Weekend update

REVIEW

The week started at SPX 2802. After a lower open Monday, and a dip to SPX 2795, the market rallied to 2830 by Tuesday morning. A pullback quickly followed to SPX 2811 by Tuesday afternoon. Then the market rallied to SPX 2848 Wednesday. A larger pullback to SPX 2808 occurred on Friday. Then the market bounced to end the week at SPX 2819. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.1%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.9%. Economic reports for the week were mostly lower again. On the downtick: existing/new home sales, consumer sentiment, and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC statement, the ISMs, and payrolls.

LONG TERM: uptrend

While the leading NDX/NAZ continue to make new all-time highs, +14% and +12% YTD 2018, the lagging SPX/DOW, +5% and +3% YTD 2018, are working their way back to their January all-time highs. The SPX is about 2% shy of that level, and the DOW is about 5%. We would expect the DOW, and for that matter the NYSE and DJW, to make new all-time highs before looking for an end to this uptrend, and possibly this bull market as well. Our upside target since mid-2016 has been SPX 3000+ by 2018+.

This Major wave 1 bull market remains a simple Elliott Wave structure. A simple Int. wave i and Int. ii correction in the spring of 2016. Then a subdividing Int. wave iii. Minor waves 1 and 2 in the fall of 2016, and Minor waves 3 and 4 in the spring of 2017, then a Minor wave 5 / Int. wave iii top in January 2018. After that a three month correction for an Int. iv flat, alternating with the Int. ii zigzag. Currently an Int. wave v underway from the April low. Should Int. v be a simple structure, then the Major 1 bull market could end this year. And a Major wave 2, 15%-20%, bear market could follow. Should Int. v subdivide like Int. iii it could last into 2020. Stay tuned!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Int. wave v uptrend, which began in early-April at SPX 2554, has been making higher highs this month as it continues to extend. Even though this rally is the fourth since early-April. We are still looking for the internals to look impulsive, like all previous uptrends in this bull market. The first three rallies did not.

As noted in the recent weeks. The reason could have been that the three rallies were all part of a leading diagonal triangular first wave. Which would put this uptrend, after the wave 2 pullback by late-June, in a larger third wave now. Since third waves cannot unfold in diagonal triangles, the uptrend should start displaying impulsive internals now.

SHORT TERM

Wave 1, of this uptrend, whether a leading diagonal or the count posted on the hourly chart below, completed at SPX 2791. Then after a nearly 100-point pullback to SPX 2692 for wave 2, wave 3 was underway. Thus far, wave 3 has already advanced about 150-points. Internally, the advance has been four waves: 2743-2699-2848-2808.

At this point is where the previous three rallies failed. Instead of finding support for a 4th wave, and then rallying to a higher high. Their declines continued until they overlapped their 1st wave. If this were to occur again the current decline would continue to below SPX 2743, before rallying to SPX 2848. Impulsive or more corrective activity? We think impulsive. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher and gained 1.1%

European markets were nearly all higher and gained 1.5%.

The DJ World index gained 0.8%, and the NYSE gained 1.0%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds confirmed a downtrend while losing 0.6%.

Crude appears to be in a downtrend but gained 0.6%.

Gold is still in a downtrend and lost 0.7%.

The USD is still in an uptrend and gained 0.3%.’

NEXT WEEK

Monday: pending home sales at 10am. Tuesday: personal income/spending, Case-Shiller, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. Wednesday: ADP, ISM, FOMC, construction spending and auto sale. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and factory orders. Friday: Payrolls, the trade deficit and ISM services.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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300 Responses to Weekend update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Has Gary been banned? We had a bet.

  2. alexh110 says:

    Dow has an hourly +D now at a flat-wave low.
    SPX still has a potential IHS with a slightly lopsided right shoulder.

  3. emuntrader says:

    Charts edge does have an important turn date today. prices shown on graph do not reflect price action.

  4. 2808 break or rally now

  5. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX update: tactical long opened at 2808 with a 2795 SL. This after a week of being flat after hedging my previous 2788 long with shorts at 2835 and 2840.
    My reasoning for going long along lays on two Harmonic Fibonacci patterns forming, of which one would be complete at 2835 by tomorrow or Friday, and the other one finishing next week at 2860ish.
    I may post said patterns as each one if done forming.
    Again, this is just a tactical long position, just like the previous one was. The main aim here is to use them as hedges to go short in a safer way for the coming multi-month leg down. I have not turned bullish yet, lol.

