Weekend update

REVIEW.

The week started at SPX 2779. The market opened slightly higher Monday. Rallied to SPX 2790. Then bounced off of SPX 2789/91 for the next three days. On Friday’s option expiration, the market gapped down, hit SPX 2762, then rebounded to close unchanged for the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Economic reports for the week were mostly positive. On the downtick: industrial production, plus the budget deficit expanded. On the uptick: the CPI, the PPI, the NY FED, retail  sales, import/export prices, business inventories, consumer sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Philly FED, leading indicators, and housing.

LONG TERM: uptrend

We have been hearing some reports this week that the FED is behind the yield curve, and rates should be at least another 1.5% higher at this time. We disagree. In fact according to the indicator we track for future FED funds, the FED is exactly where the market wants it to be at this stage of the economic expansion. In early 2011 we published the following report on short term rates, and what we track to anticipate them: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/01/18/interest-rates-the-economy-and-the-1yr-t-bill/. Using the 50 basis point rule the current 1YR chart suggests the FED is right where is should be: 1.75% to 2.00%.

The weekly chart displays the SPX price action since the great recession low in 2009. The market advanced for 6 years, to 2015, to complete Primary I of a Cycle wave bull market. Primary II ended in early 2016 at SPX 1810. Since then the market has been rising in a Major wave 1, of Primary III, bull market. When Major 1 concludes, and it looks like we’re already in Int. wave v, a Major wave 2 bear market should follow. Our mid-2016 projection for this bull market remains SPX 3000+ by the 2018+.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

From late-January to early-April the SPX corrected in an Intermediate wave iv flat. This flat alternates with the Q2-2016 Intermediate wave ii irregular zigzag. In fact, even the Minor waves 2 and 4, of Int. wave iii, display alternation. From that early-April low the uptrend has been unfolding in what appears to be a nesting of 1-2’s.

We have labeled SPX 2717 in mid-April Minor 1, and SPX 2595 in early-May Minor 2. Then SPX 2742 as Minute i, and SPX 2677 as Minute ii in mid-May. This count suggests Minute iii has been underway since then. Over the past three weeks the SPX has risen an unimpressive, for a third wave, 100+ points. The market is still looking for a catalyst.

SHORT TERM

A quiet week as the SPX could not make much upside progress after hitting the OEW 2798 pivot range. In fact, on options expiration Friday the market sold off to SPX 2762 before recovering in the afternoon. The gap down opening and rebound could set things up for the SPX to start impulsing again internally. A rally to SPX 2791 again would help in that regard.

Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKET

Asian markets were mixed on the week and lost 0.7%.

European markets were mostly higher and gained 0.9%.

The DJ World index lost 0.5%, and the NYSE lost 0.8%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend and ended unchanged for the week.

Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 1.0%.

Gold also remains in a downtrend and lost 1.9% on the week.

The USD has been in an uptrend and gained 1.0% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: housing starts and building permits. Wednesday: existing home sales. Thursday: jobless claims, leading indicators and the Philly FED.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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519 Responses to Weekend update

  1. The bears can back to bed now. Such opportunities and they still lose it BIG!!! Look at those QQQ. Can’t even drop > $2.

    • Page says:

      Dumps occur last 15-30 minutes of close, margin calls today and tomorrow will accelerate selling. From now on until election all rallies will be sold.

  2. phil1247 says:

    es 2763 hit !

    battleground victory or not ?

  3. Lee X says:

    DITD alert in grains

  4. jobjas says:

    CL b wave complete ; c to 67.5

  5. stan911 says:

    Gap left at 2779-2781-2783

  6. scottycj1 says:

    hhhmmmmm bounced right off 2743

    • phil1247 says:

      es still in battle zone
      above 2763 opens door
      to full retracement to recent high

      • Ashley says:

        Short at 2754, stop 2764 target 2680

        • gary61b says:

          ES 2735 was hwb from 2675 /2796 with a Target of 2825 or 2765 pb to 2700-2690 for the ED or blow out down to 2448. Its perfectly clear if a long term investor or take every trade intra day as they come.

