Friday Update

Tony is back everything is going well. He’ll do his normal posting in the next few days.

To answer some of the questions that keep being thrown my way. First I’m his daughter and he is in the later stages of COPD. So, if you know anything about it, it means some absences here and there. Please keep being positive, respectful and considerate!

Thank you for your patience in the last few weeks!

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234 Responses to Friday Update

  1. torehund says:

    Good to have you back Tony.
    Stance on market remains the same, macd histogram on weekly has been subzero and started to decline in late 2017, now back to zero and macd lines are ready to hock. No way we will decline from here in a significant way. Very bullish and indesputably so😳🤓😎

  2. phil1247 says:

    free fall continues
    extensions of extension shorts
    64.28 target hit
    now bounce or continue collapse

    looks like ending diagonal call was correct 2 weeks ago
    now with typical rapid collapse back to the origin near 59

  3. I gave permissions to everyone who wanted to open the John Murphy chart. It would not copy and paste and I ended up saving it to my Google drive.

  4. vivelaamo says:

    I think we might get some slight consolidation here or maybe a small pb. Above 2741 and I’m a buyer of dips.

  5. mcgcapital says:

    Sell the gap up today on SPX with 10 stop.. see where it goes. FTSE showing signs of 7600 coming up

  6. H D says:

    The bottom line is most EW’rs have been playing an edge based on price, pattern, and time. It’s been working all year. Is it over? Maybe. Can we adjust and move on? yes. Not sure why there is any bashing of calls or opinions. Triangles are the least predictive and least reliable pattern. The fact that it worked so long is incredible.
    Tony’s has always been a community of ideas. IMO, objectively, the triangle idea now has the lowest probability. Stay classy & GL

    • vivelaamo says:

      Agree. Let’s all respect one another. We are all just trying to make money at the end of the day.

      It may just be the internet. But insults can still hurt right?

      I’ve been guilty as most. Can’t take it back.

      Good luck to all.

  7. wanderer says:

    Looks like everybody got it wrong … except Fred.

    The reasons for the drop were:
    1. Planetary alignments (Jupiter and Saturn in the wrong places relative to Mercury)
    2. Elliott Wave (some sort of magical ratios, such as 1.618 and 3.14)
    3. Geometric patterns (a triangle embedded in a pentagon iterwoven in an irregular zig-zag)
    4. Italian politics (Catalonia wants to separate from Spain and join Italy)
    5. Ancient Japanese mythology (shooting stars above the hanging man)

    I wonder what Fred uses for his analysis?

    • torehund says:

      Interesting video Newbie, thanks.
      Difficult with gold is that an euro crash could Shake gold further for US holders. Ex US gold is surely a winner right here.

  8. tommyboys says:

    US corps putting $2.5 Trillion into buybacks & dividends. Any melt-up
    has yet to begin…

  9. NEWBIE says:

    Over 635 million is Selling on Strength printed on Friday. An additional 410 million Selling on Strength printed on Monday. The over 1 billion in Selling on Strength over the past two days is clear indication that smart money is selling into the break out.

    • fxaprendiz says:

      That’s one of the sites I follow regularly.
      Balanced daily cycle analysis with some forward-looking value although it usually needs some confirmation so you can’t trade based on daily cycles alone.
      If the high for this current cycle is printed today or tomorrow, expect 10 to 15 more trading days before the cycle’s low is printed.
      I’m expecting said low to be above last low of 2595, probably around the 2610.
      Then another daily cycle should start which should be the last cycle to complete the consolidation process started in January. Said cycle should be a FAILED daily cycle, meaning it should print an even lower low that the previous cycle low. So when it’s all said and done SPX should print a final low between 2600 and the mid/low 24’s, depending on which one of the 2 EW I’m following comes true.

