Tuesday Update

Hi Everyone!

Things are going well. We appreciate all your well wishes. I would like you all to know I am monitoring. I ask that you act like adults and keep it constructive. Debating is always fun but keep it positive and productive!

I’ll keep you updated as things progress.

Thanks!

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396 Responses to Tuesday Update

  1. gary61b says:

    spx close 2714

  2. alexh110 says:

    As an overweight short, I feel much happier today than I did yesterday.
    The daily +D on SPX has now been violated; but the earlier -D is still in place.
    We also have a daily -D on the Dow, and both indices have seen an accelerated decline in their daily MACD histograms.
    If this develops into a stronger move down next week, I would guess it’ll take two weeks to reach the downtrend low. But with the endlessly elongating time-base on this correction, it’s hard to be sure.

    • micky says:

      Thanks for your thoughts Alex, please correct me if Im wrong with my interpretation of them. Your analysis of price is based on how the macd reacts to it. You are not sure what price is going to do, yet you are short. Somehow the above does not seem like a solid system to base ones trades on?

      • alexh110 says:

        Declining momentum and negative divergences generally lead to lower prices, especially when you have daily RSI -D on two of the major indices.
        The last daily RSI +D on SPX occurred at 2594, leading to strong rally. So I would expect the end of that uptrend to be signalled by a daily -D.

  3. fotis2 says:

    All the gurus out in force after the fact as usual at the highs they were looking for +80s and today ”Here’s why I’m Bearish oil”

    • phil1247 says:

      incorrect

      gave you the ending diagonal last week with 58 dollar target

      maybe you should be reading my posts 😉

      • fotis2 says:

        LOL did you actually manage a hit?I gave up on the 8th ”Top” you gave. Maybe You should be reading my posts so you can hit a home run now and again instead of squandering your weekly allowance on bextensions squeeeezes and swoooooshes

  4. fotis2 says:

    Hey Learned whats up?Dollar flying like a eagle Gold hasn’t moved a tick darn manipulators!

  5. fxaprendiz says:

    People new to learn to be patient on consolidations…
    The wave A of 4 that started in late January lasted 2 months, and the wave B which seems to be done was almost 2 months as well. Expect the ensuing wave C down to last one month at the very least, if not two.

    • mcgcapital says:

      It’s because most people aren’t evaluating the price action and determining which side is in control of it purely on that basis. Instead they pick a side based on a pre-conceived bias which makes it hard for them to switch sides when wrong.

      I’ve not seen any evidence to suggest that any of the following works on a consistent basis to the point extent you could bet your house on it:

      • using other indices to determine where the one you’re trading is going. E.g. small caps are at new highs therefore the rest of the market will follow. Too hit and miss as there are various reasons why from time to time one index will outperform another, it doesn’t mean one is leading another. All we can say is either everything is going up together (like last year) which is bullish.. everything is going down together (like 2008, 2015-16) which is bearish.. or some stuff is going up and others down/sideways, which means anything can happen. Just because Rut or FTSE made a new high for example doesn’t mean the wider equity market is going to be bullish going forward.

      • advance decline line, fear and greed index, investor surveys. For the most part, provides little indication of where the market’s going, but with a few exceptions at extremes. But certainly not something you can use day to day.

      • news. Enough said really, sometimes the market reacts one way and other times the opposite way on the same news. Can’t trade off that.

      • cycles. Easily the biggest BS thing I’ve seen.. if it goes up into a ‘low’ then it’s inverted or vice versa. Just doesn’t seem to have any use in making money.

      • seasonality. Ok, there are a few general things that tend to hold true such as sometime between May and October there will be a period of weakness, or in December there will be a low volume rally. But still best to ignore it as the exact timing never follows a set schedule.

      • big ups/big downs etc. Just a coincidence that when the market is trending up or down it’s likely to carry on going up or down to reach the targets. If we aren’t trending anywhere it doesn’t work, and leaves you holding trades miles offside.

      • the it’s a bull market therefore I go long crew. No evidence it still is one, might be or might not be. Can’t trade on that basis.

      • Elliot wave. I know that will be controversial saying that but you only have to see how often counts are revised to see it has no forward predictability. The people who do use it successfully are using other factors to help with their positioning and are focusing on where to get in or out of trades (execution).. e.g. if it breaks X level, then we’re in a wave 3 and I buy etc, if not then I exit the trade as an alternative count is playing out.