      • phil, re: /ES 2763….could happen….. as /VX broke a micro LONG and will go all the way down to 13.52 ../VX hasn’t tested that level..a new lower low… which means /ES should rally and test a “higher” 50% SHORT at /ES 2765.88….8 ticks above your 2763.

        OH I forgot…KISS..phil’s “breaking 2763……” has a high probability of occurring because of the /VX decline to test 13.52.

  7. fenster6 says:

    what do you all think, is this still in keeping with a 3rd wave , or do we need a new count?

  8. fionamargaret says:

    The numbers are the same as yesterday….seems forever…using Tony’s fibs…
    2767, 2750, 2736, 2723, 2714….then 2656, 2632, 2594
    Short oil to 59/60…DWT…a tad lower and free fall…and we get there pretty quickly….
    Long bond TLT or TMF
    VXX and UVXY….xxx

  9. alexh110 says:

    I see a possible LDT off the pre-market low, followed by a 50% retrace.

  10. fotis2 says:

    Hope you guys aren’t long 2520s coming.

  11. pooch77 says:

    Bios is where you should be

  12. learnedmylesson25 says:

    I’m not a believer in this selloff yet.Nasdaq still embedded,so is IWM,S&P not anymore,but a 25 pt rally would do the trick to re-embed.Dollar up,gold down–just the opposite of 2003 tariff war.Re-evaluate later.GL all.

  13. phil1247 says:

    NQ

    above 7236 look for full retracement again to all time highs

  14. schizo1688 says:

    Snp goona close at 2743 today…. i just asked my crystal ball

  15. mcgcapital says:

    Lower highs and lows across the board here plus some stuff breaking important supports. Got to be mad looking for longs today, I’ll stick my neck out and say this gap will be a gap and go and won’t close

    • alexh110 says:

      I went long just above the 2731 pivot, with stops just below: so only risking a handful of points (with a potential upside of 400+).
      Technical set up and Fibs fit quite well with a micro 2 low.

      • mcgcapital says:

        It’s all about set ups.. decent risk reward first thing this morning buying with a stop below the 2731 pivot, but as anonymous says below, yesterday’s low at 2757 resistance so wouldn’t have wanted to buy that just before US open. As for the next 400 points, really not sure about that lol. But also not sure it goes back to the lows, got no strong view on longer term direction, just know it’s making lower highs and lows on the timeframes that interest me since last weds

    • Anonymous says:

      SPX resistance is at 2757, temporary support 2740, TZA calls still quite cheap as the sector performance has not changed yet, but it is beginning to do so. Defensive sectors improving (Utilities and Consumer Staples) should do it. Key level to the downside for IWM is 165.23.

  16. emuntrader says:

    Thoughts. Lots of levels. low 2730’s has a H&S projection. other projetions are 2755, 2745, 2734,
    2724. Not sure what to make of this structure quite yet. But buying the dips and selling the rips seems to be the name of the game. larger picture I am looking at a couple of different possibilities. so it’s unclear for me at the moment.

  17. phil1247 says:

    hi asa

    es traded very technically overnite to the 2735 level i mentioned at 10 pm and bounced
    but the 15 min ext short has broken so we are left with the next traditional in the series
    down which has ……………
    bear below 2763 target 2725

    small series up from low has support at 2742.5
    so now we will see who wins !

  18. Mary773 says:

    Five hour ES hammering off the May highs:

  19. Lee X says:

    Ahhhhh the internet

  20. Page says:

    The only safe haven you have is cash under the mattress. The market is already negative for the year so what you have gained if you were long so far zip, nada, nothing and the rest of the year is not going to get any better unless you are a day trader using extension longs and extension shorts.

