Wednesday update

While the US appears to remain on cruise control we have been uncluttering the weekly charts on the chart link. Some go back to 2009 with lots and lots of historical, but currently unnecessary waves. For example the AAPL weekly chart looked like this:

now looks like this:


About tony caldaro

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439 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. fionamargaret says:

    UVXY, VXX, SDOW, SQQQ, SPXS, TZA…………yes,short the indices, long volatility…… and long soccer…
    Only short oil if it is through 66.5 to the downside…DWT…..
    Numbers suggest down….how about 2755 for a start…xxx

  2. Dollar continues to move higher as the 10 year note tries to maintain a yield under 3 percent. There is very little going forward to keep both the dollar and yields in check. Tomorrow trump announces if China will incur the tariffs. (IF) China does get slapped with tariffs their response will be swift. June 20th EU retaliates from their tariffs.

    The start of the slide should be tomorrow if trump announces tariffs. It should carry thru the 20th with EU retaliation measures. From there Trump will likely double down of the EU. He has disdain for the EU and he will let them know.

    • Expect close today around 2758. If this is the start of slide the last 2 drops occurred in a 10 day range. Coincidentally this Friday ends week 20 of correction.

    • torehund says:

      Agree on the Usd Gary, Trump loves countries that have wind in their back, and yes its Asia. They are up and coming economically, and have the hunger for bettering their living conditions. Call it materialism but thats where they are right now, Trump reflects just what they are trying to achieve. He will be idolised in Asia, the forlorn American dream. It just hopped to Asia😁

  3. stan911 says:

    Report out let’s see now

  4. dont fumble hear bulls

  5. Theodore Lerts says:

    Like I said a few days ago, a big word of warning for those attempting to short the $dollar…..

    For ES, today’s action is bullish, but still potential for that 1% – 1.5% pullback. If we clear 2800 in a strong move then it will be pretty smooth sailing to new highs.

    • stcoleridge says:

      It’s been a choppy move higher for nearly two months but now if we clear 2800 it will magically become “smooth sailing”?

  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    At the risk of ending this bullish move,I’ll point out,all these equitues continue embedded and are now in a sideways move on stochastics.Over 90 and moving laterally.The best of all embedded situations.Enjoy the ride until 80 breaks.Gold moved over 1307 and got the “bends”.Closing over 1316 would be extra bullish.GL all.

  7. phil1247 says:


    potential support at 2771 has been validated by breaking shorts
    bull above 2785

    good luck and see ya!

  8. fotis2 says:

    Gold Sell 50ma daily bearflag forming targets 1240s

  9. Short until 2791 is taken out. I will play aahmichael percentages of a big down on the way

    Good luck all

  10. phil1247 says:


    extension short about to break
    if so door is open to new highs
    covered all shorts premarket … just watching now

  11. Tony:
    Thanks a lot for cleaning up the charts. It makes them much easier to read.

  12. fred wilhelmus says:

    Thanks, Tony. SP 500, daily and hourly.

  13. alexh110 says:

    Don’t want to tempt fate, but I wonder if this morning will be another case of the SPX low occurring in the pre-market?

    • alexh110 says:

      Looks like a near perfect IHS reversal pattern in the pre-market.
      Decided to take a punt on a long.

  14. phil1247 says:

    re : bearish engulfing candlestick pattern

    both Nison and Bulkowski agree that it is the
    real body engulfing that matters

    the shadows or wicks are irrelevant

  15. phil1247 says:

    quickrick………….hi ho silver

    this anchor worked twice
    now the third entry is 16.90 SI
    target will take us well above the triangle downtrend line
    then a pullback to the line from above should occur

  16. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Chris Kimble
    Charts of the Week…..thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and love to Tony….and everyone xx

  17. stan911 says:

    Read somewhere that the inspector generals report will be announced on the 14 June… will that have any impact on the markets?

  18. Billy says:

    After an expanded b wave of 4 for the high, the afternoon decline has every look of c of 4 or more precisely c of c of 4 from the post FOMC high around 2789. Need to count 5 down from there. Same story on the DOW. Main consideration now is is the 4 done? Possibly, possibly not. Prior 4 on the SPX was down a bit at 2760. However I don’t think it will get that low if it needs to go down further as the larger 4. DOW prior 4 much closer near 24160. I think the DAX & CAC might need a higher high for this upward correction as well. Overall I don’t think there’s much gravy for the bears right now unless 2760 gets taken out and then I’ll change sides. Present preference however is for higher highs first.

