Weekend Update

Tony is going to be absent for a little while. There are some health concerns we are dealing with as some of you may know. For the moment he does not have access to a computer. I will keep you updated throughout the week with any news. Thank you for your patience and all the well wishes.

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150 Responses to Weekend Update

  1. vicavale says:

    Hope you are feeling better soon, Tony! Thank you!! HUGS from us all!

  2. I hope Tony’s health condition improves and stays that way. It is worriesome that this is the 2nd significant episode in 6 months.

  3. Looking for 2590 by this Friday, holidays typically end trends. Memorial Day Monday, expect the low before then then new highs

  4. torehund says:

    Nothing new on my stance, weekly macd is about to hock then smaller timeframe oscillators become noise only. Bullish on the indices. Thanks to Trump for focusing on the FBI attempting to serve as a “gossip cafe”, and being exploited by the democrats as a tool preventing any “green shots” from ever emerging. Its a sight to see, pitifull🔚

  5. lunker1 says:

    Hey, y’all cool it.

    If Tony wanted to nuke Phil he would’ve done so several months ago.

    Phil love your passion and skill but heck ya that was a boatload of posts this morning. It used to annoy me too until I learned you were actually on the ball more than most here.

    Tony is sick and people are emotional so let’s be mindful.

    Let’s find a Kumbaya here.

    • 7dayyss says:

      Three posts, is three posts. You’ve been around long enough that Tony has stated what “he” wants and expects everybody is “grown up” enough to follow his wishes. He’s not one to ban people, you can count on one hand the number of people he has banned. He’s more a “laissez-faire” kind of guy over the years when it comes to his blog, once he’s stated his rules.

      Sure he’s not going to bash/ban someone for a few extra posts, but lets be reasonable. If you’re a daytrader on a 1 or 5 min chart, we all know their can be multiple fib retracements/extensions throughout the day. If you’re going to trade them fine, but commentary for every trade or movement is ridiculous! It doesn’t make any difference how “good or bad” a trading system is, thirty plus posts a day is uncalled for. Throw in the “wannabes” and 2/3’s of the blog is DH, it ceases to be Tony’s blog. I think it’s time that you guys start posting at you’re own blogs if the posts get to be that high.

      Let’s please follow what Tony has expressed multiple times and not rationalize what we want! It really is that simple. If you need constant attention, go somewhere else, or finally grow up.

      • quickrick38 says:

        So, you would silence those who give the most? What a fool.

        • NEWBIE says:

          quickrick, +1.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Presuming you are correct Rick n your assumption of them giving the most, why would they not form their own website to establish their own authority over the market even further.
          Why do it under someone else’s name, a man who is considered the foremost authority in OEW.
          Do they have Tony’s approval for derogatory statements made? (and quite a percentage are just that).
          Tony is sick and I think we have to confront this, and settle this for him. He has made his wishes known in regards to his site.
          Thanks to everyone.

          • fionamargaret says:

            …or abide by Tony’s rules of 3 postings during market hours….
            Surely a video can be absorbed and defined in an opening statement…and that still leaves 2 to update……, with none left for erroneous material…..and we have back the site of old.x

            • Vous avez raison Fiona ! Well said !

            • quickrick38 says:

              I guess I am guilty with “What a fool”…but it was not intended as name calling but simply my expression of foolishness in the notion of silencing…as I said, “those who contribute the most”. Derogatory comments are not acceptable and I do not condone them. Personally, I’ve never seen the ‘3 post rule’ posted. And, with all due respect to Tony and others on this board, it’s not just the number of posting but also the length. Perhaps I should say,”He who is without sin cast the first stone.”

    • fotis2 says:

      Tony is a Gentleman, as such his polite demeanor has been taken advantage of by certain individuals who can’t even spell the word you more than anyone else knows this.

  6. fionamargaret says:


    Thanks Chris Kimble

    https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=d71f6bfd-aa1c-47a1-bf00-dddd51517d78&mime=pdf&co=RaymondJames&id=Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com&source=mail
    Thanks Raymond James

    Thanks and love to Tony, Christine, and all who love him….yes, everyone xx

  7. pooch77 says:

    What did you short and what are your taegets,

  8. aahmichael says:

    In light of Tony’s unfortunate illness, he isn’t able to monitor the blog. That means each of us has to monitor our own posts. Whenever this blog turns into a sewer, it’s always because people disrespect Tony’s clearly stated rules. Remember this: when you disrespect Tony’s rules, you disrespect Tony. To cut to the chase, here is the last sentence of Tony’s “Guidelines” post.

    Guidelines: how to use this site
    Posted on November 1, 2014 by tony caldaro
    And please limit your posts to three a day. thank you!

    When Tony reopened the blog in the summer of 2016, he repeated this admonition:

    comment section
    Posted on July 23, 2016 by tony caldaro
    Not interested in providing a forum for 300, 400, 500 comments a day with only about 5% real market content.
    Personally prefer to see 30, 40, 50 good quality posts, rather than hundreds with little or no content at all.
    We encourage and respect all well-reasoned alternative viewpoints, and expect all participants will do so as well. Please keep in mind this is a market blog, and not a social media blog. Posts take time to read. Do not waste everyone’s time with frivolous comments.

    When you limit yourself to 3 posts a day, then you are forced to make those posts actually say something useful. Tony now only posts 3 times a week (and sometimes less than that,) yet he says more in those 3 posts than any of you who are posting 10-40 times every single day. Show your respect and gratitude to Tony by following his wishes. If you are incapable of doing that, then go post on a different blog, or start your own blog. Thank you.

