Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2760. After a gap up opening on Monday, and higher open Tuesday, the SPX rallied to 2796. A gap down opening on Wednesday took the SPX to 2771. But the market gapped up on Thursday, hit SPX 2799, then moved over 2800 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.9%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 2.05%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: import prices and consumer sentiment. On the uptick: consumer credit, the CPI/PPI, wholesale inventories, plus the budget deficit and jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FED’s semi-annual report to congress, industrial production and housing. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: uptrend

The range bound activity in the SPX/DOW, since February’s decline, has kept most of us guessing what EW pattern was forming during all that choppiness. At times, after the April low, the market looked like it was ready to make new highs. Which the NDX/NAZ/R2K did. And at other times it looked like it was going to retest the February/April lows again. Which clearly has not happened. What has happened, as often does, the market eliminates one potential count after another until it settles into its final pattern. The latter occurred this week.

Longer term the 2016 Major wave 1 bull market continues. Four of the five Intermediate waves that create a Major wave bull market have already completed. Intermediate waves i and ii ending in the spring of 2016, and Intermediate waves iii and iv ending in the early-spring of 2018. Int. wave i was simple, and Int. iii subdivided into five Minor waves. Int. wave ii was an irregular zigzag, and Int. iv was a flat. A nice and clear pattern until the choppiness in recent months. Nonetheless, we’re still looking for SPX 3000+ by 2018+.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

After the April downtrend low at SPX 2554 the NDX/NAZ/R2K impulsed higher, but the SPX/DOW was nothing but choppy three wave movements higher. It looked more corrective than impulsive. After the uptrend seemed to have failed at SPX 2791 in early June, while the NDX/NAZ/R2K were already making new all-time highs, we settled on either an Int. wave iv triangular pattern or a complex flat pattern. Both patterns suggested retest of the February/April low, or near retest.

On the first trading day of July the market gapped down at the open, hit SPX 2699, and appeared ready to confirm a downtrend within days across all four major indices. A downtrend confirmation would have confirmed the triangular, or complex flat, Int. iv correction. But the market was not doing that kind of pattern and started to rally. When the downtrend did not occur we posted a potential impulsive pattern on the SPX hourly chart. Then by Wednesday of this week we noticed the NYSE had a clear leading diagonal triangular pattern from its April low.

This pattern would explain the choppiness in the SPX/DOW since the April low. Diagonal triangles are created by choppy three waves patterns forming five larger waves that create an even larger wedge formation. Supporting the LD pattern was the strength being displayed in market breadth since April.


To increase the probability of this LD scenario a few things had/have to occur. Continuation of the April SPX uptrend with a rally above 2791. This occurred on Tuesday. The rally needed to exceed SPX 2802 to eliminate the IV triangular scenario. This occurred on Friday. The rally from the recent SPX 2692 low to start looking impulsive. So far we have three waves up: 2743-2699-2805. And the market should started acting like a third wave, since Minor waves 1 and 2 should have already completed.

Should we get all the parameters noted above the SPX could hit 3000 before this uptrend ends. With Minor wave 1 equaling 237 points (2554-2791), and Minor 2 at 2692. If Minor waves 3 thru 5 are only 1.5 times Minor 1 we hit SPX 3048. Let’s see how the remaining parameters play out. Short term support is at the 2798 and 2780 pivots, with resistance at the 2835 and 2858 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly higher for a gain of 1.9%.

European markets were also mostly higher for a gain of 0.7%.

The DJ World index gained 1.0%, and the NYSE gained 0.8%.


Bonds continue to uptrend but were flat on the week.

Crude is also in an uptrend but lost 3.8%.

Gold is in a downtrend and lost 1.2% on the week.

The USD is still in an uptrend and gained 0.9%.


Monday: retail sales, the NY FED at 8:30, then business inventories at 10am. Tuesday: industrial production, the NAHB, and FED Powell congressional testimony. Wednesday: housing starts, building permits and the Beige book. Thursday: weekly jobless claims, the Philly FED, and leading indicators. Friday: options expiration.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

459 Responses to Weekend update

  1. mcgcapital says:

    Just give it a break please as none of this is relevant to trading. Even if you were right and Trump was guilty of something and he was deposed then it’s really no big deal, the world won’t end and the markets won’t crash just because of it. So I just can’t understand why you think we need to hear this everyday.

    We might have a bear market soon anyway but it’s got little to do with whether Trump’s president or not

  2. fionamargaret says:

    TMF to 23/24 (TLT)…..long the long bond….

  3. phil1247 says:

    CL 68.29 target hit to the penny and pop

    kvilia ………. ya gotta love this stuff … eh???

    see ya tomorrow

  4. learnedmylesson25 says:

    FBO still on the table for SPX.DXY and GDX down together.Ira says gold low may be at 1221area.

  5. phil1247 says:

    BLUE horseshoe warned to get out of TLT friday

    looking for short entry now

  6. schizo1688 says:

    Always nice to see different ideas ( bullish and bearish )on this board ..

  7. emuntrader says:

    We are on day 8. Which sometimes sells of early. a close below 2793.84 would negate the count.

  8. emuntrader says:

    This is my ALT count still bullish in both scenarios. Looking for the 34 hourly EMA to be flirted with before another major leg up. IF we go above 2811 before that happens. I will be looking for an extension to the upside. Best of Luck.

  9. jobjas says:

    CL completes wave 3 down at 68.20

  10. fxaprendiz says:

    Long term bullish… Medium term bearish… but short term bullish.
    I just closed my 2/5 shorts from 2804, leaving my tactical fading long from 2772 to run full size again. It seems like SPX will go and touch 2835 before any other significant move this week.
    Good luck bulls and bears, this week won’t be easy to trade.

    • alexh110 says:

      Agree it’s a difficult call, although the hourly momentum seems to be starting to respond to all the -D’s that have built up.
      Plus we have an almost symmetrical pattern of 11 days up, 11 days down, 10 days up.

  11. gary61b says:

    ES a break and hold below 2800 today, then possible 2809 was Micro 3 of minute i of minor 3. now in a micro 4 to or near 2766. maybe by wed. the high of minute 1 of minor 3 is complete at 2844?

  12. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble

    Thanks Amateur-Investor

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx

  13. Call wave 1 52 points a 2.618 wave 3 gets you to 2835 before a 50 point pull back. I see a lot of resistance at 2830 trend line.
    Good luck all.