  10. tommyboys says:

    Sweet new high in daily & weekly A/D. Market likely about to accelerate higher. Need couple closes above 2800 😚

  11. mcgcapital says:

    If this was 2017, tomorrow this would have held around 2740s overnight and would then ramp in the futures, and ramp again on the US open. Let’s see what happens.. is it really going to just take off and not look back? I’m not sure.. still feels like a lack of liquidity to me as not all boats are rising together. The current flavour of the day is small caps and tech.. last month it was FTSE and Dax. Got to stay flexible in this market

    • E says:

      Small caps seem to have stopped accelerating. DJT and DJU were both down today.

      • mcgcapital says:

        It’s still a mixed market to me.. let’s see what tomorrow brings.. if it’s going to go down then ideally there would be an intraday reversal and break of 2740. Can’t see a trade set up on it as things stand other than being long with stop under 2740 but not keen on that one

        • Ashley says:

          A quick glance at Tonys 60 minute SPX chart tells me the inverted H/S still has about 50 more points to go up… Crazy I know and I tried to go long today at 2746, waited around all day to sell and break even… Thing is I didn’t want to hold overnight here, it reached my minimum target at todays high and there are those two gaps below but if those get filled Im thinking were going down hard anyway… Tough spot to trade here IMHO…..

      • E
        They still did well and will accelerate again.The fundamental reason for their relative strength will continue for a long time. But there will be periods of levelling off or they would become severely overbought and overextended

  12. NEWBIE says:

    Everybody long expecting to go higher and it looks like most of the bears have capitulated. Perfect recipe for carnage.

  13. 123 abc says:

    The 2731 OEW pivot range has now been taken out after serving as resistance for 21 days, so the bullish count on the DOW (first chart) may be gaining traction.

    The bearish triangle count on the SPX (second chart) may remain valid with the following levels to terminate wave-d:
    @2766 : d = b * 0.786
    @2780 : OEW Pivot

    Taking out the 2780 OEW pivot ought to confirm the bullish scenario.

  14. Gary Lewis says:

    I was waiting and waiting and waiting for that big turn, the big sell off that many are hyping for today. So much for credibility. Probably would do well in politics.

  15. any green close would be positive for the bulls and a close over 2743 would be even more positive for the bulls, see what the last 73 minutes does

  16. phil1247 says:

    ashley ..

    re CL

    going thru target now
    bottom can fall out
    extensions of extensions

  17. mcgcapital says:

    Out on FTSE for 40 points.. oversold on the 5 min, will see how it’s set up tomorrow

  18. ending diagonal valid until 2825. means we probably hit 2775 if over that 2800. Bulls will max this out. over 2825 bulls win. would love to see a massive up day tomorrow to try a short from 2775-2800 level.

    Good luck all

  19. Here is a list of all the successful crash callers on this blog since 2009.


    • fxaprendiz says:

      Some of us aren’t uber bears neither calling for a crash. We just see this for what it is: a multi-month consolidation which is probably not over yet and therefore with a high probability of a last move/leg down before ending.
      Not everyone is an extremist.

    • rd3777 says:

      A Crash in in June 2018

    • chrisk44342 says:

      ha ha. good one

    • travis01 says:

      You just don’t understand the difference between a crash and a pullback / downturn. Same direction, different magnitude and timeline. 😂

      • fotis2 says:

        His view is a bit longer than the next 5 minutes

        • travis01 says:

          No every day on this site ppl chirp in to make fun of bulls and bears quoting things they don’t understand. Pooch or Fiona or anyone else showing a case for a pullback of 100 pts is not a crash. Pullbacks can last weeks or longer and still not be a crash, and a crash of 600 pts could happen in “5” minutes.

      • pooch77 says:

        And we have none of three

  20. stcoleridge says:

    Going max long NDX here at 7140 on this awesome breakout, mortgaging everything I own (sorry kids).
    Much better set up than last week when I could have filled my boots between 6900-6950.

    • fionamargaret says:

      …JNJ down to 112…another short….

      • stcoleridge says:

        Maybe but NDX is going to initiate interstellar overdrive very soon. A slingshot around the moon and then set the controls for the heart of the sun.

        • fionamargaret says:

          …now Mr. Coleridge, did not the sun and moon prove unfriendly in previous circumstances to your Ancient Mariner…..