  6. alexh110 says:

    IHS reversal pattern is possible here on SPX (currently in its right shoulder).
    Though it could also roll over into a deeper low.

    Hourly MACD has been bottoming near the end of the month recently.
    Hasn’t bottomed at the beginning of the month since March.

  7. Page says:

    Expecting strong Gold rally either today or tomorrow.

  8. alexh110 says:

    The market could be in the midst of a minute iv flat, to alternate with the minute ii zigzag?
    Hard to tell at the moment.

  9. mcgcapital says:

    Would be careful with longs here across the board now. FTSE reversal looks underway as fully retraced yesterday’s short covering rally and some more. After this week can’t see any catalysts for more upside.. possible treasury yields break out and we see selling on NFP rather than the usual ramp, so would be cautious

    • alexh110 says:

      Trade War resolution could be a catalyst, or maybe even something to do with the Mueller probe.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Trade is the curve ball, anything can happen there, but I think US and Chinese interests are diametrically opposed so it’s probably not going away overnight. Plus the EU won’t give it up easily as their whole purpose is to create a protectionist market for their goods and services.. it’s a really complicated issue.

        The Mueller thing I don’t see as relevant really.. it’s not like it’s weighing on the market and we don’t react when news about it comes out. If something bad happens then maybe we pullback on it with some risk aversion but if they just announce no collusion or whatever, can’t see that making it rally.

        Just looking at the momentum.. Think it’s falling away now and path of least resistance is down. SPX needs to hold 2800 but don’t think it does

  10. gary61b says:

    ES, if 2822 does not hold support then I see 2820, 2819.2818 , 2816 then 2814.

  11. phil1247 says:

    BONDS tanking

    maybe the bond boys were given a heads up
    on the coming news flash …

    FED raises rates today in surprise move !

    • Ashley says:

      FED QT today??? Id say 2809-2811 might be a good place to try a long to 2830….

    • FFR was trading at a 94% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting. Powell didn’t warn the market of a August hike…doubt they would tank the market with a hike today. To me it seems as though the equity markets rise and then Trump/Minuchin makes a public statement of increasing tariffs against China. Yesterday was a perfect example.

      Phil, you are correct…”SSO” is impossible to trade today. Wouldn’t r/o a change in the tapering program or a reaffirmation of a rate hike in September, December and 2-3 rate hikes in 2019….that could spoke the equity markets but could be bullish for the bond market as these rate increase will act as a drag on the economy (headwind) once they are fully “absorbed by the market.

      • Ashley says:

        Could short here but Id rather wait for a run at the 2835 pivot, but I think the best course of action is to go back to bed…. MUST not try to trade on FOMC day, it almost never works out for me LOL G/L

        • fionamargaret says:

          Think a decline of about 65 points is more likely than higher…

          • Ashley says:

            If my count is correct thats exactly what should happen swiftly, like right about now, I’ll pass though because FOMC and thats just 1 of 3, should be able to short 2 for 3 of 3 =)

    • chrisk44342 says:

      waiting/watching for CL to develop https://invst.ly/85e7f

  12. gary61b says:

    ES, looks to have 2829.75 in its sights before a pb… some overhead at 2823,2825. long in play from 2798.25,T=2869.25..

  13. phil1247 says:

    es

    short traded at 2822

    but 2809 long from lows must fail
    in order to reach the 2786 target

    zb .
    .. nice profits available to be taken again now
    whether or not ext short target is hit

  14. learnedmylesson25 says:


    Just a chart tonight of gold support levels.It’s bearish until it isn’t.GL all.