  14. fxaprendiz says:

    Bill Manscoe, I thought it was you who asked me if I had a chart when I mentioned months ago that I had a count including waves of degrees way above Grand Super Cycle degree. Well this is the best that I can do chart wise. This is the longest chart I could find online that I could label. The rest will have to remain in my spreadsheet for now…

    While I may seem too bearish for some in here, I’m only bearish for a few more months, that’s my medium term view. In the long term, and especially the very long term, I am bullish. This Primary bull wave started in 2009 still has some years to go (until about 4Q 2022-1Q 2023), and the bigger, Cycle wave 5 of which it’s a part, will last for many more years as we are not even halfway of it.

    Ok now I think I’ll take a break from posting charts. It’s very hard and time consuming for me to create them and post them as my internet connection is very slow and shaky. And I’m a bit tired as well of defending both my medium term bearish view and my long term bullish view. People in here tend to think on extremist ways so I don’t make happy either band lol.

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      I don’t disagree with you. Nobody wants to discuss anything but day trading politics and somebody else but Tony’s market calls on this site. If you don’t mind I’ll review your charts and post tomorrow.

  15. gary61b says:

    I thought I sent this link once but it never went through,
    sorry Tony if it shows twice http://thepatternsite.com/EWleadingTriangle.html

  16. ragnar5 says:

    Putin and Trump meet in isolation in Helsinki

    Putin opens by saying:

    “Donald, I appreciate the work you have done for me since we engineered your position as president by eliminating voter registration records in the key America counties that provided the 80,000 vote margin that created your Electoral College victory. It has been a most encouraging result of all the work accomplished by our SVR and GRU Komprormat and Dezinformatsiya operations to destabilize the West. You have cooperated well, even though you must be irritated by our services’ exceptional ability to attain videos of your sexual escapades and complete records of your pathetic financial failings. I don’t need to say more about how we have you completely under our control. As long as you continue to follow our direction, you will have our support.”

    “I really, really get it. What do you want me to do now?”

    “Keep up the good work by alienating the US from all your allies, including the Europeans who you trashed at the NATO and the economic conferences, the Japanese, South Koreans, etc! Keep up the tariff battles with China, EU, Mexico and Canada which will lead to US job loss and inflation. Continue your efforts to cripple the K-1 education system and derive middle class students from achieving higher education so that the electorate is incapable of making informed decisions. Eliminate the F-1 visa program that allows foreign graduate students to accomplish new scientific breakthroughs at your best colleges. Defund the NSA and other cyber invasion agencies which will allow us better access to your voting system and corporate innovation.”

    “What should I do if I am served a subpoena by Special Counsel Mueller?”

    “Nothing to worry about. Lie, as you always do so beautifully. Causing an American Constitutional crisis would be a positive step in your support for our efforts to destabilize the US government. Remember, our Spetznaz teams can always always extract you from Mar a Logo to the Rodina, and we have a Dacha waiting for you here in case you are impeached or convicted.”

  17. Perhaps I am the only one that thinks actions by this president is going to derail the world economies? Not only do we have Trump doubling down on the EU tariffs with the statement just today that the EU is our Foe, we have coming to a head the Mueller Investigation and even the die-hard trump loyalists can connect the dots that point directly to his involvement.

    Why I continue to bring this up? Easy. The dozens of different scenarios going forward all lead to ONE conclusion, a constitutional crisis the likes of which we have never seen. Forget all out trade wars with the world. We have a Rosenstein situation, Mueller Indictments and finalizing report, that alone will send the stock market straight down. Wait till Trade Wars in full strength, disbanding NATO, G7, all trade negotiations break down, Firing of Rosenstein, Presidential pardons, and a big question if Mueller ever is allowed to release his report. Scoff at all this but I dare anyone to go back to my argument at the start of his presidency and tell me I was off base. IMPOSSIBLE! In fact his behavior is even more outrageous than I ever imagined. We also have the ability of one man to start a nuclear war without anyone’s approval.

    I have gone thru the multiple scenarios of immediate future (next 2 months) and have concluded it is impossible we don’t have a major crisis on our hands. Do you really think the market will pretend everything is normal? This will be going on as trump does everything to speed up the destructive nature of his. Guarantee all out trade war will be already here before the crisis occurs.

    If both the GOP and Trump knew beforehand that Mueller was releasing this latest report when they decided to have a one on one with Putin and GOP went ahead with circus to still discredit Mueller can you NOT take that leap forward. An easy one for sure.

    All this leads me to conclude with certainty we have a crash scenario this year. happy trading. Ignore common sense if you must. Keep the blinders on. If I was you I would keep one eye on the News and the other of the charts. If markets always anticipates the future they are doing a bad job of it right now. it’s called denial. Don’t Care, Don’t look, Don’t think about it.

    MY 100 PERCENT Guarantee, or your money back!

    • tony caldaro says:

      you forgot Stormy Daniels

      • Bill Manscoe says:

        Now I know you’re feeling better. I like my humor like I like my white wine. DRY

      • Treason seems funny to you. The GOP isn’t endorsing trumps behavior or am I missing something. To dismiss such a blatant attempt to destroy our democracy is more than alarming. One on One with Putin immediately after the world has a pretty good idea trump was directly involved in collusion hasn’t affected your mood any? Amazing! We take for granted our freedoms, dismiss the most horrific action any one person can take against those freedoms, and laugh at the conclusions. You do remember when trump gave away top-secret information and the only ones privy to the discussion was the Russians in the White House. but hey that’s just normal. Nothing this president can do will alarm. Destroy NATO, EU, G7, give away secrets to Russia. Please give me the retort on Obama. I love the comparison. His own party fights his actions with condemnation and legislation PREVENTING him from carrying his agenda out yet you think its POLITIICAL. So tell me is the GOP the treasonous party or not? Seems they can run on that platform.

        • NYC school system Commie:
          There are plenty of traitors in the Republican party. They are the seditious Rino’s who are always stabbing President Trump in the back at the behest of their corporate and elitist masters.

    • aahmichael says:

      Gary, you should know by now that investors only care about making money. If a nuclear war helped the stock market up, they would be all for it.

      As an example of this, I was at a conference a couple of years ago that was put on by GS. During the conference there was a session about the massive opioid crisis in this country. The speaker went into great detail about the horrible impact it has had and all of the lives that have been lost. After his 45 minute impassioned speech, he opened the floor for questions. The very first guy with a question stood up and said the following:

      “Thank you for all the great information you have given us about this huge issue that has reached epidemic proportions. Can you please tell us who the leading manufacturer of the syringes is?”

