Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: lower open then rally, DOW +172

For the past three days the Asian markets have gained 0.3%, and the European markets have been mixed. The US market traded down to SPX 2795 on Monday, rallied to SPX 2830 before reversing down to 2811 on Tuesday, then rallied to SPX 2848 on Wednesday. A strong week thus far.

We are still seeing three waves up from the SPX 2692 low in June: 2743-2699-2848. Quite a strong third wave now. Certainly looks like this market is impulsing. Short term support is now at the 2835 and 2798 pivots, with resistance at the 2858 and 2884 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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244 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Doesn’t matter if I’ve been wrong for a year and a half and I’ve lost all my money. I was right in Feb 2016 when everybody else was wrong.

    It’s all that matters.

    Like

    • jobjas says:

      this is not a competition – all that matters is if one learned from ones mistakes (in real time and even with real money) & improved ones technique of tracking waves (or any TA ) to have a better success rate and a larger trading account .
      As for EW users the principle is universal , a successful method to track the waves (in any time frame & for any instrument) is what each one has to develop and improve upon .
      It is better to be wrong and learn than to be merely lucky and continue to remain dumb.

      Like

  2. torehund says:

    What a bleak day, one to forget.
    Wishing Tony and crew a happy weekend🔝

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  3. Hi,thanks Tony
    Dollar index appears to be in an AT
    https://invst.ly/83u4i
    DOW and W5000 have divergence on the daily chart
    https://invst.ly/83u5c
    https://invst.ly/83u76

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  4. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX update:
    Most in here must think I’m glad about today’s pullback. Well I’m just glad that I hedged my tactical long on Wednesday, but I’m cautious about that day’s high being the end of this up move from 2692 (2690.25 in my charting software).

    SPX already filled the yellow rectangle area outlined 2 weeks ago, and then went on and overshot above it. Here’s the thing with overshoots of areas of resistance… it means SPX might go on and test the next area/s of Fib resistance (orange and red rectangles) after a brief breather back into the yellow rectangle. That, and the fact that SPX touching the 2856-2867ish Fib lines would make for a better double top, have me sitting on my hands for now.
    On the other hand, a touch of 2802 would have me thinking 2846 was the final high, and a break of 2790 would confirm it.
    EW wise, we can say that there’s already 5 waves up from the 2692 low, with wave 4 low at 2790. I’m actually counting 7 waves up in my weird own EW system, which is enough to end a progression series, but sometimes, especially when wave 1 is as small in time and length as this one, wave 5 subdivides into 3 subwaves just like wave 3 does, to make a progression series of 9 subwaves. So I’m not ruling out this pullback from 2846 being only wave b:5, in which case there’s one last, minimal new high to come next week. A break of 2790 first though, would signal wave 5 didn’t subdivide and down we go already.

    So, based on this analysis, I’ll wait a bit longer for confirmation of either scenario. Planning on going short in any case, either on the test of the orange-red rectangles in the 2856-2867, or on a break of 2790 and lower high afterwards.

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  5. jobjas says:

    stubbornness is difficult to cure . Your eyes see what your mind (brain) wants to see !
    Hope the “traditional” bears won’t come up with another bear pattern OR raise their stops yet again – when the market continues the uptrend tomorrow .

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  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Msny -divs on the dollar,and today a fresh +div on GDX.But its embedded,so to kick the +div in we have the question:Chicken or the egg.Does the embedded stochastic get taken out,enabling the +div to work or does the +div work,taking out the embedded?Or does it just keep selling?All it needs is a fuse to be lit to move up quickly,but the sellers are not allowing it.21.50 needs to get cleared somehow.I’m adding today.Something has to happen with the dollar that allows gold/GDX to rally a bit.Good luck all.

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