  19. 123 abc says:

    Tony, thank you for the simplified chart updates. However, please keep an archive of the old charts, the detailed wave labeling is tremendous work and is vital for future reference.

  20. gary61b says:

    ES has completed first short from longs at 2778. 2754,75 is next support. DH thinks markets rhyme, as in the last futures rollover it tumbled and now this week is esm8 expiration as well.

  21. aahmichael says:

    Today’s SPX daily candle was a bearish reversal engulfing bar. It’s the 6th time this year that one of these bars has appeared. A simple strategy of selling on the close with a stop 1 tick above the HOD has worked 100% of time this year, and has led to the following declines.

    2/27 = 97 point decline in 3 days
    3/13 = 211 point decline in 13 days
    3/27 = 62 point decline in 3 days
    4/30 = 53 point decline in 3 days
    5/22 = 47 point decline in 4 days

    There have been 2 bullish reversal engulfing bars this year as well, and the same strategy led to huge rallies after those bars too.

    • cj32 says:

      VG information Thx. Bullish engulfing was it April 04 and the second one (what date?)

      • cj32 says:

        There was one more bearish on 1/31= 307 point decline in 7 days

        • aahmichael says:

          The bullish reversal engulfing bars were 4/4 and 5/4.

          1/31 was not an engulfing bar because the open was not higher than the previous day’s open, and the close was not lower than the previous day’s close. To be an engulfing bar, the body has to completely engulf the previous day’s body.

          4/24 was also a bearish engulfing bar, but it was a continuation bar, not a reversal bar.

  22. vivelaamo says:

    Expect a bull flag to form now over the next few days. Suck some shorts in before the next big move.

  23. phil1247 says:

    Hi Ho silver …………………. away !

  24. see if we can rally into the close . looking for 2810-28106 lets go bulls

  25. tommyboys says:

    Insiders continue to buy this market – bullish on their own companies.

  26. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Gold/GDX doing what it likes to do after the Fed hikes.Need follow through tomorrow to give some confidence to a possible rally,post-Fed hike.Good luck all.

    • tommyboys says:

      Count on gold and crude with most of the complex to grind lower in the coming months based on higher rates and a stronger dollar.

      • kvilia says:

        Dollar is not going anywhere. On top of that, if you are banking on higher indices due to continued economy strength, oil is going to continue uptrend.

        • tommyboys says:

          No correlation between strong economy and high oil. Oil can fall to $40 while economy roars or vice-versa. In fact it could be a precursor. Ditto for dollar although historically a stronger dollar goes along with a stronger economy.

  27. Theodore Lerts says:

    Bottom is in. Lift-off time.

  28. mcgcapital says:

    Today probably marks the top of this move.. they’re raising 4 times this year, lots of the bulls had been hoping for 3. Yields have been coming down which has facilitated this rally but they should start heading back up now.

    Probably won’t react fully today but would expect it to head down now. Still a rangebound market constrained by rising rates

    • tommyboys says:

      Rates are noise at 2%+/-, won’t affect anything imho…

      • mcgcapital says:

        I agree the current rate isn’t a problem yet but it’s the direction of travel.. historically tipping point is usually 5-6% (as you’ve said before), but this cycle I think it’s lower on the basis of how much debt’s floating around the system. Hard to know where that is. We should get a pullback from overbought here this side of 2800… if rates aren’t an issue it will be shallow then break out. If they are, then it could be much steeper. Either way, would wait for lower prices and supportive price action before going long again… JMHO

    • Might be a good call
      See some -Div on $Rut and a couple of sector ETFs

  29. phil1247 says:


    rebuy at 16.84 can take us up to downtrendline at target 17.12 SI
    did you rebuy there ?

  30. scottycj1 says:

    Nice little dip into the CIT

  31. Theodore Lerts says:

    Bottom might be in

  32. push it back up to 2787 then fail or bust thru

  33. Theodore Lerts says:

    88 violated. No swoosh. Game on.
    Buy the dip.