      • The irony is that any country that can be corrupted and laws disregarded means the market for that country is dead. name me one dictatorial country that is as corrupt as trump’s having a stock market that investors appreciate. Foolish even if just focused on earnings. Two TRILLION gone! It was a bonus reward for this election. the real progress starts when the GOP dismantles every social program that helped keep us afloat. Two tier nation like India perhaps?

        Astonishing developments today. Not one single trump supporter can call his collusion and treasonous behavior fake news. they roll with the revelations as if it isn’t THE most criminal of all acts, to betray your country. Having yet another secret meeting right after it was proven beyond any doubt that Russian officials and AMERICANS helped in turning the election. If we have 40 percent that still believe its inconsequential than we as a nation are doomed to fall very hard for a longtime to come.

        having this type of analysis PROVES to me the EW assumption can not be trusted. To be this wrong on trump means clouded judgement. irrational judgement. Can anyone here tell me the 2016 slight mistake and where the minor mistake was? I love when silence contradicts all arguments.

    • tommyboys says:

      Problem Holly is that YOU have gone thru the scenarios. “Scenarios” need an unbiased, calm, sane review. Not the case here unfortunately. Onward & upward 😓…

    • Long time reader, and first time posting. I’m sorry Gary, but I have to reply to your post, because you remind of myself a few years ago. Sorry for the very first and long winded post.Full disclosure, I read this blog daily, and the many comments from most of the contributors. A lot of people on this board make some really good calls, and I appreciate everyone’s opinions. I have this friend I used to work, who’s retired now. We used to trade together for many years prior to the market crash in 08, after we both literally got wiped out.

      Fortunately, my good friend, had accumulated a few million dollars in gold ,and cashed some out after that crash to raise cash, and put back to work in equities. I single handily witnessed him turn $100,000 into well over 20 million dollars today.

      I learned a lot of expensive lessons along the way watching James trade, and also gambling playing *baccarat” in Las Vegas

      Every day he would call me and ask, how do you feel about the market today? My answer (going down James). He would say, that’s what I think, so I’m going long. I would pound the table with every reason I felt it would drop, and referenced all the research (articles read), all the headlines on CNBC or CNN, and the market kept melting up, and up. The Fed is manipulating the market, this melt up is artificial, earnings are not as they appear because corporations are buying back stock, the market is way overbought. Goldman is goosing the market. The PPT is working hard at night, and it’s all a big house of cards. The new moon, the old moon, the solar eclipse, Obama sucks, our government sucks, this sucks, that sucks, and blah, blah blah.

      I referenced every technical pattern as I’m an Elliott Wave junkie and love studying technicals. Every pattern I referenced, and every theory I came up was busted. Every single narrative I tried to wrap my head around and pounded the table on didn’t matter and didn’t pan out. Sure, there was knee jerk reactions or some headline that would make the market fall and shake out weak longs, but that’s mostly all it was.

      I would put my own money in trying to hit the home run, and would just lose it as I refused to take the profit because it’s a double top and were revisting lows, or it’s just a slight head fake over the prior high. For years, I would lose on average $40,000 to $50,000 per year.

      James however kept winning and winning & winning. I kept urging him to sell and go short and he would say I’m crazy. “If ‘I” think it’s falling, and you think it’s falling, and everyone else thinks it’s falling, then it probably rises”. “The markets, like luck has no memory” It doesn’t know or care if you put your money in yesterday or 5 minutes ago, and you think it’s falling, and doesn’t care if it went up the last 1 day, 2 days, 5 days, 10 days.

      “Luck has no memory” Another lesson I learned playing baccarat with James in Vegas. A little about James. He’s a lucky son of b^%$, and not overly smart, but he’s got balls of steel. I would remind him this all the time. I would constantly tell him, he’s a dumb lucky son of a bit^*. Which he would always respond with, I would rather be dumb and lucky, then smart and ignorant every day of the week. and twice on Sunday. It’s this kind of attitude that helped him finish #8 in the World Series of Black Jack in the 80’s. He’s not afraid to push his money into the middle of the table, and not afraid to keep stacking chips when he’s winning.

      If you know anything about Baccarat, you know the odds are about 50/50 with a slight edge to the Banker Vs Player. James would bet the bank every time, and always increase his bet (progressive play) on every successful win. After about the 3rd or 4th win, I would tell him to back it down to which he would then increase 50% and play the same bank hand. I would watch him keep stacking it up to $4000 to sometimes $10,000 on a single hand and wouldn’t care if he lost, because he gave himself a chance to win.

      He would say luck has no memory. Baccarat is a simple game just flipping a coin. If you flip a coin 1000 times, chances are in the end you’ll have about 500 tails, and 500 heads. However, you may flip 20 tails in a row before you finally flip a head. Luck has no memory. If by chance you flipped a coin and got 10 heads in a row, the coin doesn’t say wait a minute, the last 10 flips were all heads, so surely this must be tails this time. Luck has no memory, It’s just the odds.

      He further explained, the stock market has an even better success rate then coin flipping. Stock indexes typically go “UP” 80% of the time. You can back test this 100+ years and see more often than not, the markets go up.

      For years, I invested my money going short thinking I will catch the big elevator down and make a fortune only to be dissapointed.

      Finally, last year I decided I would stop “reading” into all the nonsensical bull shit in the media i.e Trump this, tariff that, China this, Mueller That, Russia here, investigation there and would just buy when the market dropped to a level I felt afforded me a good risk/reward.

      I started with exactly $60,000 in my trading account in June of 2017 and at the moment have just shy of $750,000 in my account. Not bad for 12 months work.

      Gary, you can wrap a bow or ribbon around any narrative or 100 narratives you want as to why the market will crash this year, and offer up a 100% money back guarantee.

      I don’t make price predictions, but what I will tell you is odds are pretty good the market will see new all time highs again this year, next year, and probably the year after that.

      I’ll even offer you my one and only narrative that gooses all yours combined. There’s no where else to put your money. Yes, there’s plenty of instruments to invest your money into, but are you going to put your money into Bonds when we’re coming off 30 + year historic lows and have most likely bottomed? Say for example, you’re a professional money manager and your managing clients money for a living, and are under-performing the market this year. Your options are limited to: Invest in equities, invest in bonds or sit on the sidelines in cash. If you put your money in bonds in a rate rising environment with the fed raising rates, and sh*(& the bed at the end of the year, you’re out of a job. If you sit in cash, and the market recovers to all time highs, then your a pus^%y and are afraid to stack your chips and push them into the middle of the table, so again you’re out of a job. There’s NO PLACE to hide my friend. You either roll the dice and buy the dips, or pound the table like yourself as to why the market is going to crash. Yes, we’re entering the typical tough summer months, but the closer we get to the 4th quarter, rest assured, money will pour into the US stock market, and the money will be coming in from all over the world including China who’s market is being destroyed at the moment by the way at the hand of guess who and why? Yours truly Donald Trump and his tariffs. The Mueller investigation is white noise rhetoric and yesterdays news. Let it go already or you’ll go broke trying to fight it.

