Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -219

The SPX rallied 1.2% the first two days of the week. Then overnight Tuesday, it was reported the US was preparing an additional $200B in tariffs against China. Naturally China stated they would retaliate. ES futures dropped immediately and remained substantially lower heading into Wednesday’s open. Asian markets dropped 0.8% overnight, and European markets lost 1.4%. The SPX gapped down to 2776 at the open, closed at 2794 yesterday, rallied to 2786, then headed lower. The low for the day was SPX 2771 just past 2pm. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2774.

While perusing the charts yesterday we noticed a very clean rising diagonal in the NYSE from the April downtrend low. Then a large pullback during June. Followed by a rally into early July: https://bit.ly/2ubPmvR. This pattern could explain the choppiness in the SPX/DOW over the past few months. Diagonals are created by three wave advances, in an overall contracting five wave pattern. We carried the same leading diagonal pattern onto the DOW charts, even though the ‘e’ wave has some overshoot: https://bit.ly/2KXDjfB. When you add in the two counts posted on the SPX charts, bulls and bears have plenty to choose from. Overall, two of three counts suggest higher prices are ahead for this month. When one adds in the impulsive NDX/NAZ/R2K patterns, and new highs in market breadth, probabilities suggest this April uptrend will continue. A rally above SPX 2802 would eliminate the Int. wave iv triangle posted on the SPX daily chart too. Good luck, and best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend still underway

LONG TERM: uptrend

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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344 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Sorry to discuss politics but people in the Uk are protesting about Trump. Yet when the king of Saudi Arabia visits UK, not a single protest. Yet these people are the intelligent once not influenced by the media.

    Makes me sick.

    • Makes me LMFAO…..Islington’s finest………ts

    • Imagine UK prime minister invited to USA. During national TV coverage admonish Trump over his immigration and trade policy. THEN add insult to injury by enduring the Democratic opponent as the next president. How about threatening NATO that US will leave. Germany for pipeline to Russia and distorting reliance from 9 percent to 70. Telling May if she has a soft Brexit the USA will not have a trade deal with UK. Endorsed Boris Johnson as the next prime minister as they stand side by side on national TV press conference. Slamming EU with auto tariffs next week. Pretending he didn’t get the memo on 12 additional indictments of Russian in hacking of our election. Finding out that a US CONGESSIONAL election individual was also involved in receiving dirt on their opponent thru Russian hacker Lucifer 2.0, same as TRUMPs source.

      Makes you sick, don’t it? But you haven’t seen nothin yet! Biggest Banana Republic in histroy is the US of A today! I dare anyone to dispute this. If you want I can add about 100 more known ethics, corruption, moral violations. Trump supporters live under a rock or have as much ethics, common sense, morals, empathy as a rock. Where are the dozen children 5 and under? GONE FOREVER! Deported mothers and declared the issue dead.

      Makes ya kinda sick, don’t it?

      • gtoptions says:

        🇺🇸 🇺🇸 💪🏼 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

      • mcgcapital says:

        I watched the press conference and he didn’t do a bad job at diffusing the questions which were deliberately provocative to be fair, not sure what you’d have had him say instead. Boris Johnson is the same party as May, they just disagree on what should happen with Brexit. Nobody here wants a soft Brexit, so the current plan is very unpopular. People either want to stay in the EU or they want to leave properly and this is neither. Trump had picked up on that but he also wanted to be seen to back the government too. He’s obviously pro Brexit as he doesn’t like dealing with the bureaucracy of the EU.

        As for the protesters, most of them have no clue what they’re even protesting for. The silent majority here don’t care who your President is or what he’s doing within reason. He probably wouldn’t be electable in the UK and if he were, he’d struggle under our political system to do anything as he’s too divisive to command a majority in the House of Commons on most issues so wouldn’t last very long. But for the most part people respect him as the US head of state and want to do a trade deal with him


        • Maybe you should reconsider your view? this is their view.

          • mcgcapital says:

            The first video you’ve posted appears to be pre press conference, and it’s in the press conference where he pulled back on some of the things he’d already said as May convinced him that post Brexit under her plan we’ll still be able to control our own trade.

