Weekend update


The week started at SPX 2735. The market gapped up on Monday to start the week. Then it made a higher high, than the day before, every day until Thursday when it hit SPX 2780. After that it pulled back by to SPX 2760, and then rallied to 2779 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.1%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: factory orders and consumer credit. On  the uptick: ISM, plus the trade deficit and weekly  jobless claims improved. Next week’s economic highlights include the FOMC meeting and industrial production.

LONG TERM: uptrend

Big picture. From the years 1932 to 2007 the stock market completed a Super cycle bull market. This multi-decade bull market, which includes multiple smaller bull/bear markets, was then corrected by the largest stock market decline since the 1929-1932 depression. The 2007-2009 great recession. Then in early 2009 the next multi-decade Super cycle bull market began. Each of these super cycle bull markets are created by five Cycle waves. The Cycle waves during that super cycle occurred during the following years: 1937-1942-1973-1974-2007. Note, of the three bullish cycle waves 1, 3 and 5, one was short (5 yrs.) and the other two were quite long (30+ yrs.). The US market is currently in a long Cycle wave 1 of the new Super cycle.

Each of these bullish cycle waves are created by five Primary waves. Waves within waves, greater to lesser: Super cycle, Cycle, Primary, Major, etc. From the early 2009 low the market unfolded in a 6-year bull market until mid-2015. We labeled that Primary I of Cycle 1. Then there was a short bear market into early 2016, which we labeled Primary II. From that low a Primary III bull market began. Historically, third Primary waves, in long cycle waves, are 15+ years in length. This suggests the current bull market is only Major wave 1 of Primary III, as labeled. Our target for the current bull market, since mid-2016, has been SPX 3000+ by 2018+.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

Over the past couple of weeks one short/medium term count appears to have emerged out of a handful of potential counts. This count is posted below, and also on several other important indices. When reviewing the entire wave structure of the 2016-2018 bull market the wave count does look quite clear. See weekly chart above.

Intermediate wave i rose 300+ points, and then was corrected by a multi-month irregular Int. wave ii zigzag correction. Intermediate wave iii took 19 months to unfold and gained nearly 900 points. After that there was an Int. wave iv, multi-month, flat correction, alternating with Int. ii. Even Minor waves 2 and 4 of Int. iii alternated in structure (zigzag-flat). Since that April low the SPX has been in a somewhat choppy uptrend. We are labeling this as Intermediate wave v.


As noted above. This uptrend has been rising since the early April low at SPX 2554. Internally it has been somewhat choppy compared to other uptrends in this bull market. However, the larger waves within the uptrend do suggest the market is progressing impulsively.

We have labeled Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 2717 and 2595. Then Minute waves i and ii at SPX 2742 and 2677. Minute wave iii should be underway at this time. Short term support is at the 2731 and 2656 pivots, with resistance at the 2780 and 2798 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mostly higher and gained 1.0% for the week.

European markets were mixed and lost 0.15% for the week.

The DJW index gained 1.3%, while the NYSE gained 1.7%.


Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude is also in a downtrend and lost 0.1%.

Gold, a downtrend here as well, but gained 0.3%.

The USD is in an uptrend but lost 0.8% on the week.


Tuesday: CPI and FED budget. Wednesday: PPI and FOMC statement. Thursday: jobless claims, retail sales, export/import prices, and business inventories. Friday: industrial production, the NY FED, and consumer sentiment. Best to your investing week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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372 Responses to Weekend update

  1. Arthur Knopf says:

    Glad to you’re healthy.


  2. fotis2 says:

    Tx Tony Crude looking for a short the rally op next week


  3. J.Wenger says:

    Welcome back Tony!


  4. jobjas says:

    Thanks, good to have you back Tony.


  5. Michael Pines says:

    TC, Best Wishes and thank you for the choice you make to be here. one question: on Daily Gold continuous Contract. Could the mid may low, 1281.2, be all of minor b?


  6. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Welcome Back Mr C(wasn’t there a TV show like that,with Gabe Kaplan?)Rhetorical question.Thanks for the analysis this weekend.Hoping gold is coiling for a post FED rate increase move.GL all.


  7. Mary773 says:

    Everything that has happened since the 2/9 major cycle low has been constructive.
    Triangle/5 reversal points/breakout for SPX.
    ATHs for Naz/NDX/RUT.
    The four month consolidation discouraged traders so 61% of respondents to the AAII poll are now bearish or neutral.
    Until bears take out the May-June SPX uptrendline, they are tilting at windmills.


  8. emuntrader says:

    Great to have you back Tony. The voice of reason. The trend does look great, and definitely looks like a great start of a Primary Wave III.


  9. Page says:

    Awesome!!!! Glad to see you back.


  10. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Great WE read & clear path from the OEW mentor.


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