  21. Last post, hit my limit….just notice that /VX traded to it’s 50% measured move SHORT (yellow line) at the same time /ES tested it’s 50% measured move LONG. Doesn’t change the bearish trend but it could simply be that Asia/Europe/US wanted their fill at a safer entry level into a long
    at the /ES 50% LONG …the overnight low.

    Bottom line…I am watching to see how the market reacts to this counter trend rally to both the /ES and /VX bull/bear set ups.

  22. Watching the counter trend rally carefully. Bottom line the trend is now bearish until /ES 2772 (which is the 61.8% SHORT) breaks. If the first 50% SHORT (yellow line) is defended I am going to sell into the rally.

  23. floyd drummer says:

    phil,

    …as always, …thx for your comments

    i’m not as confident with extensions as with traditionals. ….extension anchor selection seems to be a bit of an art.
    was there a tradtional from ES 96 to yesterday’s low 61.25, …and then once the target was met overnight, … an extension from that 61.25 to the overnight low of 35.75?

    also, …do you notice that 61.2 and HWB tend to echo through the various micro- long and shorts in the chop, …trading range.
    i had a long target match with a short HWB. …i see this often. might this confirm that the anchors are “correct”?

  24. mcgcapital says:

    Just added some FTSE shorts at 7600.. break of support and backtest as resistance. The difference for me today vs the last two gap downs is that this one has broken support. Expect the market to head lower now not withstanding some back and fill today

  25. alexh110 says:

    Added a small long at 2735.3 on a 5 minute +D.

  26. vivelaamo says:

    At least 2741 has held for now.

  27. alexh110 says:

    Stopped out again overnight: not having much luck lately!

  28. schizo1688 says:

    Tomorrow Dow-350 … Dooooooommm.. anyone who catches knife will get their head cut off !

    • Anne Day says:

      That would be lovely.

      One could short both UDOW *and* SDOW and then *sell* some puts on UDOW. Very low risk and high chance of making a decent profit.

  29. jobjas says:

    SPX heading to a significant top

    • Anne Day says:

      Second. It is a BUY time.

      I will get up at 4am tomorrow to buy 🙂 Hopefully that the drop will have not fully recovered by then.

    • Ashley says:

      You could also have a contracting ED for wave 5 with a ramp job tomorrow morning at TL support and a high up to the gap above and the 2835 pivot… Just call wave 4 a zigzag to 2532, wave 1 at 2802, wave 2 at 2553 and we are currently in this choppy wave 3 that could still count as abc… Then a trip to your lower T/L and then 5 up abc back to the upper T/L and a double top with a likely failed 5th wave on the DOW and a marginal new high on SPX…. Thats the count Im trading unless it just crashes from here, the key to the count is they have to overlap and all be 3’s….

      • jobjas says:

        on the contrary ,
        looks more like developing into an expanding diagonal , prices going much higher , chart later

        • Ashley says:

          Im not saying they aren’t but if they don’t go as high as you expect it’s another option, really the only difference between your chart and mine is a lower expected high…. I expect this leg to stop in the same spot but it will have to overlap 2717 on the decline (probably about 2710 ish)…. With a triangle the decline will have to be fast to get there and hold the TL then it can take all the time it wants to get to the final high at the upper T/L but I think we end up lower and I think it takes longer as the last wave up grinds out….

          • jobjas says:

            let the waves play out – one at a time.
            A long uptrend collapses either from a parabolic price move OR is preceded by high volatility ( ? ending diagonals )

  30. stcoleridge says:

    Subdividing minute iii of minor 3 anyone? With micro1 at 2791 and now in micro 2.

  31. Thanks Tony
    Dow
    ~24,9k was the point where lower trendline of triangle has been broken
    “possible” wedge formed from bottom
    https://invst.ly/7rxic

  32. Good evening traders. I am still going with Tony C. and abc’s EW analysis. So far, the waterfall decline didn’t done any technical damage…./ES essentially traded to the 50% LONG at 2762.50 where it found support and is still defending that level. This is the 3 time it is defending this level,,,last week, this morning and again tonight., I hope this is nothing more than Asis/Europe/U.S. wanting to get their fill at the 50% measured move LONG at /ES 2762.63…..as the FOMC and futures expiration may have influenced traders positions.