            Second video is irrelevant really.. yeah there were thousands of protesters. But the population is 65 million and those people there don’t represent the majority view. Most of them are probably students with nothing better to do

          • vivelaamo says:

            Scary scenes. If Corbyn left wing labour and this lot ever got in power I wouldn’t spend days on end posting about how he will destroy the country (or world ) on a trading blog. I would just leave the country.

            Come to UK Gary. These bums will have you.

            • WHERE ARE THE CHILDREN! Try to whitewash this one. How about PROOF of a congressional candidate openly asking the Russian in August of 2016 to get dirt on their opponent. Man the whole GOP must be in on this and from the beginning. Of course Kushner’s 5 revisions of security clearance missing Russian contacts each time, Sessions got caught lying to the GOP and got a hand shake for it. House committee allowed people to refuse to answer questions. on and on we go and for some strange reason logic and connecting dots seem to be a big problem here. Let me spell it out in plain language. TODAY the GOP is complicit with TREASON! TODAY they are doing everything to lie about the Russian Invasion and placing blame on hard working government career people. SHAME ON US ALL to accept this in the USA. Your lack of empathy and refusal to announce the truth of the situation speaks volumes.

              TRUMP lies on a daily basis. He attacks heads of state, nations, tries to incite, influence elections OUTSIDE our country, is ruthless and inhumane with his dictatorial policies. Hello, these are FACTS. He is no different than Putin. In fact he is the Putin in America. Even after a year of facts you somehow compartmentlike his disgusting treasonous behavior as acceptable. After the pushback against his own administration when he demanded to make it clear he saw the KKK and Nazi’s as the same as the other marchers. NO ambiguity there. he announced then and there he was a racist. if you were too obtuse to see it then perhaps his POLICIES would make you aware. My only conclusion is that 40 percent of American are racists, fear anyone that is different, and accepts brutal behavior as somehow justified.

              TRUMPS ratings were the SAME before and after the incident with the 3,000 non-human creatures. I am ashamed. Yes LONDON protests simply because they have nothing other to do. Yes this nation in the millions protest for no reason. Your interpretation of events is the same as the Nazi’s used as they exterminated millions. We today are no different. We just proved it with the uncaring nature of horrendous treatment of poor immigrants. Separating FOREVER infants from their mothers because the had the audacity to seek a better life.

              DISCUSS THIS ONE ISSUE OR MOVE ON, “The Children”. If you refuse to I refuse to listen to your anesthetic rational. Trump will be indicted and the gutless complicit GOP will look at their constituents and the polling suggesting they still love Trump and allow him to stay as President till they are forced by becoming a minority. We are an immoral desensitized selfish nation already. Endorsing Moore wasn’t YOUR litmus test? Tearing babies from mothers? calling McCain as less than worthy because he got himself captured? Treating woman like slaves at his bidding? Endorsing the KKK and Nazi’s? Trump himself epitomizes all that is disgusting in a person. Even the head of FOC NEWS broke down for a moment and placed ONE MILLION to the anti-defamation league. he quickly recovered his immorality by banning this report be placed on any pro-trump site. Everything stated is F-A-C-T. Obviously my view of immoral is different that yours.

              • vivelaamo says:

                I don’t know anything about the children. It sounds like a sad situation. What I do know is if I lived in a country that was ran by a ruthless dictator as you tend to suggest and I had an option to leave. I would. Why are you still living in the US if it’s that bad?

      • Do unto others…. Anytime you hear a policy, executive order, political platform, government ruling place yourself as if you are the recipient of that action. An example: Imagine living in an environment of poverty, violence and corruption. Taking your toddler for months trying to cross the border where you can find a better life. Finding out the status for all illegal immigrants is the same, no asylum and prosecuting to fullest extent of law with your child permanently taken away. Now a normal person would empathize but might still decide no illegals allowed in unless they have a real reason for fearing their lives if they return. So you capture them, process, determine a small percentage is allowed to stay and release the rest back across the border. INSTEAD TRUMP vilifies them, treats them as murderers and subhuman. You gladly accept this view? no backlash, no empathetic cringe, no thoughts that it is the harshest punishment for being poor in a poor country. By all means don’t look at all the government stats on how productive immigrants are to or society and focus on a rape case or a gang. How do people think this way without ever letting in a little light?

