Tuesday morning

Thank you all for your well wishes. Working on getting back up to date with the charts, etc. Planning to continue the weekend updates, and post during the week when there is something important. Thank you for your patience.

About tony caldaro

Investor
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571 Responses to Tuesday morning

    • emuntrader says:

      Crash modes usually happen when price is below the trend lines, and all the trend lines are pointing down. Volatility to ignore happens when all the trend lines are pointed up.

  1. Yesterday, Friday, June 9 is the first day since the crash this past winter that Percentage of SPX stocks above their 200 Simple Daily MA is moving up, i.e. yesterday was a new high.
    64.40%

    Seeing is believing.

  2. hohoho598 says:

    This is really not the site to talk politics, but in my opinion every so often there comes a time when a certain individual makes a positive difference to this world, either spiritually (Jesus), charitably (Mother Teresa), economically (Donald Trump). We don’t necessarily see it at the time, but the results are apparent after the fact.
    Garry/Holly you are a lunatic, get back on your meds. I feel sorry for the other blogs do you trash with your cut and paste diatribe.

  3. alexh110 says:

    SPX did more or less what I expected today; except the 2756 low occurred in the pre-market rather than intraday (and went a bit deeper).
    Think the path is now clear to the ATH and well beyond, and will be looking to add longs on Sunday night.

  4. lunker1 says:

    SPX up VIX up
    seen this one before

  5. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  6. I am desperate!

    I mentioned an insane election over a YEAR AGO. Was BANNED because of my opinion, and was adamant it would lead to financial and possibly military disaster. I was told I was the insane one. How is it possible I saw thru the CON yet almost everyone that voted for him then see nothing changed? A 44 percent rating? THAT has been my desperation to understand how people can delude themselves to such a degree. The man is attacking our allies, pardoning himself, separating children from mothers while declaring it’s the work of democrats and to this very day wants to have RUSSIA join in on meeting. Is there nothing he can say or do to affect that core? How does a person register his actions and accept them? No wonder the market marched on. Slow in the uptake? Will never understand what I consider common sense and simple analytical skills being tossed aside for over a year.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Christ.. why do you lie and embellish stuff so much? I’m no Trump fan and don’t agree with a lot of what he does but some of what you’ve written there just isn’t balanced.

      Firstly can’t you see that you were banned because Tony has said no politics as a rule, yet you continue to talk about it and repeat the same things over and over. He warned you a few times but you ignored him hence being banned. Absolutely nothing to do with you being a democrat or bullish or bearish or whatever. While you’ve been having a break the last few weeks the politics talk had dropped to a minimum.

      In terms of what you’ve written.. where’s the financial and military disaster? You just can’t really describe it as that if you’re being objective. On the military front you can’t argue that he’s achieved favourable outcomes so far with ISIS and North Korea. Financially the budget deficit might be a problem down the line, and the tax cuts were ill thought out (IMHO), but thus far there’s no financial disaster either.

      His style is to go in hard to get a deal, and with trade this isn’t going down well internationally… but so far it’s still not escalated into anything more than rhetoric and a few tariffs. That’s why the market doesn’t care because at the moment it’s not at a point where it affects growth, and we still don’t know how much of this stuff is going to come into force and when. Markets tend not to worry about negative stuff that might happen at some point in the future, but might not even happen. And because it’s a gradual thing in terms of it coming into force and affecting growth it’s not probably going to lead to a huge repricing on its own. You can’t trade on this sort of thing alone.

      He’s not pardoned himself either, just said he could but he doesn’t need to as done nothing wrong. You exaggerate everything for attention.

      Seriously though.. get some positive stuff in your life and stop being so negative about things you can’t affect. It’s not good for your health.

      • aahmichael says:

        Mcg, in regards to NK, Trump has not achieved anything favorable for anyone other than KJU. He’s giving KJU the summit that NK has always wanted without any preconditions or required commitments. In doing so, he has elevated KJU to a status he does not deserve. Trump talked tough in the beginning, but ultimately caved on everything because, as it turns out, Trump wants the photo-op even more than KJU does.

        • mcgcapital says:

          Agreed.. will either be a positive outcome or nothing will happen at all, it’s yet to be determined. But it definitely can’t be described as a military disaster as there is dialogue and no military action. Obviously it can all change but if we’re talking about where things stand, then it’s not a disaster

          • aahmichael says:

            They’re having a match.com meet-and-greet. 🙂

            • tommyboys says:

              The meeting ALONE is an accomplishment that no
              President has met in decades. Huge regardless of any outcome. How can you miss this??