    However, should /ES break 2754.75, which is the 61.8% measured move LONG, I have to reconsider their analysis. A break of /ES 2754.75, opens the door to lower targets. I have built up long positions over the past few weeks and did very little day trading recently.. A break of /ES 2754.75 and I will go into cash and wait for the market to settle down, certainly wait until the tariff issue with China is resolved.

    https://gyazo.com/92c10d3201a7cfeb7fe9b60c47ce3650
    Full disclosure …DH chart

    • Ashley says:

      Thanks cash or futures and if we take out 2754 overnight does that matter even if never sees that tomorrow and rallies for instance???

      • Ashley says:

        2750 cash looks like trend line support, DOW is right there as well for now but I think we are going right to the open gap at 2740 to start…

    • phil1247 says:

      hi asa …

      ext long failed esu8
      potential support drops to 2737 and 2723

      first short complete at 2753
      bears in control below 2770

      • Hi phil

        yep. See what the futures look like in the AM. If there is a 50% SHORT that develops I will get out of my longs relatively unscathed..still take a small hit. Very low probability that the break will be ignored by the algorithm…but might be wishful thinking on my part.

        Ashley, There has been a trend change from bullish to bearish with the break. /ES needs to trade above 2770 to flip to bullish…but that level will change depending upon how much additional downside activity we have.

        • Ashley says:

          2748 cash and this lower trend line is a key level as far as Im concerned and 2740 is strong support with the 200 MA at 2738ish and though Im a bear I’ve seen this beautiful bear set up become a trap one too many times…. All it will take is a tweet from Trump or some other BS and the PPT could be activated and I think there may be enough there to get to the 2798 pivot…. About 2720 gets taken out Im thinking 2680ish really fast and below that Id say its over….

          • fionamargaret says:

            The numbers we had this morning Ashley were significant, and were based on the sequence 2767, 2750, 2736, 2723…and 2714.
            The algo became attracted to Tony’s 2767 today, so it did not follow through down to the lower numbers….going lower seems to be dominant…now to get oil to 59/60..
            Love the Winnebago..x

  33. SP futures down 15? nah, must be a typo. No problem, the market will realize the trade war thing is BS. OR, maybe they are starting to realize this administration policy means business? Bad business. Sad, so sad. How bad can things get? When Ted Cruz is pushing a law to end separation of children from mothers you know its as bad as it can get. Like everything else the GOP is only lip service for political cover because they don’t want to disappoint the base. No action will be taken period!

    All this has to do with understanding why the stock market is doomed. the push back is already by dozens of countries and it only just started. Wait till trump announces his own version of child separation relating to trade. I suspect he goes for the jugular AUTOS!

    But I go against EW wisdom once again on what I consider a major move to come. China has be extraordinarily quiet since announcing their retaliatory measures. Full out war looks like this: US goods ostracized as national pride kicks in. Business restrictions of US companies doing business in China, refuse china visa visits to USA. Nationalize companies to mitigate damages done to their workers. Set up long term trade deals with other nations.

    Everything I bring up will affect world markets. To deny protectionist and isolationist policies will doom us economically is just ignoring common sense and history.

    My ONLY question is how long this market takes to realize this?

    • chrisk44342 says:

      That’s how you bring PEOPLE to the NEGOTIATING table. CAN you HEAR me Gary?

    • TRUMP (unhinged as expected) not only wants 200 billion but will add 400 billion after that. Rational man right? Just negotiating like DACA, Illegal immigrants? I believe the market finally, finally, finally understands who Trump is and what he is capable of. ALL OUT WAR is here today! But I was told this is all predetermined by the tea leaves in the stock market. they KNEW this would happen and therefore was anticipated by EW charts.