  21. fxaprendiz says:

    SPX… I just added to my original 2730 short taken last Friday, with another short at 2744 for an average of 2737.
    I’m not averaging down. I’m scaling in as part of my trading plan was to get in with 3 shorts as price action dictates.
    I’ll take the 3rd short tomorrow or later in the week depending on price action.
    So far it seems like SPX won’t even make it to 2760 before rolling over.
    Once the ball gets rolling my first pit stop will be around 2610.
    Good luck to the medium term bears. Bulls just try to be nimble here… Just my 2 cents

  22. scottycj1 says:

    Cant close the gap today……shorts will get anxious in awhile.

  23. gary61b says:

    ES, 2752/2718.75 as A, 2718.75/2591 as B, 2791/2758 as C then A=C and is symmetrical, but C could go to 1.618 of A (2860) without being an anomaly. 2758 is also target for 2752/2718.75 leg.

  24. mcgcapital says:

    Sentiment and bear baiting this afternoon. Some of these guys are good and worth a follow. But the trend isn’t up or down, it’s sideways.. so obviously we shouldn’t be surprised if breakouts are sold off or vice versa

  25. learnedmylesson25 says:

    If they rally them today and tomorrow in IWM–that index re-embeds.Nasdaq still is embedded bullishly.SPX is the weak link so far.Whether SPX gets pulled up by the other two (probably)or SPX sells off,taking down the other two(probably not),we’ll see.HYG,a slight negative div compared to equities–a negative.If this is a fakeout,NAS and IWM will lead the way down.GL all.

  26. lunker1 says:

    NEWBIE on June 3, 2018 at 7:32 am
    Why are none of you bulls talking about all the negative news that’s coming out this weekend?

    Because the market’s in an uptrend

  27. phil1247 says:


    re ,,,, 30 yr bond short

    ZN is weaker … i prefer shorting weakness
    but TLT/ ZB looks ready to give way as well

  28. phil1247 says:

    crude collapse progressing nicely to target at 64.68

    if it doesnt bounce there … look for all out collapse

  29. fenster6 says:

    sure looks to me like we broke out of the triangle . Already stopped out half my shorts and the rest is pretty close.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Could well be a fakeout.. don’t like trading fake outs but see how far it carries today as it just looked like panic buying on the open

      • Ashley says:

        I just tried a long….

        • mcgcapital says:

          Well.. set ups are buy here and hope it carries but get out under 2740ish as that means it’s clearly going back into the range. Or sell here and get out at 2760ish and try and play it as a fake out. 50/50 to me, have to see which one happens

  30. stan911 says:

    What’s trump done twitting he has every right to pardon himself

    • H D says:

      With zero constitutional accountability it’s a race to autocracy.
      Where are the patriots?

      • csonkabull39 says:

        The patriots quit caring in about 1812. It’s all about “What’s in it for me!!!”. Trump hammers the Dems; Trump hammers the Elephants…McCain, Ryan, McConnell. The Dems screwed Bernie…they are still trying for Trump. GL H D

  31. fotis2 says:

    “Reality” is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves. It seems most stock market soothsayers are seeing a breakout of the downtrend that erupted in early February, and so the path to new all-time highs is clear.
    Does anyone else see a giant bear flag pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500? Maybe I’m the only one who sees a bearish signal instead of a bullish breakout.

    SPX Daily Chart

    Charles Hugh Smith

  32. mcgcapital says:

    Have FTSE as a sell here again at 7760. Dominant pattern is one of consolidation whilst between 7600 and 7800. Rising wedge forming. 7590-7730-7650-7745-7690-7765. Thinking we have a few weeks of bouncing around above 7600 and if it holds that, probably new highs again. SPX I took a short but I’m out already.. it’s hovering above the highs now and don’t want to be on the wrong side if it breaks out. Would think it unlikely that recent choppiness just goes away, so expecting a bull trap just like last week was a bear trap. But that’s something I never try and position for would rather let it play out

  33. rd3777 says:

    The market must complete the pattern….
    NDX Futures

  34. pintopower says:

    Thanx for the update. Blessings to you Tony!

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