              • aahmichael says:

                Nope. Any previous President could have easily had the meeting, however, none of them would give KJU such an honor without NK first getting rid of all of their nukes. The meeting should be the ultimate reward for NK. Instead, Trump is giving it away for free. Huge mistake. Ignorant mistake.

              • tommyboys says:

                LOL – you libs. “could have” is NOT doing…🙄

            • Tony Teo says:

              aah… Many ways to skin cat, non?
              Trump’s way may work. The other past Prezs did’nt even try or think outside the box too busy preserving their legacy? and Gary might concede when everybody when its QED!

          • themoose101 says:

            Politics and polite discourse, though occasionally observed together, are rarely terms that go hand-in-hand. Things can get very quickly out of control on this site; hence, why Tony’s asked that politics be removed and we limit the discussion to the markets. There’s far too much chest-thumping and over-the-top competition here anyway when it comes to financial discussion; we don’t need to exacerbate things by starting political fires.

    • Mary773 says:

      This world was never meant for one as beautiful as you..

    • vivelaamo says:

      Surely there are many blogs or forums out there where you can talk politics? Nobody wants to hear it here Gary.

  7. Thee is no way we go much higher. In fact I expect a sharp immediate drop Monday. Call me crazy but while the 10 day countdown is on hold the probability of TRUMP going all out on war is 100 percent. I know simply because the EU didn’t baby talk him with small gestures of conciliation like China did. China went the extra mile with 2 billion loans DIRECTLY affecting his pocketbook. Sweetened the pot with promises of 70 billion additional purchase in USA. Why the EU isn’t like those communist countries I don’t know. Perhaps they have integrity?

    If TRUMP can TWEET over weekend YOU are in trouble. If the Pulitzer prize winning President can stay in the clouds thinking he solved the mysteries of the universe then the market will hold out. Can’t be for more than a few days however. Imploding president. PARDON the expression.

    Anyone want to pace a bet where THEY leave this blog if I am wrong. Here it is: If by 6/22/18 we do not drop below 260 on SPY I will say goodbye. No more rants on El Presidente

    I want a list of names against my own. Many many names. Easy. Come on guys since my bet is so outrageous and lopsided towards failing surely you can give me 5 to 1 odds. That’s 5 names for mine. Start listing. FIVE to ONE is fair. In fact it is unfair for ME but I love to be the underdog.

    • E says:

      Even if you win the bet, who can prove that news or EW wins? Right now, you say we are sitting on the brink of bad news. I say we are on the cusp of a wave v breakout or truncation. Now when Monday comes and the market goes down, would it be the news that causes the truncation or the EW that forecasted the news? If the market goes up, would it be the news that triggers it, or the fact that an EW wave is just continuing?

      • Don’t know, don’t care. If Monday is in rally mode I obviously will not add PUTS. Inconceivable to me we rally while a trade war escalates. crazier things have happened.

        I “see” a setup for a large breakdown but the last time I announced it I was wrong. Timing sucked then as it might now. BUT I am pretty sure we have a retest of 253 and soon.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      you seem extremely desperate for attention. Feel sorry for you.

    • TRUMP proposes his own Group Meeting. Russia, China, Turkey, Philippines, Egypt, USA. The D6 stands for dictator. Only sticking point is who sits at the head of the table. Putin not going to give it up unless trump promises to lift all sanctions and have that Joint Cybersecurity setup in the White House with all Russian Equipment (this was no joke, actually was accepted by trump but got shot down soon after).

    • scottycj1 says:

      You wont leave….who else could you talk to other than the 2 or 3 other people inside your head…..Holly, Newbie, Gary. Dont you get it ? NOBODY here cares about your anti Trump rants…..go see a psychiatrist. Get help.

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      Good riddance shitbrick

    • aahmichael says:

      I’ve never understood why so many people on this blog have a need to make their trading a personal competition against others here. Everyone who does that reveals their serious emotional issues. Have you ever seen Tony do that? Of course not. Everyone on this blog should aspire to be like Tony.

      • SPYtrader says:

        “Everyone on this blog should aspire to be like Tony.” When is the last time you read a post from Tony ranting on so much hate for Trump that all he cares about is the market tanking so he could feel good about blaming Trump for it. I don’t ever remember him doing it.

    • stcoleridge says:

      I’ll definitely take that bet. Your size is my size sonny, as they say.