      Trump will never back down! China is a nation that being a real dictator has an extreme advantage over us. they will use national pride and total isolation from trade to business partnerships to government subsidies to weather the storm. WE, well we do have a FIVE to ONE advantage over trade so we can kill them in that sense. BET against America winning this one. I warned all that an unhinged president that has nothing to lose will demean a nation as he goes down, just as he has done to his loyal staff. He has the INSIDE SCOOP on Mueller’s investigation. It is falling apart all around him.

    • themoose101 says:

      Gary, didn’t you read my previous comment today. Please stop writing these essays. Create your own blog and spend your time there if this is what you’d like to do. Make a quick comment that’s relevant and move on. I’m apolitical, but it’s highly irritating to have to sift through all this nonsense every day.

    • “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent!”…

    • purplember says:

      Gary, i rarely post anymore because i find your political posts annoying. you had 8 years of Obama and the pendulum swung the other way now. now live with it.

    • tommyboys says:

      Gary/Holly if you don’t like our immigration laws why don’t you migrate to Mexico? Even legally you’ll end up in prison with a burrito up your ass – and faster than you can say ‘Trump’ – ‘if’ you survive the beatings.

  34. chrisk44342 says:

    wow perfect reaction to downward sloping channel. I don’t normally even watch futures at this time of day so i was a bit late but it moved fast.

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks and love to Tony…..and everyone xx

      • Thank You! Will leave today on this calming note.

        • fionamargaret says:

          I really enjoyed your choice of Karajan for the 8.
          Try listening to this Gary….I don’t think anyone can understand the structure of Mahler and Bruckner quite like Bernard Haitink. You will love this….and I hope everyone else does too.
          Loved the men in tails too..x

          • Slower longer phrasing? Not the impact from Karajan but for Bruckner symphonies I think Haitink interprets Bruckner very well. Never heard this before. Bruckner took me a long time to appreciate. I also have Bruckner 4 by Bohm, 7 and 8 by Giulini. This Haitnik recording reminds me of Giulini in the slow but detailed interpretation.

    • Fiona:
      Thanks for the excellent Raymond James commentary. I was especially impressed that the legendary (and expensive) Lowry’s investment service was so bullish.

  35. aahmichael says:

    Don’t look now, but Trump just gave Gary a gift.

    • aahmichael says:

      $200bn in threatened Chinese tariffs.

      • SPYtrader says:

        China should be more concerned about H7N9 before it kills off their population. Tariffs will be a non issue then.

    • scottycj1 says:

      I wondered what took the wind out of the markets sails…..shit now that wind will be in Gary.

    • mcgcapital says:

      There’s only so many times it will gap down and be bought.. I don’t like cross correlating markets for obvious reasons but today European markets were on the brink until the US open. Then everything rallied together. I’d say if there’s a break lower tomorrow morning in Europe it’s more likely SPX will follow through this time. FTSE 7600 is key, under there by US open and it could giveway rather than be bought

    • His “Gift” was known by me from first day in office. Unfortunately the market couldn’t comprehend a mind like his. My livelihood death with having very good analytical skills combined with common sense. “THIS” was as expected as the sun rising. I stated this much many times but no one listened. His days going forward will become more dangerous. I couldn’t care less about a total trade war with everyone. It’s the repercussions of such behavior that leads to real war. Wars only happen when economic strife is upon nations, or when they are threatened to be invaded.

      • aahmichael says:

        You’re certainly not the only one who has always seen him as a deranged madman, however, the market only cared about tax cuts, which is why it has totally ignored everything else about him so far.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Problem is, with all of this trade wars newsflow it keeps dropping 20 points then going straight back up. We’re at 2760 now and when he was elected or inaugurated it was at 2100s and 2300s.. it’s got a long way to fall before you could say it was justified to view everything he’s done as negative for the market. As for a real war, that’s more conjecture isn’t it.. surely he’d be impeached for starting an actual war with no justification? Or maybe I have too much faith in common sense and the American political system…

        • aahmichael says:

          The only way he will ever be impeached is if the Dems win the House in November. It all comes down to that.