        This really has nothing to do with the market other than proof that we are in sync with peaks in economic blow off as our moral compass points straight down. All societies are in line at extremes between economic euphoria and cultural and moral degradation. I know my words have little meaning and most think I am way over the top but tell me why history has always validated my claims as each generation experiencing what the prior one couldn’t teach us. That’s why it happens as the next generation starts fresh on the same path.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Gary most the people protesting kno don’t half of what you’ve posting or even care. They are just brainwashed by the politically correct Liberia media and have nothing better to do so jump on protest band wagon. They are just bums with nothing better to do. London is massively disconnected from the rest of the UK.

        The rest of the country are busy at work.

        We don’t care about Trump.

      • purplember says:

        Gary TRUMP TRAIN !! all aboard

      • waterstim says:

        You make me kinda sick. Where were you when the Marxist/Communist Barack Obama damn near destroyed the country completely? These people committed treason and everyone of them belong in Leavenworth, including Barack Obama. He is a deceiver of the highest order, somewhere right there with Satan himself. And you aren’t much better. Tony has asked many times for people not to post political garbage….and you do it relentlessly. NOW GO AWAY, YOU LIBERAL BLABBERMOUTH!

        • fenster6 says:

          Obama a marxist…ha!
          Did you even look up the definition of a marxist? The rich got a LOT richer under his tenure. He increased how many taxes…none. He killing Bin Laden a priority, he took the USA from a near depression in 3208 to a boom, lets see if trump can manage a round trip?

          You go away you reactionary revisit fake fact peddler

      • fenster6 says:

        He cant help it. His brain and mouth and tweeting thumb are connected by the same syphlis infected neurone. It just fires off and there is no filter

    • ewmarkets says:

      No need to feel sick to your stomach. Negative emotions are a product of not meeting expectations. King of Saudi Arabia vs. President of the United States: Brits (and the world) have a certain expectation of who each is or ought to be and what each (ought to) stand for. In the case of President Trump, people who came out to protect felt he didn’t meet their expectations of a US president so they came out to protest. In the case of the King of Saudi Arabia, people felt his policies/conduct matched their expectations of him so people did not come out to protest.

      So in the case of King of Saudi Arabia vs. President of the United States, a bigger protest crowd is just a reflection of a bigger disappointment evaluated against respective expectations, not a reflection of perceived worse badness.

    • fotis2 says:

      Intelligent??These are the useful idiots

  2. Congratulations bulls your 98.7 of the way to confirming this is going to 3100. Last hurdle foe me is surpassing 2830. If so next pull pack I will take a ride on the long bus. Short bus sucked this week.

    • phil1247 says:

      trying

      did you see that nq did not break the extension long
      on the chart i sent you ?

      as long as it holds
      nq is already in the ” straight up ” situation now
      with targets up at 7605
      ie about 200 points higher

      if so SPX should have little trouble testing its all time highs

    • CampFreddie says:

      Thanks for congrats, but its been a nice long ride up on the “Long Bus”, you might find yourself getting on just as I am getting off. GL.

  3. E says:

    Do you guys actually long/short call/put this etf or do you watch this movement and trade more specific stocks and sectors?

    • E says:

      By this etf, I mean spy or spx

      • Ashley says:

        I use SH, 1X short ETF and SPY, Id go even nuttier if I could trade futures LOL

        • emuntrader says:

          $SPX. I almost took the trade with you. but decided to sit out. I do prefer more downside (below 2811) before upside, but so close to 2811 that i sat this one out. IF we come down, I’ll be looking for a swing position to the upside.or if we go up, I’ll be looking for a swing position to the upside – the outcome is the same for me. UPSIDE. Just looking for entry.

          • emuntrader says:

            have a great weekend everybody. see you next week. Have a beach holiday with the family next week. So I might not be around too much. GL

  4. predict the close 2790
    Should sell off a little for some profit taking and give both bulls and bears hope over the weekend

  5. stan911 says:

    Snp gap 2810 seems to be a issue still have 1 1/2 hours to go but struggling, I’d wanna see that filled otherwise market show it’s weakness

  6. E says:

    Volume completely drying up fellows…

  7. Page says:

    Who is going to win the World Cup, France or Croatia?
    I think France will.