      • stcoleridge says:

        By the way you can’t even express your thoughts coherently. Don’t you mean that the person losing your bet would leave the blog if you were, miraculously,
        RIGHT. Sorry I know you probably hate that word, hence your error.

    • vivelaamo says:

      I’ll taks this bet too. Will happily risk leaving the blog if it means you no longer post your emotional political rants.

  8. Bill Manscoe says:

    I wish had the typing talent that Gary/Holly has

  9. stcoleridge says:

    2780 pivot doing its job, for now. Most likely to close around 2780 and then the o/n algos will ramp it up to the 2798 pivot on Sunday evening for your usual gap up Monday opening. Easy.

  10. phil1247 says:

    folks this is not rocket science

    unless you are a money manager
    who only wants to short in a huge bull market ……………………
    its hard to lose money

    bull above 2773
    target 2795.5 esu8

    have a great weekend !
    hasta!

  11. scottycj1 says:

    Ashley
    Posted Nov 8th 2016 election day about 1 pm….before any election results were in. My Gann forecast low was for Nov 4th…….There is another BIG date coming up using the same methodology.
    Also the May 2015 high and the Feb 11, 2016 low.

    scottycj1 says:
    November 8, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    There will be no sharp selloff……..regardless of who wins…….this wave goes much higher than any of you are thinking……
    2016-11-04_1106

    • torehund says:

      Agree and this time it was easy by just looking on the macd. Free money to be had🤑

    • Ashley says:

      ZZZZ…. What a yawner of a day and Im not short BTW….. Gann? Donno nothing about it, I don’t think little 4 or the bigger one is over yet if it’s even 4, could be the end of 2 with 3 down coming…. I can tell you my cash in a money market account pays more than the dividend yield on the SPX LOL and I sleep very well at night =)

    • stcoleridge says:

      Yes, but it was a little bit uncomfortable being long SPX futures on Election night when they were limit down. Thank the trading gods for Carl Icahn.

  12. emuntrader says:

    alright everybody, have a great weekend. Im out.

  13. It’s so over! Macron – We don’t mind being G6. A direct quote. No, not fake news. Markets seem to love the news. Close today 2748. Currently at the HIGH of day 2776.

    • vivelaamo says:

      If we close above 2770 will you go another break from the blog?

      • You are a fraud! I bet you before with absurd odds on YOUR PART yet you refused. Call yourself a trader? How’s that NO TRADE WAR coming along? The hard stand by EU emboldened Trump to double down. Watch him mention AUTO’s !!!!!!! Trump has NOTHING to lose here. I TRUST the market understands what is going on. Lets see how we close today shall we. Anyone placing money on the LONG side when we are about to go into a full blown trade war is expecting to survive a bomb blast. Of course TRUMP can easily wipe this discussion away with ONE PHRASE. “No Trade War”.

        • Looks like Britain is siding with TRUMP! The 2 free world nations that had its most glorious moments in history is now a shell of itself. Sad, so sad. Putin is LOVIN IT!

          BTW, Trump fans, what happened to the main culprit of trade imbalance CHINA? Hmmm. Tis a puzzlement.

          Am I nuts or is this a market mover? Full Blown Trade Wars? Nah, trump will come around. IF market rallies today I will concede the 44% wins yet again!

        • vivelaamo says:

          I don’t believe I ever called myself a trader.

          I can’t rememeber what it is you wanted to bet on last time but I remember you completely changed the terms.

          If you are so confident we will close at 2749 just take the bet. If we close below 2780 you will take another break from posting? Not so confidant anymore?

        • tommyboys says:

          You don’t like our Predident Holly?

    • Only question not answered: Will Japan join with EU in Trade War. My vote is NO, too much to lose. Putin’s plan all along. Is Putin in the WH? Can’t do any better than trump. But it must be my obsessive nature to think Russia is involved. Trump asked Putin and he said NO. Good enough for me. Must be that 500 lb hacker.

      This day is important. Very important. it has to close positive or the odds that we already started the countdown from T-minus 10 is that much stronger.

    • E says:

      Not so quick. The triangle just busted upwards which means there should be three waves up to go. That should take this close to 2800. It doesn’t sound like you believe in EW, but just wait and watch before throwing your money away.

  14. scottycj1 says:

    BEARS

    We gonna

  15. E says:

    Looks like we are in a wave 4 triangle again! Will it break up into wave 5 (another +50 points) or get truncated?

