Fourth of July update

SHORT TERM: national holiday in US

For the first three days of this week we have seen the Asian markets decline, and European markets slip lower as well. US markets opened Monday with a gap down, hit SPX 2699 soon after the open, rallied to 2737 after a gap up on Tuesday, then sold off to 2713 by the close. Economic reports for the week, so far, are all higher: ISM, construction spending, auto sales, and factory orders. FOMC minutes on Thursday, then Payrolls on Friday.

The selloff on Monday took the SPX down to the 2690’s area for the third time in the past two weeks. Each time it has held and the market has rallied. But the rallies have been reaching lower highs: 2746, 2743, 2737. Next support area looks like the low 2680’s. The decline from the recent SPX 2791 high looks corrective. Quite normal for corrections in bull markets. The major indices are getting quite close to confirming downtrends. For the SPX, this would support the Int. iv triangle scenario. Will post an update, if/when the downtrend confirmation occurs. Enjoy your holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probably underway

LONG TERM: uptrend


About tony caldaro

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282 Responses to Fourth of July update

  1. stormchaser80llc says:

    Check out my FREE and OPEN blog page for the latest information on market trends. Please sign up for a FREE login should you want to read daily postings that are more actionable for trading.


  2. torehund says:

    Since Tony and Armstrong is the couple I am always listening to I have to Mette their vies at times, and this is one of those instances. Concerning the Usd: Tony claims its still n a bear market which would indicate it would fully close the gap from years back, and if so do a fast 20 percent hike vs the Usd. In that scenario one would think the real estate bubble would popp in Europe justifying rampant deflation. Another concurrent reason is the fleeing of foreign currencies which for Europes case would demand a significant rate hike in an effort to keep banks from going insolvent. A rate hike in Europe would justify a Euro hike all alone. If these scenarios pan out the dollar would once more be king after a monstrous hike of Spx due to dollar waknes. At his time fleeing Europe altogther stems declne n the US stockmarket AS there is nowhere else to go. Les see what happens💰💰💰

  3. jobjas says:

    SPX – squiggle count so far from 2700

  4. rd3777 says:

    Sunday night should be down hard,into next week wave 3 down.

    • jobjas says:

      wave count apart ,in this frame which looks more impulsive – downtrend or the uptrend so far ?

    • Firing of Rosenstein next week will allow the market to really take off. No Russian thing hanging over this administration. Current market position as rational as the stock market was August 9th, 2007. It took a full year for the market to realize it’s mistake. We are at the stage where we are commenting on trumps attire but averting our eyes at the naked truth. Current administration path calls for a drop of such magnitude that it will soon become impossible for this to be just corrective. Like the 2008 fall from the mortgage debacle rational analysis was clouded by emotional cover. So few saw it coming yet so many should have.

      All we need is for trump to start learning to play the fiddle. Insane times.

    • torehund says:

      If you have seen many many charts your gut tells you a severe decline isnt likely.

    • E says:

      I see a similar count. Do you think it’s possible iv was a triangle that just broke up though? It would still result in a break down early next week for wave v. However the implication is it would be followed by yet another large ABC correction prior to wave 3 down.

  5. torehund says:

    Good weekend Tony and gang. P-3 power ahead, think biotech will do most of the work near term plus shipping. Oil too working on the w-3 from bottom. Where did the peak oilers go, its prime time 😆🔚

  6. travis01 says:

    Whatcha thinking Doc Phil? Hold weekend or regroup? Nothing looks great

  7. Low volume holiday melt up only to sesame lower next week or correction over

  8. E says:

    By the looks of it, today was a wave 3 and there will be some more rally early next week before the direction changes.