  8. So far this Market is like all the good friday the 13th movies. It just wont die.

    See ya all next week

  9. Theodore Lerts says:

    SPX is going to close almost totally flat today. BIG rally coming Monday/Tuesday

  10. fionamargaret says:

    2767, 2750….I am short from around 2802….
    SQQQ, TZA, TVIX, VXX…put in bids at certain numbers and filled…
    TLT or TMF….lots of upside….TMF to 24

  11. phil1247 says:

    BONDS

    blue horseshoe says
    here is a good place to exit TLT and TMF
    wait to enter short position for now

    see ya all next week!

  12. ttsden says:

    MCG. For you Confucius say you will have long illustrious and prosperous career . Be blessed.

  13. fotis2 says:

    One of the many jokers running the EU

  14. phil1247 says:

    if we are in wave 3 of 3 up
    we should know very soon
    bursting above 2808 SPX
    would put us into new extensions
    and enter another “straight up or not at all ” situation
    as i discussed previously which was just the start of wave 3

    it will be quite obvious at that ” point of recognition”
    that we are headed straight up to the 2849 target

    ok thats my story and im stickin to it
    until proven otherwise

  15. gary61b says:

    ES long from 2795/92 has a target of 2713…
    ES 2801 needs to hold as support or a slip back into lower volume cluster is possible. 2801-2789 below that 2788 – 2772 https://gyazo.com/e04886cf4e74b80a13e079b7a8128394
    Many blue magnets awaiting attention below 2801.
    https://gyazo.com/269f0008c141980b10c51db72ad9bdf4

  16. fxaprendiz says:

    I told you guys that these next few days would be very difficult to trade for both sides. Weak longs and shorts being stopped out. 2805 the high in my trading platform so far, 2804 in my charting software. Not what I would expect for a false breakout but it’s still early today. On the other hand there’s a harmonic bearish Bat formed in the 4hr charts that was signalling at least a quick move down.
    As the market is kind of schizophrenic right now I decided to play it without going all in on either direction. I have raised the SL on my tactical fading long of 2772, from 2770 to 2775 . I had planned to go flat at 2804 with a short of equal size, because of the bearish bat formed there, but as there was/still is a good chance of a false breakout, I placed instead an order to sell for only 2/5 of my tactical long, which was triggered overnight. Now I have placed short orders at 2815, 2825 and 2835 to cover the other 3/5 of my long as (if) SPX goes up on the false breakout.
    I have the 2804, 2818 and 2852 fibo levels in my 4hr chart, but zooming out there’s two, more important fibo levels in the daily chart, at 2833 and 2837 in SPX. Those are the levels depicted in my previous post chart.
    So, I’m covered for any eventuality for next 2-3 trading days. SPX climbs up to 2835ish, my tactical long gets covered completely. SPX goes down before reaching 2804 again and triggers my 2775 SL, my tactical fading long is gone and my for now dormant shorts from 2804 get activated.
    So I’m on autopilot right now, just watching price action and letting the market decide. No emotional rollercoaster at the moment.
    Will only start managing my positions actively again until either 2835 or 2775 get triggered.
    For now, it’s still long but only for 3/5 of the original size.
    Ideally, SPX would raise to the 2833-37 fibo levels by Tuesday-Wed then turn around and down. Let’s see.

  17. mjtplayer says:

    I count 5 waves up from the April low, with 5 waves up in wave 5 from the late June low.

    So, who’s got the guts to short the NDX?

    • phil1247 says:

      why step in front of a freight train?
      wait for ext long to fail first

    • Ashley says:

      Nice neg divergence at the upper TL, nearly 10 years straight up at bubble valuations, possible wave 5 ED and on and on and on….. What else is a bear to do??? Good spot for a small short, all of my targets have been met GL =)

    • stcoleridge says:

      Four count Soul, who nailed the recent 6950 bottom, is calling for the 7450 level.

  18. emuntrader says:

    A close @ 2811 or above would negate another down movement. Daily looks like a 5-wave advance from the low to complete minute wave i, but the smaller times seem to have already completed minute wave i.
    Sitting in cash may take a small short if i see something happens, otherwise may just continue to sit and watch.
    GL

  19. jobjas says:

    CL projection

  20. Page says:

    Market is gathering shorts then carry them above 2800 today.