    • Ashley says:

      Looks like an ending diagonal on COMP Q and the rest are just following, I still think we need one more down into the 2750’s before any kind of significant up… Maybe just go up from here but nowhere near ATH’s on SPX and DOW without resetting the ST RSI to oversold first… I don’t like it either way here….

  16. mcgcapital says:

    This is still a traders market, its as good as it gets at the moment so just enjoy trading both sides and don’t get too fixated on where it’s going long term.

    RE some stuff is making new highs therefore it’s definitely bullish.. the reason the textbooks say new highs are bullish is because you want to be long in something that is consistently going up like last year. You can’t sell that kind of market without being very selective about your entries.

    But.. when a market makes new highs and there’s no follow through that’s a different story. You want to see the breakout level hold and if it doesn’t, that’s when it becomes bearish instead. Nasdaq has done that twice already this year in March and this week. Last time we dropped almost 1000 points.. not saying that will happen but just that if it did, you can’t be using new highs as an excuse to hold on.

    Thought process should be ‘new highs is bullish.. I want to see this follow through’ then ‘no follow through.. right I need to get out and reevaluate’.

    I find it a bit odd that people aren’t doing that given the same people were saying the same things in March and then it tanked. You’d think they’d learn to adapt to conditions

    • scottycj1 says:

      No need to get out when the market consolidates……

      • mcgcapital says:

        It’s not consolidating though is it.. looks like bears in control of price now under yesterday’s high at 2779. Was referring specifically to the Nasdaq though.. bullish breakouts run and run.. they don’t edge above the prior high for one day then dropped 2% back below the prior high

        Absolutely it can break higher.. but it’s about probabilities

        • scottycj1 says:

          MANY MANY times there is a breakout and then a RETEST…..and a bit of consolidation.
          Not much in the markets is straight line.

        • vivelaamo says:

          Look at 24th August 2017 when spx broke out of down trend. Nearly gave back all the gains a few days later and the rest is history. I think today’s selling at over bought levels was expected.

          It looks really bullish to me mate.

  17. fionamargaret says:

    Here is what the numbers suggest….
    Long the vixes, long the long bond……VXX, UVXY, TMF
    Short the indices….SQQQ, SDOW, TZA, SPXS…..and short oil…DWT….

  18. phil1247 says:

    gary

    1 min ext long held
    bull above 67.5

    • Ashley says:

      Need to fill the gap on the DOW at 25150, I need to see oversold before I buy it….

    • gary61b says:

      Phil, thats to small of time frame. your in the nanos stay in the micros or bigger..”Rogue or bust”.

      • gary61b says:

        when is your room opening Phil….Rogue HD trading? olive branch to HD to sway him.

      • phil1247 says:

        ha !
        i knew that would get your attention
        its a 5 min really

        gotta go

        see ya!

        • chrisk44342 says:

          Love the rogue charts Phil. As much as I appreciate them, I fare much better when observing the traditionals. For me, the extension has to be pretty obvious, otherwise I am not sure of it’s value. After all, fibs are only valuable if other market participants observe them as well.

  19. lunker1 says:

    yesterday VIX long from 11.22 low held the 618 and today it held the 382. Double top today or will it break out

  20. IF we are mimicking the last 2 drops the first 4 days should start our slow and build pressure. It should also close 4 days in a row down or flat. With G7 mess this weekend and a multitude of outcomes I hesitate to guess if we hold well till Tuesday. The North Korea meet is also early next week. I will be STEALING PHILS calls going forward especially if he sees a large gap down. I am sure Phil will not mind. I have always placed my bets earlier than I should. Need some patience.

    Good luck all! I had thought we were there a while ago and was dead wrong. With the 21 week time frame it seem to make more sense here.

  21. Theodore Lerts says:

    For anyone considering an attempt to short the dollar, I advise a strong word of caution. The dollar is currently strong, and I expect strong acceleration upwards beginning later in the summer.

    • The 10 year note is ALSO recovering very quickly and should also see well over 3 percent. A one/two punch to stocks!

      • Theodore Lerts says:

        I’m bullish SPX and $USD. USD will meander a bit but I expect strong upside acceleration in a couple months.

        • tommyboys says:

          Agree. While there is no longer term correlation but generally slightly higher rates anchor a stronger dollar which attracts foreign investment in US equities. There is of course a tiipping point with rates but that’s quite a bit further down the road. Been preaching for 8 years that 5-6% is where to begin getting cautious – still think the same…

      • Oh course you do. What do you suppose happens to the yield if we get that trade war and stocks take a tumble? Me, I predicate it on prior stock crashes where safe haven is the name of the game. Will not be in your charts yet.