  15. Ashley says:

    NDX wave V ending diagonal =)

  16. emuntrader says:

    jobas, I don’t know if you are trying to help me or teach me, but I don’t trade the FTSE so i wont presume to know the inner working of it. Personally I am here because Tony’s philosophy and legacy. His teachings and hard learned emotional control has made me a profitable trader. Just so everyone knows I don’t trade all the time. In fact, for the month of July I have only traded 5 trades, 2 winners, 1 loser(gap down SPY), 1 break even, and one TBA. currently long from about 2800, and unless we open up -20, I will be fine. Not too worried about it. The more scientific a trade – the less emotion. I post charts and thoughts just like everyone else, and i don’t want to scrutinize anyone who is putting they’re capital at risk. I wish the best for all. Personally I will probably close my position before the Fed announcement. but the odds are Price and volatility will rise going into to the release.

    • jobjas says:

      neither helping nor teaching – just explaining what I meant (just another index -principle remains same)
      Good to know you don’t want any “scrutiny” -will stay away.

  17. learnedmylesson25 says:

    A snippet of Al Brooks
    “The bears got follow-through selling yesterday. However, the bulls rallied off the 20 day EMA, the 2800 Big Round Number, and the March high. After 2 days of climactic selling down to support, the Emini will probably go sideways to up for a couple of days. The bears will likely then get a 2nd leg down. I have been saying that the bears would get a 50 – 100 point selloff over the next 2 weeks. They now have 50 points, and a 2nd leg down is likely after a bounce.

    Today is the last day of the month. Therefore, monthly support and resistance can be important. The targets are the June high of 2796.00 and the March high of 2811.00. If the Emini is within 5 points of either in the final hour or two, it will probably get drawn to the magnet for a test.”
    LML25:Nothing much happened on gold/GDX imho.Still bearishly embedded,but RSI seems to be rising.Past GDX patterns similar to this one have led to a large one day rally,then giveback.Still waiting for GDX to get above 21.50 (or 20 on slow stochastics).Good luck all.

  18. E says:

    Why did futures just drop through 1st support level?

  19. thoth8 says:

    Amazon’s Monthly and Weekly charts looks pretty much “Kaput”!

  20. Wondering. From the 2848 high, are we going to see a largere price decline, than we have seen thus far??

  21. jobjas says:

    FTSE to 7900 in wave 3

    • jobjas says:

      emuntrader ,in the last chart we have a leading diagonal i to v culminating in wave 1 which is followed by a wave in the opposite direction of the trend of the diagonal as wave 2

    • mcgcapital says:

      Last chart just looks like a choppy mess like it has been, day trading market. 7800 is key.. should claim it this week if it’s bullish, if it doesn’t despite central banks and payrolls I can’t see it doing it in August

      • jobjas says:

        1. pure EW analysis without any dose of news views and fundamentals.
        2. hindsight is always 20/20 -skill is in identifying waves in real time . After the present wave moves up one can always look back and say that there was a leading diagonal (marked here)
        3. wherever there is overlapping of waves think of either ED or LD
        4. always keep the bigger picture in mind – no wave is a stand alone wave , it is always part of a bigger wave and that is the reason fib application has to be applied to the correct previous wave.
        5.CHART 1 is a monthly chart starting from 2009 low .we have 5 black waves – looks like a gigantic leading diagonal (which will culminate in wave 1 [ light blue tentatively placed at 8250 ] of a cycle that will last decades , and the wave 2 of that cycle will correct the whole cycle from 2009 -2019 ? by around 38.2% and expected to bottom around red wave 2 of black fifth wave (around 5780)
        6. each black wave is in turn composed of 5 red waves
        7. so from chart one we are in red 5 of larger black 5 wave
        8.CHART 2 is the zoomed wave 5 red (of the black wave 5) -look for red 4 in square box .
        9. red 5 is again composed of 5 blue in brackets – fourth of which is complete (in round box)
        10. CHART 3 is the wave 5 blue in brackets zoomed -yet developing -which in turn will have 5 solid black waves.
        11.now that we have wave 4 in round box as confirmed we are looking for 5 black waves to complete the uptrend from 2009 .
        12. so in chart 3 with wave 4 in round box complete ; we see a bunch of choppy waves – think of LD as it is wave 1 of this cycle.
        13. a LD (with i -v waves ) once complete will have a drop for wave 2 as marked
        14. having established the wave 1 (LD)and wave 2 ;followed by a choppy uptrend we have to trust it is wave 3 and trade accordingly
        lengthy and tedious write up – but same principle can be applied for any instrument

        • mcgcapital says:

          I can’t say I fully believe in EW on the basis that the counts always change so I can’t really comment on the wave structures or labelling, but it’s the same as with any technical indicators.. as long as there’s an ’if the market does x, I do y’ response to everything then it’s got a chance of being a disciplined and profitable system.