      I wish you nothing but the best of luck.

      • schizo1688 says:

        thanks for sharing

      • floyd drummer says:

        very nice, ….thanks for sharing.

      • aahmichael says:

        Thanks for the post. Everything makes sense, except for the fact that the reality of the last line of the 1st paragraph pretty much cancels out the entire rest of your post. From August 1982 through March 2000, the market taught everyone that the only thing you should ever do is go long. It didn’t matter when you went long, or the size of your position, just buy, buy, buy, and hold, hold, hold, and then buy more and more and more. Lots of people took early retirement in late 1999 because their financial advisors showed them the irrefutable proof that the market always goes up and there was no need for them to work for a paycheck anymore. Then…the market taught a different lesson.

        • Thanks for the feedback aahmichael. I didn’t start trading in the market until 2004, so I wasn’t involved in the time period you mention. I’m sure that time period taught many lessons (both bulls and bears). I’m quite sure then, just like today, there were many pessimists pounding the short table all the way up to the year 2000 which got wiped out. I’m sure there was some that retired, and some that just didn’t participate until the last minute, and painfully rode that bull down to the bottom and capitulated.

          Interesting that you brought up the 1982 to 2000 period because I have been studying the charts of the mid 90’s, and find some interesting technical parallels. After some sideways trading from November 92 to November of 94, the monthly RSI bottomed around 43 and took off like a raped ape peaking in July of 96 at around 98. Then in about 30-45 days, the market corrected about 10-12% with the monthly RSI 5 dropping to 54, but the bull continued for 4 more years while the monthly RSI made a series of lower highs until topping out in 2000 (eclipsing 90 only once at exactly 90 July of 97). Similarly, in November of 2016, after a 2 year period of sideways trading & a monthly RSI of 54, a new bull took off and peaked with an RSI of 99 in January of this year. Then after a quick reset or 10-12% correction, the monthly RSI 5 dropped to 54 and has been rising since. Hmm. History doesn’t always repeat, but has a funny way of rhyming. Now, I’m not saying that history will repeat exactly as it did then, but I promise you there will be no crash until you get a negative divergence of a higher high in price, and a lower high in RSI. And the lower high in RSI may drag on for years before you get the Big Kahuna, and it will come. SPX may be trading at 4000 by the time that 30%, 40% , 50% correction comes. I know you’re not calling for that, but some folks (Gary for example) are openly pounding the table for this crash scenario to occur which in my opinion is trading account suicide. Can we see a double bottom or even a head-fake below 2532 to suck in some shorts, sure, but in my opinion, it’s a low probability trade.

          Money can be made on both sides, and believe it or not, I’ll credit “you” with some of my wins/success. I agree with you that there’s been this magical recurring theme to the market rising in the beginning of the month, and flat lining mid month. It appears that you have been shorting the tops, and and adding to your positions on the way down whereas, I have been buying the bottoms and adding on the way up. Correct me if I’m wrong with that statement, but I thought I read one of your recent posts that you shorted the mid June top down, and added on a bounce to 2742 and covered around 2700? Which brings me back to my prior post and James (friend) lesson. Obviously you made a good trade, and perhaps it’s all skill & some luck combined, but you had the courage to add to your position and press to make a good trade a ” Great Trade’. I’m not sure how many points I have caught on the way up as I haven’t counted, but I’m sure it’s not as much as your success. Kudos to you, and many more blessings. It takes balls to turn a good trade into a “great trade” Most investors cash in on that rare small (short win) to soon with a small profit realized. People get burned so much trading the short side that they become numb to the loosing feeling, so the small profit is booked to soon capturing bread crumbs as opposed to successfully riding and adding to that winner.

          Which brings me back full circle to my James lesson, if and when the Big Kahuna came, and for those those even on this board that screamed it from the bloody rooftops, it would come, and it would just pass them right by. From my experience, the only vindication that person would get, is just being right that the correction came. I promise you though, they would not be any wealthier than he/she was the prior week, month, quarter or year, because they’re to afraid to see the whole trade(s) through. It would come and go, and all that would be left would be another I knew it story or what a great call, or I was right dream, “I’ll get them next time” which you and I know will never come.

          I have been burned for so many years trying to time that Kahuna short position that I simply don’t even try it anymore. If and when I do, I’m in the trade, and out quickly. However, I have taken notice to your fed unwinding balance sheet posts redently, and this began to makes a lot of sense to me a few months back with the roller coaster looking chart all year. Instead of buying puts, I began to sell 5 to 10 point call spreads near the tops to the tune of 50 to 100 SPX contracts and collecting $15,000 to $25,000 which has worked like a charm. So thank you for that advice. I owe you a steak and a beer. I’m a little hesitant this month, but will take on a smaller short call position this week for the end of July. Like the 2800/2805 call spread for July 27th which is paying about $2.50. Risk $2.5 to make $2.5 for 9 days. I like that risk/reward.

          Was hoping today we get a little pop and collect a little more, but didn’t happen. I’ll scale in with 25 contracts tomorrow some time, and will add 25 more if it rises throughout the day, but also by 50 or so September/October 2900 calls in case we do get a rip higher which I don’t see. Ideally, I buy some September calls for $7-10 and collect $2.50 that expire worthless as we get a pullback to 2740-2760 and I double down for the August mid month run up. It works until it doesn’t work anymore, but will try it again and let you know next month.

          Again, many blessings, and thanks for the feedback.

          • aahmichael says:

            George, the one thing that the 90s had in common with recent market action is that 1995 and 2017 were almost carbon copies of each other. In other words, both rose in a steady non-stop fashion with essentially no pullbacks whatsoever, with RSI pasted to the ceiling for the whole year. 1995 had always been thought of as a one-off-fluke until it happened again in 2017.