  22. Looks like buy the dip for wave 5. Free money Friday.

  23. gary61b says:

    The local rubber room matinee is playing…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urglg3WimHA

  24. emuntrader says:

    Thoughts…

    Futures currently a little lower than what I expected today. 2757 on the $SPX cash is my line in the sand. Interesting diagonals in play.

  25. It’s trade war TIME! Unhinged and on the attack. Wants a G8 with his pall Putin. I guess the silly argument of Putin attacking each of the G7 elections is a minor quibble. 44 percent approval? Americans have as much reasoning capabilities as a paramecium. Pardoning everyone including himself. Mentioned how great Pruitt is doing. The market is already reacting. You aint seen nothin yet! But hey, what do I know. Canada attacked the White House, Witch hunt from Democrats, Hillary should be indicted with Obama, a man that’s on the run.

    • aahmichael says:

      Just like Trump was unaware that it was the British (and not the Canadians) who burned down the WH, he also doesn’t know why Russia was kicked out of the G-8 (he’s apparently never heard of Crimea.)

      • Heck he was in Trump Tower as his son set up meeting with 5 Russians for adoption but Trump himself “knows nothing”. Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Kushner, Page, etc… all had a coincidental affinity for Putin and liked working for the man. I will be LOADING up for the next 2 week romp. Unhinged unstable means danger Will Robinson! After the North Korea meeting it could get very ugly. I mentioned this very exact scenario over a year ago and I was told I was the lunatic. A cornered man in his mental state with his supreme power is not something I want to contemplate, but we have no choice.

        • kingfrogcash says:

          Which is worse, that the CIA infiltrated the Trump campaign, or that they failed to stop him.
          Canada was a colony of the British. But who cares about details when your bashing the President, eh! The first thing Donald says to Trudeau when they meet. How about those Capitols! Europe needs to worry about their bank failures. $DB is toxic.

        • tommyboys says:

          “Unhinged unstable” 🤔

    • tommyboys says:

      Such hypocrites. We’re not suggesting tariffs on nations that don’t already tariff the US – only nations that have way outta balance tariffs on the US – and have for decades. Where do you see the injustice here? Further many of these countries pay their workers a few dollars/day – how is this fair to the US working class? I was in the Steel biz for 25 years and guess what ejected a big chunk of the industry andI I ? Dirt cheap imported material from Greece, Turkey, Mexico, Canada, Russia other eastern blocks and later China. We had to compete as a private enterprise against all these countries who were subsidized by their governments and paid workers a fraction of ours – your preferred Socialist policies at work! We had had about zero tariffs on any of this steel. At the same time these countries had steep tariffs on US produced steel (some 100%+). The US Steel industry is a fraction of what it once was. Fair 🤔.

      Meanwhile you complain (media inspired) about tax cuts and tariffs yet trade and invest in the Capital Markets in the US – LOL too funny. Hypocrites for sure.

      Obama put plenty of tariffs in place. Why does the media make an issue and brainwash their minions today – mmm 🤔❓

      • Does anyone here know that China/HK charges 100% sales tax on autos?
        Chinese students call home to ask richy rich mom and dad for money because they need a car in the states. The P’s send them 2x the cost of an accord. Hence, Chinese students are driving NSXs, Porches, BMWs, and GT-Rs.

        Tommyboy’s right.
        TDS and hypocrits.
        Sick of the Trump-bashing/politics. Tony, where are you?

        • Not only TDS, but Gary/Holly must be sunk in RED with all the bear talk, and he/she is now really coming unhinged.
          Yeah yeah…”I made a lot of money in February/March with the trade war talk buying puts.” All gone now, I bet.

    • lunker1 says:

      Gary enough already we get your point you make the same long winded bull crap several times a day it’s freaking annoying

  26. gary61b says:

    If spx opens negative the 60 will show a -D at 2780 pivot. as a heads up.

  27. Lee X says:

    Hope your week went well Tony !

    To the rest of yas , don’t quit your day jobs 😉

    • torehund says:

      Lee best to be sitting on the sidelinje comfortably, listen there will be cost-push inflation soon, workers will have their Bull market too not just their boss. Keep the🃏 Ready ! Sell yourself when in demand🙏

  28. vivelaamo says:

    Am I the only one seeing some consolidation of overbought levels after 90 points in just over a week?