          I tend to look for patterns and given I trade FTSE almost exclusively that’s the one I’m focused on most. As for getting to 8250, I’d say that was possible but difficult especially short term. One thing to note is that FTSE rarely breaks above prior resistance then adds a big amount of points before the next period of corrective activity. I remember in 2015 we broke 7000 and it was supposed to mark the start of a huge rally because it was the breakout of a 15 year trading range. The reality is since then we’ve sold off for a minimum of 200-300 points (and sometimes 1000+) from 7100, 7365, 7440, 7600, 7800 and 7900. So basically.. new highs often is bearish on this index in the sense that sizeable pullbacks have usually followed. That would suggest that we’d probably sell off from 8000 if it got there, and might take a few goes of rally then multi month correction to get to 8250.

          On the flip side.. over the same period we’ve had impulsive rallies off notable lower lows at 5500 (Feb ‘16) and 6840 (Mar ‘18) for the two major corrections, plus rallies off either the bottom of the trading ranges or just below from 6600 (Dec ‘16), 7100 (Feb ‘17), 7100 (Apr ‘17), 7200 (Sept ‘17) and 7300 (Dec ‘17). All of those rallies started off strong and carried on making higher highs for many (usually 5-6) weeks.. they look impulsive the whole way. After those rallies there was lengthy consolidation. It’s worth noting that not once have we broken up out of consolidation for a new rally leg without beginning the impulsive part of the rally from the range bottom. In the current market we hit 7500 6 weeks ago, and have since made higher lows with a lot of chop. The current rally is nothing like any of the others I’ve referenced, it looks corrective to me, which suggests retest of 7500 is on the cards. Above 7800 and I’m unsure of the pattern but below there it seems very likely it flops back down.

          As for mentioning the news/fundamentals, I’ve observed that recently we’re getting rallies around events (earnings/opex/payrolls/meetings/window dressing) and nothing the rest of the time. Last year the market generally was rising during quiet spells for news but not this year. It’s almost as if traders provide liquidity to push the market up around events but there’s not enough liquidity when short term traders aren’t providing it (i.e. when there are no events to trade around).That’s just my feeling. And after this week we’re light on events hence my suggestion if a break upwards is coming I’d expect it now rather than in the next few weeks.

          On the fundamentals, FTSE usually only re-rates when either 1. Global markets all rallying 2. Sterling falling (overseas revenues) 3. Oil rallying (big allocation to oil and mining) 4. Bond yields falling (big allocation to bond proxies like utilities/healthcare). 1 doesn’t look to be happening with any consistency and if anything the other 3 look like headwinds rather than tailwinds unless Brexit goes really wrong. So I’m struggling to see a bullish breakout on either a fundamental or a technical level. Best guess is move back to 7500 and see how things sit at that point, would be clueless on the medium term above 7800 but probably long for a trade.

          • jobjas says:

            Sorry , the write up was meant for any one trading / investing using EWP.
            And about fundamentals and others factors , frankly I have no clue.

  22. jobjas says:

    Technical bias is when one keeps raising stops or adjusting trend lines …and even adding a dash of political and fundamental bias

  23. phil1247 says:

    bears are trying their best to fumble the ball

    will they succeed?

  24. mcgcapital says:

    FTSE losing support already.. just another huge short covering rally with no bid under it. Should be holding 7750 for me if a break above 7800 was coming. Could get ugly now if it breaks back under 7700, thinking 7500 as the wedge we’ve had recently could fully retrace

      • mcgcapital says:

        Nice chart. What I’d say with FTSE is most of the time it’s choppy as there’s not often a reason to re-rate it as it’s mostly large mature companies with stable cash flows, so main source of returns is the dividend rather than capital growth. When it does trend impulsively, the last few years the impulsiveness has started from either lower lows or the bottom of the trading range, it doesn’t tend to chop around in the range then suddenly breakout and begin looking impulsive, it either starts like that or it’s corrective action. For that reason it’s always felt like the last couple of months will at least retest the bottom of the range which is 7500. When it refuses to go down like it has the last couple of weeks, it felt odds on there’d be a pop back to the top of the range. 7800 is really key. In June it did a similar move, felt bearish, couldn’t break lower, popped back and rejected 7800 then flopped down to 7500. Expecting the same outcome here.