            Normally, I don’t add to a position as the market goes my way. When things work out right, I take my initial position, and then oftentimes during that same day, I’ll get additional signals which will cause me to add at that time. However, once that initial day is over, I’m usually loaded to the gills, and then that’s it for me. Then I just hold the position until I either get a reversal signal, or my trailing stop gets hit. Getting a reversal signal doesn’t mean I’ll actually reverse, though, as that’s determined on what I see as the main trend, one degree higher. I never trade what I believe is a countertrend move. I just get flat and wait until the next setup and signal occurs in the direction of the what I believe to be the main trend.

            Also, I trade OPM, so my trading goals are different than most. Each year my goal is to make 20% on an unleveraged basis, with the least amount of trades with the least amount of drawdown. So, I knew on 1/1/18 that my goal this year was 535 points per unleveraged contract. Anything above that is a bonus. Luckily, the volatility was huge in the 1st four months, so I had already exceeded my goal by a huge amount by May 1st. Anything on top of that for the rest of the year is a gift from the market

            You’re correct about the RSI, and that why I posted at the very beginning of February that I thought we’d get a 10%-12% decline before a blast off to new highs. However, because of the nature of the initial decline, and because of how awful the market has reacted to QT each month, then I adjusted my outlook, and now give new highs only a 50/50 probability.

            Lastly, a comment about your casino analogy. No matter what game you play in a casino, and no matter what you think your edge is, the fact of the matter is that the odds are almost always in the house’s favor, and the player is never allowed to be the house. The beauty of trading the market is that if you do your homework and you’re a disciplined trader, then you get to always be the house with huge odds always in your favor. That’s why I have never understood why pro traders ever go to casinos. For me, there is no better game anywhere in the world than the S&P futures.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Great post. I lost a small fortune in the past trying to short in a bull market. Being massively influenced by the media and blogs such as this. Ignoring technical calls that turned bullish from what looked like textbook short setups but being to stubborn to take the loss.

        When I finally realised my bearish bias and lack of money management was killing me I have been very successful without even having to invest too much time in trading. Many would call it luck. I disagree that it’s luck to continue to hold positions at all time highs whilst everyone is screaming crash. Takes more than luck in my opinion.

        There are many knowledgeable posters on here that just can’t seem to shake off their bearish bias. Then there are just nutcases like Gary that need to be read for humour rather than any trading advise.

        It’s just unfortunate that now I’ve finally got a handle on my trading the EU decide to massively increase margin requirements for all retail traders. Will pretty much have to call it a day.

        Where were the EU when I was making my massive losses hey?

        Anyway thanks again for your posts and all the best.

      • learnedmylesson25 says:

        What I got out of your tutorial is that your friend always did the opposite of your opinion–and made millions.Now you’re saying,”Go into the stock market,”after years of being bearish.Hmmmm.Costanza?

      • tommyboys says:

        George curious what you invest in if you get a chance…

      • Page says:

        Gary, where are you? George Nickolaou is talking about you, hurry and reply.

      • Nicklau:
        Super post. I am curious. Were (are) you a day trader in futures or a swing trader in ETF’s or ?

    • vivelaamo says:

      Your first sentence shows what a troll you are.

  18. bouraq says:

    Chart of the weekend is NATGAS at http://www.tradingchannels.uk

  19. mcgcapital says:

    I can see both a bullish and bearish side here in the short term. The key is seeing whether there’s a change in character on a break above 2800 or whether the choppiness continues. The strongest index has been the Nasdaq and I look at that and although it’s making higher highs, it still doesn’t look like a buy and hold type market to me. If something makes a new high by 1-2% then sells off 3-4+% repeatedly, I’m not sure that’s longer term bullish or whether it’s part of a larger topping pattern. I suspect the money is going to be made in actively trading the indices rather than trying to hold for SPX 3000+. Non US indices still don’t look great and are below key levels.

  20. fxaprendiz says:

    This reply for Jobjas 🙂
    To my eyes the current wave 4 we are in is well proportionate compared to the precedent up leg from Nov 16 to Jan 2018. That wave was 69 weeks long, and 0.618 of that gives us 39.5 weeks which would be the end of October, that is around the time I’m expecting SPX to bottom.
    Regarding the bottom, I’m expecting SPX to find it somewhere between the 2490 and 2416 levels (long red rectangle in the chart) which is the area of previous wave b:3, from where the steepest move started.

    Will it pan out exactly like that? there’s only probabilities in EW. But as I have said before, if you don’t have a clue as to the next step (wave) then it’s harder to trade and hold onto positions. Just in my experience…

    • fxaprendiz says:

      typo: it’s “64 weeks long”
      The right number in on the chart. I have to be more careful when posting in here, not being able to correct a post.

      • jobjas says:

        even before i read your comments a glance at your chart shows me a wave projection greater than 2015-2016 primary eave correction
        Again the beauty and ease of a visual presentation !

        • fxaprendiz says:

          LOL I don’t know why you sound so triumphalist?! We are just exchanging ideas here, not wrestling to see who is right or “more right”.
          Anyway, regarding the 2015-2016 correction, that was 38 weeks long and 15.4% down. Current correction, would be 39ish weeks long but only about 14% down if it stops around 2475ish in SPX. So it would be greater on price but not on percentage terms which are what one should care about.
          But I guess I get what you are saying… that current correction then would be of the same degree than the 2015-2016 correction. Well, it may very well be, but that’s a theme to be taken up once (if) we indeed go under 2530. For now it’s still a degree lower.
          (and I couldn’t open your link for some reason)

          • jobjas says:

            there is nothing triumphalist , in fact I really appreciate you and others posting charts since EW is highly visual and has been encouraging others to do so.

            • jobjas says:

              hope this link works

              • fxaprendiz says:

                Yep, it worked 🙂
                Your lower rectangle should have started a few weeks earlier, on May 2015 but we are not discussing time now but price, I think. Again, price-wise the 2018 correction would be bigger, but smaller on percentages terms, unless and until it’s bigger than 15.4%
                As I was saying, it could be of the same degree, EW-wise, than the 2015-16 waves. Primary wave degree for OEW and Intermediate degree for me as I don’t use the Major wave of OEW. But for now it’s still a wave degree below Primary, and if you are right and we are already in wave 5, then it would remain of that degree.

    • Bill Manscoe says:

      Your blue line and thought are what I posted a couple months ago without charts. My analysis was more cyclical than OEW but it works for me using a 7 yr cycle. It might change some. Just follow the 40 week cycle.

  21. emuntrader says:

    The currently uptrend as of Friday the 13th, 2018 – Does not look anything like 2008 or 2001. All TREND lines pointed in the same direction as of Friday.