  9. Market was a lot stronger than I would have thought possible.
    I (like many others) was looking for a close of the June 22 gap.
    and then fall.
    Got a lot more than than today.
    I’m now long some …

    I think the market is working off the recent news with the NK, not tariffs.
    Tariffs mean little to nothing.
    For those of who are too young …
    We had nuke stalemates in the ’60
    Markets went nowhere.
    From ’66 to 1984, the range was “in a box”
    600 – 1000
    Then Reagan showed up.
    $DJIA was ~ 3,000 in 1988.
    Just saying, even thinking about NUKES is bad for stocksl

  10. fionamargaret says:

    Have a great weekend everyone. Well done Bulls.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Here is Nate’s chart of tonight titled “Retaking Lost Ground”…the Bulls are in a Bad Position….
      Now I leave this with Tony and any others, who would like to position these two statements with his chart….x

      • fionamargaret says:

        I made a few observations during the day…
        1 TMF( or TLT) broke out…TMF to 24.
        I did not try and rationalize this, except a flight to safety, but I received a message tonight that that was where the largest pension plans were parking funds…something to do with neutral positioning after lessons learned from the recession. I have asked for a text copy.
        2 TVIX now has a lower buy at price…down to about 40…which means the market will go up some more to find equilibrium with the VIX/SPX ratio.
        3 GE was downgraded to 11….my numbers say 4.

        • fionamargaret says:

          As for Yeats poem…my grandfather used to recite it to me, and I could always see the water lapping at the shore.
          Of course now I know Yeats was contemplating nature in its affinity to life and death, transience and permanence.
          I am not a great fan of Hopkins in this recitation…we have had so many other great actors, who pull you right into their world….where diction, breathing, and colour of tone were paramount.
          And yes, there are still the same problems with King Lear….I’ll die trying wasn’t meant to have shades of truism…x

  11. rd3777 says:

    Put a fork in this Bull. A triple 3 wave 2 is about done. The NDX is finished….a wave 3 down in the Dow is around the corner to new lows.

  12. alexh110 says:

    Out of all SPX longs now. Rally looks like it may be spent.
    Or possibly one leg higher next week, following a dip?

  13. here comes the panic buying into the close

  14. lunker1 says:

    +D at 2692 missing on Tony’s 60 min chart with a nice rounded “U” RSI signature. The Lower highs and lower lows has turned to higher highs and lows.

  15. phil1247 says:


    2768.5 es target is a good place to exit longs ….
    if there is a buying panic
    2775 could be seen
    i am done for the day

    good luck

  16. From June 25th this markets has been a yo yo up and down 40ish point. sure looks like a bullish break out, but i have no count on this mess
    this last 2 day rally has to have scared off alot of bears. Whats the bearish alt?

  17. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  18. Naz ia about to hit plus 100 should pull back from there a little

  19. alexh110 says:

    Closed two thirds of my longs at 2761 due to extreme overbought condition.
    Will buy back if the price drops to 2745.

  20. fxaprendiz says:

    There’s a good probability now (seeing the steep trajectory of last 2 days) of SPX not stopping in the 2760-70 area but going as far as 2780ish next week.
    If that happens and SPX reverses right there we’ll have a bearish Harmonic Bat formed which starting point is the 6/13 high.

  21. fotis2 says:

    One Massive Bear trap playing out next week short the pants off it. I see the majority falling for it again and you need some help.

  22. Page says:

    Buy Buy Buy …. SPX 3000 is within reach, don’t miss it.

  23. fxaprendiz says:

    This is only a wave b or 2 within a bigger bearish structure. I mentioned in my previous posts SPX would bounce back to 2760-70 area and we are already in it.
    I’ll be looking to reshort next week as it may take SPX a few more days to resume the downtrend.

  24. NEWBIE says:

    2767 today crash monday

  25. phil1247 says:


    superbull above 2753 es
    protect long profits at that level

    see ya!

  26. up 54 points in 2 days. Love those short squeezes. Impressive.
    Bear case is slipping away quickly. Always tough to be short this market. .

  27. jobjas says:

    Hindsight is always 20/20.Challenge remains to track market moves in real time

  28. Throw in the white flag! Obvious that money is flowing from Asia and around the world trying to catch the best profit potential. this means we are not in a “normal” 6 month corrective mode but rather a long drawn out final move. For me it indicates we are in wave 5 and in the last 3 to 6 months of it’s run. Seems only results from earnings will knock this market down. Full blown trade war has started for China. That is not in dispute. I guess when the EU, Canada, Mexico join the party the only result would be a slow sideways to downward move until quarterly reports slam the market. Since we are just reporting current quarterly numbers I suspect we have another 3 months at a minimum for the train wreck to start.