        If we lose 7700 now it should have less trouble slicing through the 7600s than it has recently given a rejection of the top. Still a few news events to navigate this week with the Bank of England and payrolls, if it went down under 7700 despite that it would probably confirm that move is on. It can obviously go lower than 7500, 7300 and 7100 are major pivots under there, but will assess if it gets there as it could form an impulsive rally off 7500.

        • fotis2 says:

          Of late have observed Bearflags on 4 hour and Daily charts especially Forex and Metals modus operandi shake out Bears with spike up and then reverse to bear flag duty

      • CampFreddie says:

        fotis – Disagree strongly.

  25. hugh jazole says:

    This latest personal savings rate is wrong. No way it’s 6.8.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

  26. emuntrader says:

    $SPX 15 min. We do have a 5 wave LD off the lows. Expecting a higher high going before the FOMC meeting. After that anybody’s game. Looking at the CPC – the shorts are on the rise over the past couple of days. even if we sell off hard I’m expecting a squeeze to take hold that will propel us into higher highs. GL

    • jobjas says:

      Immediate wave at the end of any diagonal ( both LD & ED) is in the direction opposite to the trend of the diagonal

    • aahmichael says:

      I’ll give an alternate view. We have 5 down from 2848 to 2798, and an abc back up to the 50% retracement level. Also, I use some very simple rules to identify diagonals, no matter if they’re LDs or EDs. First, they have to be either contracting or expanding. If contracting, then i > iii > v, and ii > iv. The opposite relationships occur in an expanding DT. The rally from yesterday’s low to today’s high doesn’t meet either of those requirements, therefore, based on the way I count waves, that’s not a DT of any kind. It’s just a basic abc. Also, Elliott never saw a LD in his entire life. Now, however, if you scan the internet, people are labeling LDs all over the place. I almost never label anything a LD, as I can always find a much more standard way to label overlapping waves that might appear as an LD, and almost 100% of the time that I do label something as a LD, it turns out to be something else. What I see people doing is automatically labeling overlapping waves as a LD, because they want to force fit an impulsive trend into market action where it doesn’t exist.

      • +1 appreciate your insight, and agree, many of the counts off the April lows are forcing a LD count even though it violates the basic rules you outlined. Personally speaking, I prefer Trader Joes count (minor 4), so a sharp would be an appropriate alteration for the minor 2 expanded flat. If the current wave extends further in time it could result in a triangle edging price sideways for several weeks as the penultimate setup preceding the end of this bull market. At a minimum we’re counting 5 of (5) of Major 1 (OEW) and quite possibly 5-(5)-((5)) or 5-(5)-((5))-V (extreme traditional EW permabear count), so I’m in no rush to fall on my longsword here seeing that the med to long-term heavily favor those with a bearish bias.

  27. Hello….my view of the SDS price structure is suggesting – the SPX pattern
    is no longer Bullish….and favor’s long SDS….35.34 and 34.54 look to be key
    levels of support – not looking for them to be broken…

  28. learnedmylesson25 says:

    So a little market pullback and they drop a rumor that China and the US may restart trade talks.Lol.

  29. NEWBIE says:

    No bears left… Well you know what happens next.

  30. stcoleridge says:

    Tomorrow sees a $24 billion of Fed B/S QT drop off.
    Largest since the beginning of Feb I think.
    Looking to fade any month end window dressing in the last hour or so.

  31. gary61b says:

    ES possible short at the 2824/2830 level. ES has been in a long since 2798.25, T=2869.25

    • Ashley says:

      Got out with 2, woo hoo lol, I doubt we gap down tomorrow on FOMC day so I should be able to reshort again probably at about 2829 (61.8% retracement)…

    • Ashley says:

      Woo Hoo, got out with 2 LOL, I doubt we gap down much on FOMC day and I could see them going for 61.8% at about 2829…. Lets see how AAPL does with earnings…..