  21. E says:

    Will start rebounding around 2790

  22. E says:

    Final bear trap

  23. Lee X says:

    ATTTP

    Thx Tony
    Have a good weekend

  24. alexh110 says:

    ES looks pretty good for a short: symmetrical trends, ending at a pivot, with multiple negative divergences. Have increased my shorts from 2797.

  25. gary61b says:

    ES this AM has a short on deck from 2801.25 with T 2792.75.. just above the 2711 LIS.

  26. Did not expect to wake up and futures be flat. Expectedmup or down 8-10.

    Going to be an interesting Friday the 13 th.

  27. phil1247 says:

    es
    thought the boys would take it up to 2810 target last nite
    only took it to 2807.25
    that is a huge front run
    are they using a new trick now ?

  28. alexh110 says:

    Tony, my analysis of the weekly MACD patterns indicates the NDX/NAZ and SPX all appear to be in Intermediate wave v; but the Dow seems to be stuck in Intermediate wave iv.

    Perhaps the Dow is the anchor that’s weighing down the rest of the market? Once this divergence is resolved, maybe we will see a stronger move higher across all major indices?

    I wonder could the Dow currently be making the e-wave of an Int iv triangle?

  29. fotis2 says:

    Stan911 Dollar DT about to get invalidated if it breaks thru here it validates IHS I would wait for a HWB 200ma to go long I remember Crude IHS a couple years back and thinking man will it play out?
    https://invst.ly/7z-y0

  30. vivelaamo says:

    Let’s be honest we could hit 3k or crash to 2k and people on here will still hate Trump. Market will do what it’s going to do regardless of Trump. There must be an endless amount of blogs to discuss Trump to your hearts content. Why do some people insist it must be here even when told over and over it’s not welcome.

    It’s a bull market. Technicals suggest more upside. Enjoy it.

  31. fxaprendiz says:

    Ok, so the false breakout starts. 2802 taken out, 2804 high so far, kind of anticlimatic but there’s still the US session to come.
    SPX can reverse at any point from here up to 2835ish, if it’s going to respect 2 Fibonacci levels in chart below. I think SPX will try to fill the overnight gap from February 2nd, which was what started all this debacle then consolidation. It tried on March 13th but it failed.
    People will say there’s no more bearish counts, as the triangle everyone was talking about has been just invalidated. Well, I never bought the triangle idea in the first place. For weeks now I have been saying this is a double-three, which is not bounded by the triangle limits. As long as we stay below the 2876 high, we are still within the intervening wave x of the double-three.

  32. Next and nazdaq in a world all by themselves

  33. Theodore Lerts says:

    If you’ve stayed away from metals, I’d advise to continue to do so. There are good trading opportunities in SPY and IWM.

    • stockop says:

      imo metals are in the accumulation phase. can’t advise to add over the high flying tech tho. don’t shun em too much. idk if its just gonna be a C pop or the beginning of a 3, but the risk/reward is tremendous

    • phil1247 says:

      but but Theo ………………..

      re: GOLD

      our numbers expert has been touting UGLD all the way down
      from the peak …
      i have been adding UGLD on every dip but my losses keep growing

      should i sell all my UGLD now and take massive losses
      or double down now ?
      she is still recommending that i buy more UGLD
      please advise ….

      • Ashley says:

        Margin calls and global market melt downs, collateral and credit crisis, possible dollar spike ect. aren’t gonna be good for gold as it gets sold off in the first big leg leg down from here… Haven’t done any charts for gold but in the lower $1000’s and even below $900 seems possible…. And Im gonna get screwed pretty hard there too…

  34. jobjas says:

    Is it a 3 wave or a 5 wave
    Squiggle count (expecting a drop sub 2700)

    • schizo1688 says:

      From your 2nd chart (6/27-7/7) is that a bull’s nest ? need 5 waves afterward ? i am bad at reading charts, can someone help me here ? thanks

      • jobjas says:

        all waves since April 4 low has been abc’s

        • phil1247 says:

          if the short from high holds on my chart of es just posted
          support drops to 2681

          exactly where you have your proposed label marked d

          lets see jobjas

        • aahmichael says:

          All waves in a diagonal triangle are required to be zigzags. That’s a basic EW rule that can never be violated. Since the market has now gone higher than the 6/13 high, then it’s impossible to count the rally from 6/28 as a wave (b) of a zigzag, as there is no such thing an an irregular or expanded zigzag in EW.