    Bit premature to say we going back down after 1 day of stalling.

  29. phil1247 says:

    GOLD

    bollinger band pinch
    stuck between short and long
    something BIG is coming soon

    • Mary773 says:

      The Euro has a 132 (+/-1) week cycle that appears to have bottomed on 5/28. If so, the impending move in gold could be explosive. The SPX low on 2/9 was a nine year cycle that produced the 2000 bear market and the 2009 bull market, so barring a catastrophic event the frequent negative (contrived) news stories that are producing these short term declines should be viewed as buying opportunities. Since SPX completed its fifth reversal point on 5/29, the longest decline has been six hours. Today’s open will begin hour six of this decline, so it should be instructive as to whether the short term time translation remains very positive. If not, there is support at 2742-2734. Tony has projected SPX over 3000, and thus far there is zero technical evidence to indicate a top. A pattern of lower highs and lows would change that, but with Naz and RUT just making new ATHs the bear case currently consists of wishing and hoping.

      • aahmichael says:

        I don’t see how you can proclaim at this time that the 9 year cycle hit on 2/9, rather than on 1/26. As I’m sure you are aware, in 2000, the DOW topped in January. NAZ and RUT topped 2 months later in March 2000. Tops are frequently a process, and the indexes often top at different times. Nevertheless, in regards to the 9 year cycle, 18 years from the DOW Jan 2000 high would be the DOW 1/26 high, not the 2/9 low. SPX also topped in March 2000, and so far, its March 2018 high has not been exceeded either.

        • Mary773 says:

          It is 32 revolutions of 70.28 trading days, which is a 1/9 subset of the master 132 week cycle that been prevalent in financial markets since the 1920s. Project 638 trading days off the 2000 and 2007 SPX highs and see what you get. The nine year cycle was due 2/9/2018.

          • aahmichael says:

            Once again, if the 32 revolutions of 70.28 trading days were accurate, then the Dow, Naz, RUT, and SPX would have all topped and bottomed at the exact same hour on the exact same day at every cycle turn. However, the fact that they did not top at the same time in 2000 means that they should not top (or bottom) at the same time in 2018. By the way, the NYA didn’t top until 9/2000. On the other hand, if the 2/9 low holds for the next 9 years, then I’ll say that you came to an excellent conclusion on how to interpret the cycle.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Superb post as always Mary. 3050 target remains.

        Many thanks.

  30. phil1247 says:

    chris

    see why breaking the es short alone is not enough ?

  31. gary61b says:

    ES may have left the station. HWB was 2754.5 and trade in play above 2748.5.

  32. alexh110 says:

    Futures looking very weak.
    Will the market throw us another curve ball today?

    • mcgcapital says:

      Nothing has changed in this market has it.. everytime we break out there’s like a day or two of rally then straight back down. Seen that on Nasdaq, FTSE and now SPX this year. On the flip side, there seems to be a fair amount of buying underpinning when we go down. Basically just a wide trading range between 2550-2800.. it’s going to take a change of character for that range to break. Favour a move back to the bottom of the range next

      • alexh110 says:

        You could be right; though since the low at the beginning of April, the downside momentum has been getting dramatically weaker on the two subsequent lows.

        Since the IHS on the daily MACD pattern is skewed to the upside, I have to lean towards a bullish stance.

      • E says:

        Downside momentum appears weak because we are in the final and fifth Wave up before the big down wave from the next Elliott cycle level (minor or intermediate) wipes everything out. Same phenomenon as late January.

  33. https://au.news.yahoo.com/france-canada-warn-trump-trade-war-010905151–spt.html
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/abe-faces-pressure-to-join-trade-war-against-the-u-s.html

    Trade War? What trade war? But when the market starts tanking you all will have the EW answer.
    No matter what the market does it can’t be from events like announcing a 6 nation trade agreement leaving US out could it?

    Gee, I wonder how the strange “corrective” market coincided exactly with the start of the trade war. I mean EXACTLY! But so many obvious things seem missing here. You only have till this weekend to see the startling coincidences once again. IF of course trump does what he always has.

    • If I see the “pattern” develop like the last 2 drops I will make big bets on longshots. Heck I was luck then, perhaps I could get lucky again. With the money I made I can certainly afford these fake out moments. this time I hold back for three consecutive drops before deciding. Most of the plunges are setup in the first 5 days anyway. Expect the same going forward.

      BTW someone should look up the conversation between Trudeau and Trump on nation security issues. Funny stuff.

