Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +172

For the past three days the Asian markets have gained 0.3%, and the European markets have been mixed. The US market traded down to SPX 2795 on Monday, rallied to SPX 2830 before reversing down to 2811 on Tuesday, then rallied to SPX 2848 on Wednesday. A strong week thus far.

We are still seeing three waves up from the SPX 2692 low in June: 2743-2699-2848. Quite a strong third wave now. Certainly looks like this market is impulsing. Short term support is now at the 2835 and 2798 pivots, with resistance at the 2858 and 2884 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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244 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Any views on Facebook?

    I went long yesterday after the drop. Purely speculative but seemed way over done.

    Like

    • Seems like a reasonable buy

      A lot of people who are pretty good investors really like this stock.
      Almost sounds like the kind of news that Jesse Livermore used to plant.
      Probably some margin clerk selling today and tomorrow.
      The tell will be where the stock is a week from today.

      Liked by 1 person

    • mcgcapital says:

      Probably will try and close the gap at some point won’t it. But to me it’s probably the most overvalued one out of all the tech mega stocks. Can’t see people wanting to use Facebook in 10 years time, it’s just dull and I’d have thought the amount of time people spend on there has dropped significantly already, which means lower ad revenue. User growth will be negative, not positive. And they can’t nick your data anymore so that’s one of the main money spinners gone. They have some popular and more durable subsidiaries like whatsapp and insta but there’s no revenue on there, no/few ads or usage fees. Plus has a huge valuation.. will be the first one in the bubble to crack

      Like

  2. torehund says:

    Tbt, look at weekly macd, its now on another upturn after two x like waves which were retraced, and histogram turning positive AND macd is in the positive already, sweet or ?

    Like

    • alexh110 says:

      SPX weekly, daily and hourly MACD all looking quite bullish here.
      The weekly seems to indicate a parabolic move higher in progress: so I’m fully long.
      Don’t expect to be shorting again until the bull market is over.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. learnedmylesson25 says:

    FANG–after earnings reports, we’re down to AG.Not much of an acronym anymore.Gold is being fought tooth and nail to stay down in the 1231 area,even though the yen and euro are up vs the dollar.A leap up by gold/GDX on Thursday would be what this market needs.GDX is still bearishly embedded,so an escape over 20 should get things moving.G’night all.

    Like

    • fionamargaret says:

      Another beautiful performance from Yuja Wang, touchingly conducted by Kurt Masur.
      If you listen carefully, someone screams about two minutes in.
      Now we all have the music memorized , but it is almost like autopilot with emotion…you are caught up in what the music is saying to you at that particular time…no two performances are the same…sometimes everything just comes together in a magical way, but you cannot replicate exactly.. Stardust is difficult to handle
      I found at the scream I held my breath..yes,Yuja was thrown slightly, but not enough to send her off her musical path…loved her for that, but I was a wreck.x

      I was reading through different ideas on the McVerry Report, and found myself laughing at a summation by an Elliott Wave participant….it was the first paragraph of Tony’s Update of tonight…..
      “The US market traded down to SPX 2795 on Monday, rallied to SPX 2830 before reversing down to 2811 on Tuesday, then rallied to SPX 2848 on Wednesday. A strong week thus far”. The strength of that last sentence after what seemed to be a rollercoaster, I found both poignant and funny.
      Now if he ever decides to become a humorist…..x

      Oh, and I think it a tremendously good idea for Tony to consider doing waves for Cryptos. It would attract a whole different market….”Tales from the Crypt” updated…x

      Like

  4. phil1247 says:

    ES in extension longs now

    “straight up or not at all”

    bull above ………… 2816.5
    target ………………… 2862.25

    Like

  5. vivelaamo says:

    Hoping for a pb in the next 2 days to add at resistance for DOW longs for the last time with low margin. From next week goes from 0.5% to 5% for new positions.

    SPX at the very least should test all time highs in the next few weeks.

    Like

    • stcoleridge says:

      You could fill your boots in the NDX right now. Many
      posters saying it’s going to 8000, despite being down 120 after hours.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. E says:

    You gotta be kidding me. FB 20% drop after hours? Can’t possibly hold into the cash market.

    Like

  7. stockop says:

    possible ED fifth wave in NQ? the reaction after hours is looking like it. market might have been rising today, but a lot of the crap was still sinking or not joining the rally. just hope it doesnt V recover by the morning. Dow/YM breakout (false?). big day tomorrow imo

    Like

  8. jobjas says:

    shorted … shorted …re-shorted covered … re-re- shorted …..waiting to short tomorrow …
    why don’t we all just follow Tony ?

    Like

    • waterstim says:

      I do exactly that. Despite what some people think, it is exactly why I come here. $$$$$$$

      Like

    • mcgcapital says:

      Because not everyone sees this pattern as leading to 3000+. You can’t make money trading following someone else, you need to have your own process

      Like

      • waterstim says:

        You can’t make money following someone else? I use a conglomeration of several people I trust. Tony is one of them. But to say you can’t make money following someone else….what if that someone else is you? Would you still agree?

        Like

        • mcgcapital says:

          Yes. I can follow me because I know exactly what I’m looking for to enter and exit my trades, and there’s an element of discretion on how I take profits (I’m pretty rigid on the risk and stop losses).

          Other people could only follow me if I was to post every single thing I do on my account in real time and simultaneously as I do it. That’s not practical since there’s usually a slight lag between me trading and posting, which does make a difference, plus I’m not always online posting every time.

          Nobody on here including Tony posts everything they do, so you can’t blindly follow them. Even if someone was reliably posting that would you want to be reliant on refreshing the page and hoping they’ve posted to tell you what to do? It’s not a good place to be in

          Like

          • waterstim says:

            Making money following someone else is much different than carbon copying everything they do. Tony puts thought and ideas out there and I use them, and other’s, and I make money. I’m intermediate term investor, so I don’t day trade. I’ve been doing this for 30 years, so I am not a novice, and I’m still learning, and I always will be.

            Like

    • aahmichael says:

      For several years, Tony has included the phrase “trade what’s in front of you,” or something to that effect, in his updates. He has never said “trade what’s in front of me.”

      Like

      • jobjas says:

        agree to both the above comments
        personally I would re evaluate my methodology of wave tracking if I had to keep raising my stop loss .
        No offence intended .

        Like

    • fionamargaret says:

      “It takes nearly as much ability to know how to profit by good advice as to know how to act for oneself”….a truism..

      Like

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