    Is there inflow and outflow data that support overseas investing at a greater clip than normal? I strongly suspect that’s what is happening. When the market realizes we are no longer a safe haven it will get ugly fast. Till then enjoy the show!

      • It took you a whole 4 minutes to respond. getting slow. mark this down. This Trade War is like no other and all the others resulted in a bad stock market. How bad will this one get? Assuming we attack all our allies and China it will be the worse in history.

        As I waited for the long talked about crash in late 2015 to finally reveal itself. This one will do so in the same manner. There is no way you can sustain a bull trend in trade war disputes. Please explain where the profits will be? I await your response. Clearly we need profits to drive the market higher? Inflation will spike. The most destructive move anyone can make to destroy an economy is this one. Genius move only a man like Putin can think of.

    • fenster6 says:

      I am not short but looking to short and buy TVIX at the right moment which is still a moving target.

      For today it really does seem like the forces of evil have won the day…the adulterous, divisive, tax evading, draft dodging, narcisstic, bully forces.

      Satan must have his finger on the buy button…

    • phil1247 says:

      i am sure you will be saying the same thing at DOW 50 thousand
      something like this……

      ” LOGIC dictates that it must crash and
      CANNOT go to 100 thousand ”

      maybe i need more capital letters ?

    • E says:

      Don’t give up yet. This could be yet another false low volume breakout; or even the final one before all hell breaks loose.

      • Ashley says:

        2nd mouse gets the cheese =) short at 2760, target 2680 again LOL GL

      • tommyboys says:

        Advancers more than 3/1 over decliners – not a “false” move. I’ll add the poor dark lost lib souls above casting stones at our president will hopefully someday see the light. Nothing like completely missing the forest for the trees. Study the battle of Gettysburg and try to understand what the Union was fighting for. Market obviously sensing a huge and costly “trade war”…

        • Ashley says:

          Hi Tommy, Trump is WAY too “liberal” for me in case you were confused .) An epic ongoing short squeeze would result in what you see, makes complete sense to me but I don’t see it as bullish…..

  29. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Head scratcher of the day:Dollar down half a percent,euro surges and gold doesn’t move.It’s broken the bearish stochastic,so first stop is 1270.Should be.GDX,I understand, it’s near the upper bb,but gold itself should be up $10-15.Never easy.

    • fenster6 says:

      TLT is the head scratcher

      Jobs number good.
      Inflation will come with tariffs and yet TLT up.

      I am going short a little here via PUTs

      • fionamargaret says:

        TLT is going quite a bit higher…surprisingly higher…perhaps “safety of treasuries”..
        TVIX has now a buy price of 40….so market going much higher, crazy complacency, or combination of factors…it is what it is…
        GE was downgraded to 11…I have it at 4 and numbers are unbiased…

  30. gary61b says:

    10 cst almost reversal time… I have a magnet at 2742.25. and that would be close to a setup long from this high .

  31. phil1247 says:


    just scrolled back and saw your question about higher targets

    unfortunately targets are at es 2754.5 then 2758

    not enough to get us high enough to break the short
    i mentioned this previously that the boys would push it up
    just shy of 2759.75 to frustrate both bulls and bears
    looks like thats what they have planned for the weekend

    see ya next week !

    • Ashley says:

      If it’s the wave V ED with wave IV at 2532 we have completed wave 4 with overlap, all 3’s and we are in 5 up to new ATH’s at least on the RUT and NDX, DOW and SPX get a failed 5th wave to kick off the next bear of whatever degree….

    • scottycj1 says:

      Thanks Phil….looking to exit at the close….might be a strong short covering rally this afternoon. Moving up thru SPX 2745 would make me cover….