    • wac308 says:

      Amen to that aahmichael.Really enjoy your comments. Regards

      • wac308 says:

        Hey aahmichael. May I ask if your view on the market is still the same as couple weeks back….I missed a few days comments. Cheers

  9. 123 abc says:

    Christine: Thank you for the update, hope the health concerns are alleviated soon, best wishes to Tony and family. An odd post every so often would keep the blog activated and prevent the comments section from locking up.
    ____

    Still bounded by the 2731 pivot range so preference is first bearish chart.
    Targeting the 2780 pivot would give precedence to second bullish chart.


  10. H D says:

    The market gapped up at the open today. $SPX opened at 2728 rallied 10 handles to clear the 2731 pivot before sellers took it down to the 13EMA to close the day back at the 2731 Pivot. (+.74%) Short term momentum hit overbought and finished the day neutral. This continues to be an inflection pivot.

    Note: last week’s 5/15 update. “After a rally on Monday, when the SPX rose to 2742, between the 2731 pivot and the 2750 trend line resistance. The market closed under the pivot on Monday, then gapped down to open Tuesday.”

    • fionamargaret says:

      It was very interesting first thing this morning….just after the initial rally, it was like the market changed key…it went into a different number sequence and that is when I posted…shorts, and long the golds. I put bids in on numbers and was filled in every one of the shorts and longs, and did quite nicely.
      It is nice to hear a normal commentary too though…

  11. drz130 says:

    Best Wishes Tony

  12. best wishes Tony, Been out of the country for a week. Sorry to hear. Get well soon

  13. alexh110 says:

    The market still looks like it wants to go down; but I no longer think it will be a large decline.
    A weak downtrend followed by a resumption of the bull market seems more likely.

    • cmparis says:

      Dow just finish first wave of a W5 ED today and SPX now heading to sub 2600 to complete the W4 triangle?

      • alexh110 says:

        Hope you’re right: that would allow me to unwind my short positions.
        I’m not sure SPX will go down that far; although the Dow has set up a daily -D, so I guess it’s possible.

  14. Everything is bullishly embedded,but NASDAQ seems ready to give it all up in the snap of a finger.Later all.

  15. MB says:

    Sorry to hear hope he gets well soon . Health is the most important thing.

    >

  16. vivelaamo says:

    I’d never thought I’d say this I but I wonder what Golly thinks right now.

    • mcgcapital says:

      Lol.. presumably she’s bullish now. If it was the key thing that’s been holding markets back or going to make them crash, then would have expected more than a 20 point up day. Still looks like nothing has changed in that we’re supported by earnings and growth yet capped by liquidity and rising rates

  17. stcoleridge says:

    McG or AlexH, do either of you guys have anything approximating an OEW FTSE count? The one Tony used to have in his Stockcharts page went away once Russell started charging for the data. Thanks.

    • mcgcapital says:

      I don’t have a count, but would assume either Brexit would be wave 2 and Q1 2018 wave 4 with this wave 5, or 5 waves into the jan high and then wave 2 and now wave 3.

      FTSE never seems to count as cleanly as the S&P does from what I’ve seen people label. Seems like 20% of the time we have impulsive rallies and the rest is mainly choppy and corrective in both directions. Clearly this is an impulsive rally phase.. but the hard part is in the past they’ve lasted 5-6 weeks on average whereas this is 9 weeks and not looking like stopping yet. I can’t see any other precedents that look exactly like what we’re seeing now.. previous periods with long stretches of up weeks had some small gains in there. This has done a steady 1%+ every week for 9 weeks. Impressive that it’s take out 7100, 7300, 7440, 7560, 7600 and 7800 with barely a down day in between. Even more impressive considering US markets haven’t been doing that much either.

      Basically it’s bullish above 7800.. but can’t see the attraction in adding new longs when it could turn at any point. Break 7800 and we’d have a lower daily low and that’s the first sign the trend has changed. Really thought we’d break 7750 early this week after Friday but guess the algos flip into buy mode when making a new all time high above 7800

  18. soulsurfer says:

    get well soon tony!!!

  19. tommyboys says:

    Not taunting here Lee just wanna point out that IG Sunday has been very accurate with Monday open trends…

    Tommyboys on May 20, 2018 at 9:41 am

    Agree Camp. IG Sunday has been accurate as far as direction like 85% the past year. Typically they’re only up or down like 25-35 points. When they indicate a larger move in either direction they’ve been more like 100% accurate. I’ll bet Dow opens more than 200 points higher based on this…place YOUR bet…👍🏼

    • mcgcapital says:

      Except 4th February when they had prices around flat at 10.40pm when the weekend indices close before opening down nearly 1% at 11pm and 15th April when they had prices modestly lower by 10.40pm and we opened up nearly 1% at 11pm. (London time). They were off on the magnitude this time too, and were hardly going to have prices quoting down when it was clear the market would like the news and gap up

      • tommyboys says:

        Mc – come on. We’re talking “direction” here. I said it’s 85-100% correct on “direction”. Further there is ALWAYS the outlier. You gonna bet its wrong when its right 80-90% of the time – really?

  20. stcoleridge says:

    RUT outperforming again today. Was bought as a safe haven for possible trade wars and now is being bought because…?
    I guess you can eat your cake and have it too.

  21. fionamargaret says:

    2594

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