Tuesday Update

Hi Everyone!

Things are going well. We appreciate all your well wishes. I would like you all to know I am monitoring. I ask that you act like adults and keep it constructive. Debating is always fun but keep it positive and productive!

I’ll keep you updated as things progress.

Thanks!

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396 Responses to Tuesday Update

  1. H D says:

    cr. to Tony Caldaro

  2. scottycj1 says:

    If the cash Spx does not equal the low in futures 2704.5
    thats a bullish divergence and this is likely the low for this segment.

  3. For any bull case, 2695 area must hold or we are headed to 2590 area.
    Would love to see this resolve itself by this Friday and hit 2590 area, but may take a little longer if indeed it’s a bear set up

    Good luck all

  4. jobjas says:

    Consumer Staples

  5. cj32 says:

    cr. to CBZ

  6. phil1247 says:

    CampFreddie says:
    May 21, 2018 at 10:32 am
    Noooooooooooooooooooooo.

    Reply
    phil1247 says:
    May 21, 2018 at 10:33 am
    and freddie

    bonds working on a squeeeze …
    what do they know ?

    Reply
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…..

    bond squeeeeeezzzzzzzee continues

    guess those bond guys did know something Freddie 😉

  7. stcoleridge says:

    Kudos to aamichael.

  8. deadmoney95 yo says:

    Bless you, Tony. You lead by example. Can’t thank you enough.

    (This dip is temporary, and a yet another bear trap).

  9. chandra d says:

    for shortterm s&p will touch 2660 first then retrace to 2700 and then 2550 levels

  10. chandra d says:

    first target 2450 then 2340 levels in s&p

  11. chandra d says:

    lets welcome BEAR MARKET

  12. mcgcapital says:

    Looks like FTSE might have finally topped for now. Taken a bit more off my shorts here as seeing the potentially for a reaction-retest-rally off 7820 area (7817-7838-7820ish-up) as it’s gone oversold on the hourly now. But expecting 7850 to hold any bounces

  13. Hi…the Bull market continues. But, my habit in a Bull market.
    Is to be alert for the formation of a Bear market, The longer a Bull
    market, the more alerted I tend to be, Now, most already know.
    The SP above the recent price high (2872) is a warning level to watch.
    The key is relative strength, and the strength of the push higher….
    ….Bud

  14. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ, expand Tweet.

    • That’s all I Trade is Nvda made killing !

      But been short since Earnings $260 Level

      Nvda would have to Close Above $255 to Keep hope alive for $310

      Nvda CEO stated next Earnings will be lower than expected due to crypto mining, margins for gaming chips will be lower too.

      So interesting time

    • fionamargaret says:

      Bernstein seems unusually content in this appearance.
      I did like to see his unopened score…it was obvious he was hearing each part in his mind, and projected this assurance to the orchestra…nice x

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Sorry Fiona, once again, I must take a view contrary to yours, my work shows that silver/gold ratio tested a high of four weeks ago and failed. Other derivative indicators I follow also show topping. I’ve been shorting calls against my silver positions and long GLD call spreads.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Gary, this is Kimble’s chart.
        I post RJ and Kimble unedited, and with ideas that are not necessarily mine.
        I do not have silver bullish….yet.

  15. emuntrader says:


    Currently we are in week 17 since the January high.

  16. Theodore Lerts says:

    Big bounce up coming tomorrow. 2760.
    Here’s a hint: do opposite of what XuWu says.

  17. scottycj1 says:

    From Stockcharts

    Historical Tendencies

    We’re rapidly approaching a very bullish period of the calendar year. The May 26th through June 5th period has produced the following annualized returns:

    S&P 500 (since 1950): +28.59% (the bullish period actually runs through June 6th on the S&P 500)
    NASDAQ (since 1971): +50.66%
    Russell 2000 (since 1987): +64.49%

  18. stan911 says:

    If 2720 can hold then we could see 2756 then I have down to 2608 then 2783 after that then wait and see, if it gets rejected hard then 2355

    • stan911 says:

      Need Dow to get back over 25k if it does then we should head to 25084-25120 area if it can’t then we are ganna correct to 24050-23870 then we get a final bounce to 25240-25340 rejection from then I have 21760

      • fionamargaret says:

        ….and that is getting into the zone I think is a real possibility.
        Trader Joe has his third option considering the levels I mentioned previously…like 123’s chart, but the down leg extending further down ..
        We’ll see Stan, but I appreciate your work…

  19. emuntrader says:


    my outlook is very similar to jobjas. GL and speedy recovery for TONY.