  22. tommyboys says:

    France beats Croatia – takes WC! Putin there watching 😁

  23. learnedmylesson25 says:
  24. J.Wenger says:

    Thanks again Tony. Broadly speaking, the flattening yield curve is definitely a concern, but once it happens we still have some time to make adjustments. I still expect the rest of the summer to be fairly choppy, but at least we got past the 2787 level….and the uptrend rolls on.

    • mjtplayer says:

      Historically, as soon as the yield curve inverts via the 2-10 spread, that’s the sell in stocks as markets top right around that time.

      When the yield curve inverts, official recession typically follows 18 months later, give or take a few months.

      When we are officially in recession, that’s historically the bottom in stocks.

      The yield curve should invert later this year, setting up a top in the markets, bear market and recession into early/mid 2020

      • So it would seem.
        But usually life is not as simple as it would seem.

        Here’s 36 years of the “yield curve”, the Red thin line (10’s minus 2’s).
        Currently at 24 BPs. (.24%), the solid thin red line.
        Shaded red area 0.00% to -0.50% is the inverted part.

        Problem with the simple strategy (OMG ! It’s going negative now!!)
        … is that it started to do that in late 1994, (was about right where it is now)
        then wandered around for the next nearly 5 years without actually going solidly negative.
        And during that time, the $SPX (the black thin line) moved from 450 to 1450.
        That must have been a very nasty 5 years to be short.

        So, I’m not sure what kind of trading signal the yield curve offers,
        but I will probably be very cautious about taking any direction at all from that..


  25. phil1247 says:

    the faster the FED reduces its balance sheet

    the faster stocks go up …………….

    NDX 8000 +
    … ie melt up part deux

      • phil1247 says:

        remember all the howling last year at spx 2400 when i showed this
        and called for “melt up ” before it was fashionable to do so?

        once again nobody is talking meltup today
        so why not ” melt up part deux” ahead ?

        i know i know …..
        IMPOSSIBLE ….. it must CRASH .. yada yada

        NDX 8000+

        you heard it here first folks ….. enjoy !

      • emuntrader says:

        Phil, I with you all the way to new all time highs.

    • aahmichael says:

      5 stocks in the NDX are not representative of “the stock market.” A more accurate representation of “the stock market” would be the 2000 stocks in the NYSE Composite. (symbol: NYA)

    • tommyboys says:

      Phil playing devils advocate here. Why will NDX rally as Fed balance sheet drops? Common wisdom ‘here’ amongst the fear mongers is that markets will sell with each additional QT… 😳

      • mcgcapital says:

        It’s not 1 for 1 but liquidity matters and it’s a headwind, so we can have a good economy and earnings but stocks not going anywhere (or down) just as we had a weak economy and earnings but stocks flying during the early part of this bull market when liquidity was being pumped in to the system. It doesn’t mean stocks have to fall but it’s a factor that is net negative

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      No correlation.

  26. amittsite says:

    hello Tony..Namastey…is this count possible..
    thanks for being there..

    • tony caldaro says:

      that’s too big a failure

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Wouldn’t it be something if that was a fake breakout?We’ll know soon enough.Possible with seasonals bearish,but a rally from here–wiping out the normal bearish seasonal pattern–would be of course, bullish.

  27. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Bull argument:Embedded stochastics(not IWM).
    Bear argument:Bollinger’s straight ahead.
    Seasonal argument:Bullish until July 17th,bearish after.
    Conclusion:A quick ride on the bb’s,embedded gives way after the 17th,bearish finish to the month.
    Thanks Mr C for your best estimate.

  28. Just for aahmichael and Lieberalwitz. pretty sure Mr. El Erian knows more about this than you do. Of course, you’re ego wouldn’t allow you to admit it.

    • aahmichael says:

      No one wins in a trade war, and El Erian knows that, which is why he repeatedly said that the US would win “in relative terms.” So, if a full blown trade war occurs, and global stocks decline 40% but SPX only declines 38%, then you can proudly proclaim the US the winner in relative terms, and say “I told you so.”

      • Page says:

        agree, El Erian is a pro Trump puppy who has been hoping for a slot in the Trump’s admin. he comes on CNBC says all the good things about Trump just like Larry Kudlow did and got the job, they know Trump watches CNBC regularly, so why would he bash Trump? all politics.

      • What really blows my mind is all of the kooky Dems and half of the Repubs want to blow up about the tariffs. Tell me this, how else are you going to get out of this absolute disaster with the Chinese with the intellectual property issue, the free shipping issues, and the hundreds of other issues they screw us on? Do you just say pretty please like Barack the Communist Obama did, and let them continue to steam roll you. Use the WTO to fight your battle for you? What a complete joke! You have to fight fire with fire. This is the only game they know. Let’s see, On 6/15 the Shanghai Composite was 3029 and now it is 2839. If you knew halfway what you were talking about, you would know Trump is not seeking a trade war. He is after fairness and parity in the marketplace Why is that so hard for you to understand? That’s easy. You hate him and will not give him credit for anything. End of story.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Everyone can see there’s a problem with Chinese trading practices, but it’s not something that just affects the US it affects most of the rest of the world too. So you could say an alternative to the tariffs would have been to persue international agreement on action.

          That being said, now that tariffs have been implemented as the course of action let’s not pretend that this is good for the economy or bullish for markets. It just isn’t, mainly because it’s not a case of the US vs China, it’s actually a case of importers vs exporters, or consumers vs manufacturers. Anything that increases costs to the consumer is a negative economic force… there’s a reason the US imports so much stuff from China in the first place and it’s because it’s cheaper to do so than buying domestically produced goods.

          That’s not to say that Trump is wrong to do what he’s doing on trade in the US national interest… just that don’t be surprised if there are negative consequences. It’s potentially a Pandora’s box if the Chinese economy gets disrupted given how much debt has accumulated there. Has the potential to cause a credit crunch, which would be very negative for the rest of the world including the US.

          It feels like most people in the US have a blinkered view on anything involving politics as opinions are either Trump is the saviour and can do no wrong, or literally everything he does is the wrong thing to do. I’m yet to read a post from an American that is objective and down the middle… some stuff he’s done is good for earnings/economy/stocks and other stuff he’s done is bad for earnings/economy/stocks. Both sides need to acknowledge that

          • mcg:
            Then let the other nations that are victimized by China stand up on their hind legs and do something about it.
            International forums are controlled by globalists who are the nefarious clique which profits from all the evil practices.

        • Waters:
          Excellent post. You can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs. If the sound of an eggshell cracking terrifies you, get out of the kitchen.