          • mcgcapital says:

            But surely there’s some stuff he could do that would make republicans vote for it? Like if he decided to bomb Canada for example.. But either way, as bad as some of the stuff he does is to some people, I don’t share the sentiment that he’s a complete lunatic. He just has different values to your average person, but that doesn’t include starting wars for no reason IMO

            • aahmichael says:

              The Rs have watched in complete silence as Trump has stolen 2,000 little children by ripping them out of the arms of their parents and locked them in cages, and says he’ll only release these little kids if Congress gives him money to build a wall with Mexico…which he previously promised that Mexico would pay for. If these R cowards won’t speak up as they watch Trump become the Hitler of our time, I don’t they’ll speak up no matter what else he does.

          • tommyboys says:

            Impeached? Need a crime for that. No crime. Plus need 2/3 for that. Never happen. Trump 20/20 a shoo in 👍🏼

  36. Not sure were we are. So far lower lows and lower highs. If it’s over needs to get over 2781. If going lower needs to break 2757, so at this point chop zone. 2740 would be a magnet if 2757 breaks. 2807 would be target if 2781 breaks up

    Good luck all

  37. tommyboys says:

    The real market – A/D – surprisingly positive today regardless of the indices. Internals remain strong.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Found this website quite interesting as it shows the A/D lines for quite a few different indices over the last year and is up to date:

      http://www.marketinout.com/chart/market.php?breadth=advance-decline-line

      When you look at it, it’s actually quite normal isn’t it for the A/D line to keep making new highs as it’s just the sum of advancers and decliners added to the previous day’s cumulative total. And if you look at 2018, the down days have been way bigger than the up days, so as an example, if everything fell 3% one day, and then spent the next 10 days going up 0.3% per day then the market hasn’t moved but the A/D line will be up a lot as it has 10 times as many advancers vs decliners over the period.

      Must be quite difficult to get the broader market to rise while the A/D falls over a sustained period, although I take the point around it happening quite frequently near market tops.

      I think this market is quite divided under the surface.. tech and small caps flying but not sure on everything else. That 2800 is a biggie as that’s where I think a break above would see much more participation from other sectors

      • aahmichael says:

        I’ve never paid much attention to the A/D line, but the NYMO has always been the most crucial oscillator I use, and in the last 10 years, it’s become the only oscillator I use.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Everyone quotes the A/D line though, but when you do the maths on it I just think it’s bound to go up most of the time as markets tend to go down quickly and up slowly. For the A/D line to negatively diverge you’d need the majority of stocks to be going down whilst a few generally larger ones go up. Obviously that does happen, but that’s only one type of market and I’d be surprised if it’s the only kind of environment seen at market tops. I’m just throwing ideas out there though, may or may not be true

        • Fiona:
          Thanks for the excellent Raymond James commentary. I was especially impressed that the legendary (and expensive) Lowry’s investment service was so bullish.

      • tommyboys says:

        Look at ’00-’02 & ’07-’09

  38. vivelaamo says:

    Bull flag continues to form as expected. Shaping up nicely for the next big rally.

    • E says:

      I question it. A strong bull flag require increasing volume ascending the pole.

      • tommyboys says:

        What? A bull flag will have a spike of volume and price forming the pole then the flag will form as price grinds sideways to lower on DECREASING volume over the for the next several (potentially multiple) bars.

        • E says:

          That’s what I said. There hasn’t been any increase in volume, not to mention a spike while forming the pole.

          • mcgcapital says:

            If you look on the 4 hourly it looks like a series of lower highs and lows since Fed day… above 2783ish would end that sequence, so that’s the first warning to bears to me. If I was placing a trade on SPX I’d be looking to short with a stop above the last swing high there. Above then I’d want to reassess the pattern. The last few days you’ve been able to watch the open, see the bounce and then go long with a stop below the low of the day. Trading is bloody hard if you have to know where it’s going, especially in a range, but it’s not that hard to break things down into set ups with decent risk reward if you observe how they usually move the price around.