    • phil1247 says:

      thats not how it works
      potential support at 71 now
      not interested in buying

      • phil1247 says:

        the exit door was at spx 2787.5 as i mentioned to ashley

        now that door is slamming shut

        • Theodore Lerts says:

          I’m on the sidelines waiting for an entry point. Little bit of patience here.

        • Ashley says:

          This is not a large trade for me, there is support at 71 and 66 where I may double down IF we get there….

          • Ashley says:

            Oh and the 2780 pivot .)

          • phil1247 says:

            ashley there is only

            ” potential ” support at 71

            it has to be proven

            • Ashley says:

              True though I cut my losses =( Like I said I hate FOMC day =( The 50 MA on the 60 minute chart and trend line support line up at 2772 and not much else until 2740, maybe support at 2766 but not gonna hold it overnight…. The daily charts look bullish but Im not gonna temp fate with my terrible luck going long lately… If we’re going up to fill the gap there should be opportunity at the 2780 and 2798 pivot, futures will be interesting tonight…. I should have heeded your warning, thanks anyway…

    • stcoleridge says:

      You know they’ll be buyers at the close.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Back up the truck.

  34. kjb0 says:

    Thanks Tony………………

  35. Market once again setting itself up for a dramatic drop. the rise invariably peaks right before announced trade wars. this time we have two big dates. June 15th is when Trump decides on tariffs for China and June 20th is the timeline for EU to retaliate. Make no mistake, if trump declares war against everyone the street will no longer pretend he will somehow reverse his decision. This week ends week 20 of the correction. Everything is pointing towards the volatility to spike, huge resistance at 2820 area and a market ignoring rate hikes, rising bond yields, rising dollar, and rising world tension on trade. The idea that we can go unscathed from all this has as much chance as North Korea giving up their nukes.

    • scottycj1 says:

      All you need to make a fortune from the markets is read the news….it’s that easy folks.
      Just listen to mr split personality and Trump hater.

      • Perhaps YOU can explain the January 29th start any other way? Perhaps YOU can explain why EW charts were useless since then. It was always explaining what already happened and kept getting readjusted as the move forward didn’t conform. The fortune from EW charts is where? Please tell me where we will be in 2 weeks, 1 month, 1 year? I will WRITE IT DOWN since you have the answers.

        Just answer this question and I will move on. Does a trade war with China, EU, Mexico, Canada have any affect on the market? Answer please. I find my outrageous rants from over a year ago more relevant today but perhaps you don’t. Shame. I know from history that trade wars always, I mean always, cause economic disruptions. You can pretend the next big drop is just a coincidence but I deal in logic. Not logical the world market will ignore a full blown war. I think we are just about there. Once Trump announces autos on the tariff list I DARE you to bet the BULL. Me, I am anticipating just that. He attacked Canada while praising Russia and North Korea yet you call me illogical?

        I think you can wait it out to prove me wrong. After all the moron that thinks Canada burnt down the WH is the very same person directing our economy in a very direct way. Need I say more?

    • vivelaamo says:

      What huge resistance at 2820 area? Stick to your news as you clearly can’t read charts.


      • aahmichael says:

        SPX upper weekly BB is at 2820 and tightening.(last week it was at 2842.) So Gary is correct about the resistance at that level..

        • vivelaamo says:

          Ok fair enough. I removed BB’s from my chart. They are a distraction during wave 3s. The spx pretty much rode the upper weekly BB for the whole of 2017! So not sure ‘huge’ is the right word. Good job didn’t see it as hugh resistance week commencing 9/11/2017.

          Let’s see how strong that resistance is IF we get to 2820. It’s not something I’m concerned about.

          I like your analysis AAH. But Gary is nuts.

          • mcgcapital says:

            I’d say the dominant resistance is at 2790-2800 as there are two highs at those levels in Feb and March.. above 2800 and it has to be treated as a bullish breakout until proven otherwise. 2820 then down would be a massive fakeout of the range. Looks like it turned right at resistance anyway so have to see how deep this pullback goes… if it stops this side of 2700 then goes up through 2800 then bulls probably win. If not then we’re still holding the trading range.

            He/she/they misquoted Pretzel anyway (don’t think comprehension is their strong point as a lot of what it writes exaggerates stuff) as he said that an ending diagonal wave count would be invalidated above 2820, not that it was major resistance. He also said that it could terminate anywhere from 2750-2820. If it was an ending diagonal I wouldn’t have thought it would push right to the extreme of what’s allowed.

