptrend. If the SPX fails to make higher highs, then a drop back to 2743, and lower, will likely follow. Inflection point.

Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day around neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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189 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Theodore Lerts says:

    Pay attention to the futures right now. Last 5 trading days, probably even longer. Look at ES just coil up in a 2-4 point range…That is extremely bullish, nearly 100% of the time. Getting ready for another huge launch up. Super easy money. Cheers.

  2. fionamargaret says:

    Here is Nate’s latest chart…..

    ….and Horowitz..I looked at the fingers of this marvellous ninety-odd year old man, and marvelled at his long fingers gently touching the keyboard, well trained to manage speed and torque…and ladies wept….x

    • torehund says:

      Fiona as we advance in age we are approaching a higher order thinking by looking and observing events and by enterpreting them, thats why mistakes at earlier age become so useful and also limiting…?
      To be naive and schooled by life at the same time; thats the trick, then you have the best of two worlds😯

      • fionamargaret says:

        I will tell you a true story.
        A gentleman who was quite well known in his field (and lived a few floors below me in my apartment block) asked me to come for tea.
        He greeted me and then locked the door behind me. He was drinking and offered me a glass which I took, but did not drink. I knew I had to get out of there, but we were about 13 floors above the ground, so I kept insisting he had more to drink until he passed out, and I got out of there.
        But that wasn’t all. When I came back to my apartment, there outside pacing the hall was the judge. He told me to come with him, and I followed him into his apartment.
        He asked why I would be going to any gentleman’s apartment for tea at 10.00 at night and expecting nothing to happen. He spared me nothing…
        The next day I met him outside my apartment, and he put his hands on my cheeks, and the words unspoken then, I understood.
        Sometimes it takes someone who sees the worst to protect those who just believe the best.

        • torehund says:

          Yes and the other way around, like in sweeden where a down syndrom kid of was shot by the police for wearing a toy gun. Balance of mind and temper is key to navigate in an unruly world, however any approach taken leaves no guarantees. Thats the game of life and without it we would bore ourselves to death in an oasis of predictability😜

          • fionamargaret says:

            Of course this happened quite a while ago when I was a new immigrant.
            He had been given certain perfunctory positions, of which he declared he had no idea of their everyday workings. Thus I became his voice in speeches, and he responded in kind by general counsel…….
            English law is quite different, with different turns of phrase, so we did draw swords occasionally, but that only served to show me he had allowed me to grow beyond master and pupil…..x

  3. Thanks Tony
    wave 4 could have been an incomplete triangle?
    is more frequent wave “e” surpass a bit the lower/upper trendline from what i have seen

  4. R D. says:

    The counter trend abc should be finished in the cash market and top in the futures Sunday night. A double top with divergences in most foreign markets.

  5. E says:

    Looks very close to a bullish breakout now… but there are some curiosities. Why are volume and A/D ratio still so subdued if we are about to break out in wave 3? Why did volatility start to increase in the final hour of trading even though stocks were still rising? Why have S&P and DOW become the leaders now; and NDX and RUT laggards? Shouldn’t there still be some larger pullback even if we are to continue on the bullish track? Lots of things that don’t make sense.

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