  20. aahmichael says:

    wac308 asked me for my current view on the market, and irrespective of the slight and temporary detour that occurred yesterday because of the announced hold on “the trade war,” nothing has changed from the view I posted on May 14th. Anything north of 2740 remains the place to short, and I still expect it to produce a decline of 100+ points at a minimum. The fact that the market came back up to the shorting level yesterday/today was a gift as it produced a 2nd -D on NYMO and a daily bearish engulfing bar.

    aahmichael says:
    May 14, 2018 at 3:18 pm
    Today’s high completed a short setup for me:
    2594-2683= 89 points.
    26(55) + 89 = 2744
    Today’s high was just 2 points short of C=A, and just 1 point short of .618 of the initial 2873-2532 decline.
    Also, the 5/3-5/14 rally is an exact 8 day fractal of the 3/2-3/13 rally, along with NYMO being a mirror image of the 2/27, 3/13, and 4/18 highs, except this time it also had -D.
    Add that together with the fact that QT for May starts tomorrow, and if the 2018 price reaction pattern to QT continues, then today’s high was a top leading to a 3 week decline.

  21. cj32 says:

    Cr. to CBZ

  22. xuwu992000 says:

    Like I indicated earlier: The CHINA-U.S. trade talk very much hinged on the fate of ZTE.
    Liu He & the market were prematurely optimistic and underestimated the complexity of American politics. The Congress will be and is jumping in and its latest action will deal a huge blow to the “trust” of the negotiation. LIU & his team is in deep trouble now given what is going on in the Congress.
    The latest rebound leg has topped. [my next MAJOR turning date is fast approaching; given the shortened time window, I won’t be surprised to see some mini-crashes in the coming days].

  23. alexh110 says:

    The market seems to have gone back to the pattern where it changes trends every two days (roughly speaking).
    The final part of this Int iv correction is becoming increasingly elongated. Hopefully it will eventually complete.
    Since we now have hourly and daily -D, maybe we will see an e-wave before I die of old age!

  24. stan911 says:

    If 24900ish finds support we head higher break below that significantly then where in for a correction

  25. stan911 says:

    Looks like we head down trump announces no deal with china

    • stan911 says:

      Bad news is rolling in

    • scottycj1 says:

      That means “Negotiate Harder” to the participants

      • tommyboys says:

        Scotty you are correct. The announcement of ‘no deal’ is in itself a negotiation. The media loves to blow up anything they can and if gives them another opp to smear Trump – real of fake – they’re all over it. No worries China needs a deal more than we do. Were their biggest customer 😎

        • Exactly. The US is the leader in technology. China is the leader in stealing technology and manufacturing US technology (that the US consumers buy back). If the future is GREEN due to tech, then the US will lead the way. China needs US (pun intended) more than we need them. All we need to do is get Thor to ignite the manufacturing engine in the US, and we can leave China behind…if we wanted to.

    • SPX/NDQ are barely up and the DOW and RUS are down today.
      Unless /ES|SPX recaptures 2735-3736 and stays above, we close down.
      Still have 2 hours for that to happen and DOW/RUS to go green.

  26. CampFreddie says:

    *** Just Positioned Long in Gold @spot 1291.8 ….Well worth a look Imho.
    Will try to get some charts up later Glta.

  27. E says:

    Yes, I agree that this has become madness. It’s almost like we are in triangles, of triangles, of triangles. Seems like the market is going nowhere, yet about to explode, yet going nowhere, yet about to explode…

    • Mary773 says:

      For the last nine years, the pattern has been rally/rest/rinse/repeat. To quote the great market technician Levi Stubbs, “It’s the same old song.”

      • E says:

        Could be, but could also be something different. Like you said, it’s been NINE years and this time the bearish energy seems very strong.

        • Mary773 says:

          The market will reveal itself. If the February low is violated, there will be a lower high and a lower low, at which point the bear case becomes technically viable. Anticipating the top has destroyed so many traders over the last nine years that it might be wise to seek confirmation before getting gung ho bearish. As things stand today it is a consolidation in a bull market. When that changes, those who want to make money will change with it. The name of the game is not being right. It is remaining solvent. If the market starts trending down, good traders will emphasize shorting the rallies. But the primary trend is up until proven otherwise. If you possess technical insight that the primary uptrend has ended, I am eager to read it. No one else has made a convincing case for a bear market in stocks. Most bears just seem to have an emotional yearning for the Apocalypse.

          • E says:

            I’ve already stated my reasons to see this as the beginning of a bear market, with the most important item being FED tightening; and the second being interest rates. Although economics numbers posted recently sound good, they are not really that good compared to 2006/2007 and historically, most economic downturns start with a bear market, not the other way around. With respect to EW I would say the larger picture counts can so far still be interpreted as either bearish or bullish, so you are right that the prudent investor would wait for confirmation. On the other hand, it seems to me that bear market waves strike extremely quickly, so many would be completely underwater before receiving confirmation. That said, my bear position have started to take a pounding recently. Good luck.