          • aahmichael says:

            It’s true that an uptrending market will just keep riding the upper BB higher, however, the current situation of the weekly BB is much different now than at anytime in 2017. First of all, the middle band (20wma) is heading lower. That never happened in 2017. Also, the upper band is heading lower as well, and at no time in 2017 did price hit the upper band while that band was decreasing in value.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Take ’em and bid it.

    • themoose101 says:

      Holly? Is this you?

  36. Lee X says:

    Thx Tony

  37. fionamargaret says:

    DWT….short oil to 59/60…..inventories out, but still think short…

  38. gary61b says:

    anyone think ES is in micro 3 of minute 3 of major 3. or micro 5?

  39. I was in cash, until a few weeks ago, now slightly more than 100% long.
    Breadth measures are too powerful to resist (SPXA200R)
    Many looking for stall or topping at spx 2800.
    I don’t think so .

    The new wild card is the Trump deal with NK.
    A political hot potato with many here, regarding stock valuations.
    Just as Trump election (Nov ’16) was a turbo rocket for the indices for 14 months,
    I think the NK deal will be somewhat similar, but slower off the launch pad.

    Imagine all the people living life in peace
    John Lennon
    Powerful sentiments.

    Sorry in advance for any who find this comment viscerally offensive.

    • vivelaamo says:

      Agree with 2800 not holding but I don’t think NK will have anything to do with. The stock market doesn’t care about NK.

      • Very respectfully, not agree.
        Money to plant and equipment has a huge multiplier (money velocity)
        Money to bullets has zero multiplier.

        • mcgcapital says:

          I think he means as things stand.. like the market is currently pricing nothing happening with NK, so if nothing happens with NK it has no effect on expectations and therefore price.

          Clearly if something bad happens and it escalates the markets will probably start caring.. but how likely is it that KJU starts something when he knows he’d never win a military conflict. It’s very unlikely, so best to ignore it when making investment decisions unless something happens

        • vivelaamo says:

          The market didn’t seem to care last year when ‘rocket man’ was firing missiles at Japan. It set new records around the same time.

  40. scottycj1 says:

    This format could be good…..A Wednesday and weekend update.
    Not too much changes in a few days…….think you could cover most with this schedule and catch up on your health.

  41. mcgcapital says:

    Taken half on FTSE shorts with the oversold RSI.. will hold the rest and see what happens later

    • mcgcapital says:

      Buy signal now for a bounce if 7700 holds

      • mcgcapital says:

        Only managed 15 on the bounce.. probably going to have another go at breaking 7690 now.. it’s a sell under there, need to see if it can hold without faking out.

        Got no positions on going into FOMC, where we end up by the close depends whether tomorrow is going to be a longs or shorts day

  42. jobjas says:

    a potential ending diagonal

    • torehund says:

      You had a continuation pattern dig zag 2011 to 2017, then the previous limb is shorter than the current one. So an abc from 2009 is now surpassed. Apple will continue in a straight line upwards, insane yes but a chart is a chart.

  43. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    June 11, 2018 at 8:48 am

    in extension longs

    2795.5 target
    bull above 2768

    3000 plus continues to be validated


    target hit !
    now do we pull back
    or go thru target and create a new extension long?
    ie …. upside acceleration
    ie …. wave 3

    • scottycj1 says:

      upside acceleration

    • quickrick38 says:

      Thanks Phil…seems like you got your ‘mojo’ back? I was starting to worry about you because of some things you did over the last few days. After calling for 2796ES, you did something I’ve never seen you do before…you commented that the market could swoosh down. The market did not. Then, the next day you weren’t interested in anything but ‘silver was a buy’…say what?!!! Silver was a buy two weeks earlier…but not that day! Sure enough silver dropped. After who knows how long of near perfect calls (months) it was like something happened to you. I was seriously worried about you. Here’s hoping you are now back in cync with the market 🙂 Seriously, I have a great respect for your calls. All the best.

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      I’ll take Option #2, Bob: upside acceleration

    • floyd drummer says:

      nice trading, …. mr. rogue

  44. pooch77 says:


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