  29. xuwu992000 says:

    My 2 cents:
    1, the possibility of a LD count is very low, chiefly due to the very shallow retrace afterwards (normally >76%); For a LD or ED to be valid, the after pattern should be the tell. So far, LD is off the table for me.
    2, based on my timing mechanism, the final top of this bull will be achieved later this year (before mid-term), during a very precarious time window. The market already had a blow-off top last year, the following wave should be more modest, hence the alternation.
    3, a tradable retrace is on deck early next week, most likely on Monday, after filling the 2812 gap. An extremely bumpy period will last a couple of weeks, to shake off the weak longs.

  30. jobjas says:

    NDX,NAZ RUT are clearly impulsing to complete wave 5 from 1800 bottom
    SPX and DOW are lagging and not clear wave count wise . I have been tracking theses two as ending diagonals and expecting a wave down for iv and a wave up for v to complete 5 waves
    These wave down and wave up are equivalent to the two waves that need to complete in NDX NAZ RUT (notice the color coded lines)
    Thus all the indices can align by the end of these two moves- completing 5 waves fro 1800

  31. Arthur Knopf says:

    SENTIMENT UPDATE: Fast Track to Nowhere

  32. fxaprendiz says:

    Rule and Guidelines regarding the length of wave X of a double-three:
    Rule: The minimum Wave X retracement is 70% of of wave W.
    Guideline: Wave X is usually less than 140% of W by price.
    Guideline: Wave X is usually greater than 95% of wave W by price. The most likely retracement for Wave X is 110% of Wave W.

    SPX has already satisfied the rule of a minimum 70% pullback for Wave X, it touched 78.6. It may go as far as the 88.6 fibo retracement at 2837 and then rollover, which is my favored scenario. But there’s nothing rule-wise stopping if from going much higher and still be within a Wave X.

    Daily chart updated. Double-three with the shape of a flat-x-zigzag.

      • fxaprendiz says:

        Jobjas, here’s the thing, you and me are using arithmetic charts when in a weekly and monthly scale they should be Logarithmic charts to avoid distortion on proportion. But if we talk about percentages not price you’ll surely agree the difference it’s not as great as it looks. Your first correction is 6.4%, the second one is 7.3%, and the current one we are in is so far 12%.
        Now, it is indeed taking a lot of time, but after an extreme move its corresponding correction usually takes a lot of time for the market to digest the extreme move. Everybody agreed that the take off from Nov 2016 was steep, then from August 2017 it was too fast too soon, and it accelerated even more on January 2018. It was unsustainable.
        In fact that’s one of the reasons I’m expecting a second leg down to below 2500: SPX should revisit the area from where it accelerated before restarting its up trajectory, so the next move up can be more sustainable. It doesn’t HAVE to have a second leg down, but on the same token, it’s not like it can’t.

        • jobjas says:

          I was talking more in terms of time (x axis) than % correction .
          As far as log chart anything lesser than 5-7 yrs should be linear chart unless it is a parabolic move like BTC

          • jobjas says:

            Also ,see how a visual representation ( instead of a description ) gives a different picture – the very reason I recommend people to post charts

            • fxaprendiz says:

              I agree posting charts along with your thoughts is much better. Only that my very slow and shaky internet connection makes it very hard to post charts. Anyway, I posted above a chart depicting my thoughts regarding proportion of waves 4 and 3, which is what I usually do. I don’t compare wave 4 with wave 2 much as they are usually very different, with alternation and stuff.

  33. Hi
    I understand fully understand teh importance of risk management but had a question. For IRS purposes I do not qualify as a trader. So the trades would be wash sales if repurchased within 30 days for any minor losses…correct? Have any had problems with use of wash sales? or are you mostly traders here?

    • aahmichael says:

      If you trade ETFs, then you will always be subject to wash sales. The way to avoid that and trade like a pro is to trade futures, never ETFs. Of course, you might have heard horror stories about people going broke trading futures, but that’s because they used too much leverage. However, there is no requirement to use any leverage at all when trading futures. So, if you want to trade ES on an unleveraged basis, then trade 1 contract for every $140,000 that you have in your account, As I’ve mentioned before, the other great advantage to trading futures versus ETFs, is that all futures profits are treated as 60% long term gains and 405 short term gains. That’s a huge advantage over ETFs, which are treated as 100% short term gains.

  34. 123 abc says:

    Absolutely superb analysis Tony, masterful technical detail.

    Q: In regards to SPX, at what price would have confirmed the downtrend for wave-e of the triangle?



  35. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  36. Mary773 says:

    Thanks a million, Tony.
    No change to the market outlook: SPX bottomed on the nine year cycle 2/9/2018 and everything that has happened since indicates the market will go much higher until virtually everyone believes it cannot possibly go down…and then it will get killed. We are not there. We are not close to being there. The significant lows since 2009 have been accompanied by bovine excrement end-of-world news (Greece, Spain, Brexit, fiscal cliff, Fukushima, and on and on and on). That makes it so good that TRADE WARS! have arrived. Now the masses can be reluctant to buy – until the market has gone much higher – because TRADE WARS! will be the death of us all. Never mind that all the TRADE WARS! news has presented great buying opportunities. The multi-trillion dollar game is called “Let’s keep the sheeple nervous until the top.” It would not be surprising if SPX makes its high coinciding with TRADE WARS! ending.

    • I am placing Trade War headwinds as high as I did when I saw consumer disposable income at decade highs in late 2015. Follow the logical path instead of mass (emotional) lagging psychology. Market seems to ignores trade wars and influences the masses to make same conclusion. Difference is that the market is a super tanker that takes lots of time to slow down, stop, reverse course. My theory is that PANIC has set in from other parts of the world because the first casualty will be overseas. China and EU will see their market lead the downfall. Make no mistake, no one wins. the individual however should know better and be better prepared for the reversal. In no way shape or form can a world trade war against all our partners be good for earnings. In no way can a complete giveaway of 2 trillion to already rich corporations and very top tier individuals be a sustaining force for growth.

      Market movement are laggards to major reversal events. The mortgage debacle is a great example. It took a long time to start the huge slide. We already have 6 months behind us on preparing for trade wars. I wish I know this timeline but since we had a 6 month head start and have accelerated the tariffs recently it seems ILLOGICAL the market can ignore it going forward. This feels like the last hurrah.

      I leave you with Mahler Symphony 2 a grand beautiful rendition of the human life cycle but taken from the funeral to a supernatural rebirth. Called “Resurrection”.