      I know that sounds like I’m criticising 90% of the posts on here but it’s all about admitting that it’s impossible to predict exactly where it’s going. If it’s going up (down), give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls (bears). If it’s going sideways, sell the top of the range and buy the bottom until something breaks. Focus on set ups and asking yourself where the trade is invalidated as that’s where your stop goes. It’s counterproductive to have a set plan of where it’s going. Simplicity works best as that tends to allow the most flexibility to change directions which is required if you admit you don’t know where it’s going.

      At the moment we’re in a trading range between 2550s and 2740s, and within that range a smaller one between 2700-2740. Bears look to be in control of price under 2740, and will definitely be in control below 2700, but most are looking for a breakout to the upside for no other reason than they’d already decided that’s the next move based on the above factors.

      • stcoleridge says:

        Well said.

      • fxaprendiz says:

        +++1
        Will copy-paste it for future reference

      • Mary773 says:

        I thoroughly enjoyed this well reasoned dissertation. You have convinced me that trading on the basis of statistical probability is childishly asinine. Your hypothesis is so innovative and profound that it deserves a really cool name.

        • stcoleridge says:

          Uh oh, shots fired. Just a quick question, how have all the stat arb desks on Wall Street been doing?

      • scottycj1 says:

        Daily and weekly algos still in buy mode….I stay long until that changes

  6. emuntrader says:


    Maybe the market needs a bit of excitement to get going

  7. DJT seems to have broken out.How can this not be bullish?

    • scottycj1 says:

      Transports are the canary in the coal mine. NYAD at ATH’s—-Trannies leading higher—-
      bigger cycles kick in next week……….it’s all good

  8. gary61b says:

    ES, short was at 2727 gap fill and short set up. T =2711.5

  9. scottycj1 says:

    Thanks TC…….hope your on the mend
    Cycles indicate this should be the last sideways week for the SPX. Next week starts the rally in earnest. Have a relaxing weekend.

  10. phil1247 says:

    travis and rick

    RE:
    home on the range

    long from lows failed on esm8 this am
    but short holding … so far
    soon one side will win

    have a great weekend

    and God bless Tony

  11. Theodore Lerts says:

    Range-bound day, or slow grind up at best. Big gap up next Tuesday. Should mark a local top followed by a brief pull back into late next week. Then the bull train continues. Have a good weekend.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Think Lerts has it about right. They’ll try to ramp it into the close today while crushing vol then bid it up overnight before the Tuesday open. For me that would be a great time to sell as I think 5/30 is the date for end of month QT action which will see a significant drain of liquidity. If you believe in that sort of thing of course.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …believer…and then there was Bates and Branagh…another pair of shorts I shall dream up for you at the weekend…

        • fionamargaret says:

          …and Richardson of course…
          last weeks shorts DB and GE (suggested GE in the 20’s (the price, not the year) were used on CNBC a couple of days after being mentioned…
          TLT still piques my interest (my numbers have it to 185)…I don’t think it will reach there, but interesting it is….up $3/share so far….I know, how can that be with the Fed raising rates…

  12. fionamargaret says:

    Short the indices….SPXS, SQQQ, TZA, SDOW,
    Long TMF, UVXY, VXX

    2656, 2632,…..and 2594, 2465….you think today….have a great long weekend…xxx

    • Ashley says:

      Im on board short today, I think the Q’s are done here =)

      • Ashley says:

        King $$$ and oil will take care of the rest….

      • Naz pulled back 50 percent from its day high. Beleive its the key to direction todayif it goes red, could be a down day. If it heads back up going to be a green day. Tough market. futures ripped last night. fell this morniing and now in between. My 2718 got nicked. could go either way but Naz is the key and as of this moment its heading back up so we shall see

        Good luck all have a nice weekend

  13. Mary773 says:

    Important reflex points to monitor:

  14. phil1247 says:

    CL

    looks like ending diagonal was correct call as mentioned last week

    expect rapid collapse to where it began
    ie around 58

    • Theodore Lerts says:

      I have a long-term forecast (6-12 months) pegging it at sub $40. Possibly sub $30. Not the popular position at this time by any means. Peace.