  32. emuntrader says:

    My current count of AMD 5 min chart. looking to buy back in on a 5-wave pattern down – to complete a irregular wave one.

  33. phil1247 says:

    chris
    did you take the gift short at 7265 nq?
    its a risk free trade now

  34. Ashley says:

    Reshorted at 2816 with a stop at 2821 =)

  35. mcgcapital says:

    Bullish breakout above 7710 on FTSE. But under 7800 still so probably flops and drops again. Nearly every time there’s a big move down on it there’s a huge squeeze beforehand. Think this is that squeeze

  36. torehund says:

    As timid AS timid ever gets, all indices struggeling to let the macd on weekly hock in earnest. Can do nothing but wait until lower order oscillators line up for market progress 😳💤💤

  37. emuntrader says:

    I have revised my count a bit. I am expecting another rally to complete the expanding triangle that may or may not take us to new highs. This market has been moving in 3’s for way too long, it would be nice to see a 5 wave again. I was hoping for a little bit more bad news on the trade war (whatever people are calling negations these days) to help propel us to new all time highs. But I guess all eyes on the Fed. I know Janet/Benarke would not disappoint, but we are stuck with Powell now. I don’t see how he could be more Hawkish than last month, but who knows.

    Tony, Great Pivot.
    Glad to see you participating more. Hope all is well.

    • Hi,Fiona,agree with Nasdaq TA and complementing it,possible 38,2-50% correction
      thanks
      https://invst.ly/84omh

      • fionamargaret says:

        You know I love your charts Jungle, and if you scroll back some to the last music, read Amateur-Investor which I posted there….x

    • fionamargaret says:

      It is really notoriously difficult to memorize Bach…most composers have a more song-like quality to them.
      If you read Henri Poincare, the French mathematician, engineer and physicist extraordinaire, who had bad eyesight, thus while at school had to visualize all his lectures before committing to paper, and thought intuitiveness led to visual representation, whereas logic limited ideas.
      This from the same man who brought us the qualitative theory of differential equations, and celestial mechanics.
      I mention this as Bach is compared to other composers, whereas his format is different.
      When you listen to Gould, think of pebbles skimming across the water, the movement of the water in bigger and bigger arcs.

      I have a particular fondness for Monsieur Poincare, as my father used to tell me of him when I visualized everything, and became distressed when I didn’t seem to fit the mould x

  38. learnedmylesson25 says:

    One more from Al Brooks (we’ll see if “sounding”like he knows what he’s talking about,translates to “actually” knowing what he’s talking about).
    Monday pre session analysis.
    “The Emini sold off from above the 2 week bull channel on the 60 minute chart to below the bottom of the channel on Friday. The selling was strong enough to make follow-through selling likely. Over the past week, I have said many times that the odds favor a 50 – 100 point correction within the next 2 weeks. It is probably underway.

    Less likely, this reversal down is a failed breakout above the March high and the start of a move down to the bottom of the 6 month trading range. But, the odds favor buyers coming back below 2800 and down to the beginning of the bull channel at around 2770.

    Because Friday was a sell climax, today will probably have at least a couple hours of sideways to up trading starting by the end of the 2nd hour. However, the odds favor a move below 2800 this week. The bears will sell 20 – 30 point rallies.
    The Emini is unchanged in the Globex session. Because Friday was a sell climax in a bull trend, day traders expect a lot of trading range trading today. Friday’s selloff was strong enough Surprise Bar to make a 2nd leg down likely within a couple of weeks. However, this week could retrace half or more of Friday’s selloff before the 2nd leg down begins.

    Whenever there is a big day like Friday, there is an increased chance of more big days. But, because of the sell climax on Friday after Wednesday’s buy climax, there is confusion. The odds are that the next few days will be smaller and confused. That means that there will be trading range trading before there is a breakout up or down. At the moment, the breakout will more likely be down after a week or two of sideways trading. Yet, the odds are that the bulls will buy the 2nd leg down and the bull trend will continue up to a new high.”

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