Fourth of July update

SHORT TERM: national holiday in US

For the first three days of this week we have seen the Asian markets decline, and European markets slip lower as well. US markets opened Monday with a gap down, hit SPX 2699 soon after the open, rallied to 2737 after a gap up on Tuesday, then sold off to 2713 by the close. Economic reports for the week, so far, are all higher: ISM, construction spending, auto sales, and factory orders. FOMC minutes on Thursday, then Payrolls on Friday.

The selloff on Monday took the SPX down to the 2690’s area for the third time in the past two weeks. Each time it has held and the market has rallied. But the rallies have been reaching lower highs: 2746, 2743, 2737. Next support area looks like the low 2680’s. The decline from the recent SPX 2791 high looks corrective. Quite normal for corrections in bull markets. The major indices are getting quite close to confirming downtrends. For the SPX, this would support the Int. iv triangle scenario. Will post an update, if/when the downtrend confirmation occurs. Enjoy your holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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282 Responses to Fourth of July update

  1. stormchaser80llc says:

    Check out my FREE and OPEN blog page for the latest information on market trends. Please sign up for a FREE login should you want to read daily postings that are more actionable for trading.



  2. torehund says:

    Since Tony and Armstrong is the couple I am always listening to I have to Mette their vies at times, and this is one of those instances. Concerning the Usd: Tony claims its still n a bear market which would indicate it would fully close the gap from years back, and if so do a fast 20 percent hike vs the Usd. In that scenario one would think the real estate bubble would popp in Europe justifying rampant deflation. Another concurrent reason is the fleeing of foreign currencies which for Europes case would demand a significant rate hike in an effort to keep banks from going insolvent. A rate hike in Europe would justify a Euro hike all alone. If these scenarios pan out the dollar would once more be king after a monstrous hike of Spx due to dollar waknes. At his time fleeing Europe altogther stems declne n the US stockmarket AS there is nowhere else to go. Les see what happens💰💰💰


  3. jobjas says:

    SPX – squiggle count so far from 2700


  4. rd3777 says:

    Sunday night should be down hard,into next week wave 3 down.


    • jobjas says:

      wave count apart ,in this frame which looks more impulsive – downtrend or the uptrend so far ?


    • Firing of Rosenstein next week will allow the market to really take off. No Russian thing hanging over this administration. Current market position as rational as the stock market was August 9th, 2007. It took a full year for the market to realize it’s mistake. We are at the stage where we are commenting on trumps attire but averting our eyes at the naked truth. Current administration path calls for a drop of such magnitude that it will soon become impossible for this to be just corrective. Like the 2008 fall from the mortgage debacle rational analysis was clouded by emotional cover. So few saw it coming yet so many should have.

      All we need is for trump to start learning to play the fiddle. Insane times.


    • torehund says:

      If you have seen many many charts your gut tells you a severe decline isnt likely.


    • E says:

      I see a similar count. Do you think it’s possible iv was a triangle that just broke up though? It would still result in a break down early next week for wave v. However the implication is it would be followed by yet another large ABC correction prior to wave 3 down.


  5. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and gang. P-3 power ahead, think biotech will do most of the work near term plus shipping. Oil too working on the w-3 from bottom. Where did the peak oilers go, its prime time 😆🔚


  6. travis01 says:

    Whatcha thinking Doc Phil? Hold weekend or regroup? Nothing looks great


  7. Low volume holiday melt up only to sesame lower next week or correction over


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