            • Mary773 says:

              I share your belief that interest rates have entered a secular uptrend that will ultimately kill the bull market in stocks, but stock market tops have been accompanied by much higher rates than TYX at 3,2%. As you caution, this time could be different.

  28. fionamargaret says:

    Short. the indices…SPXS, SQQQ, SDOW, TZA…and the banks FAZ
    Long gold, gold miners, long bond UGLD, JNUG, NUGT……and VXX, UVXY
    2594

    • stan911 says:

      I think we go a little higher towards 2780 Fiona before we head south

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Not that I have any REAL belief in P&F,but stockcharts has an HYG target of 120(from current 85.60).They certainly are not reliable(see gold PO reversed from 1500 previously,to 1210 currently.They monitor and adjust as well).But if it were true about HYG,SPX would correlate to at least a 20% gain from here.
      Meanwhile,embedded streak continues for SPX,IWM and arguably NASDAQ.Also the dollar.Trend is your friend until they unembed.GL all.

    • fionamargaret says:

      TLT or TMF is the long bond.
      Oil I still have as a long to 80.
      2594 is a number introduced into the algorithm yesterday, so I hold it in some importance.

  29. mcgcapital says:

    Out of all longs on FTSE.. this is madness now. Possible round number sell at 7900 with stop at 7910.. taking that as a day trade but feels like a minor miracle is needed to get a down day on this. Really don’t enjoy trading that kind of market, so that’s me done on that one until there’s a pop in this bubble

    • CampFreddie says:

      Bubble ??? – Uk shares and Ftse-100 are as cheap as chips.

      • stcoleridge says:

        Not aiming this at you CF but you just reminded me of a guy who used to sit on a trading desk years ago. He was nicknamed Budgie because all he ever said was “it’s cheap.”

      • mcgcapital says:

        Was referring more to the fact RSI is now at 84 on the daily and the last time we had more than half a down day was 9 weeks ago than the fundamentals. Personally find that much harder to project out when it stays overbought as it’s impossible to know where the top is.. much easier to anticipate lows in a downtrend.

        As for the fundamentals, yeah valuations are relatively cheap.. but it’s been shunned by institutional for a while and for good reason. Most of the big weights are big divi payers but that’s been at the expense of dividend cover. It’s basically a play on oil, sterling and bond yields when you’re trying to predict where FTSE goes. I see sterling much higher after Brexit, plus I see recent strength in oil as temporary. Then you have rates rising generally.. all factors that will make it hard for FTSE to outperform long term IMHO, but all factors that are going the right way short term.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Nice timing on the sell McG.

      • mcgcapital says:

        Took a third off but will probably hold the rest now.. that closing auction was pretty weak, think back to 7800 maybe now as long as it holds under 7900. Bit similar to the December move when it broke 7600.. went to 7700, weak closing auction then sold off back towards 7600

    • vivelaamo says:

      Nicely done. A good example of going long at ATH’s when its a breakout. 100 points in a day!

    • That gap on the ES/SPX around 2712 is calling to get filled before we head higher.
      As we’re in a triangle, we could go up a little more before coming down on “news” and filling that gap. But that’s just a hunch as there are gaps below from 2015.
      Just watching the ticker and prices.

    • Christian Rohlinger says:

      Agree. My thought exactly

  30. chrisk44342 says:

    finally hit a target and passed through it next stop 2746

  31. Great news about tony.

    Appears above 2742 bullish, below 2712 bearish. 30 point range, see if it picks a direction or just trades sideways thru the week
    Good luck all

  32. Mary773 says:

    So you are “monitoring”, are you?
    Well, monitor this:

  33. cmparis says:

    To a master of market observation, but more importantly, a master of Self observation – Get well soon, Tony!

  34. quickrick38 says:

    Music to my ears…take care and get well soon. Our prayers are with you.

  35. pooch77 says:

    Sure do miss Tony.Get well soon

  36. Lee X says:

    Great to hear that
    Thx !

  37. Best wishes to Tony!….and thanks for the update, Christine…we’re all praying for him….my family really helped me and continues to support me…we’re a very close Italian family…

  38. searchme2017 says:

    Thank you for the update, Christine. Please tell Tony to concentrate on his health and not to think about his blog. We’ll somehow….all survive until he is able to join us again.

  39. floyd drummer says:

    nice…

    thanks christine

  40. Page says:

    Thanks Christine.

  41. It is wonderful to hear that you are not doing too badly.

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