          Also, diagonal triangles are motive waves. As such, the correct way to label them are (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), not a-b-c-d-e.

          There are now 7 waves up from the 4/2 low. That’s a corrective move that can be counted as a double or triple combination.

  35. phil1247 says:

    es

    if the boys are up to their usual tricks they will park it at the 2810 target overnite

    is so we are going to have a nice gap up tomorrow

    see you at 2810 in am

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Phil,who are these “boys” that you speak of?Why do they perform tricks on the overnight es?What’s their purpose in doing these tricks?Should they be investigated?Are they with PPT?Are YOU with PPT?Lol.

      • He Is just a stable genius.

        • fenster6 says:

          Is there one member of this administration that isn’t as crooked as a fork. Under Obama we 8 years of honesty, respect and integrity. Now it is a den of thieves

          • Obviously no one on this blog has ready your post yet. They will soon enough and come out swinging like the congressional hearings today. gets the base riled up and keeps them in line. Has anyone besides me noticed the speed at which Trump is trying to introduce chaos. adding 200 million to China tariffs, threatened to leave NATO, blamed Germany for getting close to Putin, told May that a soft Brexit deal will throw any trade agreement with US out the window. Perhaps Putin will be placated with his attempt to undermine NATO and the EU when they meet. if not, the tapes?

            I do still think at some point Trump will cause the markets world wide more than a hiccup. Mueller has till September deadline to produce his report, if not sooner. Strange behavior by Rosenstein to have dozens of DOJ agents look into the Supreme Court nominees record. This was done on his own initiative and will surely slow down the process of appointment. Now we have honest Wilbur selling all his holdings? Mr. inside man?

            I can smell it all coming together and soon. The EW technical patterns has squeezed any major reversal in this market into a very tight corner. that means it either happens very soon or possibly not at all. Accelerated selling of stocks by Ross, Trump accelerating his chaos and desire to break the EU & NATO and pushing to the limit China tariffs seems to all be coming together. Perhaps its all in my imagination but…..

          • purplember says:

            Obama honest. WTF Fen, are you fricken insane ? seriously. wake up! Obama ran the most corrupt admin. Obama used FBI & DOJ to target trump.

            IRS targeting conservatives, benghazi, hillary email. FBI left hillary off hook after it was changed from gross negligence (felony) to poor judgement. DOJ meeting bill clinton on tarmack while hillary was under investigation.

            wow what a foolish statement.

      • phil1247 says:

        purpose of tricks ?
        to take as much money from both bulls and bears as possible
        you are a casino patron
        the house almost always wins
        i try to think like them

  36. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/just-try-stock-market-2018-192800808.html?guccounter=1
    ” …correlation between S&P 500 closing prices in 2018 and that of previous years is dramatically lower than usual, making this a period “so unique that it has no historical precedent.”

    I agree! that’s why anyone that suggests the EW charts were any less confusing is not telling the truth. this is the toughest year yet. From unprecedented tax cuts to trade wars.

    Day 11 of rebound is tomorrow. it might just be the magic number for the next 2 week moves. Or not! Some look to 2802 as the last possible claim to holding the triangle. I look to completion of this wave at 2820-30. What a year to try to figure out the machinations.

    • Pretzel logic has a 2B as high as 2830. Anything over 2830 ever and we are going to 3100 no question about it to me. So I can see us going to 2808 then as high as 2830. Then at a minumum 40-50 point pull back to determine bull or bear.
      Is what it is, hopefully we can all be on the right side

      • Yes I followed Pretzels but remain skeptical simply because thru the whole year he himself preferred always the more bearish view. I agree that any steep retrace should hold below 2830. At least there is a target to shoot for.

  37. 123 abc says:

    Still bounded by 2802 and so the Triangle lives another day. Suppose a short with a stop at 2802 offers good risk/reward…

  38. Page says:

    Finally it will close above 2800 TODAY.

Comments are closed.