SHORT TERM: national holiday in US
For the first three days of this week we have seen the Asian markets decline, and European markets slip lower as well. US markets opened Monday with a gap down, hit SPX 2699 soon after the open, rallied to 2737 after a gap up on Tuesday, then sold off to 2713 by the close. Economic reports for the week, so far, are all higher: ISM, construction spending, auto sales, and factory orders. FOMC minutes on Thursday, then Payrolls on Friday.
The selloff on Monday took the SPX down to the 2690’s area for the third time in the past two weeks. Each time it has held and the market has rallied. But the rallies have been reaching lower highs: 2746, 2743, 2737. Next support area looks like the low 2680’s. The decline from the recent SPX 2791 high looks corrective. Quite normal for corrections in bull markets. The major indices are getting quite close to confirming downtrends. For the SPX, this would support the Int. iv triangle scenario. Will post an update, if/when the downtrend confirmation occurs. Enjoy your holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway
LONG TERM: uptrend