      • mcgcapital says:

        You should get some counselling, it’s really not healthy to talk like you do.

        ‘With the money I made I can afford these fake out moments.’ Sorry but that’s just not how successful traders think.. how do you know it’s a fake out at the time, there’s no way of knowing until it turns. Market was trending up at the start of the week so had to be long or sidelined, now it’s going down so short or sidelined.

        If you are making money at the moment it’s more luck than process because as far as I can see you just make outlandish bets all the time on the basis of politics. Good luck

    • tommyboys says:

      Don’t believe any fake trade war news. You’ve shown us repeatedly how vulnerable you are to the negative media coverage yet repeatedly proven wrong. Learn from this. Media swamp hates outsider Trump but Trump winning for the Middle Class. Put your media programmed bias aside and connect the dots – or stop posting it here.

      • CampFreddie says:

        Agree tommy, as usual.

      • aahmichael says:

        Tommyboys, everyone has a bias of one sort or another. If the methods that Gary/Holly uses to enter and exit trades are net profitable for him/her, then it’s no more or no less valid than the methods that anyone else uses. The fact that he/she is a narcissistic attention whore on this blog is also not unique.

    • Holly:
      Thanks for your insight on fundamentals.

  34. jobjas says:

    SPX completing C (?) of ending diagonal

  35. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  36. alexh110 says:

    The hourly MACD pattern on SPX seems to indicate a deeper low tomorrow, perhaps around 2756? Followed by an intraday reversal, and rip higher. The daily MACD histogram should keep rising to maintain upside momentum.

    The Dow looks like it needs a deeper sell-off tomorrow, followed by a period of sideways consolidation.

    If Tony’s count is correct, SPX should accelerate back to the ATH very quickly, and probably move higher still.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …or Alex, if we were writing this, we either should fall short of the ATH, before going down, or go to it, making a DT….leaving the door open for a sequel in the Fall….

      • lunker1 says:

        Fiona you’ve constantly been calling for 2200s and daily calls of shorting the indices so with a post like this one I don’t know how you make money in the market and I really don’t know how anyone could make money following your posts

      • alexh110 says:

        Could get an Int v triangle I suppose; but suspect that has a low probability within a Secular Bull.
        We had a Major 5 triangle in 2015; but that impulsed above the previous ATH before entering the triangle. And that EDT occurred during the Secular Bear.

        I started trading in 1998, so have very little experience of a Secular Bull Market. Not sure whether fifth wave EDTs are more common during the Secular Bear; but suspect that may be the case.

      • stan911 says:

        Hi Fiona not having a go at you but lunker is correct in saying that it’s not reassuring with what you have commented, you have been calling for lower numbers for a while now but now saying that DT could happen or fall short and then your sequence for lower numbers to play out . I and a few others have ask the question how high can the snp go before the sequence is wrong or has changed with no response but with the comment above it can go back to ATH’s and the sequence is still in play.
        So right now the 2 camps are new highs or new lows in Feb is was in the camp that the low the we made was it and off to new highs, I don’t actually trade snp but the Dow but use the snp as a guide. With that said I had the Dow heading back to 27+k but as the months went on the one thing I noticed was the time the gaps in the 2800s not getting filled so I started to lean with maybe lower prices are to come. Maybe it’s time to go back and fill the gaps that were left below and leave the one at the top for now. So right now when we hit 2742 that was the 61.8% retrace and keeping within the triangle but didn’t hold and someone commented that it can go up to 78% and still be fine, I’m no EW expert but the Dow 61.8% is 25339 we hit 25326 yesterday and when I have been working out my numbers I’ve slways been labeling it as a ABC with this just being a drawn out B with C to start, if this is the case then C starts now with yesterday’s high being it or we go back and make a incremental high (2783) with C = 21747-
        21760, snp(2348) approx. If this does become a major2 then target works out to be 2217, if that’s the case then this drop will only be the beginning of wave C which consists of 5 waves

        • fionamargaret says:

          Stan, my reply to Alex was a purely hypothetical one “if we were writing this”, as in a drama,…..nothing to do with things the way I see them. It was meant to make him smile, thus my writing to him (I did not leave it as a question to the forum).