  37. Lee X says:

    Thanks for sharing your work

    “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. “

  38. stormchaser80llc says:

    Check out my FREE and OPEN blog page for the latest information on market trends. Please sign up for a FREE login should you want to read daily postings that are more actionable for trading.


  39. kvilia says:

    Thank you, Tony, glad you are feeling better or at.
    A bit confused with crude outlook. You have been suggesting $80 (or 85) by 2020, and its been $75 few days back. You are indicating its in uptrend (at what point you will change your opinion?). Are you expecting higher highs still coming soon?

  40. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/13/house-republicans-rod-rosenstein-impeachment-719816

    Round One on Monday. Lets see if the firing of Rosenstein or the indictment of trump derails this march upward. If either of these two events unfold the world markets will be shaken up badly. Desperate times, desperate measures. The Mueller report just released is pretty clear they have closed in on Trump. Collusion, obstruction, ethics violations are clearly going to be in the final report. The deadline seems to be September or earlier. I sure hope the market can move quickly to its final top because the race is on. Which will get there first?

    • tony caldaro says:

      October, just before the midterms
      It’s all political … just like your posts =(

      • Sorry but running a country like Putin does is not political, it’s un-democratic. We either run under republic laws or we are a dictatorial nation at the whim of leaders. What other political force would endorse a meeting with Putin one on one right after Mueller’s report? You do understand implication? We endorse their invasion and do harm to our allies. Can anyone explain any rational for this behavior? More importantly can anyone explain the silence by majority? I never care if Republicans or Democrats rule. I care about upholding our basic tenets. The 30’s had over 3 million KKK members influencing the Republican election. the 50’s the Commie scare resulting in lost constitutional freedoms. Why do you insist its political? Was it political to have internment camps for Japanese? Purging of Jews in Germany starting in 1933?

        I guess living thru such pivotal times is not recognized till after the fact or more precisely after the devastation. managing to avoid the devastation is worse for our nation because it just reinforces the complete dismantling of a very imperfect but beneficial system. I suspect only after such an economic devastation will we reflect on the cause.

        Can anyone go back 3 years and envision the US behavior of today? You would think that person lost his mind. Yet we accept all things until it finally affects all. That’s the achilleas heel in the human race.

        To label my concerns as political is disheartening. I thought it was about the very structure of our nations birth. Have you actually read my concerns from day one of trumps inauguration? The only funny thing about it is that it came true and most arguments against me was that it couldn’t. Now the tune is I am pushing a Democrat verses Republican theme. Really?

    • kjb0 says:

      Gary….you should see a doctor….you may have a bad case of ” cranial rectumitus”. You have all the symptoms.

      • How many times have you asked a rapist or home invasion person over for tea? You can pretend that normal. me, I’ll stick to my irrational behavior. But where are the children? more importantly why no one gives a shit? When it happens to YOU perspectives seem to change doesn’t it. The best I can preach not being a Christian is “Do Unto others…”. Seems most here don’t accept or understand it’s meaning. You accept Putin’s attack on us? Consider it a democrat vs republican argument? He invaded our nation as surely as he did Crimea. His agenda runs our country now. One of my many delusional arguments perhaps? Funny when I present FACTS no one challenges it but instead skirts around it. Can you figure out why? Don’t Care? Not affecting you? As short sighted as believing our children will not suffer from global warming. We are at the peak of selfishness.

        • mcgcapital says:

          The issue is not that some of us don’t think the separation of children from their parents isn’t a terrible thing. It’s that we’re on a trading blog debating markets and none of this stuff has any relevance to financial markets. There’s lots of political newsflow at the moment that is going to be relevant but you seem unable to distinguish between what’s likely to impact on the economy/corporate profits/jobs/investor sentiment and stuff which is just a moral conscience issue which has no place being discussed here. As far as I can see, trade is a legitimate topic for discussion if it’s done in an unbiased fashion but all of this other stuff including immigration/Russia collusion/protesting has no place here

        • Page says:

          agree … keep it up 😀

  41. schizo1688 says:

    The real question is will market sell off big time in last week of JULY .. and this pattern hasn’t change since Jan,2018 .. all this Elliot wave charting is only a theory

  42. fenster6 says:

    Thanks Tony

    I took this sentence below from your up-date last week-end and since in jived with my thoughts went short so it was a tough week.

    “Other than that we are still expecting lower lows (SPX 2692) this month.”

  43. Great review and outlook, Tony! If this is a 3rd Wave higher, we should see the takeoff this coming week……I am expecting it!

    • schizo1688 says:

      Tony said minor wave 3 thru 5 to 3048.. so how low is minor 4 gonna be then ?

    • searchme2017 says:

      June 27, 2018 at 3:17 pm

      Your suggesting 3 of 3 up

      searchme2017 says:
      June 27, 2018 at 6:27 pm

      I’m suggesting the ABC flat from late January ended at the April low and since then we have been impulsing up and correcting down and the low for the “DOW” was on the 25th at a 61.8% retrace from the 06/11 high and an expanded flat from that level is a wave #2 of some degree (probably minor).

      The “S&P” has had basically the same configuration and its retrace was 38.2%.

      So…..yes, I believe we are very close ………if not already in a “three of a three” which will take the indices to new highs.

      The initial wave #1 was an extremely rare diagonal triangle…..never even mentioned by Ralph Nelson Elliott…. but noticed on rare occasions by others. Triangles are by their very nature……. choppy.

      • searchme2017 says:

        My initial post should have said……..”Diagonal Triangles in the “Wave One” position are extremely rare…….

  44. Bill Manscoe says:

    Tony is just me or are wave structures getting more complex. Or could it be that since we are dealing with higher values I just notice them more.

  45. alexh110 says:

    Thanks Tony.
    Looks like a perfect short setup right now, with lots of -D and trend parity.
    That suggests to me an irregular Minor 2 flat is still underway, with the c-wave to come.

    • wavediver says:

      I agree. Great opportunity for an irregular 2 to trigger a downtrend confirmation.

  46. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Agree with your analysis as always.

  47. Thanks,Tony. Daily 34 ma topping. Pullback should be no surprise. Sp 500, Dow, Ndx charts.


  48. phil1247 says:

    Thanks Tony

    i have been calling this a 3rd wave for a while now
    despite the howlings of some to the contrary
    as mentioned previously i am uncomfortable when we are not in agreement
    but ……………… no problemo now amigo 🙂

    if we are correct ” straight up or not at all” part deux
    is straight ahead
    nq is already showing the way straight up now
    and remains in extensions at new highs
    what could be more bullish ??

Comments are closed.