      • Page says:

        You didn’t mention the name of pole, is it North Pole or South Pole ???

        • E says:

          My apologies. I’m routing for the South Pole where real Penguins live this year rather than hoping Santa will show up.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Starting to think there’s more chance we win the World Cup than this range breaking next few weeks

      • Adam Strehl says:

        2026 – Christian Pulisic and the boys gonna win the cup

        • mcgcapital says:

          I’m english.. so still got my fingers crossed for this year but it’s a big ask for anyone outside of Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain or Germany to win it

      • stcoleridge says:

        With refs like the one today that’s even less likely than it would normally be. Utterly shocking inconsistency. And there’s me thinking VAR stoood for value at risk. 🙂

        • mcgcapital says:

          It’s ruining the games.. pretty much one penalty a game and defenders can’t have any physical contact (unless you rugby tackle someone in the 6 yard box as apparently that’s allowed…)

          • vivelaamo says:

            To be fair all the penalty’s that have been given by Var were correct decisions. It’s the blatant ones that the ref is ignoring the use of var for that is frustrating.

            I think it just goes to show how many penalties the ref miss every game.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Well it’s broke to the downside so unless the buyers come in again like the last 2 days it could get ugly.

  39. E says:

    It has returned to a state of most action taking place after hours.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      It’s the summer. You have about an hour to make something happen in the morning and that’s about it, assuming you only trade es or index etfs, etc.

  40. jobjas says:

    If one does not have a valid wave count one most likely will get whipsawed in both directions / divergences help only if one applies it to the correct degree of wave.

  41. E says:

    Capitulation time?

  42. hugh jazole says:

    Quite a downtrend in crude.

    • E says:

      High probability that crude is going straight down to $10 by end of year.

      • Ashley says:

        As an owner of a new class C Winnebago with a Ford V10 I say bring it!!! =)

      • hugh jazole says:

        And stocks will be unfazed by this?

      • kvilia says:

        Any justification for the $10 price?

        • jobjas says:

          justification : no money on the table !

        • E says:

          Boom & Bust cycle + EW. Look at this chart: http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart. There were clearly 5 waves down from the 1980 high, but so far only 3 waves down from the 2008 high. EW says there must be 5 waves down before the next cycle up. The size of the wave 1 and wave 3 drops was about $100, so given where we are now, a drop to $10 is less than half that. (Of course we could be just encountering the B corrective way now followed by some more years or rise; can never be sure). Also, in the 1980 cycle, wave 2 was a zigzag corrective wave and wave 4 was triangular. This time it seems to be the opposite, so we should see the quicker zigzag to complete waves 4 and 5 down.

          • jobjas says:

            Nice chart.
            Each of those multi year / decade cycles are abc’s last one ending at $ 25 . From there we are in another multi year / decade abc (a wave probably ending around 90 followed by a major correction for b and then ATH for c wave ending the uptrend .Notice higher lows of each bear cycle

  43. Bill Manscoe says:

    When you get an outside day down at or above 3000 on ES then run.

  44. Bill Manscoe says:

    I’ve posted before that 5th waves are hard. Rising market but negative momentum indicators, negative participation indicators, small caps taking the lead. It’s always the same.
    News sucks. It will get worse. This market will make you doubt your momma before it tops out. Damn the news we are going higher for awhile.

  45. Ashley says:

    We have 5 down (wave1) doing the ABC (wave2) maybe range bound the rest of the day capped at 2780, then gap down (wave3), gaps below at around 2740, 2715, and 2700…. My bearish bias says crash now LOL, but no trade for me here my position is 4% stocks, 50% short duration bonds, some gold/silver and the rest in cash in a money market…. Bulls are calling this wave 3 but where is the wave 3 rally right through resistance???

  46. Page says:

    Will close green.

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