          As for Lunker’s comments…I have only been wrong once in oil (maybe this time too, but I think lower, maybe to 59).
          I was right about TLT (so far), even although it was supposed to be “rolling over” quite a few times.
          I also called the large down on the days (2) it happened.
          I also can tell what a stock is going to do, find shorts etc…
          Now, as for my calling for short on up days, I have explained this before…just as in a painting or photograph there are positive and negative images. I check the sequence on both, and put a bid in on the best sequence (remember I am day-trading or just slightly longer) since my progression for the S&P completed at 2609.
          Money can be made on both sides, and anybody following me would have made the same as me.
          I try in the evenings a gentler touch and it seems to have worked well, as the numbers coming to the site are certainly more than the original 15 or so when I started.
          Tony had done all the research…the word just needed to get out, and have a friendly person to speak with.
          Maybe the site would have done just as well (better) with Lunker’s ideas and charisma, but then we are dealing in the hypothetical again….

          • fionamargaret says:

          • stan911 says:

            Not saying your wrong bec your numbers are certainly right it was more so regarding the sequence and how high can the snp go before the sequence changed and from the response it can go back to the highs, and as for the oil call it did end going to 72 which I do remember you call for

            • fionamargaret says:

              You are a great help to me Stan and I really appreciate you.
              My answer to Alex was totally fictitious.
              Oftentimes I called oil, and then when it was proving correct, another would take the credit.
              I share quite freely in every aspect of my life, but felt this was beyond reasonable, so stopped for a while.
              I need to get another dog….x

    • scottycj1 says:

      Thats my outlook……..If the trade negotiations settle….we could shoot above 3000 quickly.

  37. I really thought market was going to tank today at 2760. But the pulled the yo yo right back up and almost got to even for the day. -2 for the day. Futures were red and yank in minutes plus .50
    No idea were we go tomorrow, but lots of strength or retails buyers just a tune to buying the dip.

    Have a good night all and good luck.tomorrow should be fun

  38. Mary773 says:

    Gold speculators are morose:

  39. rd3777 says:

    Top in place….tomorrow 3rd wave of 1

    • E says:

      Not yet. Looks like there may still be more wave up to go.

    • E says:

      One more

      • Ashley says:

        The range looks like 2730-2805 to me, in the bears favor is a MACD cross on the 60 min on the SPX and COMPQ… That said Id expect wave 4 to alternate wave 2 with a flatter correction if were gonna lift off to the top of the range…. I have about 2752 as the/bull bear line short term and above 2805 ish I’ll start rethinking the bear case with the gap above at 2835 OEW pivot my line in the mud….

      • rd3777 says:

        Maybe…maybe not,……

    • vivelaamo says:

      Didn’t you say that a few days ago? And every day for around 3 months? Suppose if you keep saying it every day eventually you’ll be right.

      Good luck.

      • E says:

        Just to support RD a bit, this stuff is very difficult to call. Although the elliot wave patterns are definitely there, one can’t be certain which wave we are in until a few waves have run their course. Right now it seems clear we are in the fifth wave up since May 3. (Wave 1 ended May 8 and Wave 3 ended May 14, followed by a Wave 4 triangle). Wave 5 started May 29 and it’s clearly impulsive with several extensions; but it’s difficult to tell if we are still in a wave 3 extension; wave 5 extension; or completely finished. As a learner, I’m now thinking it is stupid to try to time wave 1s. Might as well wait until it is clearly a wave 3 before taking on any positions. Thoughts on this any one?

        • R D. says:

          So far so good. I count this entire move up from 2008 as a giant 3 wave paradigm. As such W,X,Y,X,Z which fits the corrective move in the JPN225. I look for a wave A decline to SPX 1800. Thanks E

          • E says:

            Do you see wave 3 down to 2450 then wave 5 to 1800 later in the year or steeper than that? I think wave I started long before 2008. Maybe 1987 if this is a Wave III. Coincidences with age of technology.

  40. so were do we close at today

  41. Mary773 says:

    Gold has been basing for years.
    The COT numbers are favorable.
    Let’s see if this provides the catalyst for a breakout:

  42. vivelaamo says:

    Added to longs. Pb’s are gold dust now no matter how shallow.

  43. stan911 says:

    Dows 61.8% retrace 25339 we hit 25326 if this plays out as a ABC Dow should head to 21747 I guess time will tell

    • emuntrader says:

      2785/6 is a 1.618 ratio of “int i.” i think we need one more leg up from here. short term deeper correction would be expected as we get closer to a intermediate top. Retracement theory.

      • emuntrader says:

        There is also a H&S on the 30 min RSI 14. normally when i see those – we get one more higher high to set up a good -div to put in a more important pull back.

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