  15. phil1247 says:

    bond squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzeeee

    near targets
    time to take profits
    bonds close early today

  16. mcgcapital says:

    Still not much of a bid under this market.. FTSE heading to 7600 I think then will see what happens. Certainly seems that once the uptrend has broken a big chunk of it might be about to be unwound. Reversal above 7750 would have me cautious on shorting.. below 7690 and it should see selling accelerate

  17. emuntrader says:

    Morning thoughts. Looking for a zig-zag up to complete a 5 – wave structure. Here is a 5 min chart. It is Friday so who knows.

    • hohoho598 says:

      Have you done any research on this guy? I’ll leave it at that, cause I’m not allowed to defile this blog with obscenities. However if you want to come across to Danerics blog…

      • searchme2017 says:

        I don’t know exactly what your problem would be with Marty….but I’m sure you could tell us without cursing.

        I’ve followed him (in and out of his prison term) for over 30 years and cannot find too much to disagree with. Enlighten me…………

        • hohoho598 says:

          Dow 32500 by 2015, need I say any more.. He makes Bernie Madoff look like a small time pimp.

          • fionamargaret says:

            …depends how he got these numbers Greg. Perhaps that was the most relevant progression at the point in time of the suggestion…

            • hohoho598 says:

              Sorry Fiona, when you make predictions like that, you are trying to lure people into your way of thinking with pie in the sky dreams. Exactly the same reason he went to prison..pie in the face investment schemes.

              PS I don’t know why you call me Greg, cause I don’t answer by that name just Ho will do, although I can hear the jokes already 🙂

    • Smart Guy! I agree with him.

  18. fotis2 says:

    Gold a bit longer than a couple days
    https://invst.ly/7jx22

  19. Close above 2758 would be my preferred count. As I said Uber bullish until 2718 taken out. Giddie up

  20. cj32 says:

    • fionamargaret says:

      • fionamargaret says:

        This is a quite beautiful composition by Brahms, who wrote it while mourning the death of his mother, and Schumann’s depression and death.
        He had refused to link it to the death of Christ as requested by the clergy, preferring to link it to those left behind…”Blessed are they that mourn, for they shall be comforted”.
        He did however, perhaps to appease, add another movement which was taken from Handel’s Messiah.
        We must not forget musicians’ commissions were usually from the church or King.
        On a personal note, Brahms moved to be closer to Schumann’s wife and young children, and it was at this time he expanded upon his original work….nice x

  21. …and NK seems very apologetic for any misunderstanding.Futes up a few SPX points.It seemed like gold should have exploded higher in today’s session,but lets see how tomorrow goes(I’m not a believer).

  22. Gregg Thompson says:

    You da man Tony do well!!!

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Christine, hope Tony’s health is improving.
    Potential upside targets @ 2988 ~ 3200
    SPX ~ Still Long > YPP ~ https://www.tradingview.com/x/vx1WFJhm/
    OEXA200R ~ Bullish! ~ http://schrts.co/DXcJ3m

  24. mcgcapital says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mrs_Northy/status/999670618822971392/photo/1

    SPX looks like distribution to draw in weak hands to me. Europe has led and breaking down now. Think June might be down but just taking stuff one trade at a time, no set view on where we’re going

    • fxaprendiz says:

      I’m waiting for a SPX test and rejection of the 2750-60 zone although it might not even get there. Placed a short order at 2700 in case SPX decides to go down straight.

  25. chrisk44342 says:

    On a daily chart it looks like a bull flag

    • vivelaamo says:

      Agree. A few days of consolidation after a strong move and it’s still flat. Very bullish.

      • chrisk44342 says:

        I don’t trade or make decisions based on patterns but yeah from a traditional technical perspective that’s what it looks like.

      • pooch77 says:

        Bulls are weak can’t break out of triangle,bend over and grab your ankles

        • Ashley says:

          LOL it was the most bullish RED day I’ve seen in a while, they did somehow clear the 50 DMA on the all the indexes with the DOW struggling to do it most of the day….

        • vivelaamo says:

          Guess it’s all down to perception. You think bulls are weak because they can’t break triangle. I say bears are weak as they failed to break below may 15th low let alone close near to it.

          Risk reward favours more upside in my opinion. Good luck.

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