      • scottycj1 says:

        Crossing up thru the .618 level could light the fire—2754

      • phil1247 says:

        of course

        if the short can be broken above at 2760 es

        the target becomes 2857
        ie test of all time high

        hey… how about that ” VIX signal”
        the one that is bullish for stocks
        no matter what you call it? LOL

        • Ashley says:

          Shorts are tapped and blown out here pretty much, no shorts, no bid IMHO, short here with a stop at 2762ish looks OK to me…

  32. 2760 Close. Good job bulls. Free money friday

  33. phil1247 says:

    ext short broken
    off to the races now

    KING dollar ………. not !

  34. phil1247 says:


    ext long failed and working on failed breakout

    got SCO?

  35. chrisk44342 says:

    Bull flag on GC

  36. gary61b says:

    ES chart, magnet at 2731 and 2712.5. this move down completed its target. maybe another leg down after a push up to 2736… Fridays are half position days….

  37. kingfrogcash says:

    Last nights fire works was a dud. -4.75 before jobs. Is that all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Disastrous or Divine…a really different interpretation of Sibelius’s 2.
      It reminded me of Celibidache’s interpretations, where every note is looked at from every angle, turned over, and reflected upon.

  38. Page says:

    Trump says $34 billion tonight then $516 billion tariff after that. So what this means is I am raising TVIX target to $400. Thanks Trump.

    • schizo1688 says:

      Trump should just tweet couple times a day,so tvix can move up few cents LOL

      • Page says:

        Now that Payrolls numbers are out of the way, the markets will now concentrate on Tariffs. The markets will pop little then sell off kicks in, so it will close red.

  39. Hi,Thanks Tony
    seems to be in a triangle,waiting to see for which side it will be broken
    Shanghai at important support

  40. learnedmylesson25 says:

    The way this market can turn supposedly bearish news,bullish–if 2008 occurred again,we’d go sideways for a few months and then make new highs.For whatever reason,it’s immune to any real selling (there,that ought to do it,lol).

  41. tommyboys says:

    A/D new ATH daily and weekly. Bullish forward and no major calamity anytime soon. Maybe “trade wars” becoming zero tariffs?

    • mjtplayer says:

      Additional China trade tariff deadline is tomorrow, if they go through then the risk is what China annonces over the weekend

    • fenster6 says:

      zero tarrifs would be good, but the mid-west trump supporter better get used to taking the 70-100% US tarrifs on agri products and the $15 Billion a year US farmers get in direct support

      Look it up. Easy to point fingers

      • tommyboys says:

        If we’re gonna have big tariffs on imported agri products we can finally stop sibsidizing farmers for NOT farming land as there will actiually become a market for their products. The MSM will never report it because it doesn’t fit their “climate change” agenda, but we’ve been over producing agri-products for decades. We destroy virtually more feed, grain and vegetable products each year than we consume. Fed has paid farmers to not farm land cyclically for decades. I know first hand as in-laws own large farms and one large dairy operation in mid Michigan. Tariffs will save Fed non- farming payments in US and allow farmers to earn more by actually farming.

        • Lee X says:

          You married well you old son of a gun !

          • tommyboys says:

            Took a couple tries but yeah – got lucky on round two! Was up visiting last week and kinda funny. I know there aren’t many Conservatives here but man go up there and all they talk about is how much happier they are with Trumpy in charge. They joke that before the election you could drive from Port Huron across to Frankenmuth, over to Grand Rapids, up to Traverse and across to Charlevoix and into the UP and you would see nothing but Trumpy signs the whole way – not one Clinton lol. They were all really depressed a couple years ago.

  42. gary61b says:

    ES, 2713.5/2737.5 high hwb setup is in play to target 2743, 2722.50 is LIS. Could retrace to 2731/30 before next leg up long within a long, Micro long Target 2740.

  43. Page says:

    TVIX stands for ‘Trump VIX’
    Yes, Trump will drive TVIX way above 100 (may reach 140 by Sep).

  44. kvilia says:

    Closed CL shorts at target, let’s see where we go from here.

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